Consolidated Returns as of 30 September 2024
Live Update: Oct 21 2024, 04:00PM Eastern Time
Rebalancing: at every Jan 1st
Currency: USD
October 2014
September 2024
March 2010
September 2024
The Simplified Permanent Portfolio 2x Leveraged can be implemented with 3 ETFs. This portfolio has a medium risk, signifying moderate fluctuations in value. It is suitable for investors with a balanced approach to risk and return, seeking steady growth while tolerating some level of volatility.
The asset allocation is the following: 25% on the Stock Market, 50% on Fixed Income, 25% on Commodities. In general, bonds are useful for mitigating overall portfolio risk, especially if they are issued by national entities or highly reliable companies. This portfolio has a 50% allocation to bonds, leading to its classification as medium risk.
As of September 2024, over the analyzed timeframe, the Simplified Permanent Portfolio 2x Leveraged obtained a 9.97% compound annual return, with a 13.78% standard deviation. It suffered a maximum drawdown of -31.96% that required 32 months to be recovered.
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Asset Allocation and ETFs
The Simplified Permanent Portfolio 2x Leveraged has the following asset allocation:
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The Simplified Permanent Portfolio 2x Leveraged can be implemented with the following ETFs:
| Weight (%) |
ETF Ticker |
ETF Currency |
ETF Name | Investment Themes (Orig.Currency) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25.00 |
SSO
|
USD | ProShares Ultra S&P 500 | 2x, Equity, U.S., Large Cap (USD) |
| 50.00 |
UST
|
USD | ProShares Ultra 7-10 Year Treasury | 2x, Bond, U.S., Intermediate-Term (USD) |
| 25.00 |
UGL
|
USD | ProShares Ultra Gold | 2x, Commodity, Gold (USD) |
Most of Lazy Portfolios are made of common components (asset classes), very simple and well defined. For a more complete view, find out the most common ETFs you can use to build your portfolio.
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Portfolio and ETF Returns as of Sep 30, 2024
The Simplified Permanent Portfolio 2x Leveraged guaranteed the following returns.
- no fees or capital gain taxes.
- rebalancing: at every January 1st. How do returns change with different rebalancing strategies?
- dividend reinvestment, when applicable.
| Chg (%) | Return (%) | Return (%) as of Sep 30, 2024 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Day | Time ET(*) | Oct 2024 |
YTD
(9M) |
1M | 6M | 1Y | 5Y | 10Y |
MAX
(~15Y) |
|||
| Simplified Permanent Portfolio 2x Leveraged | -0.85 | -0.30 | 24.12 | 4.74 | 17.07 | 45.26 | 8.14 | 8.20 | 9.97 | |||
| Components | ||||||||||||
|
SSO
|
USD | ProShares Ultra S&P 500 | -0.31 | 04:00PM, Oct 21 2024 | 2.99 | 39.49 | 3.67 | 16.81 | 70.35 | 23.42 | 20.46 | 23.10 |
|
UST
|
USD | ProShares Ultra 7-10 Year Treasury | -1.56 | 03:03PM, Oct 21 2024 | -5.33 | 3.43 | 2.07 | 8.00 | 15.12 | -5.21 | -0.08 | 2.93 |
|
UGL
|
USD | ProShares Ultra Gold | 0.03 | 04:00PM, Oct 21 2024 | 6.47 | 50.13 | 9.74 | 32.70 | 82.30 | 15.36 | 8.98 | 5.18 |
| Returns over 1 year are annualized | ||||||||||||
| (*) Eastern Time (ET - America/New York) | ||||||||||||
In 2023, the Simplified Permanent Portfolio 2x Leveraged granted a 1.78% dividend yield. If you are interested in getting periodic income, please refer to the Simplified Permanent Portfolio 2x Leveraged: Dividend Yield page.
Capital Growth as of Sep 30, 2024
The Inflation Adjusted Capital would be 1.66$, with a net total return of 65.99% (5.20% annualized).
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The Inflation Adjusted Capital would be 2.76$, with a net total return of 175.99% (7.21% annualized).
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Portfolio Metrics as of Sep 30, 2024
Metrics of Simplified Permanent Portfolio 2x Leveraged, updated as of 30 September 2024, provide a comprehensive overview of the portfolio's performance and risk characteristics.
These metrics include detailed data on returns, volatility, drawdowns and other key performance indicators. By examining them, you can gain insights into how the portfolio has performed over various time periods and understand its risk profile.
- no fees or capital gain taxes.
