BMO High Yield US Corporate Bond (ZJK.TO): Rolling Returns

Time Period: from January 1979 to October 2024 (~46 years)
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When holding the BMO High Yield US Corporate Bond (ZJK.TO) ETF, how long should you stay invested to have high probability to achieve a positive return?

Over the selected period (~46 years), the longest duration with a negative return was 131 months (from January 1998 to November 2008).

This indicates that, within the same timeframe, any rolling period of 132 months or more has consistently resulted in a positive return.

Understanding this metric is crucial as it highlights the importance of a safe investment horizon. Knowing the minimum duration required to likely see positive returns helps investors set realistic expectations and reinforces the strategy of staying invested through market cycles. This approach can mitigate the emotional reactions to short-term market fluctuations and enhance the likelihood of achieving financial goals.

Previous vs subsequent Returns

Is there a correlation between past and future returns over all 10-year rolling periods?

The following chart illustrates the relationship between past returns (x-axis) and subsequent returns (y-axis).

Data points are aggregated to show occurrences, and you can zoom in by clicking or drawing over the desired area.

BMO HIGH YIELD US CORPORATE BOND (ZJK.TO) ETF
Previous vs Next Returns - 10 Years annualized
Time Period: 1 November 1994 - 31 October 2024 (30 Years)
Time Period: 1 January 1979 - 31 October 2024 (~46 years)

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As of Oct 31, 2024, the annualized return of the previous 10 years has been 5.73%.

Rolling Returns

A rolling return is a measure of investment performance that calculates the return of an investment over a set period of time, with the starting date rolling forward. This approach can provide a more accurate representation of the investment's historical performance and helps investors to evaluate the investment's consistency over time.

BMO HIGH YIELD US CORPORATE BOND (ZJK.TO) ETF
Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Returns - Inflation Adjusted
Time Period: 1 November 1994 - 31 October 2024 (30 Years)
Time Period: 1 January 1979 - 31 October 2024 (~46 years)
Canada Inflation Adjusted:

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Rolling Period Analysis

By selecting the 'Rolling Period', the chart and data will update. To study a different date range, change the simulation settings.

BMO HIGH YIELD US CORPORATE BOND (ZJK.TO) ETF
Rolling Returns Chart
Rolling Returns Chart - Inflation Adjusted
Time Period: 1 January 1979 - 31 October 2024 (~46 years)
Canada Inflation Adjusted:

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Swipe left to see all data
Worst Median Best Negative Periods
-18.93%
Mar 2007 - Feb 2008
+7.24% +38.99%
Oct 1981 - Sep 1982
20.41%
110 out of 539
-20.38%
Mar 2007 - Feb 2008
+4.17% +30.54%
Feb 1991 - Jan 1992
34.32%
185 out of 539
-11.30%
Dec 2006 - Nov 2008
+6.59% +29.30%
Oct 1981 - Sep 1983
13.66%
72 out of 527
-13.22%
Dec 2006 - Nov 2008
+4.24% +25.84%
Feb 1991 - Jan 1993
33.02%
174 out of 527
-5.88%
Dec 2005 - Nov 2008
+7.49% +26.54%
Nov 1990 - Oct 1993
13.59%
70 out of 515
-7.67%
Dec 2005 - Nov 2008
+4.17% +24.43%
Feb 1991 - Jan 1994
30.29%
156 out of 515
-4.15%
Dec 2004 - Nov 2008
+7.97% +23.96%
Mar 1982 - Feb 1986
8.75%
44 out of 503
-6.55%
Nov 1986 - Oct 1990
+4.66% +18.57%
Feb 1991 - Jan 1995
28.43%
143 out of 503
-3.35%
Dec 2003 - Nov 2008
+8.13% +23.29%
Oct 1981 - Sep 1986
6.52%
32 out of 491
-5.29%
Dec 2003 - Nov 2008
+5.56% +17.71%
Feb 1991 - Jan 1996
24.44%
120 out of 491
-3.39%
Dec 2002 - Nov 2008
+8.19% +19.73%
Apr 1980 - Mar 1986
5.64%
27 out of 479
-5.26%
Dec 2002 - Nov 2008
+5.27% +15.43%
Feb 1991 - Jan 1997
20.67%
99 out of 479
-2.99%
Dec 2001 - Nov 2008
+8.54% +18.27%
Mar 1980 - Feb 1987
4.07%
19 out of 467
-5.18%
Dec 2001 - Nov 2008
+4.97% +16.18%
Feb 1991 - Jan 1998
16.27%
76 out of 467
-1.71%
Apr 2001 - Mar 2009
+8.31% +17.05%
Dec 1990 - Nov 1998
3.08%
14 out of 455
-3.66%
Apr 2001 - Mar 2009
+5.63% +15.21%
Feb 1991 - Jan 1999
15.16%
69 out of 455
-1.26%
Dec 1999 - Nov 2008
+8.25% +14.78%
Nov 1990 - Oct 1999
2.71%
12 out of 443
-3.41%
Dec 1999 - Nov 2008
+5.67% +12.76%
Dec 1990 - Nov 1999
12.42%
55 out of 443
-1.35%
Dec 1998 - Nov 2008
+7.84% +13.87%
Nov 1990 - Oct 2000
1.39%
6 out of 431
-3.49%
Dec 1998 - Nov 2008
+5.26% +11.86%
Feb 1991 - Jan 2001
12.99%
56 out of 431
+0.06%
Dec 1997 - Nov 2008
+7.48% +14.24%
Oct 1981 - Sep 1992
0.00%
0 out of 419
-2.02%
Dec 1997 - Nov 2008
+5.06% +11.06%
Feb 1991 - Jan 2002
11.69%
49 out of 419
+1.32%
Aug 1998 - Jul 2010
+6.95% +14.96%
Oct 1981 - Sep 1993
0.00%
0 out of 407
-0.74%
Apr 1999 - Mar 2011
+4.77% +10.04%
Oct 1981 - Sep 1993
7.13%
29 out of 407
+1.45%
Aug 1998 - Jul 2011
+6.89% +13.99%
Mar 1981 - Feb 1994
0.00%
0 out of 395
-0.67%
Sep 1998 - Aug 2011
+4.75% +9.37%
Oct 1981 - Sep 1994
3.29%
13 out of 395
+2.28%
Aug 1998 - Jul 2012
+6.67% +13.99%
Oct 1981 - Sep 1995
0.00%
0 out of 383
+0.20%
Sep 1998 - Aug 2012
+4.63% +9.60%
Oct 1981 - Sep 1995
0.00%
0 out of 383
+2.82%
Aug 1998 - Jul 2013
+6.43% +13.80%
Oct 1981 - Sep 1996
0.00%
0 out of 371
+0.80%
Aug 1998 - Jul 2013
+4.34% +9.60%
Oct 1981 - Sep 1996
0.00%
0 out of 371
+3.36%
Aug 1998 - Jul 2014
+5.80% +13.89%
Oct 1981 - Sep 1997
0.00%
0 out of 359
+1.32%
Aug 1998 - Jul 2014
+3.86% +9.92%
Feb 1982 - Jan 1998
0.00%
0 out of 359
+3.94%
Apr 1999 - Mar 2016
+5.52% +14.06%
Oct 1981 - Sep 1998
0.00%
0 out of 347
+1.94%
Apr 1999 - Mar 2016
+3.53% +10.19%
Oct 1981 - Sep 1998
0.00%
0 out of 347
+4.00%
Apr 2002 - Mar 2020
+5.82% +13.33%
Sep 1980 - Aug 1998
0.00%
0 out of 335
+2.00%
Jul 2004 - Jun 2022
+3.70% +9.33%
Oct 1981 - Sep 1999
0.00%
0 out of 335
+3.85%
Apr 2001 - Mar 2020
+5.77% +13.14%
Apr 1980 - Mar 1999
0.00%
0 out of 323
+2.01%
Apr 2001 - Mar 2020
+3.68% +9.05%
Oct 1981 - Sep 2000
0.00%
0 out of 323
+4.02%
May 2002 - Apr 2022
+6.05% +12.37%
Jan 1979 - Dec 1998
0.00%
0 out of 311
+1.84%
Jul 2002 - Jun 2022
+3.79% +8.54%
Nov 1981 - Oct 2001
0.00%
0 out of 311
+3.89%
Aug 1998 - Jul 2023
+6.62% +10.25%
Mar 1980 - Feb 2005
0.00%
0 out of 251
+1.64%
Aug 1998 - Jul 2023
+4.27% +6.47%
Feb 1982 - Jan 2007
0.00%
0 out of 251
+5.26%
Nov 1993 - Oct 2023
+7.19% +8.53%
Mar 1980 - Feb 2010
0.00%
0 out of 191
+3.13%
Nov 1993 - Oct 2023
+4.82% +5.70%
Nov 1990 - Oct 2020
0.00%
0 out of 191
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