Aim Ways Ulcer Free Strategy Portfolio: ETF allocation and returns

Data Source: from July 1985 to March 2024 (~39 years)
Consolidated Returns as of 31 March 2024
Live Update: Apr 26 2024
PORTFOLIO • LIVE PERFORMANCE (USD currency)
0.39%
1 Day
Apr 26 2024
1.55%
Current Month
April 2024

The Aim Ways Ulcer Free Strategy Portfolio is a Low Risk portfolio and can be implemented with 5 ETFs.

It's exposed for 7% on the Stock Market and for 11% on Commodities.

In the last 30 Years, the Aim Ways Ulcer Free Strategy Portfolio obtained a 6.78% compound annual return, with a 5.47% standard deviation.

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About the Author

Hello. I am "AIM WAYS". I was bord in 1969; I live in Italy and I'm Italian; my name is Carmine.

For almost 15 years -I was not yet 21 years old- I was a tied-agent on behalf of a leading Italian asset management company. Thereafter, I abandoned single-mandate model, and for 13 years I was involved in straightforward consulting.

With changing regulations in the industry sector, in 2018 I decided to permanently abandon the classic 'Output-Economy' approach (focused on the placement of instruments) to face a new concept: financial coaching.

Challenge consists in being able to generate income revenues (for me), with value and full reward for the investor/prospect.

It is the cornerstone of the 'Outcome-Economy': a new 'ecosystem' in which, RELATIONSHIP (Advisory), is the main pillar, through major tool: 'Goal based investing'; my policy does NOT allow "recommenda- tions on financial instruments."

Basically, I focus on the 'CORE' stages of <Consulting Process>; that is: once the 'anamnesis' is taken and the correct 'therapy' (including 'dosage') is identified, it will then be the interactor -now sufficiently learned- to choose both 'pharmacy' and specific 'medicine'.

After all these years professionally engaged in personal finance, I still manage to be passionate about the world of investments.

Portfolio Overview

“Ulcer-Free”, designed for several goals, containing “Ulcer-Index”. Index measures “emotional pain” from swings in listed assets. It's to work on unease and impulsiveness, for those with very low tolerance and capacity risk, by guarding their savings from relevant declines.

Strategy aims to balance several elements, including: stability, fixed income, inflation protection, and equity appreciation. It's worth noting that, investment choices, involve ‘risks’ find their correct ‘garrison’ in conforming allocations to: specific needs, time horizon, and investor's “risk appeal”.

Other targets include: Sharpe ratio properly rewarding investor, relative to their risk spent; a real return, at least, 2 or 3 points above long-term average inflation. And, as a result of “final gap of an output process”, a ‘perpetual’ withdrawal rate, that gives realistic statistical confidence of survival of decumulation, relative to the beneficiary.

Policy and structure of strategy
  • 7% US large cap growth: sector tracks performance of large-cap companies, considered with high growth potential.
  • 34% US intermediate bond 7-10 years: government intermediate securities provide stability and income to the portfolio. These are (generally) statistically less risky than short-term or high-yield bonds.
  • 34% Internat. all-term bonds: all listed in developed markets; a contribute to geographic credit diversification, with exposure to government debt, issued only by economically advanced countries.
  • 14% Bloomberg US convert. securit. all-term bond: convertible offer a combination of fixed income and equity appreciation (exchange for shares of issuing companies) but with much lower volatility.
  • 11% Gold commodity: share in gold is oriented to reducing maximum drawdowns and protecting against inflation; in addition acting as a ‘safe-haven’ during times of economic turbulence.

Asset Allocation and ETFs

The Aim Ways Ulcer Free Strategy Portfolio has the following asset allocation:

7% Stocks
82% Fixed Income
11% Commodities

The Aim Ways Ulcer Free Strategy Portfolio can be implemented with the following ETFs:

Weight
(%)
Investment Themes (Orig.Currency) ETF
Ticker
ETF
Currency
ETF Name
7.00 Equity, U.S., Large Cap, Growth (USD)
QQQ
USD Invesco QQQ Trust
34.00 Bond, U.S., Intermediate-Term (USD)
IEF
USD iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond
34.00 Bond, Developed Markets, All-Term (USD)
BNDX
USD Vanguard Total International Bond
14.00 Bond, U.S., All-Term (USD)
CWB
USD SPDR Bloomberg Convertible Securities ETF
11.00 Commodity, Gold (USD)
GLD
USD SPDR Gold Trust

Most of Lazy Portfolios are made of common components (asset classes), very simple and well defined. For a more complete view, find out the most common ETFs you can use to build your portfolio.

