When holding the Amundi US Treasury Bond 0-1Y EUR Hedged (PR1H.DE) ETF, how long should you stay invested to have high probability to achieve a positive return?

Over the selected period (~77 years), the longest duration with a negative return was 184 months (from February 2008 to May 2023).

This indicates that, within the same timeframe, any rolling period of 185 months or more has consistently resulted in a positive return.

Understanding this metric is crucial as it highlights the importance of a safe investment horizon. Knowing the minimum duration required to likely see positive returns helps investors set realistic expectations and reinforces the strategy of staying invested through market cycles. This approach can mitigate the emotional reactions to short-term market fluctuations and enhance the likelihood of achieving financial goals.

Previous vs subsequent Returns

Is there a correlation between past and future returns over all 10-year rolling periods?

The following chart illustrates the relationship between past returns (x-axis) and subsequent returns (y-axis).

Data points are aggregated to show occurrences, and you can zoom in by clicking or drawing over the desired area.

AMUNDI US TREASURY BOND 0-1Y EUR HEDGED (PR1H.DE) ETF
Previous vs Next Returns - 10 Years annualized
Time Period: 1 July 1996 - 30 June 2026 (30 Years)
Time Period: 1 January 1950 - 30 June 2026 (~77 years)
30 Years
(1996/07 - 2026/06)
All Data
(1950/01 - 2026/06)

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As of Jun 30, 2026, the annualized return of the previous 10 years has been 0.45%.

Rolling Returns

A rolling return is a measure of investment performance that calculates the return of an investment over a set period of time, with the starting date rolling forward. This approach can provide a more accurate representation of the investment's historical performance and helps investors to evaluate the investment's consistency over time.

AMUNDI US TREASURY BOND 0-1Y EUR HEDGED (PR1H.DE) ETF
Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Returns - Inflation Adjusted
Time Period: 1 July 1996 - 30 June 2026 (30 Years)
Time Period: 1 January 1950 - 30 June 2026 (~77 years)
30 Years
(1996/07 - 2026/06)
All Data
(1950/01 - 2026/06)
Eurozone Inflation Adjusted:

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Rolling Period Analysis

By selecting the 'Rolling Period', the chart and data will update. To study a different date range, change the simulation settings.

AMUNDI US TREASURY BOND 0-1Y EUR HEDGED (PR1H.DE) ETF
Rolling Returns Chart
Rolling Returns Chart - Inflation Adjusted
Time Period: 1 January 1950 - 30 June 2026 (~77 years)
Over Time
Histogram
Eurozone Inflation Adjusted:

