JL Collins Simple Path to Wealth Portfolio: Rolling Returns

Data Source: from January 1871 to March 2024 (~153 years)
Consolidated Returns as of 31 March 2024

Holding the JL Collins Simple Path to Wealth Portfolio, how long should you stay invested to have high probability to obtain a positive return?

Considering all the available data source (~153 years), the longest period with a negative return lasted 163 months (from December 1928 to June 1942).

This means that every rolling period of 164 months or above has always granted a positive return.

To obtain comprehensive information, please consult the JL Collins Simple Path to Wealth Portfolio: ETF allocation and returns page.

Previous vs subsequent Returns

Considering all 10-year rolling periods, is there a relationship between past and future returns, at a given date?

In the following chart, we show how past returns (x-axis) and subsequent returns (y-axis) are related.

Neighboring data is aggregated and occurrences are indicated. It is possible to zoom by clicking or drawing the desired area

JL COLLINS SIMPLE PATH TO WEALTH PORTFOLIO
Previous vs Next Returns - 10 Years annualized
Updated to March 2024

The annualized return of the last 10 years has been 9.64% (updated at Mar 31, 2024).

Rolling Returns

A rolling return is a measure of investment performance that calculates the return of an investment over a set period of time, with the starting date rolling forward. This approach can provide a more accurate representation of the investment's historical performance and helps investors to evaluate the investment's consistency over time.

JL COLLINS SIMPLE PATH TO WEALTH PORTFOLIO
Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Returns - Inflation Adjusted
Data Source: 1 April 1994 - 31 March 2024 (30 Years)
Data Source: 1 January 1871 - 31 March 2024 (~153 years)
Inflation Adjusted:

Annualized Rolling Returns - 1 Year (12 months)

Swipe left to see all data
Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return +9.40% +109.11%
Jul 1932 - Jun 1933 		-54.20%
Jul 1931 - Jun 1932 		24.34%
445 out of 1828
US Inflation Adjusted +7.30% +123.93%
Jul 1932 - Jun 1933 		-49.15%
Jul 1931 - Jun 1932 		29.87%
546 out of 1828
1 Year Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month
1 Year Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

Annualized Rolling Returns - 2 Years (24 months)

Swipe left to see all data
Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return +8.85% +43.49%
Jul 1932 - Jun 1934 		-42.58%
Jun 1930 - May 1932 		17.51%
318 out of 1816
US Inflation Adjusted +6.58% +44.56%
Jul 1932 - Jun 1934 		-36.23%
Jun 1930 - May 1932 		23.62%
429 out of 1816
2 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month
2 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

Annualized Rolling Returns - 3 Years (36 months)

Swipe left to see all data
Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return +8.69% +34.94%
Mar 1933 - Feb 1936 		-32.34%
Jul 1929 - Jun 1932 		12.64%
228 out of 1804
US Inflation Adjusted +6.45% +31.25%
Mar 1933 - Feb 1936 		-26.97%
Jul 1929 - Jun 1932 		18.57%
335 out of 1804
3 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month
3 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

Annualized Rolling Returns - 4 Years (48 months)

Swipe left to see all data
Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return +8.53% +32.83%
Jul 1932 - Jun 1936 		-20.47%
Jun 1928 - May 1932 		8.20%
147 out of 1792
US Inflation Adjusted +6.48% +32.34%
Jul 1932 - Jun 1936 		-15.81%
Jun 1928 - May 1932 		16.18%
290 out of 1792
4 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month
4 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

Annualized Rolling Returns - 5 Years (60 months)

Swipe left to see all data
Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return +8.61% +28.33%
Jun 1932 - May 1937 		-12.63%
Jun 1927 - May 1932 		4.94%
88 out of 1780
US Inflation Adjusted +6.50% +27.05%
Jun 1932 - May 1937 		-10.45%
Jan 1916 - Dec 1920 		15.17%
270 out of 1780
5 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month
5 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

Annualized Rolling Returns - 6 Years (72 months)

Swipe left to see all data
Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return +8.46% +22.81%
Sep 1923 - Aug 1929 		-7.87%
Jul 1926 - Jun 1932 		3.79%
67 out of 1768
US Inflation Adjusted +6.26% +22.57%
Sep 1923 - Aug 1929 		-8.26%
Oct 1968 - Sep 1974 		11.60%
205 out of 1768
6 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month
6 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

Annualized Rolling Returns - 7 Years (84 months)

Swipe left to see all data
Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return +8.30% +19.66%
Apr 1980 - Mar 1987 		-4.94%
Jul 1925 - Jun 1932 		2.16%
38 out of 1756
US Inflation Adjusted +6.01% +19.55%
Sep 1921 - Aug 1928 		-6.34%
Oct 1967 - Sep 1974 		9.91%
174 out of 1756
7 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month
7 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

Annualized Rolling Returns - 8 Years (96 months)

Swipe left to see all data
Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return +8.10% +21.46%
Sep 1921 - Aug 1929 		-3.67%
Apr 1930 - Mar 1938 		0.92%
16 out of 1744
US Inflation Adjusted +6.01% +21.80%
Sep 1921 - Aug 1929 		-5.92%
Aug 1912 - Jul 1920 		10.67%
186 out of 1744
8 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month
8 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

Annualized Rolling Returns - 9 Years (108 months)