Portfolio and ETF Returns as of Mar 31, 2024

The Aim Ways Ulcer Free Strategy Portfolio guaranteed the following returns.

Returns are calculated in USD, assuming: April 2024 return is calculated on the hypothesis of a newly built portfolio, with the starting asset allocation.
AIM WAYS ULCER FREE STRATEGY PORTFOLIO
Consolidated returns as of 31 March 2024
Live Update: Apr 26 2024
Swipe left to see all data
  Chg (%) Return (%) Return (%) as of Mar 31, 2024
  1 Day Time ET(*) Apr 2024 1M 6M 1Y 5Y 10Y 30Y MAX
(~39Y)
Aim Ways Ulcer Free Strategy Portfolio 0.39 -1.55 1.96 9.20 6.99 4.21 4.44 6.78 7.71
US Inflation Adjusted return 1.58 7.47 3.40 0.02 1.56 4.13 4.79
Components
QQQ
USD Invesco QQQ Trust 1.54 Apr 26 2024 -2.93 1.27 24.41 39.27 20.61 18.58 14.30 14.35
IEF
USD iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond 0.27 Apr 26 2024 -3.07 0.73 5.02 -1.56 -0.61 1.16 4.85 6.20
BNDX
USD Vanguard Total International Bond 0.27 Apr 26 2024 -1.34 1.12 6.59 5.19 0.33 2.18 4.86 6.42
CWB
USD SPDR Bloomberg Convertible Securities ETF 0.43 Apr 26 2024 -3.03 2.08 8.97 11.16 9.53 8.59 8.64 9.42
GLD
USD SPDR Gold Trust 0.32 Apr 26 2024 5.30 8.67 19.99 12.28 11.01 5.23 5.69 4.92
Returns over 1 year are annualized | Available data source: since Jul 1985
(*) Eastern Time (ET - America/New York)
US Inflation is updated to Mar 2024. Current inflation (annualized) is 1Y: 3.48% , 5Y: 4.19% , 10Y: 2.84% , 30Y: 2.54%

In 2023, the Aim Ways Ulcer Free Strategy Portfolio granted a 2.97% dividend yield. If you are interested in getting periodic income, please refer to the Aim Ways Ulcer Free Strategy Portfolio: Dividend Yield page.

Capital Growth as of Mar 31, 2024

An investment of 1$, since April 1994, now would be worth 7.15$, with a total return of 615.14% (6.78% annualized).

The Inflation Adjusted Capital now would be 3.37$, with a net total return of 236.92% (4.13% annualized).
An investment of 1$, since July 1985, now would be worth 17.81$, with a total return of 1680.86% (7.71% annualized).

The Inflation Adjusted Capital now would be 6.13$, with a net total return of 513.15% (4.79% annualized).

Portfolio Metrics as of Mar 31, 2024

Metrics of Aim Ways Ulcer Free Strategy Portfolio, updated as of 31 March 2024.

Metrics are calculated based on monthly returns, assuming:
AIM WAYS ULCER FREE STRATEGY PORTFOLIO
Advanced Metrics
Data Source: 1 July 1985 - 31 March 2024 (~39 years)
Swipe left to see all data
Metrics as of Mar 31, 2024
1M 3M 6M 1Y 3Y 5Y 10Y 20Y 30Y MAX
(~39Y)
Investment Return (%) 1.96 1.21 9.20 6.99 -0.13 4.21 4.44 5.80 6.78 7.71
Infl. Adjusted Return (%) details 1.58 0.08 7.47 3.40 -5.45 0.02 1.56 3.12 4.13 4.79
US Inflation (%) 0.38 1.13 1.61 3.48 5.63 4.19 2.84 2.59 2.54 2.79
Returns / Inflation rates over 1 year are annualized.
DRAWDOWN
Inflation Adjusted:
Inflation Adjusted:
1Y 3Y 5Y 10Y 20Y 30Y MAX
Deepest Drawdown Depth (%) -4.45 -17.05 -17.05 -17.05 -17.05 -17.05 -17.05
Start to Recovery (# months) details 4 31* 31* 31* 31* 31* 31*
Start (yyyy mm) 2023 08 2021 09 2021 09 2021 09 2021 09 2021 09 2021 09
Start to Bottom (# months) 3 13 13 13 13 13 13
Bottom (yyyy mm) 2023 10 2022 09 2022 09 2022 09 2022 09 2022 09 2022 09
Bottom to End (# months) 1 18 18 18 18 18 18
End (yyyy mm) 2023 11 - - - - - -
Longest Drawdown Depth (%)
same as
deepest

same as
deepest

same as
deepest

same as
deepest

same as
deepest

same as
deepest

same as
deepest
Start to Recovery (# months) details
Start (yyyy mm) 2023 08 2021 09 2021 09 2021 09 2021 09 2021 09 2021 09
Start to Bottom (# months) 3 13 13 13 13 13 13
Bottom (yyyy mm) 2023 10 2022 09 2022 09 2022 09 2022 09 2022 09 2022 09
Bottom to End (# months) 1 18 18 18 18 18 18
End (yyyy mm) 2023 11 - - - - - -
Longest negative period (# months) details 7 36* 43 43 43 43 43
Period Start (yyyy mm) 2023 04 2021 04 2020 08 2020 08 2020 08 2020 08 2020 08
Period End (yyyy mm) 2023 10 2024 03 2024 02 2024 02 2024 02 2024 02 2024 02
Annualized Return (%) -4.56 -0.13 -0.31 -0.31 -0.31 -0.31 -0.31
Drawdowns / Negative periods marked with * are in progress
Deepest Drawdown Depth (%) -5.35 -23.96 -26.36 -26.36 -26.36 -26.36 -26.36
Start to Recovery (# months) details 5 31* 39* 39* 39* 39* 39*
Start (yyyy mm) 2023 08 2021 09 2021 01 2021 01 2021 01 2021 01 2021 01
Start to Bottom (# months) 3 14 22 22 22 22 22
Bottom (yyyy mm) 2023 10 2022 10 2022 10 2022 10 2022 10 2022 10 2022 10
Bottom to End (# months) 2 17 17 17 17 17 17
End (yyyy mm) 2023 12 - - - - - -
Longest Drawdown Depth (%)
same as
deepest