- rebalancing: at every January 1st. How do returns change with different rebalancing strategies?
- dividend reinvestment, when applicable.
| Metrics as of Sep 30, 2024 | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
YTD
(9M) |
1M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | 5Y | 10Y |
MAX
(~15Y) |
|
| Investment Return (%) | 24.12 | 4.74 | 13.73 | 17.07 | 45.26 | 4.53 | 8.14 | 8.20 | 9.97 |
| Growth of 1$ | 1.24 | 1.05 | 1.14 | 1.17 | 1.45 | 1.14 | 1.48 | 2.20 | 4.00 |
| US Inflation (%) | 1.93 | 0.18 | 0.52 | 0.79 | 2.41 | 4.74 | 4.18 | 2.86 | 2.57 |
| Returns / Inflation rates over 1 year are annualized. | |||||||||
|
DRAWDOWN
|
Current | 1Y | 3Y | 5Y | 10Y | MAX | |||
| Deepest Drawdown Depth (%) | 0.00 | -3.99 | -31.96 | -31.96 | -31.96 | -31.96 | |||
| Start to Recovery (# months) | 2 | 32 | 32 | 32 | 32 | ||||
| Start (yyyy mm) | 2024 04 | 2022 01 | 2022 01 | 2022 01 | 2022 01 | ||||
| Start to Bottom (# months) | 1 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | ||||
| Bottom (yyyy mm) | 2024 04 | 2022 09 | 2022 09 | 2022 09 | 2022 09 | ||||
| Bottom to End (# months) | 1 | 23 | 23 | 23 | 23 | ||||
| End (yyyy mm) | 2024 05 | 2024 08 | 2024 08 | 2024 08 | 2024 08 | ||||
| Longest Drawdown Depth (%) | -0.59 |
same |
same |
same |
same |
||||
| Start to Recovery (# months) | 3 | ||||||||
| Start (yyyy mm) | 2024 01 | 2022 01 | 2022 01 | 2022 01 | 2022 01 | ||||
| Start to Bottom (# months) | 2 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | ||||
| Bottom (yyyy mm) | 2024 02 | 2022 09 | 2022 09 | 2022 09 | 2022 09 | ||||
| Bottom to End (# months) | 1 | 23 | 23 | 23 | 23 | ||||
| End (yyyy mm) | 2024 03 | 2024 08 | 2024 08 | 2024 08 | 2024 08 | ||||
| Longest negative period (# months) | 2 | 32 | 48 | 50 | 50 | ||||
| Start (yyyy mm) | 2024 01 | 2021 10 | 2019 11 | 2019 09 | 2019 09 | ||||
| End (yyyy mm) | 2024 02 | 2024 05 | 2023 10 | 2023 10 | 2023 10 | ||||
| Annualized Return (%) | -3.50 | -0.81 | -0.11 | -0.08 | -0.08 | ||||
| Deepest Drawdown Depth (%) | -7.06 | -4.29 | -35.52 | -36.13 | -36.13 | -36.13 | |||
| Start to Recovery (# months) | 49* | 3 | 33* | 49* | 49* | 49* | |||
| Start (yyyy mm) | 2024 04 | 2022 01 | 2020 09 | 2020 09 | 2020 09 | ||||
| Start to Bottom (# months) | 1 | 10 | 26 | 26 | 26 | ||||
| Bottom (yyyy mm) | 2024 04 | 2022 10 | 2022 10 | 2022 10 | 2022 10 | ||||
| Bottom to End (# months) | 2 | 23 | 23 | 23 | 23 | ||||
| End (yyyy mm) | 2024 06 | - | - | - | - | ||||
| Longest Drawdown Depth (%) | -1.33 |
same |
same |
same |
same |
||||
| Start to Recovery (# months) | 3 | ||||||||
| Start (yyyy mm) | 2024 01 | 2022 01 | 2020 09 | 2020 09 | 2020 09 | ||||
| Start to Bottom (# months) | 2 | 10 | 26 | 26 | 26 | ||||
| Bottom (yyyy mm) | 2024 02 | 2022 10 | 2022 10 | 2022 10 | 2022 10 | ||||
| Bottom to End (# months) | 1 | 23 | 23 | 23 | 23 | ||||
| End (yyyy mm) | 2024 03 | - | - | - | - | ||||
| Longest negative period (# months) | 2 | 36* | 55 | 88 | 88 | ||||
| Start (yyyy mm) | 2024 01 | 2021 10 | 2019 10 | 2016 07 | 2016 07 | ||||
| End (yyyy mm) | 2024 02 | 2024 09 | 2024 04 | 2023 10 | 2023 10 | ||||
| Annualized Return (%) | -7.72 | -0.19 | -0.15 | -0.26 | -0.26 | ||||
| Drawdowns / Negative periods marked with * are in progress | |||||||||
|
RISK INDICATORS
|
1Y | 3Y | 5Y | 10Y | MAX | ||||
