Stocks/Bonds 80/20 To EUR Hedged Portfolio: Rolling Returns

Simulation Settings
Period: January 1950 - May 2025 (~75 years)
Rebalancing: at every Jan 1st
Currency: EUR
Inflation: Eurozone
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When holding the Stocks/Bonds 80/20 To EUR Hedged Portfolio, how long should you stay invested to have high probability to achieve a positive return?

Over the selected period (~75 years), the longest duration with a negative return was 131 months (from April 1998 to February 2009).

This indicates that, within the same timeframe, any rolling period of 132 months or more has consistently resulted in a positive return.

Understanding this metric is crucial as it highlights the importance of a safe investment horizon. Knowing the minimum duration required to likely see positive returns helps investors set realistic expectations and reinforces the strategy of staying invested through market cycles. This approach can mitigate the emotional reactions to short-term market fluctuations and enhance the likelihood of achieving financial goals.

Previous vs subsequent Returns

Is there a correlation between past and future returns over all 10-year rolling periods?

The following chart illustrates the relationship between past returns (x-axis) and subsequent returns (y-axis).

Data points are aggregated to show occurrences, and you can zoom in by clicking or drawing over the desired area.

STOCKS/BONDS 80/20 TO EUR HEDGED PORTFOLIO
Previous vs Next Returns - 10 Years annualized
Time Period: 1 June 1995 - 31 May 2025 (30 Years)
Time Period: 1 January 1950 - 31 May 2025 (~75 years)

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As of May 31, 2025, the annualized return of the previous 10 years has been 8.34%.

Rolling Returns

A rolling return is a measure of investment performance that calculates the return of an investment over a set period of time, with the starting date rolling forward. This approach can provide a more accurate representation of the investment's historical performance and helps investors to evaluate the investment's consistency over time.

STOCKS/BONDS 80/20 TO EUR HEDGED PORTFOLIO
Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Returns - Inflation Adjusted
Time Period: 1 June 1995 - 31 May 2025 (30 Years)
Time Period: 1 January 1950 - 31 May 2025 (~75 years)
Eurozone Inflation Adjusted:

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Rolling Period Analysis

By selecting the 'Rolling Period', the chart and data will update. To study a different date range, change the simulation settings.

STOCKS/BONDS 80/20 TO EUR HEDGED PORTFOLIO
Rolling Returns Chart
Rolling Returns Chart - Inflation Adjusted
Time Period: 1 January 1950 - 31 May 2025 (~75 years)
Eurozone Inflation Adjusted:

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Swipe left to see all data
Worst Median Best Negative Periods
-34.15%
Oct 1973 - Sep 1974
+11.98% +53.87%
Jul 1982 - Jun 1983
19.46%
174 out of 894
-38.56%
Oct 1973 - Sep 1974
+9.29% +49.94%
Jul 1982 - Jun 1983
23.94%
214 out of 894
-19.39%
Mar 2007 - Feb 2009
+10.39% +35.69%
Oct 1953 - Sep 1955
11.56%
102 out of 882
-24.13%
Oct 1972 - Sep 1974
+7.74% +33.34%
Sep 1953 - Aug 1955
17.91%
158 out of 882
-11.22%
Apr 2000 - Mar 2003
+10.12% +28.02%
Sep 1953 - Aug 1956
9.08%
79 out of 870
-15.05%
Oct 1971 - Sep 1974
+7.50% +25.68%
Sep 1953 - Aug 1956
16.21%
141 out of 870
-6.86%
Mar 2005 - Feb 2009
+9.85% +23.25%
Feb 1995 - Jan 1999
5.71%
49 out of 858
-8.82%
Mar 2005 - Feb 2009
+7.23% +21.65%
Jul 1951 - Jun 1955
14.45%
124 out of 858
-4.25%
Mar 2004 - Feb 2009
+9.98% +23.76%
Aug 1950 - Jul 1955
2.25%
19 out of 846
-7.52%
Oct 1969 - Sep 1974
+7.06% +22.13%
Aug 1950 - Jul 1955
15.25%
129 out of 846
-3.45%
Oct 1968 - Sep 1974
+9.88% +22.81%
Apr 1950 - Mar 1956
0.84%
7 out of 834
-8.20%
Oct 1968 - Sep 1974
+7.19% +20.73%
Aug 1950 - Jul 1956
8.99%
75 out of 834
-1.77%
Oct 1967 - Sep 1974
+9.32% +20.39%
Jan 1950 - Dec 1956
0.85%
7 out of 822
-6.12%
Oct 1967 - Sep 1974
+6.60% +18.01%
Jan 1950 - Dec 1956
8.52%
70 out of 822
-1.47%
Mar 2001 - Feb 2009
+9.53% +19.17%
Jan 1991 - Dec 1998
0.74%
6 out of 810
-3.54%
Mar 2001 - Feb 2009
+6.62% +16.78%
Jul 1951 - Jun 1959
10.99%
89 out of 810
-2.57%
Mar 2000 - Feb 2009
+9.37% +19.17%
Jan 1950 - Dec 1958
1.00%
8 out of 798
-4.60%
Mar 2000 - Feb 2009
+6.89% +17.32%
Aug 1950 - Jul 1959
10.03%
80 out of 798
-0.95%
Mar 1999 - Feb 2009
+9.26% +18.26%
Jan 1950 - Dec 1959
0.51%
4 out of 786
-3.00%
Mar 1999 - Feb 2009
+6.49% +16.10%
Jan 1950 - Dec 1959
10.56%
83 out of 786
+0.10%
Mar 1998 - Feb 2009
+9.40% +17.67%
Apr 1950 - Mar 1961
0.00%
0 out of 774
-1.84%
Mar 1998 - Feb 2009
+6.92% +15.75%
Apr 1950 - Mar 1961
6.20%
48 out of 774
+2.15%
Mar 1997 - Feb 2009
+9.40% +17.59%
Jan 1950 - Dec 1961
0.00%
0 out of 762
-0.55%
May 1968 - Apr 1980
+7.01% +15.47%
Jan 1950 - Dec 1961
1.57%
12 out of 762
+3.27%
Mar 1996 - Feb 2009
+9.30% +16.10%
Aug 1984 - Jul 1997
0.00%
0 out of 750
-1.01%
Oct 1968 - Sep 1981
+6.76% +13.75%
Sep 1950 - Aug 1963
2.53%
19 out of 750
+3.65%
Jul 1968 - Jun 1982
+9.05% +15.97%
Jul 1984 - Jun 1998
0.00%
0 out of 738
-1.17%
Aug 1968 - Jul 1982
+6.70% +13.82%
Aug 1950 - Jul 1964
1.63%
12 out of 738
+3.88%
Aug 1967 - Jul 1982
+8.79% +16.19%
Aug 1982 - Jul 1997
0.00%
0 out of 726
-0.71%
Aug 1967 - Jul 1982
+6.47% +13.51%
Aug 1982 - Jul 1997
0.96%
7 out of 726
+4.59%
Apr 1966 - Mar 1982
+8.78% +16.09%
Jul 1982 - Jun 1998
0.00%
0 out of 714
+0.23%
Apr 1966 - Mar 1982
+6.34% +13.49%
Jul 1982 - Jun 1998
0.00%
0 out of 714
+4.55%
Aug 1965 - Jul 1982
+8.26% +15.99%
Jul 1982 - Jun 1999
0.00%
0 out of 702
+0.16%
Aug 1965 - Jul 1982
+5.80% +13.49%
Jul 1982 - Jun 1999
0.00%
0 out of 702
+4.66%
Aug 1964 - Jul 1982
+8.21% +15.58%
Apr 1982 - Mar 2000
0.00%
0 out of 690
+0.29%
Aug 1964 - Jul 1982
+5.83% +12.99%
Apr 1982 - Mar 2000
0.00%
0 out of 690
+5.13%
Jan 2000 - Dec 2018
+8.32% +14.48%
Apr 1980 - Mar 1999
0.00%
0 out of 678
+1.08%
Aug 1963 - Jul 1982
+5.92% +11.81%
Oct 1981 - Sep 2000
0.00%
0 out of 678
+4.98%
Apr 2000 - Mar 2020
+8.42% +14.58%
Apr 1980 - Mar 2000
0.00%
0 out of 666
+1.34%
Apr 1962 - Mar 1982
+5.97% +11.67%
Apr 1980 - Mar 2000
0.00%
0 out of 666
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