Scott Burns Couch Potato To EUR Portfolio: Rolling Returns

Simulation Settings
Period: January 1985 - June 2025 (~41 years)
Initial Amount: 1€
Rebalancing: at every Jan 1st
Currency: EUR
Inflation: Eurozone
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When holding the Scott Burns Couch Potato To EUR Portfolio, how long should you stay invested to have high probability to achieve a positive return?

Over the selected period (~41 years), the longest duration with a negative return was 120 months (from November 2000 to October 2010).

This indicates that, within the same timeframe, any rolling period of 121 months or more has consistently resulted in a positive return.

Understanding this metric is crucial as it highlights the importance of a safe investment horizon. Knowing the minimum duration required to likely see positive returns helps investors set realistic expectations and reinforces the strategy of staying invested through market cycles. This approach can mitigate the emotional reactions to short-term market fluctuations and enhance the likelihood of achieving financial goals.

Previous vs subsequent Returns

Is there a correlation between past and future returns over all 10-year rolling periods?

The following chart illustrates the relationship between past returns (x-axis) and subsequent returns (y-axis).

Data points are aggregated to show occurrences, and you can zoom in by clicking or drawing over the desired area.

SCOTT BURNS COUCH POTATO TO EUR PORTFOLIO
Previous vs Next Returns - 10 Years annualized
Time Period: 1 July 1995 - 30 June 2025 (30 Years)
Time Period: 1 January 1985 - 30 June 2025 (~41 years)
30 Years
(1995/07 - 2025/06)
All Data
(1985/01 - 2025/06)

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As of Jun 30, 2025, the annualized return of the previous 10 years has been 7.42%.

Rolling Returns

A rolling return is a measure of investment performance that calculates the return of an investment over a set period of time, with the starting date rolling forward. This approach can provide a more accurate representation of the investment's historical performance and helps investors to evaluate the investment's consistency over time.

SCOTT BURNS COUCH POTATO TO EUR PORTFOLIO
Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Returns - Inflation Adjusted
Time Period: 1 July 1995 - 30 June 2025 (30 Years)
Time Period: 1 January 1985 - 30 June 2025 (~41 years)
30 Years
(1995/07 - 2025/06)
All Data
(1985/01 - 2025/06)
Eurozone Inflation Adjusted:

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Rolling Period Analysis

By selecting the 'Rolling Period', the chart and data will update. To study a different date range, change the simulation settings.

SCOTT BURNS COUCH POTATO TO EUR PORTFOLIO
Rolling Returns Chart
Rolling Returns Chart - Inflation Adjusted
Time Period: 1 January 1985 - 30 June 2025 (~41 years)
Over Time
Histogram
Eurozone Inflation Adjusted:

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Swipe left to see all data
Worst Median Best Negative Periods
-23.05%
Apr 2002 - Mar 2003
+8.17% +55.03%
Aug 1996 - Jul 1997
25.89%
123 out of 475
-24.97%
Nov 1989 - Oct 1990
+6.13% +52.76%
Aug 1996 - Jul 1997
31.16%
148 out of 475
-13.64%
Jun 2001 - May 2003
+8.98% +33.24%
Aug 1995 - Jul 1997
17.49%
81 out of 463
-15.28%
Jun 2001 - May 2003
+6.56% +30.79%
Aug 1995 - Jul 1997
24.84%
115 out of 463
-7.31%
Mar 2006 - Feb 2009
+8.38% +29.36%
Apr 1995 - Mar 1998
14.19%
64 out of 451
-9.21%
Mar 2006 - Feb 2009
+6.03% +27.18%
Apr 1995 - Mar 1998
17.29%
78 out of 451
-5.52%
Nov 2000 - Oct 2004
+9.47% +27.42%
Sep 1996 - Aug 2000
10.25%
45 out of 439
-7.59%
Nov 2000 - Oct 2004
+6.64% +25.54%
Sep 1996 - Aug 2000
16.40%
72 out of 439
-2.70%
Jun 2001 - May 2006
+9.11% +24.86%
Apr 1995 - Mar 2000
6.09%
26 out of 427
-4.76%
Jun 2001 - May 2006
+6.25% +22.89%
Apr 1995 - Mar 2000
14.75%
63 out of 427
-2.75%
Apr 2002 - Mar 2008
+9.08% +23.15%
Nov 1994 - Oct 2000
5.30%
22 out of 415
-4.96%
Apr 2002 - Mar 2008
+6.35% +21.01%
Nov 1994 - Oct 2000
12.29%
51 out of 415
-3.15%
Mar 2002 - Feb 2009
+9.32% +19.08%
Jul 1994 - Jun 2001
5.46%
22 out of 403
-5.14%
Mar 2002 - Feb 2009
+6.69% +16.82%
Jul 1994 - Jun 2001
8.93%
36 out of 403
-3.04%
Jun 2001 - May 2009
+9.20% +20.71%
Sep 1992 - Aug 2000
6.14%
24 out of 391
-4.98%
Jun 2001 - May 2009
+7.17% +18.24%
Sep 1992 - Aug 2000
7.67%
30 out of 391
-2.16%
Nov 2000 - Oct 2009
+9.29% +18.44%
Feb 1991 - Jan 2000
3.69%
14 out of 379
-4.13%
Nov 2000 - Oct 2009
+6.96% +15.68%
Feb 1991 - Jan 2000
10.29%
39 out of 379
-0.06%
Nov 2000 - Oct 2010
+9.21% +19.74%
Nov 1990 - Oct 2000
0.27%
1 out of 367
-2.06%
Nov 2000 - Oct 2010
+7.10% +16.94%
Nov 1990 - Oct 2000
9.81%
36 out of 367
+0.40%
Sep 2000 - Aug 2011
+9.00% +16.65%
Nov 1990 - Oct 2001
0.00%
0 out of 355
-1.64%
Sep 2000 - Aug 2011
+6.86% +13.94%
Nov 1990 - Oct 2001
3.10%
11 out of 355
+2.17%
Nov 2000 - Oct 2012
+9.17% +16.13%
May 1988 - Apr 2000
0.00%
0 out of 343
+0.00%
Nov 2000 - Oct 2012
+7.06% +13.22%
May 1988 - Apr 2000
0.00%
0 out of 343
+2.41%
Sep 2000 - Aug 2013
+8.76% +16.23%
Dec 1987 - Nov 2000
0.00%
0 out of 331
+0.34%
Sep 2000 - Aug 2013
+6.80% +13.34%
Dec 1987 - Nov 2000
0.00%
0 out of 331
+3.22%
May 2000 - Apr 2014
+8.06% +14.81%
Jan 1988 - Dec 2001
0.00%
0 out of 319
+1.17%
May 2000 - Apr 2014
+6.47% +11.98%
Jan 1988 - Dec 2001
0.00%
0 out of 319
+4.17%
Sep 2000 - Aug 2015
+8.18% +12.90%
Nov 1985 - Oct 2000
0.00%
0 out of 307
+2.32%
Sep 2000 - Aug 2015
+6.26% +10.47%
Nov 1985 - Oct 2000
0.00%
0 out of 307
+4.39%
Nov 2000 - Oct 2016
+8.04% +11.71%
Dec 1987 - Nov 2003
0.00%
0 out of 295
+2.62%
Nov 2000 - Oct 2016
+6.03% +9.26%
Feb 1986 - Jan 2002
0.00%
0 out of 295
+4.26%
Sep 2000 - Aug 2017
+7.81% +10.98%
Jan 1988 - Dec 2004
0.00%
0 out of 283
+2.51%
Sep 2000 - Aug 2017
+5.77% +8.41%
Jan 1985 - Dec 2001
0.00%
0 out of 283
+4.47%
Nov 2000 - Oct 2018
+8.01% +11.46%
Dec 1987 - Nov 2005
0.00%
0 out of 271
+2.69%
Nov 2000 - Oct 2018
+5.88% +8.79%
Dec 1987 - Nov 2005
0.00%
0 out of 271
+4.91%
Nov 2000 - Oct 2019
+8.02% +10.65%
Dec 1987 - Nov 2006
0.00%
0 out of 259
+3.16%
Nov 2000 - Oct 2019
+5.83% +8.04%
Dec 1987 - Nov 2006
0.00%
0 out of 259
+4.96%
Nov 2000 - Oct 2020
+7.96% +9.99%
Dec 1987 - Nov 2007
0.00%
0 out of 247
+3.31%
Nov 2000 - Oct 2020
+5.71% +7.99%
Apr 1995 - Mar 2015
0.00%
0 out of 247
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