| Standard Deviation (%) | 12.78 | 19.13 | 17.01 | 14.34 | 13.78 | ||||
| Sharpe Ratio | 3.12 | 0.06 | 0.35 | 0.47 | 0.65 | ||||
| Sortino Ratio | 4.26 | 0.08 | 0.48 | 0.66 | 0.91 | ||||
| Ulcer Index | 1.12 | 17.85 | 14.09 | 10.77 | 9.17 | ||||
| Ratio: Return / Standard Deviation | 3.54 | 0.24 | 0.48 | 0.57 | 0.72 | ||||
| Ratio: Return / Deepest Drawdown | 11.33 | 0.14 | 0.25 | 0.26 | 0.31 | ||||
| Positive Months (%) | 75.00 | 55.55 | 56.66 | 56.66 | 58.28 | ||||
| Positive Months | 9 | 20 | 34 | 68 | 102 | ||||
| Negative Months | 3 | 16 | 26 | 52 | 73 | ||||
|
LONG TERM RETURNS
|
1Y | 3Y | 5Y | 10Y | MAX | ||||
| Best 10 Years Return (%) - Annualized | 8.20 | 12.35 | |||||||
| Worst 10 Years Return (%) - Annualized | 3.90 | ||||||||
| Best 10 Years Return (%) - Annualized | 5.20 | 10.43 | |||||||
| Worst 10 Years Return (%) - Annualized | 1.34 | ||||||||
|
TIMEFRAMES
|
1M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | 5Y | 10Y | MAX | |
| ··· As of Sep 2024 - Over the previous 10Y | |||||||||
| Best Rolling Return (%) - Annualized | 45.26 | 20.61 | 14.36 | 8.20 | |||||
| Worst Rolling Return (%) - Annualized | -29.22 | -6.84 | 3.07 | ||||||
| Positive Periods (%) | 76.1 | 80.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 | |||||
| Best Rolling Return (%) - Annualized | 41.84 | 16.54 | 12.22 | 5.20 | |||||
| Worst Rolling Return (%) - Annualized | -34.31 | -11.89 | -0.75 | ||||||
| Positive Periods (%) | 67.8 | 69.4 | 96.7 | 100.0 | |||||
| 95% VaR - Value at Risk (%) - Cumulative | 6.06 | 9.56 | 12.21 | ||||||
| 95% CVaR - Conditional Value at Risk (%) | 7.78 | 12.53 | 16.42 | ||||||
| 99% VaR - Value at Risk (%) - Cumulative | 8.88 | 14.44 | 19.12 | ||||||
| 99% CVaR - Conditional Value at Risk (%) | 10.68 | 17.55 | 23.51 | ||||||
| Short term VaRs: analytical | |||||||||
| Safe Withdrawal Rate (%) | 79.18 | 25.88 | 20.41 | 12.71 | |||||
| Perpetual Withdrawal Rate (%) | --- | --- | --- | 5.05 | |||||
| % based on initial capital, inflation-adj. monthly withdrawals afterwards | Credits: BestRetirementPortfolio.com | |||||||||
| ··· All available data (Mar 2010 - Sep 2024) | |||||||||
| Best Rolling Return (%) - Annualized | 45.26 | 20.61 | 14.47 | 12.35 | |||||
| Worst Rolling Return (%) - Annualized | -29.22 | -6.84 | 3.07 | 3.90 | |||||
| Positive Periods (%) | 78.6 | 87.8 | 100.0 | 100.0 | |||||
| Best Rolling Return (%) - Annualized | 41.84 | 17.06 | 12.66 | 10.43 | |||||
| Worst Rolling Return (%) - Annualized | -34.31 | -11.89 | -0.75 | 1.34 | |||||
| Positive Periods (%) | 72.5 | 81.4 | 98.2 | 100.0 | |||||
| 95% VaR - Value at Risk (%) - Cumulative | 5.67 | 8.72 | 10.79 | 15.01 | 6.28 | ||||
| 95% CVaR - Conditional Value at Risk (%) | 7.32 | 11.58 | 14.84 | 23.49 | 13.52 | ||||
| 99% VaR - Value at Risk (%) - Cumulative | 8.38 | 13.41 | 17.43 | 26.74 | 19.14 | ||||
| 99% CVaR - Conditional Value at Risk (%) | 10.11 | 16.40 | 21.66 | 29.22 | 19.14 | ||||
| Short term VaRs: analytical | 1+ year VaRs: historical data | |||||||||
| Safe Withdrawal Rate (%) | 79.18 | 25.88 | 20.41 | 11.93 | |||||
| Perpetual Withdrawal Rate (%) | --- | --- | --- | 1.49 | |||||
| % based on initial capital, inflation-adj. monthly withdrawals afterwards | Credits: BestRetirementPortfolio.com | |||||||||
- Annualized Portfolio Return: it's the annualized geometric mean return of the portfolio.
