Stocks/Bonds 40/60 Portfolio: Rolling Returns

Data Source: from January 1871 to March 2024 (~153 years)
Consolidated Returns as of 31 March 2024

Holding the Stocks/Bonds 40/60 Portfolio, how long should you stay invested to have high probability to obtain a positive return?

Considering all the available data source (~153 years), the longest period with a negative return lasted 85 months (from June 1925 to June 1932).

This means that every rolling period of 86 months or above has always granted a positive return.

To obtain comprehensive information, please consult the Stocks/Bonds 40/60 Portfolio: ETF allocation and returns page.

Previous vs subsequent Returns

Considering all 10-year rolling periods, is there a relationship between past and future returns, at a given date?

In the following chart, we show how past returns (x-axis) and subsequent returns (y-axis) are related.

Neighboring data is aggregated and occurrences are indicated. It is possible to zoom by clicking or drawing the desired area

STOCKS/BONDS 40/60 PORTFOLIO
Previous vs Next Returns - 10 Years annualized
Updated to March 2024

The annualized return of the last 10 years has been 5.91% (updated at Mar 31, 2024).

Rolling Returns

A rolling return is a measure of investment performance that calculates the return of an investment over a set period of time, with the starting date rolling forward. This approach can provide a more accurate representation of the investment's historical performance and helps investors to evaluate the investment's consistency over time.

STOCKS/BONDS 40/60 PORTFOLIO
Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Returns - Inflation Adjusted
Data Source: 1 April 1994 - 31 March 2024 (30 Years)
Data Source: 1 January 1871 - 31 March 2024 (~153 years)
Inflation Adjusted:

Annualized Rolling Returns - 1 Year (12 months)

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Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return +6.98% +54.88%
Jul 1932 - Jun 1933 		-31.23%
Jul 1931 - Jun 1932 		18.38%
336 out of 1828
US Inflation Adjusted +5.13% +65.85%
Jul 1932 - Jun 1933 		-24.91%
Oct 1973 - Sep 1974 		30.20%
552 out of 1828
1 Year Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month
1 Year Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

Annualized Rolling Returns - 2 Years (24 months)

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Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return +6.72% +27.88%
Jul 1984 - Jun 1986 		-22.53%
Jun 1930 - May 1932 		11.07%
201 out of 1816
US Inflation Adjusted +5.00% +28.28%
Jun 1877 - May 1879 		-16.17%
Dec 1916 - Nov 1918 		22.58%
410 out of 1816
2 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month
2 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

Annualized Rolling Returns - 3 Years (36 months)

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Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return +6.49% +21.82%
Aug 1984 - Jul 1987 		-15.47%
Jul 1929 - Jun 1932 		3.94%
71 out of 1804
US Inflation Adjusted +4.78% +18.67%
Jul 1932 - Jun 1935 		-12.93%
Aug 1917 - Jul 1920 		17.63%
318 out of 1804
3 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month
3 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

Annualized Rolling Returns - 4 Years (48 months)

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Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return +6.35% +22.62%
Jul 1982 - Jun 1986 		-8.77%
Jun 1928 - May 1932 		2.34%
42 out of 1792
US Inflation Adjusted +4.66% +19.28%
Jun 1932 - May 1936 		-13.43%
Jul 1916 - Jun 1920 		14.62%
262 out of 1792
4 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month
4 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

Annualized Rolling Returns - 5 Years (60 months)

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Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return +6.47% +20.32%
Apr 1982 - Mar 1987 		-4.38%
Jun 1927 - May 1932 		2.25%
40 out of 1780
US Inflation Adjusted +4.83% +16.38%
Aug 1982 - Jul 1987 		-10.27%
Jan 1916 - Dec 1920 		13.71%
244 out of 1780
5 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month
5 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

Annualized Rolling Returns - 6 Years (72 months)

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Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return +6.38% +18.66%
Apr 1980 - Mar 1986 		-1.63%
Jul 1926 - Jun 1932 		0.45%
8 out of 1768
US Inflation Adjusted +4.98% +14.38%
Oct 1981 - Sep 1987 		-8.20%
Jul 1914 - Jun 1920 		11.88%
210 out of 1768
6 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month
6 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

Annualized Rolling Returns - 7 Years (84 months)

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Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return +6.33% +17.94%
Apr 1980 - Mar 1987 		-0.11%
Jul 1925 - Jun 1932 		0.11%
2 out of 1756
US Inflation Adjusted +4.92% +13.61%
Jan 1921 - Dec 1927 		-6.68%
Jun 1913 - May 1920 		11.10%
195 out of 1756
7 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month
7 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

Annualized Rolling Returns - 8 Years (96 months)

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Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return +6.35% +16.11%
Oct 1981 - Sep 1989 		+1.02%
Apr 1930 - Mar 1938 		0.00%
0 out of 1744
US Inflation Adjusted +4.84% +13.97%
Sep 1921 - Aug 1929 		-6.15%
Aug 1912 - Jul 1920 		11.64%
203 out of 1744
8 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month
8 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

Annualized Rolling Returns - 9 Years (108 months)

