When holding the Aim Ways Ulcer Free Strategy Portfolio, how long should you stay invested to have high probability to achieve a positive return?
Over the selected period (~41 years), the longest duration with a negative return was 41 months (from December 2020 to April 2024).
This indicates that, within the same timeframe, any rolling period of 42 months or more has consistently resulted in a positive return.
Understanding this metric is crucial as it highlights the importance of a safe investment horizon. Knowing the minimum duration required to likely see positive returns helps investors set realistic expectations and reinforces the strategy of staying invested through market cycles. This approach can mitigate the emotional reactions to short-term market fluctuations and enhance the likelihood of achieving financial goals.
Aim Ways Ulcer Free Strategy Portfolio: ETF allocation and returns
Previous vs subsequent Returns
Is there a correlation between past and future returns over all 10-year rolling periods?
The following chart illustrates the relationship between past returns (x-axis) and subsequent returns (y-axis).
Data points are aggregated to show occurrences, and you can zoom in by clicking or drawing over the desired area.
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As of Jun 30, 2025, the annualized return of the previous 10 years has been 6.13%.
Rolling Returns
A rolling return is a measure of investment performance that calculates the return of an investment over a set period of time, with the starting date rolling forward. This approach can provide a more accurate representation of the investment's historical performance and helps investors to evaluate the investment's consistency over time.
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Rolling Period Analysis
By selecting the 'Rolling Period', the chart and data will update. To study a different date range, change the simulation settings.
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Worst | Median | Best | Negative Periods |
---|---|---|---|
-16.49%
Nov 2021 - Oct 2022 |
+8.34% |
+32.25%
May 1985 - Apr 1986 |
9.26%
44 out of 475 |
-22.49%
Nov 2021 - Oct 2022 |
+5.20% |
+30.18%
May 1985 - Apr 1986 |
17.05%
81 out of 475 |
-7.49%
Jan 2021 - Dec 2022 |
+7.73% |
+23.72%
Mar 1985 - Feb 1987 |
5.18%
24 out of 463 |
-13.38%
Jan 2021 - Dec 2022 |
+4.95% |
+20.64%
Mar 1985 - Feb 1987 |
9.07%
42 out of 463 |
-1.82%
Oct 2020 - Sep 2023 |
+7.97% |
+17.74%
Nov 1990 - Oct 1993 |
2.22%
10 out of 451 |
-7.15%
Oct 2020 - Sep 2023 |
+5.21% |
+14.62%
Nov 2008 - Oct 2011 |
8.65%
39 out of 451 |
+1.38%
Jan 2021 - Dec 2024 |
+8.08% |
+14.22%
Nov 2008 - Oct 2012 |
0.00%
0 out of 439 |
-3.38%
Jan 2021 - Dec 2024 |
+5.46% |
+12.37%
Nov 2008 - Oct 2012 |
6.83%
30 out of 439 |
+3.42%
Nov 2017 - Oct 2022 |
+8.37% |
+13.35%