- Deepest/Longest Drawdown: a drawdown refers to the decline in value from a relative peak value to a relative trough. The deepest (or maximum) drawdown is the maximum observed loss from a peak to a trough of a portfolio before a new peak is attained. The longest drawdown is the period observed from a peak to the subsequent peak with the greatest duration.
- Longest negative period: it's the maximum period for which an overall negative return has been observed.
- Standard Deviation: it's a measure of the dispersion of returns around the mean.
- Sharpe Ratio: it's a measure of risk-adjusted performance of the portfolio. It's calculated by dividing the excess return of the portfolio over the risk-free rate by the portfolio standard deviation. The risk-free rate here considered is the 1-3 Mth T-Bill return.
- Sortino Ratio: another measure of risk-adjusted performance of the portfolio. It's a modification of the Sharpe Ratio (same formula but the denominator is the portfolio downside standard deviation).
- Ulcer Index: it's a measure of downside risk that quantifies the depth and duration of drawdowns in an investment portfolio.
- Best/Worst 10Y returns: the best and the worst 10-year return over a time frame.
- Rolling Returns: N-year returns over a time frame, calculated over all the available data source (best, worst, % of positive returns). Each rolling period, longer than the longest negative period, yielded a non-negative minimum return.
- Value at Risk (VaR): it's an evaluation of a cumulative worst-case loss (in absolute value), associated with a probability (95%-99%) and a time horizon. For short term, it's calculated based on the expected return and standard deviation, assuming a normal distribution of monthly returns. For long term is retrieved by the historical rolling return data.
- Conditional Value at Risk (CVaR): it represents the average expected loss if that worst-case threshold (95%-99%) is ever crossed.
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Portfolio Components Correlation
Correlation measures to what degree the returns of two assets move in relation to each other. It is a statistical measure that describes the extent to which the returns of one asset are related to the returns of another asset.
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- A correlation of +1 indicates that the returns of the two assets move in perfect synchrony; when one asset's returns go up, the other asset's returns also go up by the same percentage, and vice versa. This perfect positive correlation implies that the assets perform similarly in different market conditions.
- A correlation of -1 indicates a perfect inverse relationship between the returns of the two assets. When one asset's returns go up, the other asset's returns go down by the same percentage. This perfect negative correlation suggests that the assets move in opposite directions, providing a diversification benefit by reducing overall portfolio risk.
- A correlation of 0 means that there is no linear relationship between the returns of the two assets. The returns of one asset do not predict the returns of the other.
Drawdowns
A drawdown refers to the decline in value from a relative peak value to a relative trough. A maximum drawdown is the maximum observed loss from a peak to a trough of a portfolio before a new peak is attained.
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Rolling Returns
Simplified Permanent Portfolio 2x Leveraged: Rolling Returns
A rolling return is a measure of investment performance that calculates the return of an investment over a set period of time, with the starting date rolling forward. This approach can provide a more accurate representation of the investment's historical performance and helps investors to evaluate the investment's consistency over time.
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Seasonality
In which months is it better to invest in Simplified Permanent Portfolio 2x Leveraged?
Both the Average Return and the Gain Frequency (Win %) are useful to get an idea of what happened in the past. They are retrieved considering the time period from March 2010 to September 2024.
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Monthly Returns
This section provides a visual/tabular representation of the performance variability in the Simplified Permanent Portfolio 2x Leveraged over time. It illustrates the distribution of monthly returns, showcasing the range and frequency of positive and negative returns.
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Portfolio efficiency
The following portfolios granted a higher return over 10 Years and a less severe drawdown at the same time.
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In the following table, you can compare the current portfolio with a list of famous portfolios. Metrics are calculated over the last 10 Years.
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The following portfolios share asset allocation strategy and/or similar asset weights.
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