BMO Gold Bullion ETF CAD Units (ZGLD.TO): Rolling Returns

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Period: August 1953 - May 2025 (~72 years)
Currency: CAD
Inflation: Canada
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When holding the BMO Gold Bullion ETF CAD Units (ZGLD.TO) ETF, how long should you stay invested to have high probability to achieve a positive return?

Over the selected period (~72 years), the longest duration with a negative return was 333 months (from February 1980 to October 2007).

This indicates that, within the same timeframe, any rolling period of 334 months or more has consistently resulted in a positive return.

Understanding this metric is crucial as it highlights the importance of a safe investment horizon. Knowing the minimum duration required to likely see positive returns helps investors set realistic expectations and reinforces the strategy of staying invested through market cycles. This approach can mitigate the emotional reactions to short-term market fluctuations and enhance the likelihood of achieving financial goals.

Previous vs subsequent Returns

Is there a correlation between past and future returns over all 10-year rolling periods?

The following chart illustrates the relationship between past returns (x-axis) and subsequent returns (y-axis).

Data points are aggregated to show occurrences, and you can zoom in by clicking or drawing over the desired area.

BMO GOLD BULLION ETF CAD UNITS (ZGLD.TO) ETF
Previous vs Next Returns - 10 Years annualized
Time Period: 1 June 1995 - 31 May 2025 (30 Years)
Time Period: 1 August 1953 - 31 May 2025 (~72 years)

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As of May 31, 2025, the annualized return of the previous 10 years has been 11.35%.

Rolling Returns

A rolling return is a measure of investment performance that calculates the return of an investment over a set period of time, with the starting date rolling forward. This approach can provide a more accurate representation of the investment's historical performance and helps investors to evaluate the investment's consistency over time.

BMO GOLD BULLION ETF CAD UNITS (ZGLD.TO) ETF
Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Returns - Inflation Adjusted
Time Period: 1 June 1995 - 31 May 2025 (30 Years)
Time Period: 1 August 1953 - 31 May 2025 (~72 years)
Canada Inflation Adjusted:

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Rolling Period Analysis

By selecting the 'Rolling Period', the chart and data will update. To study a different date range, change the simulation settings.

BMO GOLD BULLION ETF CAD UNITS (ZGLD.TO) ETF
Rolling Returns Chart
Rolling Returns Chart - Inflation Adjusted
Time Period: 1 August 1953 - 31 May 2025 (~72 years)
Canada Inflation Adjusted:

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Swipe left to see all data
Worst Median Best Negative Periods
-38.06%
Sep 1975 - Aug 1976
+2.61% +173.34%
Feb 1979 - Jan 1980
35.72%
304 out of 851
-42.75%
Apr 1981 - Mar 1982
+0.50% +149.14%
Feb 1979 - Jan 1980
48.06%
409 out of 851
-26.64%
Jul 1980 - Jun 1982
+3.15% +98.18%
Feb 1978 - Jan 1980
34.21%
287 out of 839
-34.52%
Jul 1980 - Jun 1982
+0.86% +81.60%
Feb 1978 - Jan 1980
46.13%
387 out of 839
-13.82%
Nov 1980 - Oct 1983
+3.18% +78.49%
Feb 1977 - Jan 1980
30.11%
249 out of 827
-21.08%
Nov 1980 - Oct 1983
+0.76% +63.62%
Feb 1977 - Jan 1980
46.92%
388 out of 827
-12.88%
Jan 1981 - Dec 1984
+4.07% +63.47%
Sep 1976 - Aug 1980
22.58%
184 out of 815
-19.02%
Feb 1980 - Jan 1984
+1.37% +49.53%
Sep 1976 - Aug 1980
41.23%
336 out of 815
-11.78%
Feb 1980 - Jan 1985
+3.62% +39.89%
Oct 1975 - Sep 1980
22.17%
178 out of 803
-18.39%
Feb 1980 - Jan 1985
+1.24% +28.82%
Jan 1970 - Dec 1974
39.85%
320 out of 803
-7.31%
Jul 1980 - Jun 1986
+3.40% +33.99%
Feb 1974 - Jan 1980
19.60%
155 out of 791
-13.29%
Feb 1980 - Jan 1986
+0.70% +22.74%
Feb 1974 - Jan 1980
41.09%
325 out of 791
-4.88%
Feb 1980 - Jan 1987
+3.06% +41.80%
Feb 1973 - Jan 1980
19.51%
152 out of 779
-11.08%
Feb 1980 - Jan 1987
+0.37% +29.87%
Feb 1973 - Jan 1980
44.29%
345 out of 779
-5.80%
Oct 1980 - Sep 1988
+4.18% +41.45%
Feb 1972 - Jan 1980
17.99%
138 out of 767
-11.14%
Oct 1980 - Sep 1988
+1.72% +30.09%
Feb 1972 - Jan 1980
44.72%
343 out of 767
-6.35%
Oct 1980 - Sep 1989
+4.60% +39.34%
Feb 1971 - Jan 1980
17.62%
133 out of 755
-11.59%
Oct 1980 - Sep 1989
+2.25% +28.67%
Feb 1971 - Jan 1980
41.85%
316 out of 755
-5.92%
Jul 1980 - Jun 1990
+5.10% +35.68%
Oct 1970 - Sep 1980
16.02%
119 out of 743
-11.20%
Jul 1980 - Jun 1990
+2.15% +25.63%
Feb 1970 - Jan 1980
39.97%
297 out of 743
-5.83%
Oct 1980 - Sep 1991
+5.43% +30.85%
Dec 1969 - Nov 1980
13.13%
96 out of 731
-10.94%
Oct 1980 - Sep 1991
+2.04% +21.25%
Dec 1969 - Nov 1980
37.07%
271 out of 731
-4.92%
Jul 1980 - Jun 1992
+6.35% +28.27%
Feb 1968 - Jan 1980
11.54%
83 out of 719
-10.23%
Feb 1980 - Jan 1992
+2.69% +19.85%
Feb 1968 - Jan 1980
34.91%
251 out of 719
-4.49%
Feb 1980 - Jan 1993
+6.74% +26.08%
Oct 1967 - Sep 1980
10.89%
77 out of 707
-9.57%
Feb 1980 - Jan 1993
+3.19% +17.80%
Feb 1967 - Jan 1980
33.24%
235 out of 707
-2.93%
Feb 1980 - Jan 1994
+7.22% +24.03%
Oct 1966 - Sep 1980
12.81%
89 out of 695
-7.81%
Feb 1980 - Jan 1994
+3.62% +16.20%
Feb 1966 - Jan 1980
32.81%
228 out of 695
-2.71%
Oct 1980 - Sep 1995
+7.32% +22.24%
Oct 1965 - Sep 1980
12.88%
88 out of 683
-7.04%
Feb 1980 - Jan 1995
+4.11% +14.80%
Feb 1965 - Jan 1980
31.92%
218 out of 683
-2.53%
Oct 1980 - Sep 1996
+7.36% +20.74%
Oct 1964 - Sep 1980
13.41%
90 out of 671
-6.61%
Oct 1980 - Sep 1996
+4.40% +13.67%
Feb 1964 - Jan 1980
28.61%
192 out of 671
-3.22%
Dec 1980 - Nov 1997
+7.38% +19.39%
Oct 1963 - Sep 1980
12.29%
81 out of 659
-7.13%
Feb 1980 - Jan 1997
+4.29% +12.73%
Feb 1963 - Jan 1980
25.95%
171 out of 659
-3.04%
Mar 1980 - Feb 1998
+7.39% +18.30%
Feb 1962 - Jan 1980
10.51%
68 out of 647
-7.08%
Mar 1980 - Feb 1998
+4.28% +12.03%
Feb 1962 - Jan 1980
23.96%
155 out of 647
-3.52%
Jul 1980 - Jun 1999
+7.28% +17.52%
Feb 1961 - Jan 1980
8.19%
52 out of 635
-7.25%
Jul 1980 - Jun 1999
+4.32% +11.62%
Feb 1961 - Jan 1980
22.99%
146 out of 635
-3.14%
Oct 1980 - Sep 2000
+7.24% +16.69%
Oct 1960 - Sep 1980
6.26%
39 out of 623
-6.88%
Feb 1980 - Jan 2000
+4.13% +11.02%
Feb 1960 - Jan 1980
21.83%
136 out of 623
-1.51%
Feb 1980 - Jan 2005
+6.25% +13.24%
Feb 1955 - Jan 1980
2.31%
13 out of 563
-5.08%
Feb 1980 - Jan 2005
+3.51% +8.42%
Feb 1955 - Jan 1980
18.12%
102 out of 563
+1.32%
Feb 1980 - Jan 2010
+6.02% +10.29%
Dec 1957 - Nov 1987
0.00%
0 out of 503
-2.05%
Feb 1980 - Jan 2010
+2.62% +4.92%
Jun 1995 - May 2025
8.75%
44 out of 503
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