Swipe left to see all data
Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return +8.01% +17.88%
Sep 1920 - Aug 1929 		-3.07%
Apr 1929 - Mar 1938 		1.15%
20 out of 1732
US Inflation Adjusted +6.19% +19.99%
Sep 1920 - Aug 1929 		-5.90%
Jul 1911 - Jun 1920 		9.76%
169 out of 1732
9 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month
9 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

Annualized Rolling Returns - 10 Years (120 months)

Swipe left to see all data
Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return +7.99% +16.47%
Sep 1977 - Aug 1987 		-1.79%
Sep 1929 - Aug 1939 		0.58%
10 out of 1720
US Inflation Adjusted +6.25% +16.35%
Jun 1920 - May 1930 		-4.42%
Jul 1911 - Jun 1921 		9.30%
160 out of 1720
10 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month
10 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

Annualized Rolling Returns - 11 Years (132 months)

Swipe left to see all data
Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return +8.00% +15.88%
Aug 1982 - Jul 1993 		-1.43%
Sep 1929 - Aug 1940 		0.41%
7 out of 1708
US Inflation Adjusted +6.44% +14.40%
Sep 1918 - Aug 1929 		-3.55%
Aug 1909 - Jul 1920 		7.44%
127 out of 1708
11 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month
11 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

Annualized Rolling Returns - 12 Years (144 months)

Swipe left to see all data
Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return +8.00% +15.98%
Oct 1974 - Sep 1986 		-0.96%
May 1930 - Apr 1942 		0.47%
8 out of 1696
US Inflation Adjusted +6.40% +12.82%
Jun 1949 - May 1961 		-2.62%
Jan 1909 - Dec 1920 		6.25%
106 out of 1696
12 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month
12 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

Annualized Rolling Returns - 13 Years (156 months)

Swipe left to see all data
Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return +7.92% +16.79%
Oct 1974 - Sep 1987 		-1.41%
Sep 1929 - Aug 1942 		0.53%
9 out of 1684
US Inflation Adjusted +6.30% +12.45%
Dec 1948 - Nov 1961 		-1.71%
Oct 1968 - Sep 1981 		5.82%
98 out of 1684
13 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month
13 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

Annualized Rolling Returns - 14 Years (168 months)

Swipe left to see all data
Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return +7.76% +15.79%
Jul 1984 - Jun 1998 		+0.67%
Dec 1928 - Nov 1942 		0.00%
0 out of 1672
US Inflation Adjusted +6.19% +12.20%
Jun 1932 - May 1946 		-2.13%
Aug 1906 - Jul 1920 		3.89%
65 out of 1672
14 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month
14 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

Annualized Rolling Returns - 15 Years (180 months)

Swipe left to see all data
Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return +7.76% +16.43%
Aug 1982 - Jul 1997 		+1.52%
Sep 1929 - Aug 1944 		0.00%
0 out of 1660
US Inflation Adjusted +6.12% +12.63%
Aug 1982 - Jul 1997 		-1.97%
Jan 1906 - Dec 1920 		2.29%
38 out of 1660
15 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month
15 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

Annualized Rolling Returns - 16 Years (192 months)

Swipe left to see all data
Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return +7.68% +16.41%
Jul 1982 - Jun 1998 		+2.03%
Jul 1916 - Jun 1932 		0.00%
0 out of 1648
US Inflation Adjusted +5.98% +12.70%
Jul 1982 - Jun 1998 		-1.25%
Sep 1905 - Aug 1921 		1.94%
32 out of 1648
16 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month
16 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

Annualized Rolling Returns - 17 Years (204 months)

Swipe left to see all data
Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return +7.70% +16.35%
Jul 1982 - Jun 1999 		+2.82%
Jul 1915 - Jun 1932 		0.00%
0 out of 1636
US Inflation Adjusted +5.81% +12.73%
Jul 1982 - Jun 1999 		-0.41%
Jun 1903 - May 1920 		0.73%
12 out of 1636
17 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month
17 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

Annualized Rolling Returns - 18 Years (216 months)

Swipe left to see all data
Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return +7.79% +16.12%
Apr 1982 - Mar 2000 		+2.80%
Jun 1914 - May 1932 		0.00%
0 out of 1624
US Inflation Adjusted +5.76% +12.37%
Apr 1982 - Mar 2000 		-0.77%
Aug 1902 - Jul 1920 		0.68%
11 out of 1624
18 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month
18 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

Annualized Rolling Returns - 19 Years (228 months)

Swipe left to see all data
Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return +7.76% +15.55%
Apr 1980 - Mar 1999 		+2.84%
Jun 1913 - May 1932 		0.00%
0 out of 1612
US Inflation Adjusted +5.86% +11.51%
Oct 1981 - Sep 2000 		-1.06%
Jul 1901 - Jun 1920 		1.12%
18 out of 1612
19 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month
19 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

Annualized Rolling Returns - 20 Years (240 months)

Swipe left to see all data
Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return +7.70% +15.70%
Apr 1980 - Mar 2000 		+2.55%
Jul 1912 - Jun 1932 		0.00%
0 out of 1600
US Inflation Adjusted +5.92% +11.39%
Apr 1980 - Mar 2000 		-0.53%
Jul 1901 - Jun 1921 		0.25%
4 out of 1600
20 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month
20 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

To obtain comprehensive information, please consult the JL Collins Simple Path to Wealth Portfolio: ETF allocation and returns page.