US Stocks To EUR Portfolio: Rolling Returns

Simulation Settings
Period: August 1953 - January 2025 (~72 years)
Currency: EUR
Inflation: Eurozone
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When holding the US Stocks To EUR Portfolio, how long should you stay invested to have high probability to achieve a positive return?

Over the selected period (~72 years), the longest duration with a negative return was 154 months (from April 2000 to January 2013).

This indicates that, within the same timeframe, any rolling period of 155 months or more has consistently resulted in a positive return.

Understanding this metric is crucial as it highlights the importance of a safe investment horizon. Knowing the minimum duration required to likely see positive returns helps investors set realistic expectations and reinforces the strategy of staying invested through market cycles. This approach can mitigate the emotional reactions to short-term market fluctuations and enhance the likelihood of achieving financial goals.

Previous vs subsequent Returns

Is there a correlation between past and future returns over all 10-year rolling periods?

The following chart illustrates the relationship between past returns (x-axis) and subsequent returns (y-axis).

Data points are aggregated to show occurrences, and you can zoom in by clicking or drawing over the desired area.

US STOCKS TO EUR PORTFOLIO
Previous vs Next Returns - 10 Years annualized
Time Period: 1 February 1995 - 31 January 2025 (30 Years)
Time Period: 1 August 1953 - 31 January 2025 (~72 years)

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As of Jan 31, 2025, the annualized return of the previous 10 years has been 14.37%.

Rolling Returns

A rolling return is a measure of investment performance that calculates the return of an investment over a set period of time, with the starting date rolling forward. This approach can provide a more accurate representation of the investment's historical performance and helps investors to evaluate the investment's consistency over time.

US STOCKS TO EUR PORTFOLIO
Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Returns - Inflation Adjusted
Time Period: 1 February 1995 - 31 January 2025 (30 Years)
Time Period: 1 August 1953 - 31 January 2025 (~72 years)
Eurozone Inflation Adjusted:

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Rolling Period Analysis

By selecting the 'Rolling Period', the chart and data will update. To study a different date range, change the simulation settings.

US STOCKS TO EUR PORTFOLIO
Rolling Returns Chart
Rolling Returns Chart - Inflation Adjusted
Time Period: 1 August 1953 - 31 January 2025 (~72 years)
Eurozone Inflation Adjusted:

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Swipe left to see all data
Worst Median Best Negative Periods
-39.37%
Apr 2002 - Mar 2003
+12.75% +86.10%
Aug 1982 - Jul 1983
24.79%
210 out of 847
-40.78%
Apr 2002 - Mar 2003
+9.85% +80.93%
Aug 1982 - Jul 1983
29.40%
249 out of 847
-28.57%
Jan 1973 - Dec 1974
+11.74% +45.99%
Sep 1998 - Aug 2000
15.45%
129 out of 835
-33.12%
Jan 1973 - Dec 1974
+9.17% +43.73%
Sep 1998 - Aug 2000
21.56%
180 out of 835
-19.85%
Apr 2000 - Mar 2003
+11.38% +41.53%
Jul 1980 - Jun 1983
13.97%
115 out of 823
-21.70%
Apr 2000 - Mar 2003
+8.29% +37.94%
Apr 1995 - Mar 1998
18.96%
156 out of 823
-12.68%
Sep 2000 - Aug 2004
+11.37% +35.50%
Sep 1996 - Aug 2000
14.06%
114 out of 811
-15.71%
Jan 1971 - Dec 1974
+8.67% +33.49%
Sep 1996 - Aug 2000
20.72%
168 out of 811
-8.49%
Oct 1969 - Sep 1974
+11.85% +34.19%
Apr 1995 - Mar 2000
12.64%
101 out of 799
-13.50%
Oct 1969 - Sep 1974
+8.82% +32.07%
Apr 1995 - Mar 2000
21.65%
173 out of 799
-7.94%
Oct 1968 - Sep 1974
+11.16% +31.91%
Mar 1979 - Feb 1985
9.91%
78 out of 787
-12.51%
Jan 1969 - Dec 1974
+8.58% +27.01%
Nov 1994 - Oct 2000
20.33%
160 out of 787
-8.07%
Mar 2002 - Feb 2009
+11.18% +29.62%
Mar 1978 - Feb 1985
7.74%
60 out of 775
-9.96%
Mar 2002 - Feb 2009
+8.32% +24.42%
Mar 1978 - Feb 1985
17.29%
134 out of 775
-7.33%
Mar 2001 - Feb 2009
+10.77% +26.75%
Sep 1992 - Aug 2000
5.11%
39 out of 763
-9.28%
Mar 2001 - Feb 2009
+8.05% +24.15%
Sep 1992 - Aug 2000
17.30%
132 out of 763
-8.00%
Apr 2000 - Mar 2009
+10.77% +24.35%
Jan 1991 - Dec 1999
6.26%
47 out of 751
-9.92%
Apr 2000 - Mar 2009
+8.25% +21.38%
Jan 1991 - Dec 1999
16.25%
122 out of 751
-4.48%
Sep 2000 - Aug 2010
+10.50% +24.59%
Nov 1990 - Oct 2000
5.55%
41 out of 739
-6.37%
Sep 2000 - Aug 2010
+8.14% +21.68%
Nov 1990 - Oct 2000
15.29%
113 out of 739
-3.62%
Sep 2000 - Aug 2011
+10.56% +21.72%
Jan 1975 - Dec 1985
4.95%
36 out of 727
-5.58%
Sep 2000 - Aug 2011
+8.02% +17.11%
Jan 1975 - Dec 1985
15.96%
116 out of 727
-0.93%
Nov 2000 - Oct 2012
+10.70% +20.77%
Jan 1988 - Dec 1999
2.24%
16 out of 715
-3.03%
Nov 2000 - Oct 2012
+8.21% +17.74%
Jan 1988 - Dec 1999
13.57%
97 out of 715
+0.15%
Sep 2000 - Aug 2013
+10.62% +19.99%
Oct 1974 - Sep 1987
0.00%
0 out of 703
-2.34%
Jan 1962 - Dec 1974
+8.06% +16.50%
Nov 1987 - Oct 2000
7.82%
55 out of 703
+1.53%
Apr 2000 - Mar 2014
+10.56% +17.58%
Oct 1974 - Sep 1988
0.00%
0 out of 691
-0.79%
Jan 1961 - Dec 1974
+7.93% +14.31%
Oct 1986 - Sep 2000
3.33%
23 out of 691
+2.77%
Jan 1960 - Dec 1974
+10.26% +18.44%
Oct 1974 - Sep 1989
0.00%
0 out of 679
-0.72%
Jan 1960 - Dec 1974
+7.65% +14.76%
Mar 2009 - Feb 2024
0.44%
3 out of 679
+3.29%
May 2000 - Apr 2016
+10.16% +17.44%
Apr 1982 - Mar 1998
0.00%
0 out of 667
-0.03%
Jan 1959 - Dec 1974
+7.21% +14.69%
Apr 1982 - Mar 1998
0.15%
1 out of 667
+3.61%
Sep 2000 - Aug 2017
+10.06% +17.77%
Jul 1982 - Jun 1999
0.00%
0 out of 655
+0.40%
Dec 1961 - Nov 1978
+6.84% +15.22%
Jul 1982 - Jun 1999
0.00%
0 out of 655
+4.09%
Apr 2000 - Mar 2018
+9.71% +18.71%
Apr 1980 - Mar 1998
0.00%
0 out of 643
+1.33%
Nov 1961 - Oct 1979
+6.46% +15.66%
Apr 1982 - Mar 2000
0.00%
0 out of 643
+4.54%
Jan 2000 - Dec 2018
+9.63% +18.50%
Jul 1980 - Jun 1999
0.00%
0 out of 631
+1.54%
Dec 1959 - Nov 1978
+6.50% +15.50%
Jul 1980 - Jun 1999
0.00%
0 out of 631
+4.43%
Apr 2000 - Mar 2020
+9.64% +19.38%
Apr 1980 - Mar 2000
0.00%
0 out of 619
+2.03%
Jan 1959 - Dec 1978
+6.55% +16.34%
Apr 1980 - Mar 2000
0.00%
0 out of 619
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