same as
deepest

same as
deepest

same as
deepest

same as
deepest

same as
deepest

same as
deepest
Start to Recovery (# months) details
Start (yyyy mm) 2023 08 2021 09 2021 01 2021 01 2021 01 2021 01 2021 01
Start to Bottom (# months) 3 14 22 22 22 22 22
Bottom (yyyy mm) 2023 10 2022 10 2022 10 2022 10 2022 10 2022 10 2022 10
Bottom to End (# months) 2 17 17 17 17 17 17
End (yyyy mm) 2023 12 - - - - - -
Longest negative period (# months) details 8 36* 59 105 105 105 105
Period Start (yyyy mm) 2023 04 2021 04 2019 04 2015 02 2015 02 2015 02 2015 02
Period End (yyyy mm) 2023 11 2024 03 2024 02 2023 10 2023 10 2023 10 2023 10
Annualized Return (%) -0.34 -5.45 -0.30 -0.08 -0.08 -0.08 -0.08
Drawdowns / Negative periods marked with * are in progress
RISK INDICATORS
1Y 3Y 5Y 10Y 20Y 30Y MAX
Standard Deviation (%) 6.87 8.12 7.44 5.94 5.59 5.47 5.61
Sharpe Ratio 0.26 -0.32 0.31 0.54 0.80 0.82 0.66
Sortino Ratio 0.42 -0.47 0.44 0.76 1.08 1.15 0.93
Ulcer Index 1.66 9.46 7.41 5.34 4.07 3.40 3.18
Ratio: Return / Standard Deviation 1.02 -0.02 0.57 0.75 1.04 1.24 1.38
Ratio: Return / Deepest Drawdown 1.57 -0.01 0.25 0.26 0.34 0.40 0.45
% Positive Months details 58% 52% 58% 62% 64% 63% 64%
Positive Months 7 19 35 75 155 230 302
Negative Months 5 17 25 45 85 130 163
LONG TERM RETURNS
Inflation Adjusted:
Inflation Adjusted:
1Y 3Y 5Y 10Y 20Y 30Y MAX
Best 10 Years Return (%) - Annualized 4.44 7.74 9.36 10.90
Worst 10 Years Return (%) - Annualized 3.29 3.29 3.29
Best 10 Years Return (%) - Annualized 1.56 5.71 6.71 7.86
Worst 10 Years Return (%) - Annualized 0.75 0.75 0.75
ROLLING PERIODS
Inflation Adjusted:
Inflation Adjusted:
1Y 3Y 5Y 10Y 20Y 30Y MAX
Over the latest 30Y
Best Rolling Return (%) - Annualized 23.53 15.40 11.23 9.36 8.43 6.78
Worst Rolling Return (%) - Annualized -16.07 -2.80 2.64 3.29 5.63
% Positive Periods 91% 96% 100% 100% 100% 100%
SWR - Safe Withdrawal Rate (%) - 100% Success - Annualized 87.33 27.95 20.61 11.32 7.28 6.56
PWR - Perpetual Withdrawal Rate (%) - 100% Success - Annualized - - - 0.82 3.34 4.62
WR calculated based on initial capital | Monthly withdrawals adjusted for inflation | Credits: BestRetirementPortfolio.com
Best Rolling Return (%) - Annualized 23.12 13.72 9.33 6.71 6.04 4.13
Worst Rolling Return (%) - Annualized -22.11 -8.06 -1.16 0.75 2.97
% Positive Periods 84% 93% 96% 100% 100% 100%
SWR - Safe Withdrawal Rate (%) - 100% Success - Annualized 87.33 27.95 20.61 11.32 7.28 6.56
PWR - Perpetual Withdrawal Rate (%) - 100% Success - Annualized - - - 0.82 3.34 4.62
WR calculated based on initial capital | Monthly withdrawals adjusted for inflation | Credits: BestRetirementPortfolio.com
Over all the available data source (Jul 1985 - Mar 2024)
Best Rolling Return (%) - Annualized 27.89 17.15 12.67 10.90 9.51 8.71
Worst Rolling Return (%) - Annualized -16.07 -2.80 2.64 3.29 5.63 6.34
% Positive Periods 91% 97% 100% 100% 100% 100%
SWR - Safe Withdrawal Rate (%) - 100% Success - Annualized 87.33 27.95 20.26 11.32 7.28 6.20
PWR - Perpetual Withdrawal Rate (%) - 100% Success - Annualized - - - 0.82 3.34 4.14
WR calculated based on initial capital | Monthly withdrawals adjusted for inflation | Credits: BestRetirementPortfolio.com
Best Rolling Return (%) - Annualized 25.90 13.78 9.55 7.86 6.70 5.96
Worst Rolling Return (%) - Annualized -22.11 -8.06 -1.16 0.75 2.97 3.72
% Positive Periods 81% 94% 97% 100% 100% 100%
SWR - Safe Withdrawal Rate (%) - 100% Success - Annualized 87.33 27.95 20.26 11.32 7.28 6.20
PWR - Perpetual Withdrawal Rate (%) - 100% Success - Annualized - - - 0.82 3.34 4.14
WR calculated based on initial capital | Monthly withdrawals adjusted for inflation | Credits: BestRetirementPortfolio.com
Terms and Definitions
  • Annualized Portfolio Return: it's the annualized geometric mean return of the portfolio.
  • Deepest/Longest Drawdown: a drawdown refers to the decline in value from a relative peak value to a relative trough. The deepest (or maximum) drawdown is the maximum observed loss from a peak to a trough of a portfolio before a new peak is attained. The longest drawdown is the period observed from a peak to the subsequent peak with the greatest duration.
  • Longest negative period: it's the maximum period for which an overall negative return has been observed.
  • Standard Deviation: it's a measure of the dispersion of returns around the mean.
  • Sharpe Ratio: it's a measure of risk-adjusted performance of the portfolio. It's calculated by dividing the excess return of the portfolio over the risk-free rate by the portfolio standard deviation. The risk-free rate here considered is the 1-3 Mth T-Bill return.
  • Sortino Ratio: another measure of risk-adjusted performance of the portfolio. It's a modification of the Sharpe Ratio (same formula but the denominator is the portfolio downside standard deviation).
  • Ulcer Index: it's a measure of downside risk that quantifies the depth and duration of drawdowns in an investment portfolio.
  • Best/Worst 10Y returns: the best and the worst 10-year return over a time frame.
  • Rolling Returns: N-year returns over a time frame, calculated over all the available data source (best, worst, % of positive returns). Each rolling period, longer than the longest negative period, yielded a non-negative minimum return.
  • Safe Withdrawal Rate (SWR): it's the percentage of the initial portfolio balance that can be withdrawn at the beginning of each month with inflation adjustment, without the portfolio running out of money in any case (money amount withdrawal).
    For instance: Your initial invested capital is 100.000$; withdrawal rate (annualized) is 4%. This means that, in the first month, you will withdraw 100.000 * 4% * 1/12 = 333.33$. The second month, you’ll withdraw 333.33$ plus the inflation monthly rate. You’ll continue adjusting your withdraw monthly for inflation.
  • Perpetual Withdrawal Rate (PWR): it's the percentage of the initial portfolio balance that can be withdrawn at the beginning of each month with inflation adjustment, preserving the original invested capital, adjusted for inflation too.