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Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return +6.41% +15.07%
Mar 1978 - Feb 1987 		+1.46%
Apr 1929 - Mar 1938 		0.00%
0 out of 1732
US Inflation Adjusted +4.92% +14.07%
Sep 1920 - Aug 1929 		-6.15%
Jul 1911 - Jun 1920 		11.32%
196 out of 1732
9 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month
9 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

Annualized Rolling Returns - 10 Years (120 months)

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Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return +6.40% +14.86%
Oct 1981 - Sep 1991 		+2.03%
Sep 1929 - Aug 1939 		0.00%
0 out of 1720
US Inflation Adjusted +4.74% +12.38%
Jun 1920 - May 1930 		-4.00%
Dec 1910 - Nov 1920 		10.52%
181 out of 1720
10 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month
10 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

Annualized Rolling Returns - 11 Years (132 months)

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Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return +6.30% +14.54%
Oct 1981 - Sep 1992 		+2.00%
Sep 1929 - Aug 1940 		0.00%
0 out of 1708
US Inflation Adjusted +4.63% +11.10%
Jul 1920 - Jun 1931 		-3.82%
Aug 1909 - Jul 1920 		9.07%
155 out of 1708
11 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month
11 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

Annualized Rolling Returns - 12 Years (144 months)

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Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return +6.32% +14.37%
Oct 1981 - Sep 1993 		+2.05%
May 1930 - Apr 1942 		0.00%
0 out of 1696
US Inflation Adjusted +4.55% +10.79%
Jul 1921 - Jun 1933 		-3.01%
Aug 1908 - Jul 1920 		8.31%
141 out of 1696
12 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month
12 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

Annualized Rolling Returns - 13 Years (156 months)

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Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return +6.33% +14.11%
Apr 1980 - Mar 1993 		+1.82%
Sep 1929 - Aug 1942 		0.00%
0 out of 1684
US Inflation Adjusted +4.44% +11.32%
Jul 1920 - Jun 1933 		-2.06%
Oct 1968 - Sep 1981 		6.89%
116 out of 1684
13 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month
13 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

Annualized Rolling Returns - 14 Years (168 months)

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Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return +6.26% +13.58%
Oct 1981 - Sep 1995 		+2.46%
Sep 1882 - Aug 1896 		0.00%
0 out of 1672
US Inflation Adjusted +4.32% +10.33%
Dec 1872 - Nov 1886 		-2.56%
Aug 1906 - Jul 1920 		4.96%
83 out of 1672
14 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month
14 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

Annualized Rolling Returns - 15 Years (180 months)

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Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return +6.23% +13.88%
Aug 1982 - Jul 1997 		+2.53%
Sep 1881 - Aug 1896 		0.00%
0 out of 1660
US Inflation Adjusted +4.26% +10.22%
Jan 1921 - Dec 1935 		-2.37%
Aug 1905 - Jul 1920 		3.92%
65 out of 1660
15 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month
15 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

Annualized Rolling Returns - 16 Years (192 months)

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Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return +6.28% +13.92%
Jul 1982 - Jun 1998 		+2.82%
Jun 1881 - May 1897 		0.00%
0 out of 1648
US Inflation Adjusted +4.23% +10.60%
Aug 1920 - Jul 1936 		-1.39%
Aug 1904 - Jul 1920 		3.34%
55 out of 1648
16 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month
16 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

Annualized Rolling Returns - 17 Years (204 months)

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Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return +6.31% +13.66%
Jul 1982 - Jun 1999 		+3.22%
May 1881 - Apr 1898 		0.00%
0 out of 1636
US Inflation Adjusted +4.24% +10.12%
Jul 1982 - Jun 1999 		-1.20%
Jun 1903 - May 1920 		3.30%
54 out of 1636
17 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month
17 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

Annualized Rolling Returns - 18 Years (216 months)

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Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return +6.30% +13.67%
Apr 1980 - Mar 1998 		+3.72%
May 1880 - Apr 1898 		0.00%
0 out of 1624
US Inflation Adjusted +4.24% +9.76%
Apr 1982 - Mar 2000 		-1.29%
Jun 1902 - May 1920 		2.52%
41 out of 1624
18 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month
18 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

Annualized Rolling Returns - 19 Years (228 months)

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Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return +6.38% +13.42%
Apr 1980 - Mar 1999 		+3.76%
Sep 1929 - Aug 1948 		0.00%
0 out of 1612
US Inflation Adjusted +4.27% +9.54%
Oct 1981 - Sep 2000 		-1.58%
Jul 1901 - Jun 1920 		1.36%
22 out of 1612
19 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month
19 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

Annualized Rolling Returns - 20 Years (240 months)

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Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return +6.39% +13.30%
Apr 1980 - Mar 2000 		+3.62%
Jul 1901 - Jun 1921 		0.00%
0 out of 1600
US Inflation Adjusted +4.28% +9.08%
Apr 1980 - Mar 2000 		-0.69%
Jul 1901 - Jun 1921 		1.19%
19 out of 1600
20 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month
20 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

To obtain comprehensive information, please consult the Stocks/Bonds 40/60 Portfolio: ETF allocation and returns page.