Vanguard LifeStrategy Moderate Growth To EUR Portfolio: Rolling Returns

Time Period: from January 1976 to October 2024 (~49 years)
Rebalancing: at every Jan 1st
Currency: EUR
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When holding the Vanguard LifeStrategy Moderate Growth To EUR Portfolio, how long should you stay invested to have high probability to achieve a positive return?

Over the selected period (~49 years), the longest duration with a negative return was 111 months (from December 1999 to February 2009).

This indicates that, within the same timeframe, any rolling period of 112 months or more has consistently resulted in a positive return.

Understanding this metric is crucial as it highlights the importance of a safe investment horizon. Knowing the minimum duration required to likely see positive returns helps investors set realistic expectations and reinforces the strategy of staying invested through market cycles. This approach can mitigate the emotional reactions to short-term market fluctuations and enhance the likelihood of achieving financial goals.

Previous vs subsequent Returns

Is there a correlation between past and future returns over all 10-year rolling periods?

The following chart illustrates the relationship between past returns (x-axis) and subsequent returns (y-axis).

Data points are aggregated to show occurrences, and you can zoom in by clicking or drawing over the desired area.

VANGUARD LIFESTRATEGY MODERATE GROWTH TO EUR PORTFOLIO
Previous vs Next Returns - 10 Years annualized
Time Period: 1 November 1994 - 31 October 2024 (30 Years)
Time Period: 1 January 1976 - 31 October 2024 (~49 years)

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As of Oct 31, 2024, the annualized return of the previous 10 years has been 6.66%.

Rolling Returns

A rolling return is a measure of investment performance that calculates the return of an investment over a set period of time, with the starting date rolling forward. This approach can provide a more accurate representation of the investment's historical performance and helps investors to evaluate the investment's consistency over time.

VANGUARD LIFESTRATEGY MODERATE GROWTH TO EUR PORTFOLIO
Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Returns - Inflation Adjusted
Time Period: 1 November 1994 - 31 October 2024 (30 Years)
Time Period: 1 January 1976 - 31 October 2024 (~49 years)
Euro Inflation Adjusted:

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Rolling Period Analysis

By selecting the 'Rolling Period', the chart and data will update. To study a different date range, change the simulation settings.

VANGUARD LIFESTRATEGY MODERATE GROWTH TO EUR PORTFOLIO
Rolling Returns Chart
Rolling Returns Chart - Inflation Adjusted
Time Period: 1 January 1976 - 31 October 2024 (~49 years)
Euro Inflation Adjusted:

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Swipe left to see all data
Worst Median Best Negative Periods
-20.64%
Mar 2008 - Feb 2009
+8.37% +43.41%
Aug 1982 - Jul 1983
17.57%
101 out of 575
-22.17%
Nov 2007 - Oct 2008
+5.87% +39.42%
Aug 1982 - Jul 1983
25.57%
147 out of 575
-12.77%
Oct 2000 - Sep 2002
+8.67% +25.56%
Feb 1982 - Jan 1984
10.48%
59 out of 563
-14.61%
Oct 2000 - Sep 2002
+6.26% +23.27%
Jun 1984 - May 1986
18.83%
106 out of 563
-9.03%
Apr 2000 - Mar 2003
+8.68% +25.05%
Jul 1982 - Jun 1985
8.35%
46 out of 551
-11.12%
Apr 2000 - Mar 2003
+6.09% +22.03%
Jul 1982 - Jun 1985
17.79%
98 out of 551
-3.63%
Sep 2000 - Aug 2004
+8.63% +23.05%
Jun 1982 - May 1986
4.82%
26 out of 539
-5.72%
Sep 2000 - Aug 2004
+6.28% +20.48%
Jun 1982 - May 1986
11.13%
60 out of 539
-1.30%
May 2000 - Apr 2005
+8.23% +20.22%
Aug 1982 - Jul 1987
1.33%
7 out of 527
-3.48%
May 2000 - Apr 2005
+6.29% +18.47%
Aug 1982 - Jul 1987
6.64%
35 out of 527
+0.75%
Sep 2000 - Aug 2006
+8.25% +20.17%
Apr 1980 - Mar 1986
0.00%
0 out of 515
-1.43%
Sep 2000 - Aug 2006
+6.22% +16.20%
Apr 1980 - Mar 1986
1.94%
10 out of 515
-0.58%
Mar 2002 - Feb 2009
+8.43% +17.96%
Apr 1980 - Mar 1987
0.40%
2 out of 503
-2.62%
Mar 2002 - Feb 2009
+6.51% +15.04%
Aug 1982 - Jul 1989
3.18%
16 out of 503
-0.72%
Mar 2001 - Feb 2009
+8.37% +16.23%
Sep 1992 - Aug 2000
1.22%
6 out of 491
-2.90%
Nov 2000 - Oct 2008
+6.54% +13.85%
Sep 1992 - Aug 2000
3.87%
19 out of 491
-1.11%
Apr 2000 - Mar 2009
+8.29% +15.86%
Sep 1980 - Aug 1989
1.04%
5 out of 479
-3.18%
Apr 2000 - Mar 2009
+6.40% +12.99%
Sep 1980 - Aug 1989
3.55%
17 out of 479
+1.26%
Apr 1999 - Mar 2009
+8.44% +15.00%
Nov 1979 - Oct 1989
0.00%
0 out of 467
-0.84%
Apr 1999 - Mar 2009
+6.44% +12.22%
Nov 1990 - Oct 2000
3.43%
16 out of 467
+1.51%
Sep 2000 - Aug 2011
+8.37% +14.01%
Apr 1980 - Mar 1991
0.00%
0 out of 455
-0.56%
Sep 2000 - Aug 2011
+6.54% +11.33%
Aug 1982 - Jul 1993
1.10%
5 out of 455
+2.59%
May 2000 - Apr 2012
+8.43% +13.96%
Feb 1982 - Jan 1994
0.00%
0 out of 443
+0.37%
May 2000 - Apr 2012
+6.27% +11.18%
Feb 1982 - Jan 1994
0.00%
0 out of 443
+2.82%
Sep 2000 - Aug 2013
+8.16% +13.54%
Feb 1981 - Jan 1994
0.00%
0 out of 431
+0.75%
Sep 2000 - Aug 2013
+5.93% +10.43%
Feb 1981 - Jan 1994
0.00%
0 out of 431
+3.44%
Apr 2000 - Mar 2014
+7.84% +13.92%
Feb 1980 - Jan 1994
0.00%
0 out of 419
+1.39%
Apr 2000 - Mar 2014
+5.65% +10.57%
Feb 1980 - Jan 1994
0.00%
0 out of 419
+3.92%
Sep 2000 - Aug 2015
+7.99% +13.89%
Aug 1982 - Jul 1997
0.00%
0 out of 407
+2.07%
Sep 2000 - Aug 2015
+5.63% +11.27%
Aug 1982 - Jul 1997
0.00%
0 out of 407
+4.03%
Apr 2000 - Mar 2016
+7.70% +13.53%
Apr 1982 - Mar 1998
0.00%
0 out of 395
+2.24%
Apr 2000 - Mar 2016
+5.39% +10.94%
Jul 1982 - Jun 1998
0.00%
0 out of 395
+4.21%
Sep 2000 - Aug 2017
+7.36% +13.59%
Jul 1982 - Jun 1999
0.00%
0 out of 383
+2.46%
Sep 2000 - Aug 2017
+5.33% +11.14%
Jul 1982 - Jun 1999
0.00%
0 out of 383
+4.26%
Apr 2000 - Mar 2018
+7.48% +13.84%
Apr 1982 - Mar 2000
0.00%
0 out of 371
+2.49%
Nov 2000 - Oct 2018
+5.44% +11.29%
Apr 1982 - Mar 2000
0.00%
0 out of 371
+4.23%
Jan 2000 - Dec 2018
+7.47% +13.49%
May 1980 - Apr 1999
0.00%
0 out of 359
+2.46%
Jan 2000 - Dec 2018
+5.42% +10.78%
Nov 1981 - Oct 2000
0.00%
0 out of 359
+4.14%
Apr 2000 - Mar 2020
+7.56% +14.05%
Apr 1980 - Mar 2000
0.00%
0 out of 347
+2.45%
Apr 2000 - Mar 2020
+5.42% +11.15%
Apr 1980 - Mar 2000
0.00%
0 out of 347
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