Simplified Permanent Portfolio: Rolling Returns

Holding the Simplified Permanent Portfolio, how long should you stay invested to have high probability to obtain a positive return?

Considering all the available data source (~154 years), the longest period with a negative return lasted 80 months (from November 1925 to June 1932).

This means that every rolling period of 81 months or above has always granted a positive return.

To obtain comprehensive information, please consult the Simplified Permanent Portfolio: ETF allocation and returns page.

Previous vs subsequent Returns

Considering all 10-year rolling periods, is there a relationship between past and future returns, at a given date?

In the following chart, we show how past returns (x-axis) and subsequent returns (y-axis) are related.

Neighboring data is aggregated and occurrences are indicated. It is possible to zoom by clicking or drawing the desired area

The annualized return of the last 10 years has been 4.99% (updated at Jun 30, 2024).

Rolling Returns

A rolling return is a measure of investment performance that calculates the return of an investment over a set period of time, with the starting date rolling forward. This approach can provide a more accurate representation of the investment's historical performance and helps investors to evaluate the investment's consistency over time.

Annualized Rolling Returns - 1 Year (12 months)

Annualized Rolling Returns - 2 Years (24 months)

Annualized Rolling Returns - 3 Years (36 months)

Annualized Rolling Returns - 4 Years (48 months)

Annualized Rolling Returns - 5 Years (60 months)

Annualized Rolling Returns - 6 Years (72 months)

Annualized Rolling Returns - 7 Years (84 months)

Annualized Rolling Returns - 8 Years (96 months)

Annualized Rolling Returns - 9 Years (108 months)

Annualized Rolling Returns - 10 Years (120 months)

Annualized Rolling Returns - 11 Years (132 months)

Annualized Rolling Returns - 12 Years (144 months)

Annualized Rolling Returns - 13 Years (156 months)

Annualized Rolling Returns - 14 Years (168 months)

Annualized Rolling Returns - 15 Years (180 months)

Annualized Rolling Returns - 16 Years (192 months)

Annualized Rolling Returns - 17 Years (204 months)

Annualized Rolling Returns - 18 Years (216 months)

Annualized Rolling Returns - 19 Years (228 months)

Annualized Rolling Returns - 20 Years (240 months)

To obtain comprehensive information, please consult the Simplified Permanent Portfolio: ETF allocation and returns page.