Value Stock Geek Weird Portfolio: Rolling Returns

Data Source: from January 1975 to March 2024 (~49 years)
Consolidated Returns as of 31 March 2024

Holding the Value Stock Geek Weird Portfolio, how long should you stay invested to have high probability to obtain a positive return?

Considering all the available data source (~49 years), the longest period with a negative return lasted 47 months (from December 2019 to October 2023).

This means that every rolling period of 48 months or above has always granted a positive return.

To obtain comprehensive information, please consult the Value Stock Geek Weird Portfolio: ETF allocation and returns page.

Previous vs subsequent Returns

Considering all 10-year rolling periods, is there a relationship between past and future returns, at a given date?

In the following chart, we show how past returns (x-axis) and subsequent returns (y-axis) are related.

Neighboring data is aggregated and occurrences are indicated. It is possible to zoom by clicking or drawing the desired area

VALUE STOCK GEEK WEIRD PORTFOLIO
Previous vs Next Returns - 10 Years annualized
Updated to March 2024

The annualized return of the last 10 years has been 5.43% (updated at Mar 31, 2024).

Rolling Returns

A rolling return is a measure of investment performance that calculates the return of an investment over a set period of time, with the starting date rolling forward. This approach can provide a more accurate representation of the investment's historical performance and helps investors to evaluate the investment's consistency over time.

VALUE STOCK GEEK WEIRD PORTFOLIO
Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Returns - Inflation Adjusted
Data Source: 1 April 1994 - 31 March 2024 (30 Years)
Data Source: 1 January 1975 - 31 March 2024 (~49 years)
Inflation Adjusted:

Annualized Rolling Returns - 1 Year (12 months)

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Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return +10.35% +55.54%
Jul 1982 - Jun 1983
-29.40%
Mar 2008 - Feb 2009
14.66%
85 out of 580
US Inflation Adjusted +7.25% +51.78%
Jul 1982 - Jun 1983
-29.41%
Mar 2008 - Feb 2009
22.41%
130 out of 580
1 Year Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month
1 Year Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

Annualized Rolling Returns - 2 Years (24 months)

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Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return +9.76% +35.34%
Feb 1978 - Jan 1980
-16.08%
Mar 2007 - Feb 2009
7.39%
42 out of 568
US Inflation Adjusted +7.21% +31.99%
Mar 2009 - Feb 2011
-17.77%
Mar 2007 - Feb 2009
15.49%
88 out of 568
2 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month
2 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

Annualized Rolling Returns - 3 Years (36 months)

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Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return +9.96% +30.06%
Aug 1984 - Jul 1987
-6.05%
Mar 2006 - Feb 2009
1.80%
10 out of 556
US Inflation Adjusted +6.76% +26.25%
Aug 1984 - Jul 1987
-8.05%
Mar 2006 - Feb 2009
10.43%
58 out of 556
3 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month
3 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

Annualized Rolling Returns - 4 Years (48 months)

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Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return +9.35% +27.67%
Jul 1982 - Jun 1986
+0.00%
Nov 2019 - Oct 2023
0.00%
0 out of 544
US Inflation Adjusted +6.29% +23.89%
Jul 1982 - Jun 1986
-4.37%
Nov 2019 - Oct 2023
3.86%
21 out of 544
4 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month
4 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

Annualized Rolling Returns - 5 Years (60 months)

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Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return +9.33% +26.51%
Aug 1982 - Jul 1987
+2.09%
Oct 2017 - Sep 2022
0.00%
0 out of 532
US Inflation Adjusted +6.32% +22.66%
Aug 1982 - Jul 1987
-1.60%
Oct 2017 - Sep 2022
1.50%
8 out of 532
5 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month
5 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

Annualized Rolling Returns - 6 Years (72 months)

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Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return +9.71% +22.61%
Jan 1975 - Dec 1980
+2.15%
Nov 2017 - Oct 2023
0.00%
0 out of 520
US Inflation Adjusted +6.84% +18.10%
Jul 1982 - Jun 1988
-1.54%
Nov 2017 - Oct 2023
0.96%
5 out of 520
6 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month
6 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

Annualized Rolling Returns - 7 Years (84 months)

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Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return +9.78% +20.75%
Aug 1982 - Jul 1989
+3.14%
Oct 2016 - Sep 2023
0.00%
0 out of 508
US Inflation Adjusted +7.10% +16.60%
Aug 1982 - Jul 1989
-0.37%
Oct 2016 - Sep 2023
0.39%
2 out of 508
7 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month
7 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

Annualized Rolling Returns - 8 Years (96 months)

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Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return +9.82% +19.99%
Dec 1978 - Nov 1986
+3.97%
Nov 2015 - Oct 2023
0.00%
0 out of 496
US Inflation Adjusted +7.41% +13.70%
Oct 1981 - Sep 1989
+0.68%
Nov 2015 - Oct 2023
0.00%
0 out of 496
8 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month
8 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

Annualized Rolling Returns - 9 Years (108 months)

