Consolidated Returns as of 30 June 2024
Holding the Value Stock Geek Weird Portfolio, how long should you stay invested to have high probability to obtain a positive return?
Considering all the available data source (~50 years), the longest period with a negative return lasted 47 months (from December 2019 to October 2023).
This means that every rolling period of 48 months or above has always granted a positive return.
To obtain comprehensive information, please consult the Value Stock Geek Weird Portfolio: ETF allocation and returns page.
Previous vs subsequent Returns
Considering all 10-year rolling periods, is there a relationship between past and future returns, at a given date?
In the following chart, we show how past returns (x-axis) and subsequent returns (y-axis) are related.
Neighboring data is aggregated and occurrences are indicated. It is possible to zoom by clicking or drawing the desired area
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The annualized return of the last 10 years has been 4.92% (updated at Jun 30, 2024).
Rolling Returns
A rolling return is a measure of investment performance that calculates the return of an investment over a set period of time, with the starting date rolling forward. This approach can provide a more accurate representation of the investment's historical performance and helps investors to evaluate the investment's consistency over time.
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Annualized Rolling Returns - 1 Year (12 months)
Median | Best | Worst | Negative Periods | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Annualized Rolling Return | +10.34% |
+55.54%
Jul 1982 - Jun 1983 |
-29.40%
Mar 2008 - Feb 2009 |
14.58%
85 out of 583 |
US Inflation Adjusted | +7.25% |
+51.78%
Jul 1982 - Jun 1983 |
-29.41%
Mar 2008 - Feb 2009 |
22.47%
131 out of 583 |
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Annualized Rolling Returns - 2 Years (24 months)
Median | Best | Worst | Negative Periods | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Annualized Rolling Return | +9.75% |
+35.34%
Feb 1978 - Jan 1980 |
-16.08%
Mar 2007 - Feb 2009 |
7.53%
43 out of 571 |
US Inflation Adjusted | +7.21% |
+31.99%
Mar 2009 - Feb 2011 |
-17.77%
Mar 2007 - Feb 2009 |
15.76%
90 out of 571 |
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Annualized Rolling Returns - 3 Years (36 months)
Median | Best | Worst | Negative Periods | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Annualized Rolling Return | +9.95% |
+30.06%
Aug 1984 - Jul 1987 |
-6.05%
Mar 2006 - Feb 2009 |
2.33%
13 out of 559 |
US Inflation Adjusted | +6.74% |
+26.25%
Aug 1984 - Jul 1987 |
-8.05%
Mar 2006 - Feb 2009 |
10.91%
61 out of 559 |
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Annualized Rolling Returns - 4 Years (48 months)
Median | Best | Worst | Negative Periods | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Annualized Rolling Return | +9.32% |
+27.67%
Jul 1982 - Jun 1986 |
+0.00%
Nov 2019 - Oct 2023 |
0.00%
0 out of 547 |
US Inflation Adjusted | +6.29% |
+23.89%
Jul 1982 - Jun 1986 |
-4.37%
Nov 2019 - Oct 2023 |
4.39%
24 out of 547 |
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Annualized Rolling Returns - 5 Years (60 months)
Median | Best | Worst | Negative Periods | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Annualized Rolling Return | +9.32% |
+26.51%
Aug 1982 - Jul 1987 |
+2.09%
Oct 2017 - Sep 2022 |
0.00%
0 out of 535 |
US Inflation Adjusted | +6.32% |
+22.66%
Aug 1982 - Jul 1987 |
-1.60%
Oct 2017 - Sep 2022 |
1.50%
8 out of 535 |
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Annualized Rolling Returns - 6 Years (72 months)
Median | Best | Worst | Negative Periods | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Annualized Rolling Return | +9.69% |
+22.61%
Jan 1975 - Dec 1980 |
+2.15%
Nov 2017 - Oct 2023 |
0.00%
0 out of 523 |
US Inflation Adjusted | +6.83% |
+18.10%
Jul 1982 - Jun 1988 |
-1.54%
Nov 2017 - Oct 2023 |
0.96%
5 out of 523 |
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Annualized Rolling Returns - 7 Years (84 months)
Median | Best | Worst | Negative Periods | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Annualized Rolling Return | +9.71% |
+20.75%
Aug 1982 - Jul 1989 |
+3.14%
Oct 2016 - Sep 2023 |
0.00%
0 out of 511 |
US Inflation Adjusted | +7.05% |
+16.60%
Aug 1982 - Jul 1989 |
-0.37%
Oct 2016 - Sep 2023 |
0.39%
2 out of 511 |
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Annualized Rolling Returns - 8 Years (96 months)
Median | Best | Worst | Negative Periods | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Annualized Rolling Return | +9.76% |
+19.99%
Dec 1978 - Nov 1986 |
+3.97%
Nov 2015 - Oct 2023 |
0.00%
0 out of 499 |
US Inflation Adjusted | +7.39% |
+13.70%
Oct 1981 - Sep 1989 |
+0.68%
Nov 2015 - Oct 2023 |
0.00%
0 out of 499 |
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Annualized Rolling Returns - 9 Years (108 months)
Median | Best | Worst | Negative Periods | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Annualized Rolling Return | +10.07% |
+20.43%
Mar 1978 - Feb 1987 |
+3.85%
Nov 2014 - Oct 2023 |
0.00%
0 out of 487 |
US Inflation Adjusted | +7.46% |
+12.99%
Mar 1978 - Feb 1987 |
+0.90%
Nov 2014 - Oct 2023 |
0.00%
0 out of 487 |
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Annualized Rolling Returns - 10 Years (120 months)
Median | Best | Worst | Negative Periods | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Annualized Rolling Return | +10.42% |
+20.34%
Sep 1976 - Aug 1986 |
+4.21%
Nov 2013 - Oct 2023 |
0.00%
0 out of 475 |
US Inflation Adjusted | +7.63% |
+12.84%
Sep 1977 - Aug 1987 |
+1.38%
Nov 2013 - Oct 2023 |
0.00%
0 out of 475 |
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Annualized Rolling Returns - 11 Years (132 months)
Median | Best | Worst | Negative Periods | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Annualized Rolling Return | +10.48% |
+20.36%
Sep 1976 - Aug 1987 |
+4.65%
Nov 2012 - Oct 2023 |
0.00%
0 out of 463 |
US Inflation Adjusted | +7.50% |
+13.04%
Sep 1976 - Aug 1987 |
+1.99%
Nov 2012 - Oct 2023 |
0.00%
0 out of 463 |
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Annualized Rolling Returns - 12 Years (144 months)
Median | Best | Worst | Negative Periods | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Annualized Rolling Return | +10.54% |
+19.90%
Oct 1975 - Sep 1987 |
+5.05%
Nov 2011 - Oct 2023 |
0.00%
0 out of 451 |
US Inflation Adjusted | +7.44% |
+12.71%
Oct 1975 - Sep 1987 |
+2.42%
Nov 2011 - Oct 2023 |
0.00%
0 out of 451 |
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Annualized Rolling Returns - 13 Years (156 months)
Median | Best | Worst | Negative Periods | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Annualized Rolling Return | +10.48% |
+18.50%
Jan 1975 - Dec 1987 |
+5.62%
Nov 2010 - Oct 2023 |
0.00%
0 out of 439 |
US Inflation Adjusted | +7.62% |
+11.42%
Jan 1975 - Dec 1987 |
+2.90%
Nov 2010 - Oct 2023 |
0.00%
0 out of 439 |
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Annualized Rolling Returns - 14 Years (168 months)
Median | Best | Worst | Negative Periods | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Annualized Rolling Return | +10.35% |
+18.10%
Jan 1975 - Dec 1988 |
+6.52%
Oct 1987 - Sep 2001 |
0.00%
0 out of 427 |
US Inflation Adjusted | +7.52% |
+11.29%
Oct 1975 - Sep 1989 |
+3.22%
Oct 1987 - Sep 2001 |
0.00%
0 out of 427 |
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Annualized Rolling Returns - 15 Years (180 months)
Median | Best | Worst | Negative Periods | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Annualized Rolling Return | +10.38% |
+17.77%
Jan 1975 - Dec 1989 |
+5.80%
Nov 2007 - Oct 2022 |
0.00%
0 out of 415 |
US Inflation Adjusted | +7.47% |
+10.99%
Jan 1975 - Dec 1989 |
+3.34%
Nov 2007 - Oct 2022 |
0.00%
0 out of 415 |
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Annualized Rolling Returns - 16 Years (192 months)
Median | Best | Worst | Negative Periods | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Annualized Rolling Return | +10.27% |
+15.79%
Oct 1975 - Sep 1991 |
+5.41%
Nov 2007 - Oct 2023 |
0.00%
0 out of 403 |
US Inflation Adjusted | +7.51% |
+9.54%
Jul 1982 - Jun 1998 |
+2.90%
Nov 2007 - Oct 2023 |
0.00%
0 out of 403 |
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Annualized Rolling Returns - 17 Years (204 months)
Median | Best | Worst | Negative Periods | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Annualized Rolling Return | +10.13% |
+15.91%
Jan 1975 - Dec 1991 |
+5.85%
Nov 2006 - Oct 2023 |
0.00%
0 out of 391 |
US Inflation Adjusted | +7.50% |
+9.67%
Nov 1976 - Oct 1993 |
+3.27%
Nov 2006 - Oct 2023 |
0.00%
0 out of 391 |
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Annualized Rolling Returns - 18 Years (216 months)
Median | Best | Worst | Negative Periods | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Annualized Rolling Return | +10.07% |
+15.90%
Oct 1975 - Sep 1993 |
+6.47%
May 2006 - Apr 2024 |
0.00%
0 out of 379 |
US Inflation Adjusted | +7.26% |
+9.78%
Oct 1975 - Sep 1993 |
+3.87%
May 2006 - Apr 2024 |
0.00%
0 out of 379 |
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Annualized Rolling Returns - 19 Years (228 months)
Median | Best | Worst | Negative Periods | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Annualized Rolling Return | +10.12% |
+15.87%
Jan 1975 - Dec 1993 |
+7.21%
Nov 2004 - Oct 2023 |
0.00%
0 out of 367 |
US Inflation Adjusted | +7.27% |
+9.72%
Jan 1975 - Dec 1993 |
+4.55%
Nov 2004 - Oct 2023 |
0.00%
0 out of 367 |
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Annualized Rolling Returns - 20 Years (240 months)
Median | Best | Worst | Negative Periods | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Annualized Rolling Return | +10.12% |
+14.78%
Jan 1975 - Dec 1994 |
+7.38%
Mar 1989 - Feb 2009 |
0.00%
0 out of 355 |
US Inflation Adjusted | +7.30% |
+8.92%
Oct 1975 - Sep 1995 |
+4.42%
Mar 1989 - Feb 2009 |
0.00%
0 out of 355 |
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To obtain comprehensive information, please consult the Value Stock Geek Weird Portfolio: ETF allocation and returns page.