Portfolio Components Correlation

Correlation measures to what degree the returns of the two assets move in relation to each other.

Correlation coefficient is a numerical value between -1 and +1. If one variable goes up by a certain amount, the correlation coefficient indicates which way the other variable moves and by how much.
Asset correlations are calculated based on monthly returns.
COMPONENTS MONTHLY CORRELATIONS
Monthly correlations as of 31 March 2024
Swipe left to see all data

If you want to learn more about historical correlations, you can find out here how the main asset class are correlated to each other.

Drawdowns

A drawdown refers to the decline in value from a relative peak value to a relative trough. A maximum drawdown is the maximum observed loss from a peak to a trough of a portfolio before a new peak is attained.

AIM WAYS ULCER FREE STRATEGY PORTFOLIO
Drawdown periods
Drawdown periods - Inflation Adjusted
Data Source: 1 April 1994 - 31 March 2024 (30 Years)
Data Source: 1 July 1985 - 31 March 2024 (~39 years)
Inflation Adjusted:
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Rolling Returns

( more details)

A rolling return is a measure of investment performance that calculates the return of an investment over a set period of time, with the starting date rolling forward. This approach can provide a more accurate representation of the investment's historical performance and helps investors to evaluate the investment's consistency over time.

AIM WAYS ULCER FREE STRATEGY PORTFOLIO
Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Returns - Inflation Adjusted
Data Source: 1 April 1994 - 31 March 2024 (30 Years)
Data Source: 1 July 1985 - 31 March 2024 (~39 years)
Inflation Adjusted:

If you need a deeper detail about rolling returns, please refer to the Aim Ways Ulcer Free Strategy Portfolio: Rolling Returns page.

Seasonality

In which months is it better to invest in Aim Ways Ulcer Free Strategy Portfolio?

Both the Average Return and the Gain Frequency (Win %) are useful to get an idea of what happened in the past.
For further information about the seasonality, check the Asset Class Seasonality page.
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Monthly Returns

This section provides a visual/tabular representation of the performance variability in the Aim Ways Ulcer Free Strategy Portfolio over time. It illustrates the distribution of monthly returns, showcasing the range and frequency of positive and negative returns.

AIM WAYS ULCER FREE STRATEGY PORTFOLIO
Monthly Returns Distribution
Data Source: 1 April 1994 - 31 March 2024 (30 Years)
Data Source: 1 July 1985 - 31 March 2024 (~39 years)
230 Positive Months (64%) - 130 Negative Months (36%)
302 Positive Months (65%) - 163 Negative Months (35%)
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(Scroll down to see all data)
Investment Returns, up to December 2013, have been derived using the historical series of equivalent ETFs / Assets, instead of the actual ETFs of the portfolio.
You can find additional information on extended Data Sources here.

In particular, the series derived from equivalent datasets are:
  • QQQ - Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ), up to December 1999
  • IEF - iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond (IEF), up to December 2002
  • BNDX - Vanguard Total International Bond (BNDX), up to December 2013
  • CWB - SPDR Bloomberg Convertible Securities ETF (CWB), up to April 2009
  • GLD - SPDR Gold Trust (GLD), up to December 2004

Portfolio efficiency

The following portfolios granted a higher return over 30 Years and a less severe drawdown at the same time.

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In the following table, you can compare the current portfolio with a list of famous portfolios. Metrics are calculated over the last 30 Years.

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