Consolidated Returns as of 31 March 2024
Holding the Stocks/Bonds 60/40 Portfolio, how long should you stay invested to have high probability to obtain a positive return?
Considering all the available data source (~153 years), the longest period with a negative return lasted 154 months (from September 1929 to June 1942).
This means that every rolling period of 155 months or above has always granted a positive return.
To obtain comprehensive information, please consult the Stocks/Bonds 60/40 Portfolio: ETF allocation and returns page.
Previous vs subsequent Returns
Considering all 10-year rolling periods, is there a relationship between past and future returns, at a given date?
In the following chart, we show how past returns (x-axis) and subsequent returns (y-axis) are related.
Neighboring data is aggregated and occurrences are indicated. It is possible to zoom by clicking or drawing the desired area
The annualized return of the last 10 years has been 8.05% (updated at Mar 31, 2024).
Rolling Returns
A rolling return is a measure of investment performance that calculates the return of an investment over a set period of time, with the starting date rolling forward. This approach can provide a more accurate representation of the investment's historical performance and helps investors to evaluate the investment's consistency over time.
Annualized Rolling Returns - 1 Year (12 months)
Median | Best | Worst | Negative Periods | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Annualized Rolling Return | +8.30% |
+83.44%
Jul 1932 - Jun 1933 |
-44.89%
Jul 1931 - Jun 1932 |
22.70%
415 out of 1828 |
US Inflation Adjusted | +6.44% |
+96.44%
Jul 1932 - Jun 1933 |
-38.81%
Jul 1931 - Jun 1932 |
29.92%
547 out of 1828 |
Annualized Rolling Returns - 2 Years (24 months)
Median | Best | Worst | Negative Periods | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Annualized Rolling Return | +8.04% |
+35.24%
Jul 1932 - Jun 1934 |
-34.28%
Jun 1930 - May 1932 |
15.14%
275 out of 1816 |
US Inflation Adjusted | +5.93% |
+36.24%
Jul 1932 - Jun 1934 |
-27.01%
Jun 1930 - May 1932 |
23.46%
426 out of 1816 |
Annualized Rolling Returns - 3 Years (36 months)
Median | Best | Worst | Negative Periods | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Annualized Rolling Return | +7.76% |
+28.79%
Mar 1933 - Feb 1936 |
-25.23%
Jul 1929 - Jun 1932 |
9.37%
169 out of 1804 |
US Inflation Adjusted | +5.76% |
+25.29%
Jul 1932 - Jun 1935 |
-19.29%
Jul 1929 - Jun 1932 |
18.29%
330 out of 1804 |
Annualized Rolling Returns - 4 Years (48 months)
Median | Best | Worst | Negative Periods | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Annualized Rolling Return | +7.61% |
+26.95%
Jul 1932 - Jun 1936 |
-15.33%
Jun 1928 - May 1932 |
5.25%
94 out of 1792 |
US Inflation Adjusted | +5.79% |
+26.49%
Jul 1932 - Jun 1936 |
-13.01%
Jul 1916 - Jun 1920 |
15.40%
276 out of 1792 |
Annualized Rolling Returns - 5 Years (60 months)
Median | Best | Worst | Negative Periods | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Annualized Rolling Return | +7.69% |
+23.38%
Jun 1932 - May 1937 |
-8.90%
Jun 1927 - May 1932 |
3.43%
61 out of 1780 |
US Inflation Adjusted | +5.87% |
+22.15%
Jun 1932 - May 1937 |
-10.35%
Jan 1916 - Dec 1920 |
12.70%
226 out of 1780 |
Annualized Rolling Returns - 6 Years (72 months)
Median | Best | Worst | Negative Periods | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Annualized Rolling Return | +7.68% |
+19.62%
Oct 1981 - Sep 1987 |
-4.99%
Jul 1926 - Jun 1932 |
2.77%
49 out of 1768 |
US Inflation Adjusted | +5.60% |
+18.74%
Sep 1923 - Aug 1929 |
-7.64%
Jul 1914 - Jun 1920 |
10.46%
185 out of 1768 |
Annualized Rolling Returns - 7 Years (84 months)
Median | Best | Worst | Negative Periods | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Annualized Rolling Return | +7.54% |
+18.96%
Apr 1980 - Mar 1987 |
-2.67%
Jul 1925 - Jun 1932 |
0.74%
13 out of 1756 |
US Inflation Adjusted | +5.41% |
+16.78%
Sep 1921 - Aug 1928 |
-6.22%
Jun 1913 - May 1920 |
9.40%
165 out of 1756 |
Annualized Rolling Returns - 8 Years (96 months)
Median | Best | Worst | Negative Periods | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Annualized Rolling Return | +7.39% |
+18.12%
Sep 1921 - Aug 1929 |
-1.48%
Apr 1930 - Mar 1938 |
0.23%
4 out of 1744 |
US Inflation Adjusted | +5.61% |
+18.46%
Sep 1921 - Aug 1929 |
-5.99%
Aug 1912 - Jul 1920 |
10.32%
180 out of 1744 |
Annualized Rolling Returns - 9 Years (108 months)
Median | Best | Worst | Negative Periods | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Annualized Rolling Return | +7.39% |
+16.60%
Mar 1978 - Feb 1987 |
-0.96%
Apr 1929 - Mar 1938 |
0.23%
4 out of 1732 |
US Inflation Adjusted | +5.68% |
+17.48%
Sep 1920 - Aug 1929 |
-5.99%
Jul 1911 - Jun 1920 |
9.64%
167 out of 1732 |
Annualized Rolling Returns - 10 Years (120 months)
Median | Best | Worst | Negative Periods | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Annualized Rolling Return | +7.34% |
+15.69%
Aug 1982 - Jul 1992 |
-0.01%
Sep 1929 - Aug 1939 |
0.06%
1 out of 1720 |
US Inflation Adjusted | +5.59% |
+14.69%
Jun 1920 - May 1930 |
-4.21%
Jul 1911 - Jun 1921 |
8.60%
148 out of 1720 |
Annualized Rolling Returns - 11 Years (132 months)
Median | Best | Worst | Negative Periods | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Annualized Rolling Return | +7.36% |
+15.30%
Jul 1982 - Jun 1993 |
+0.18%
Sep 1929 - Aug 1940 |
0.00%
0 out of 1708 |
US Inflation Adjusted | +5.76% |
+12.19%
Sep 1918 - Aug 1929 |
-3.64%
Aug 1909 - Jul 1920 |
7.55%
129 out of 1708 |
Annualized Rolling Returns - 12 Years (144 months)
Median | Best | Worst | Negative Periods | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Annualized Rolling Return | +7.39% |
+15.10%
Sep 1974 - Aug 1986 |
+0.46%
May 1930 - Apr 1942 |
0.00%
0 out of 1696 |
US Inflation Adjusted | +5.76% |
+11.55%
Jul 1921 - Jun 1933 |
-2.69%
Jan 1909 - Dec 1920 |
6.54%
111 out of 1696 |
Annualized Rolling Returns - 13 Years (156 months)
Median | Best | Worst | Negative Periods | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Annualized Rolling Return | +7.34% |
+15.46%
Oct 1974 - Sep 1987 |
+0.09%
Sep 1929 - Aug 1942 |
0.00%
0 out of 1684 |
US Inflation Adjusted | +5.59% |
+11.69%
Jul 1920 - Jun 1933 |
-1.81%
Oct 1968 - Sep 1981 |
6.00%
101 out of 1684 |
Annualized Rolling Returns - 14 Years (168 months)
Median | Best | Worst | Negative Periods | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Annualized Rolling Return | +7.14% |
+14.78%
Jul 1984 - Jun 1998 |
+1.71%
Dec 1928 - Nov 1942 |
0.00%
0 out of 1672 |
US Inflation Adjusted | +5.53% |
+11.14%
Jul 1984 - Jun 1998 |
-2.28%
Aug 1906 - Jul 1920 |
4.31%
72 out of 1672 |
Annualized Rolling Returns - 15 Years (180 months)
Median | Best | Worst | Negative Periods | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Annualized Rolling Return | +7.18% |
+15.35%
Aug 1982 - Jul 1997 |
+2.25%
Sep 1881 - Aug 1896 |
0.00%
0 out of 1660 |
US Inflation Adjusted | +5.45% |
+11.58%
Aug 1982 - Jul 1997 |
-2.07%
Aug 1905 - Jul 1920 |
2.59%
43 out of 1660 |
Annualized Rolling Returns - 16 Years (192 months)
Median | Best | Worst | Negative Periods | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Annualized Rolling Return | +7.12% |
+15.36%
Jul 1982 - Jun 1998 |
+2.54%
Jun 1881 - May 1897 |
0.00%
0 out of 1648 |
US Inflation Adjusted | +5.27% |
+11.68%
Jul 1982 - Jun 1998 |
-1.21%
Sep 1905 - Aug 1921 |
2.25%
37 out of 1648 |
Annualized Rolling Returns - 17 Years (204 months)
Median | Best | Worst | Negative Periods | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Annualized Rolling Return | +7.15% |
+15.21%
Jul 1982 - Jun 1999 |
+3.22%
May 1881 - Apr 1898 |
0.00%
0 out of 1636 |
US Inflation Adjusted | +5.19% |
+11.63%
Jul 1982 - Jun 1999 |
-0.71%
Jun 1903 - May 1920 |
1.34%
22 out of 1636 |
Annualized Rolling Returns - 18 Years (216 months)
Median | Best | Worst | Negative Periods | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Annualized Rolling Return | +7.25% |
+14.98%
Apr 1982 - Mar 2000 |
+3.39%
Jun 1914 - May 1932 |
0.00%
0 out of 1624 |
US Inflation Adjusted | +5.32% |
+11.26%
Apr 1982 - Mar 2000 |
-0.92%
Aug 1902 - Jul 1920 |
1.05%
17 out of 1624 |
Annualized Rolling Returns - 19 Years (228 months)
Median | Best | Worst | Negative Periods | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Annualized Rolling Return | +7.29% |
+14.66%
Apr 1980 - Mar 1999 |
+3.40%
Jun 1913 - May 1932 |
0.00%
0 out of 1612 |
US Inflation Adjusted | +5.30% |
+10.69%
Oct 1981 - Sep 2000 |
-1.25%
Jul 1901 - Jun 1920 |
1.24%
20 out of 1612 |
Annualized Rolling Returns - 20 Years (240 months)
Median | Best | Worst | Negative Periods | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Annualized Rolling Return | +7.26% |
+14.69%
Apr 1980 - Mar 2000 |
+3.15%
Jun 1912 - May 1932 |
0.00%
0 out of 1600 |
US Inflation Adjusted | +5.29% |
+10.42%
Apr 1980 - Mar 2000 |
-0.57%
Jul 1901 - Jun 1921 |
0.56%
9 out of 1600 |
To obtain comprehensive information, please consult the Stocks/Bonds 60/40 Portfolio: ETF allocation and returns page.