Nov 1990 - Oct 1995 |
0.00%
0 out of 427 |
-0.41%
Nov 2017 - Oct 2022 |
+5.58% |
+10.57%
Mar 1995 - Feb 2000 |
0.70%
3 out of 427 |
+3.47%
Oct 2016 - Sep 2022 |
+8.31% |
+12.71%
Nov 1990 - Oct 1996 |
0.00%
0 out of 415 |
-0.02%
Oct 2016 - Sep 2022 |
+5.62% |
+9.55%
Nov 1990 - Oct 1996 |
0.24%
1 out of 415 |
+3.95%
Oct 2016 - Sep 2023 |
+8.26% |
+12.85%
Jan 1985 - Dec 1991 |
0.00%
0 out of 403 |
+0.42%
Oct 2016 - Sep 2023 |
+5.80% |
+8.99%
Nov 1990 - Oct 1997 |
0.00%
0 out of 403 |
+4.02%
Nov 2014 - Oct 2022 |
+8.31% |
+12.43%
Mar 1985 - Feb 1993 |
0.00%
0 out of 391 |
+0.87%
Mar 2015 - Feb 2023 |
+5.76% |
+9.03%
Nov 1990 - Oct 1998 |
0.00%
0 out of 391 |
+4.23%
Nov 2014 - Oct 2023 |
+8.15% |
+12.69%
Jan 1985 - Dec 1993 |
0.00%
0 out of 379 |
+1.28%
Nov 2014 - Oct 2023 |
+5.63% |
+8.98%
Jan 1991 - Dec 1999 |
0.00%
0 out of 379 |
+4.03%
Oct 2012 - Sep 2022 |
+8.20% |
+11.96%
Sep 1990 - Aug 2000 |
0.00%
0 out of 367 |
+1.47%
Oct 2012 - Sep 2022 |
+5.64% |
+8.96%
Sep 1990 - Aug 2000 |
0.00%
0 out of 367 |
+4.28%
Oct 2012 - Sep 2023 |
+8.27% |
+11.84%
Jan 1985 - Dec 1995 |
0.00%
0 out of 355 |
+1.61%
Oct 2012 - Sep 2023 |
+5.65% |
+8.07%
Apr 1989 - Mar 2000 |
0.00%
0 out of 355 |
+4.64%
Nov 2011 - Oct 2023 |
+8.28% |
+11.53%
Jan 1985 - Dec 1996 |
0.00%
0 out of 343 |
+2.02%
Nov 2011 - Oct 2023 |
+5.64% |
+7.78%
Jan 1985 - Dec 1996 |
0.00%
0 out of 343 |
+4.90%
Nov 2010 - Oct 2023 |
+8.14% |
+11.14%
Mar 1985 - Feb 1998 |
0.00%
0 out of 331 |
+2.19%
Nov 2010 - Oct 2023 |
+5.74% |
+7.70%
Nov 1990 - Oct 2003 |
0.00%
0 out of 331 |
+5.72%
Nov 2009 - Oct 2023 |
+8.09% |
+11.47%
Jan 1985 - Dec 1998 |
0.00%
0 out of 319 |
+3.03%
May 2010 - Apr 2024 |
+5.69% |
+7.99%
Jan 1985 - Dec 1998 |
0.00%
0 out of 319 |
+5.62%
Nov 2007 - Oct 2022 |
+8.13% |
+11.67%
Mar 1985 - Feb 2000 |
0.00%
0 out of 307 |
+3.17%
Nov 2007 - Oct 2022 |
+5.69% |
+8.23%
Mar 1985 - Feb 2000 |
0.00%
0 out of 307 |
+5.64%
Nov 2007 - Oct 2023 |
+8.11% |
+11.15%
Jan 1985 - Dec 2000 |
0.00%
0 out of 295 |
+3.13%
Nov 2007 - Oct 2023 |
+5.58% |
+7.71%
Jan 1985 - Dec 2000 |
0.00%
0 out of 295 |
+5.96%
Nov 2006 - Oct 2023 |
+8.25% |
+10.57%
Jan 1985 - Dec 2001 |
0.00%
0 out of 283 |
+3.37%
Nov 2006 - Oct 2023 |
+5.70% |
+7.25%
Jan 1985 - Dec 2001 |
0.00%
0 out of 283 |
+6.03%
Jan 2005 - Dec 2022 |
+8.26% |
+10.21%
Jan 1985 - Dec 2002 |
0.00%
0 out of 271 |
+3.45%
Jan 2005 - Dec 2022 |
+5.76% |
+6.92%
Jan 1985 - Dec 2002 |
0.00%
0 out of 271 |
+6.10%
Jan 2004 - Dec 2022 |
+8.18% |
+10.50%
Jan 1985 - Dec 2003 |
0.00%
0 out of 259 |
+3.47%
Nov 2004 - Oct 2023 |
+5.69% |
+7.27%
Jan 1985 - Dec 2003 |
0.00%
0 out of 259 |
+6.19%
Nov 2003 - Oct 2023 |
+8.12% |
+10.34%
Jan 1985 - Dec 2004 |
0.00%
0 out of 247 |
+3.53%
Nov 2003 - Oct 2023 |
+5.56% |
+7.12%
Nov 1990 - Oct 2010 |
0.00%
0 out of 247 |
Aim Ways Ulcer Free Strategy Portfolio: ETF allocation and returns