Warren Buffett Portfolio: Rolling Returns

Simulation Settings
Period: January 1871 - June 2025 (~155 years)
Initial Amount: 1$
Rebalancing: at every Jan 1st
Currency: USD
Inflation: US
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When holding the Warren Buffett Portfolio, how long should you stay invested to have high probability to achieve a positive return?

Over the selected period (~155 years), the longest duration with a negative return was 181 months (from September 1929 to September 1944).

This indicates that, within the same timeframe, any rolling period of 182 months or more has consistently resulted in a positive return.

Understanding this metric is crucial as it highlights the importance of a safe investment horizon. Knowing the minimum duration required to likely see positive returns helps investors set realistic expectations and reinforces the strategy of staying invested through market cycles. This approach can mitigate the emotional reactions to short-term market fluctuations and enhance the likelihood of achieving financial goals.

Previous vs subsequent Returns

Is there a correlation between past and future returns over all 10-year rolling periods?

The following chart illustrates the relationship between past returns (x-axis) and subsequent returns (y-axis).

Data points are aggregated to show occurrences, and you can zoom in by clicking or drawing over the desired area.

WARREN BUFFETT PORTFOLIO
Previous vs Next Returns - 10 Years annualized
Time Period: 1 July 1995 - 30 June 2025 (30 Years)
Time Period: 1 January 1871 - 30 June 2025 (~155 years)
30 Years
(1995/07 - 2025/06)
All Data
(1871/01 - 2025/06)

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As of Jun 30, 2025, the annualized return of the previous 10 years has been 12.44%.

Rolling Returns

A rolling return is a measure of investment performance that calculates the return of an investment over a set period of time, with the starting date rolling forward. This approach can provide a more accurate representation of the investment's historical performance and helps investors to evaluate the investment's consistency over time.

WARREN BUFFETT PORTFOLIO
Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Returns - Inflation Adjusted
Time Period: 1 July 1995 - 30 June 2025 (30 Years)
Time Period: 1 January 1871 - 30 June 2025 (~155 years)
30 Years
(1995/07 - 2025/06)
All Data
(1871/01 - 2025/06)
US Inflation Adjusted:

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Rolling Period Analysis

By selecting the 'Rolling Period', the chart and data will update. To study a different date range, change the simulation settings.

WARREN BUFFETT PORTFOLIO
Rolling Returns Chart
Rolling Returns Chart - Inflation Adjusted
Time Period: 1 January 1871 - 30 June 2025 (~155 years)
Over Time
Histogram
US Inflation Adjusted:

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Swipe left to see all data
Worst Median Best Negative Periods
-62.67%
Jul 1931 - Jun 1932
+10.45% +136.47%
Jul 1932 - Jun 1933
26.59%
490 out of 1843
-58.55%
Jul 1931 - Jun 1932
+7.99% +153.23%
Jul 1932 - Jun 1933
30.55%
563 out of 1843
-49.69%
Jun 1930 - May 1932
+9.72% +48.91%
Jul 1932 - Jun 1934
19.33%
354 out of 1831
-44.12%
Jun 1930 - May 1932
+7.18% +50.02%
Jul 1932 - Jun 1934
25.40%
465 out of 1831
-38.18%
Jul 1929 - Jun 1932
+9.31% +38.25%
Mar 1933 - Feb 1936
14.73%
268 out of 1819
-33.28%
Jul 1929 - Jun 1932
+7.16% +36.46%
Sep 1926 - Aug 1929
20.29%
369 out of 1819
-24.37%
Mar 1929 - Feb 1933
+8.98% +36.54%
Jul 1932 - Jun 1936
11.57%
209 out of 1807
-19.84%
Jun 1928 - May 1932
+6.96% +36.04%
Jul 1932 - Jun 1936
19.42%
351 out of 1807
-15.40%
Sep 1929 - Aug 1934
+9.03% +31.40%
Jun 1932 - May 1937
8.80%
158 out of 1795
-11.56%
Jan 1916 - Dec 1920
+6.86% +30.21%
Sep 1924 - Aug 1929
17.77%
319 out of 1795
-10.56%
Apr 1929 - Mar 1935
+9.01% +28.33%
Sep 1923 - Aug 1929
5.16%
92 out of 1783
-9.68%
Oct 1968 - Sep 1974
+6.64% +28.08%
Sep 1923 - Aug 1929
14.64%
261 out of 1783
-5.83%
Jul 1925 - Jun 1932
+8.86% +23.55%
Feb 1922 - Jan 1929
3.11%
55 out of 1771
-7.74%
Oct 1967 - Sep 1974
+6.58% +23.35%
Feb 1922 - Jan 1929
12.42%
220 out of 1771
-6.60%
Apr 1930 - Mar 1938
+8.42% +25.90%
Sep 1921 - Aug 1929
1.76%
31 out of 1759
-6.17%
Aug 1912 - Jul 1920
+6.63% +26.26%
Sep 1921 - Aug 1929
12.34%
217 out of 1759
-5.59%
Apr 1929 - Mar 1938
+8.20% +21.30%
Sep 1920 - Aug 1929
2.12%
37 out of 1747
-5.98%
Apr 2000 - Mar 2009
+6.75% +23.47%
Sep 1920 - Aug 1929
11.73%
205 out of 1747
-4.04%
Sep 1929 - Aug 1939
+8.26% +19.46%
Jun 1949 - May 1959
2.13%
37 out of 1735
-4.82%
Jul 1911 - Jun 1921
+6.58% +18.97%
Jun 1920 - May 1930
11.01%
191 out of 1735
-3.72%
Sep 1929 - Aug 1940
+8.23% +18.53%
Sep 1918 - Aug 1929
1.57%
27 out of 1723
-3.77%
Aug 1909 - Jul 1920
+6.74% +17.28%
Sep 1918 - Aug 1929
12.19%
210 out of 1723
-3.30%
May 1930 - Apr 1942
+8.36% +17.94%
Dec 1987 - Nov 1999
1.52%
26 out of 1711
-2.95%
Sep 1909 - Aug 1921
+6.73% +15.63%
Jun 1949 - May 1961
9.88%
169 out of 1711
-3.51%
Sep 1929 - Aug 1942
+8.21% +17.98%
Aug 1942 - Jul 1955
0.94%
16 out of 1699
-3.15%
Sep 1929 - Aug 1942
+6.58% +15.04%
Dec 1948 - Nov 1961
7.71%
131 out of 1699
-0.90%
Sep 1929 - Aug 1943
+8.17% +18.61%
May 1942 - Apr 1956
0.77%
13 out of 1687
-2.39%
Aug 1968 - Jul 1982
+6.60% +14.33%
May 1942 - Apr 1956
5.63%
95 out of 1687
-0.02%
Sep 1929 - Aug 1944
+8.09% +18.28%
Aug 1982 - Jul 1997
0.06%
1 out of 1675
-2.12%
Jan 1906 - Dec 1920
+6.47% +14.42%
Aug 1982 - Jul 1997
4.66%
78 out of 1675
+1.34%
Sep 1929 - Aug 1945
+7.96% +18.25%
Aug 1982 - Jul 1998
0.00%
0 out of 1663
-1.36%
Mar 1966 - Feb 1982
+6.42% +14.51%
Aug 1982 - Jul 1998
2.95%
49 out of 1663
+1.57%
Oct 1929 - Sep 1946
+7.86% +18.37%
Jul 1982 - Jun 1999
0.00%
0 out of 1651
-1.23%
Aug 1965 - Jul 1982
+6.27% +14.69%
Jul 1982 - Jun 1999
1.15%
19 out of 1651
+1.61%
Sep 1929 - Aug 1947
+8.00% +17.86%
Apr 1982 - Mar 2000
0.00%
0 out of 1639
-0.96%
Aug 1964 - Jul 1982
+6.23% +14.05%
Aug 1982 - Jul 2000
1.04%
17 out of 1639
+1.98%
Sep 1929 - Aug 1948
+7.91% +17.15%
Apr 1980 - Mar 1999
0.00%
0 out of 1627
-0.74%
Jul 1901 - Jun 1920
+6.23% +12.93%
Oct 1981 - Sep 2000
0.98%
16 out of 1627
+1.98%
Sep 1929 - Aug 1949
+7.82% +17.11%
Apr 1980 - Mar 2000
0.00%
0 out of 1615
-0.43%
Jul 1901 - Jun 1921
+6.39% +12.76%
Apr 1980 - Mar 2000
0.12%
2 out of 1615
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