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Swipe left to see all data
Worst Median Best Negative Periods
-1.81%
Nov 2021 - Oct 2022
+3.85% +9.34%
Sep 1991 - Aug 1992
12.68%
115 out of 907
-11.24%
Nov 2021 - Oct 2022
+1.09% +7.44%
Jan 1952 - Dec 1952
30.76%
279 out of 907
-1.34%
Oct 2020 - Sep 2022
+3.99% +9.10%
Apr 1991 - Mar 1993
12.51%
112 out of 895
-8.06%
Dec 2020 - Nov 2022
+1.09% +5.93%
Jun 1951 - May 1953
30.39%
272 out of 895
-0.98%
Nov 2019 - Oct 2022
+4.08% +8.74%
Jul 1990 - Jun 1993
12.23%
108 out of 883
-5.76%
Oct 2020 - Sep 2023
+1.16% +5.27%
Jan 1951 - Dec 1953
32.05%
283 out of 883
-0.84%
Nov 2018 - Oct 2022
+4.24% +8.39%
Oct 1989 - Sep 1993
11.71%
102 out of 871
-4.60%
Mar 2019 - Feb 2023
+1.09% +4.51%
Jul 1989 - Jun 1993
33.07%
288 out of 871
-0.78%
Nov 2017 - Oct 2022
+4.24% +7.94%
May 1989 - Apr 1994
11.29%
97 out of 859
-4.07%
Nov 2017 - Oct 2022
+1.14% +4.35%
May 1989 - Apr 1994
31.66%
272 out of 859
-0.77%
Nov 2016 - Oct 2022
+4.34% +7.49%
Jun 1989 - May 1995
11.10%
94 out of 847
-3.74%
Nov 2016 - Oct 2022
+1.24% +4.03%
Jun 1989 - May 1995
29.75%
252 out of 847
-0.74%
Nov 2015 - Oct 2022
+4.41% +7.14%
Mar 1989 - Feb 1996
10.78%
90 out of 835
-3.51%
Mar 2016 - Feb 2023
+1.32% +3.82%
May 1989 - Apr 1996
28.38%
237 out of 835
-0.72%
Nov 2014 - Oct 2022
+4.43% +6.78%
Mar 1989 - Feb 1997
10.57%
87 out of 823
-3.14%
Mar 2015 - Feb 2023
+1.21% +3.79%
May 1985 - Apr 1993
28.19%
232 out of 823
-0.69%
Nov 2013 - Oct 2022
+4.44% +6.46%
Feb 1989 - Jan 1998
9.74%
79 out of 811
-2.84%
Sep 2014 - Aug 2023
+1.13% +3.79%
Apr 1985 - Mar 1994
27.25%
221 out of 811
-0.61%
Nov 2012 - Oct 2022
+4.54% +6.20%
Oct 1988 - Sep 1998
9.14%
73 out of 799
-2.63%
Sep 2013 - Aug 2023
+1.13% +3.68%
Jul 1984 - Jun 1994
26.78%
214 out of 799
-0.52%
Dec 2011 - Nov 2022
+4.57% +6.07%
Sep 1984 - Aug 1995
7.88%
62 out of 787
-2.53%
Nov 2011 - Oct 2022
+1.11% +3.58%
Feb 1985 - Jan 1996
25.41%
200 out of 787
-0.42%
Nov 2010 - Oct 2022
+4.59% +6.03%
Sep 1981 - Aug 1993
6.71%
52 out of 775
-2.51%
Nov 2010 - Oct 2022
+1.12% +3.50%
Jan 1984 - Dec 1995
22.84%
177 out of 775
-0.36%
Nov 2009 - Oct 2022
+4.59% +6.07%
Feb 1981 - Jan 1994
5.11%
39 out of 763
-2.43%
Mar 2010 - Feb 2023
+1.14% +3.44%
Apr 1985 - Mar 1998
22.41%
171 out of 763
-0.27%
Mar 2009 - Feb 2023
+4.62% +6.11%
Mar 1980 - Feb 1994
3.73%
28 out of 751
-2.33%
Oct 2009 - Sep 2023
+1.14% +3.38%
Mar 1985 - Feb 1999
21.97%
165 out of 751
-0.10%
Oct 2008 - Sep 2023
+4.68% +6.06%
Feb 1980 - Jan 1995
2.57%
19 out of 739
-2.10%
May 2009 - Apr 2024
+1.19% +3.33%
Feb 1984 - Jan 1999
20.84%
154 out of 739
+0.14%
Sep 2007 - Aug 2023
+4.65% +6.01%
Feb 1980 - Jan 1996
0.00%
0 out of 727
-1.95%
Sep 2007 - Aug 2023
+1.19% +3.25%
Feb 1983 - Jan 1999
20.22%
147 out of 727
+0.27%
Feb 2009 - Jan 2026
+4.65% +5.92%
Mar 1979 - Feb 1996
0.00%
0 out of 715
-1.87%
May 2009 - Apr 2026
+1.17% +3.19%
Feb 1982 - Jan 1999
19.02%
136 out of 715
+0.37%
Mar 2005 - Feb 2023
+4.65% +5.82%
Mar 1979 - Feb 1997
0.00%
0 out of 703
-1.68%
May 2005 - Apr 2023
+1.19% +3.06%
Aug 1981 - Jul 1999
17.78%
125 out of 703
+0.43%
Mar 2004 - Feb 2023
+4.64% +5.73%
Mar 1979 - Feb 1998
0.00%
0 out of 691
-1.63%
Oct 2004 - Sep 2023
+1.19% +2.95%
Feb 1982 - Jan 2001
17.08%
118 out of 691
+0.49%
Mar 2003 - Feb 2023
+4.63% +5.62%
Jan 1979 - Dec 1998
0.00%
0 out of 679
-1.58%
Sep 2003 - Aug 2023
+1.24% +2.87%
Feb 1982 - Jan 2002
16.49%
112 out of 679
+0.96%
Jul 2001 - Jun 2026
+4.73% +5.64%
Nov 1969 - Oct 1994
0.00%
0 out of 619
-1.16%
May 2001 - Apr 2026
+1.38% +2.36%
Mar 1980 - Feb 2005
12.28%
76 out of 619
+1.38%
Jul 1996 - Jun 2026
+4.70% +5.42%
Jan 1966 - Dec 1995
0.00%
0 out of 559
-0.67%
Jul 1996 - Jun 2026
+1.53% +2.02%
Mar 1980 - Feb 2010
8.94%
50 out of 559
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