Stocks/Bonds 60/40 Portfolio: Rolling Returns

Data Source: from January 1871 to April 2024 (~153 years)
Consolidated Returns as of 30 April 2024

Holding the Stocks/Bonds 60/40 Portfolio, how long should you stay invested to have high probability to obtain a positive return?

Considering all the available data source (~153 years), the longest period with a negative return lasted 154 months (from September 1929 to June 1942).

This means that every rolling period of 155 months or above has always granted a positive return.

To obtain comprehensive information, please consult the Stocks/Bonds 60/40 Portfolio: ETF allocation and returns page.

Previous vs subsequent Returns

Considering all 10-year rolling periods, is there a relationship between past and future returns, at a given date?

In the following chart, we show how past returns (x-axis) and subsequent returns (y-axis) are related.

Neighboring data is aggregated and occurrences are indicated. It is possible to zoom by clicking or drawing the desired area

STOCKS/BONDS 60/40 PORTFOLIO
Previous vs Next Returns - 10 Years annualized
Updated to April 2024

The annualized return of the last 10 years has been 7.62% (updated at Apr 30, 2024).

Rolling Returns

A rolling return is a measure of investment performance that calculates the return of an investment over a set period of time, with the starting date rolling forward. This approach can provide a more accurate representation of the investment's historical performance and helps investors to evaluate the investment's consistency over time.

STOCKS/BONDS 60/40 PORTFOLIO
Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Returns - Inflation Adjusted
Data Source: 1 May 1994 - 30 April 2024 (30 Years)
Data Source: 1 January 1871 - 30 April 2024 (~153 years)
Inflation Adjusted:

Annualized Rolling Returns - 1 Year (12 months)

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Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return +8.32% +83.44%
Jul 1932 - Jun 1933
-44.89%
Jul 1931 - Jun 1932
22.69%
415 out of 1829
US Inflation Adjusted +6.46% +96.44%
Jul 1932 - Jun 1933
-38.81%
Jul 1931 - Jun 1932
29.91%
547 out of 1829
1 Year Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month
1 Year Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

Annualized Rolling Returns - 2 Years (24 months)

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Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return +8.04% +35.24%
Jul 1932 - Jun 1934
-34.28%
Jun 1930 - May 1932
15.13%
275 out of 1817
US Inflation Adjusted +5.93% +36.24%
Jul 1932 - Jun 1934
-27.01%
Jun 1930 - May 1932
23.45%
426 out of 1817
2 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month
2 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

Annualized Rolling Returns - 3 Years (36 months)

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Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return +7.76% +28.79%
Mar 1933 - Feb 1936
-25.23%
Jul 1929 - Jun 1932
9.36%
169 out of 1805
US Inflation Adjusted +5.76% +25.29%
Jul 1932 - Jun 1935
-19.29%
Jul 1929 - Jun 1932
18.34%
331 out of 1805
3 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month
3 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

Annualized Rolling Returns - 4 Years (48 months)

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Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return +7.62% +26.95%
Jul 1932 - Jun 1936
-15.33%
Jun 1928 - May 1932
5.24%
94 out of 1793
US Inflation Adjusted +5.79% +26.49%
Jul 1932 - Jun 1936
-13.01%
Jul 1916 - Jun 1920
15.39%
276 out of 1793
4 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month
4 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

Annualized Rolling Returns - 5 Years (60 months)

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Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return +7.69% +23.38%
Jun 1932 - May 1937
-8.90%
Jun 1927 - May 1932
3.43%
61 out of 1781
US Inflation Adjusted +5.87% +22.15%
Jun 1932 - May 1937
-10.35%
Jan 1916 - Dec 1920
12.69%
226 out of 1781
5 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month
5 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

Annualized Rolling Returns - 6 Years (72 months)

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Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return +7.70% +19.62%
Oct 1981 - Sep 1987
-4.99%
Jul 1926 - Jun 1932
2.77%
49 out of 1769
US Inflation Adjusted +5.60% +18.74%
Sep 1923 - Aug 1929
-7.64%
Jul 1914 - Jun 1920
10.46%
185 out of 1769
6 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month
6 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

Annualized Rolling Returns - 7 Years (84 months)

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Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return +7.55% +18.96%
Apr 1980 - Mar 1987
-2.67%
Jul 1925 - Jun 1932
0.74%
13 out of 1757
US Inflation Adjusted +5.41% +16.78%
Sep 1921 - Aug 1928
-6.22%
Jun 1913 - May 1920
9.39%
165 out of 1757
7 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month
7 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

Annualized Rolling Returns - 8 Years (96 months)

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Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return +7.39% +18.12%
Sep 1921 - Aug 1929
-1.48%
Apr 1930 - Mar 1938
0.23%
4 out of 1745
US Inflation Adjusted +5.61% +18.46%
Sep 1921 - Aug 1929
-5.99%
Aug 1912 - Jul 1920
10.32%
180 out of 1745
8 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month
8 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

Annualized Rolling Returns - 9 Years (108 months)

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Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return +7.39% +16.60%
Mar 1978 - Feb 1987
-0.96%
Apr 1929 - Mar 1938
0.23%
4 out of 1733
US Inflation Adjusted +5.68% +17.48%
Sep 1920 - Aug 1929
-5.99%
Jul 1911 - Jun 1920
9.64%
167 out of 1733
9 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month
9 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

Annualized Rolling Returns - 10 Years (120 months)

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Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return +7.34% +15.69%
Aug 1982 - Jul 1992
-0.01%
Sep 1929 - Aug 1939
0.06%
1 out of 1721
US Inflation Adjusted +5.59% +14.69%
Jun 1920 - May 1930
-4.21%
Jul 1911 - Jun 1921
8.60%
148 out of 1721
10 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month
10 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

Annualized Rolling Returns - 11 Years (132 months)

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Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return +7.36% +15.30%
Jul 1982 - Jun 1993
+0.18%
Sep 1929 - Aug 1940
0.00%
0 out of 1709
US Inflation Adjusted +5.76% +12.19%
Sep 1918 - Aug 1929
-3.64%
Aug 1909 - Jul 1920
7.55%
129 out of 1709
11 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month
11 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

Annualized Rolling Returns - 12 Years (144 months)

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Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return +7.39% +15.10%
Sep 1974 - Aug 1986
+0.46%
May 1930 - Apr 1942
0.00%
0 out of 1697
US Inflation Adjusted +5.76% +11.55%
Jul 1921 - Jun 1933
-2.69%
Jan 1909 - Dec 1920
6.54%
111 out of 1697
12 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month
12 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution