Stocks/Bonds 20/80 To EUR Bond Hedged Portfolio: Rolling Returns

Simulation Settings
Period: August 1953 - June 2025 (~72 years)
Initial Amount: 1€
Rebalancing: at every Jan 1st
Currency: EUR
Inflation: Eurozone
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When holding the Stocks/Bonds 20/80 To EUR Bond Hedged Portfolio, how long should you stay invested to have high probability to achieve a positive return?

Over the selected period (~72 years), the longest duration with a negative return was 51 months (from August 2019 to October 2023).

This indicates that, within the same timeframe, any rolling period of 52 months or more has consistently resulted in a positive return.

Understanding this metric is crucial as it highlights the importance of a safe investment horizon. Knowing the minimum duration required to likely see positive returns helps investors set realistic expectations and reinforces the strategy of staying invested through market cycles. This approach can mitigate the emotional reactions to short-term market fluctuations and enhance the likelihood of achieving financial goals.

Previous vs subsequent Returns

Is there a correlation between past and future returns over all 10-year rolling periods?

The following chart illustrates the relationship between past returns (x-axis) and subsequent returns (y-axis).

Data points are aggregated to show occurrences, and you can zoom in by clicking or drawing over the desired area.

STOCKS/BONDS 20/80 TO EUR BOND HEDGED PORTFOLIO
Previous vs Next Returns - 10 Years annualized
Time Period: 1 July 1995 - 30 June 2025 (30 Years)
Time Period: 1 August 1953 - 30 June 2025 (~72 years)
30 Years
(1995/07 - 2025/06)
All Data
(1953/08 - 2025/06)

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As of Jun 30, 2025, the annualized return of the previous 10 years has been 2.86%.

Rolling Returns

A rolling return is a measure of investment performance that calculates the return of an investment over a set period of time, with the starting date rolling forward. This approach can provide a more accurate representation of the investment's historical performance and helps investors to evaluate the investment's consistency over time.

STOCKS/BONDS 20/80 TO EUR BOND HEDGED PORTFOLIO
Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Returns - Inflation Adjusted
Time Period: 1 July 1995 - 30 June 2025 (30 Years)
Time Period: 1 August 1953 - 30 June 2025 (~72 years)
30 Years
(1995/07 - 2025/06)
All Data
(1953/08 - 2025/06)
Eurozone Inflation Adjusted:

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Rolling Period Analysis

By selecting the 'Rolling Period', the chart and data will update. To study a different date range, change the simulation settings.

STOCKS/BONDS 20/80 TO EUR BOND HEDGED PORTFOLIO
Rolling Returns Chart
Rolling Returns Chart - Inflation Adjusted
Time Period: 1 August 1953 - 30 June 2025 (~72 years)
Over Time
Histogram
Eurozone Inflation Adjusted:

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Swipe left to see all data
Worst Median Best Negative Periods
-14.49%
Jan 2022 - Dec 2022
+5.96% +35.50%
Jul 1982 - Jun 1983
12.91%
110 out of 852
-21.91%
Nov 2021 - Oct 2022
+3.61% +32.04%
Jul 1982 - Jun 1983
26.41%
225 out of 852
-7.42%
Nov 2021 - Oct 2023
+6.12% +23.37%
Oct 1981 - Sep 1983
6.43%
54 out of 840
-13.23%
Nov 2021 - Oct 2023
+3.84% +19.97%
Jul 1984 - Jun 1986
18.57%
156 out of 840
-2.68%
Nov 2020 - Oct 2023
+6.09% +19.56%
Jul 1982 - Jun 1985
4.71%
39 out of 828
-8.02%
Nov 2020 - Oct 2023
+3.80% +16.67%
Jul 1982 - Jun 1985
15.70%
130 out of 828
-0.66%
Nov 2019 - Oct 2023
+5.73% +18.25%
Apr 1982 - Mar 1986
0.25%
2 out of 816
-4.71%
Nov 2019 - Oct 2023
+3.61% +15.95%
Jul 1982 - Jun 1986
14.22%
116 out of 816
+0.95%
Jun 1965 - May 1970
+5.92% +16.77%
Sep 1981 - Aug 1986
0.00%
0 out of 804
-2.99%
Oct 1976 - Sep 1981
+3.58% +14.10%
Sep 1981 - Aug 1986
15.42%
124 out of 804
+0.96%
Nov 2017 - Oct 2023
+6.10% +15.71%
Apr 1980 - Mar 1986
0.00%
0 out of 792
-3.24%
Sep 1968 - Aug 1974
+3.75% +12.00%
Oct 1981 - Sep 1987
13.64%
108 out of 792
+1.20%
Nov 2016 - Oct 2023
+6.00% +14.24%
Apr 1980 - Mar 1987
0.00%
0 out of 780
-2.01%
Apr 1973 - Mar 1980
+3.65% +11.03%
Apr 1980 - Mar 1987
11.79%
92 out of 780
+1.52%
Nov 2015 - Oct 2023
+6.08% +12.78%
May 1990 - Apr 1998
0.00%
0 out of 768
-2.38%
Mar 1972 - Feb 1980
+3.74% +10.57%
Oct 1981 - Sep 1989
12.50%
96 out of 768
+1.97%
Nov 2014 - Oct 2023
+5.91% +12.33%
Jul 1984 - Jun 1993
0.00%
0 out of 756
-2.55%
Apr 1971 - Mar 1980
+3.86% +9.80%
Jul 1984 - Jun 1993
8.07%
61 out of 756
+2.52%
Apr 2015 - Mar 2025
+5.81% +12.32%
Oct 1981 - Sep 1991
0.00%
0 out of 744
-1.73%
Oct 1971 - Sep 1981
+4.01% +9.66%
Oct 1981 - Sep 1991
7.26%
54 out of 744
+2.59%
Nov 2012 - Oct 2023
+5.86% +12.83%
Jul 1982 - Jun 1993
0.00%
0 out of 732
-1.21%
Apr 1971 - Mar 1982
+3.78% +10.21%
Jul 1982 - Jun 1993
6.01%
44 out of 732
+3.09%
Nov 2011 - Oct 2023
+5.85% +13.03%
Oct 1981 - Sep 1993
0.00%
0 out of 720
-1.08%
Apr 1968 - Mar 1980
+3.64% +10.17%
Oct 1981 - Sep 1993
3.89%
28 out of 720
+3.34%
Apr 1967 - Mar 1980
+5.80% +12.28%
Apr 1980 - Mar 1993
0.00%
0 out of 708
-1.16%
Oct 1968 - Sep 1981
+3.63% +9.17%
Jul 1982 - Jun 1995
3.95%
28 out of 708
+3.63%
Apr 1966 - Mar 1980
+5.95% +12.09%
Oct 1981 - Sep 1995
0.00%
0 out of 696
-0.72%
Oct 1967 - Sep 1981
+3.63% +9.24%
Oct 1981 - Sep 1995
2.87%
20 out of 696
+3.56%
Apr 1965 - Mar 1980
+6.05% +12.01%
Aug 1982 - Jul 1997
0.00%
0 out of 684
-0.60%
Apr 1965 - Mar 1980
+3.55% +9.43%
Aug 1982 - Jul 1997
1.75%
12 out of 684
+3.74%
Apr 1964 - Mar 1980
+6.11% +12.16%
Oct 1981 - Sep 1997
0.00%
0 out of 672
-0.44%
Oct 1965 - Sep 1981
+3.54% +9.48%
Jul 1982 - Jun 1998
1.19%
8 out of 672
+3.82%
Nov 2006 - Oct 2023
+6.40% +11.88%
Oct 1981 - Sep 1998
0.00%
0 out of 660
-0.35%
Oct 1964 - Sep 1981
+3.66% +9.24%
Jul 1982 - Jun 1999
0.61%
4 out of 660
+3.83%
Apr 1962 - Mar 1980
+6.59% +11.85%
Apr 1980 - Mar 1998
0.00%
0 out of 648
-0.09%
Oct 1963 - Sep 1981
+3.64% +8.94%
Apr 1982 - Mar 2000
0.31%
2 out of 648
+3.81%
Nov 2004 - Oct 2023
+6.82% +11.57%
Apr 1980 - Mar 1999
0.00%
0 out of 636
+0.02%
Apr 1961 - Mar 1980
+3.67% +8.98%
Oct 1981 - Sep 2000
0.00%
0 out of 636
+3.84%
Nov 2003 - Oct 2023
+6.87% +11.37%
Apr 1980 - Mar 2000
0.00%
0 out of 624
+0.16%
Oct 1961 - Sep 1981
+3.87% +8.54%
Apr 1980 - Mar 2000
0.00%
0 out of 624
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