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Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return +10.13% +20.43%
Mar 1978 - Feb 1987
+3.85%
Nov 2014 - Oct 2023
0.00%
0 out of 484
US Inflation Adjusted +7.46% +12.99%
Mar 1978 - Feb 1987
+0.90%
Nov 2014 - Oct 2023
0.00%
0 out of 484
9 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month
9 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

Annualized Rolling Returns - 10 Years (120 months)

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Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return +10.44% +20.34%
Sep 1976 - Aug 1986
+4.21%
Nov 2013 - Oct 2023
0.00%
0 out of 472
US Inflation Adjusted +7.64% +12.84%
Sep 1977 - Aug 1987
+1.38%
Nov 2013 - Oct 2023
0.00%
0 out of 472
10 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month
10 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

Annualized Rolling Returns - 11 Years (132 months)

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Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return +10.62% +20.36%
Sep 1976 - Aug 1987
+4.65%
Nov 2012 - Oct 2023
0.00%
0 out of 460
US Inflation Adjusted +7.50% +13.04%
Sep 1976 - Aug 1987
+1.99%
Nov 2012 - Oct 2023
0.00%
0 out of 460
11 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month
11 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

Annualized Rolling Returns - 12 Years (144 months)

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Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return +10.56% +19.90%
Oct 1975 - Sep 1987
+5.05%
Nov 2011 - Oct 2023
0.00%
0 out of 448
US Inflation Adjusted +7.45% +12.71%
Oct 1975 - Sep 1987
+2.42%
Nov 2011 - Oct 2023
0.00%
0 out of 448
12 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month
12 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

Annualized Rolling Returns - 13 Years (156 months)

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Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return +10.49% +18.50%
Jan 1975 - Dec 1987
+5.62%
Nov 2010 - Oct 2023
0.00%
0 out of 436
US Inflation Adjusted +7.63% +11.42%
Jan 1975 - Dec 1987
+2.90%
Nov 2010 - Oct 2023
0.00%
0 out of 436
13 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month
13 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

Annualized Rolling Returns - 14 Years (168 months)

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Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return +10.35% +18.10%
Jan 1975 - Dec 1988
+6.52%
Oct 1987 - Sep 2001
0.00%
0 out of 424
US Inflation Adjusted +7.53% +11.29%
Oct 1975 - Sep 1989
+3.22%
Oct 1987 - Sep 2001
0.00%
0 out of 424
14 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month
14 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

Annualized Rolling Returns - 15 Years (180 months)

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Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return +10.38% +17.77%
Jan 1975 - Dec 1989
+5.80%
Nov 2007 - Oct 2022
0.00%
0 out of 412
US Inflation Adjusted +7.48% +10.99%
Jan 1975 - Dec 1989
+3.34%
Nov 2007 - Oct 2022
0.00%
0 out of 412
15 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month
15 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

Annualized Rolling Returns - 16 Years (192 months)

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Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return +10.28% +15.79%
Oct 1975 - Sep 1991
+5.41%
Nov 2007 - Oct 2023
0.00%
0 out of 400
US Inflation Adjusted +7.53% +9.54%
Jul 1982 - Jun 1998
+2.90%
Nov 2007 - Oct 2023
0.00%
0 out of 400
16 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month
16 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

Annualized Rolling Returns - 17 Years (204 months)

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Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return +10.13% +15.91%
Jan 1975 - Dec 1991
+5.85%
Nov 2006 - Oct 2023
0.00%
0 out of 388
US Inflation Adjusted +7.51% +9.67%
Nov 1976 - Oct 1993
+3.27%
Nov 2006 - Oct 2023
0.00%
0 out of 388
17 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month
17 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

Annualized Rolling Returns - 18 Years (216 months)

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Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return +10.07% +15.90%
Oct 1975 - Sep 1993
+6.78%
Feb 2006 - Jan 2024
0.00%
0 out of 376
US Inflation Adjusted +7.27% +9.78%
Oct 1975 - Sep 1993
+4.19%
Mar 2006 - Feb 2024
0.00%
0 out of 376
18 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month
18 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

Annualized Rolling Returns - 19 Years (228 months)

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Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return +10.12% +15.87%
Jan 1975 - Dec 1993
+7.21%
Nov 2004 - Oct 2023
0.00%
0 out of 364
US Inflation Adjusted +7.28% +9.72%
Jan 1975 - Dec 1993
+4.55%
Nov 2004 - Oct 2023
0.00%
0 out of 364
19 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month
19 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

Annualized Rolling Returns - 20 Years (240 months)

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Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return +10.12% +14.78%
Jan 1975 - Dec 1994
+7.38%
Mar 1989 - Feb 2009
0.00%
0 out of 352
US Inflation Adjusted +7.30% +8.92%
Oct 1975 - Sep 1995
+4.42%
Mar 1989 - Feb 2009
0.00%
0 out of 352
20 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month
20 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

To obtain comprehensive information, please consult the Value Stock Geek Weird Portfolio: ETF allocation and returns page.