Pinwheel Portfolio: ETF allocation and returns

Data Source: from January 1976 to November 2023 (~48 years)
Consolidated Returns as of 30 November 2023
Live Update: Dec 01 2023
PORTFOLIO • LIVE PERFORMANCE (USD currency)
1.29%
1 Day
Dec 01 2023
1.29%
Current Month
December 2023

The Pinwheel Portfolio is a High Risk portfolio and can be implemented with 8 ETFs.

It's exposed for 65% on the Stock Market and for 10% on Commodities.

In the last 30 Years, the Pinwheel Portfolio obtained a 7.22% compound annual return, with a 10.50% standard deviation.

Table of contents

Asset Allocation and ETFs

The Pinwheel Portfolio has the following asset allocation:

65% Stocks
25% Fixed Income
10% Commodities

The Pinwheel Portfolio can be implemented with the following ETFs:

Weight (%) Ticker Currency ETF Name Investment Themes
15.00
EFA
USD iShares MSCI EAFE Equity, EAFE, Large Cap
15.00
VTI
USD Vanguard Total Stock Market Equity, U.S., Large Cap
15.00
VNQ
USD Vanguard Real Estate Real Estate, U.S.
10.00
EEM
USD iShares MSCI Emerging Markets Equity, Emerging Markets, Large Cap
10.00
IJS
USD iShares S&P Small-Cap 600 Value Equity, U.S., Small Cap, Value
15.00
IEI
USD iShares 3-7 Year Treasury Bond Bond, U.S., Intermediate-Term
10.00
BIL
USD SPDR Blmbg Barclays 1-3 Mth T-Bill Bond, U.S., Ultra Short-Term
10.00
GLD
USD SPDR Gold Trust Commodity, Gold

Most of Lazy Portfolios are made of common components (asset classes), very simple and well defined. For a more complete view, find out the most common ETFs you can use to build your portfolio.

Portfolio and ETF Returns as of Nov 30, 2023

The Pinwheel Portfolio guaranteed the following returns.

Returns are calculated in USD, assuming: December 2023 return is calculated on the hypothesis of a newly built portfolio, with the starting asset allocation.
PINWHEEL PORTFOLIO
Consolidated returns as of 30 November 2023
Live Update: Dec 01 2023
Swipe left to see all data
  Chg (%) Return (%) Return (%) as of Nov 30, 2023
  1 Day Time ET(*) Dec 2023 1M 6M 1Y 5Y 10Y 30Y MAX
(~48Y)
Pinwheel Portfolio 1.29 1.29 6.75 4.32 5.01 5.65 5.16 7.22 9.86
US Inflation Adjusted return 6.75 3.12 1.61 1.52 2.28 4.58 6.00
Components
EFA
USD iShares MSCI EAFE 1.05 Dec 01 2023 1.05 8.22 4.37 10.33 5.92 3.86 5.03 8.32
VTI
USD Vanguard Total Stock Market 0.84 Dec 01 2023 0.84 9.42 10.04 12.72 11.71 11.16 9.90 11.50
VNQ
USD Vanguard Real Estate 2.46 Dec 01 2023 2.46 12.08 4.30 -2.99 3.66 6.41 8.34 11.72
EEM
USD iShares MSCI Emerging Markets 0.43 Dec 01 2023 0.43 7.79 4.40 2.42 1.46 1.42 4.65 7.38
IJS
USD iShares S&P Small-Cap 600 Value 3.28 Dec 01 2023 3.28 9.07 4.59 -5.38 5.50 6.78 10.07 14.41
IEI
USD iShares 3-7 Year Treasury Bond 0.60 Dec 01 2023 0.60 2.70 -0.34 1.33 0.67 0.89 4.10 6.34
BIL
USD SPDR Blmbg Barclays 1-3 Mth T-Bill 0.02 Dec 01 2023 0.02 0.47 2.67 4.88 1.67 1.05 2.24 4.21
GLD
USD SPDR Gold Trust 1.73 Dec 01 2023 1.73 2.53 3.53 14.53 10.31 4.57 5.55 5.56
Returns over 1 year are annualized | Available data source: since Jan 1976
(*) Eastern Time (ET - America/New York)
US Inflation is updated to Oct 2023. Waiting for updates, inflation of Nov 2023 is set to 0%. Current inflation (annualized) is 1Y: 3.35% , 5Y: 4.07% , 10Y: 2.82% , 30Y: 2.52%

In 2022, the Pinwheel Portfolio granted a 1.60% dividend yield. If you are interested in getting periodic income, please refer to the Pinwheel Portfolio: Dividend Yield page.

Capital Growth as of Nov 30, 2023

An investment of 1$, since December 1993, now would be worth 8.09$, with a total return of 709.14% (7.22% annualized).

The Inflation Adjusted Capital now would be 3.83$, with a net total return of 283.44% (4.58% annualized).
An investment of 1$, since January 1976, now would be worth 90.49$, with a total return of 8949.39% (9.86% annualized).

The Inflation Adjusted Capital now would be 16.32$, with a net total return of 1532.40% (6.00% annualized).

Portfolio Metrics as of Nov 30, 2023

Metrics of Pinwheel Portfolio, updated as of 30 November 2023.

Metrics are calculated based on monthly returns, assuming:
PINWHEEL PORTFOLIO
Advanced Metrics
Data Source: 1 January 1976 - 30 November 2023 (~48 years)
Swipe left to see all data
Metrics as of Nov 30, 2023
1M 3M 6M 1Y 3Y 5Y 10Y 20Y 30Y MAX
(~48Y)
Investment Return (%) 6.75 0.85 4.32 5.01 3.21 5.65 5.16 6.99 7.22 9.86
Infl. Adjusted Return (%) details 6.75 0.64 3.12 1.61 -2.39 1.52 2.28 4.29 4.58 6.00
US Inflation (%) 0.00 0.21 1.17 3.35 5.74 4.07 2.82 2.59 2.52 3.64
Waiting for updates, inflation of Nov 2023 is temporarily set to 0%. Returns / Inflation rates over 1 year are annualized.
DRAWDOWN
Inflation Adjusted:
Inflation Adjusted:
1Y 3Y 5Y 10Y 20Y 30Y MAX
Deepest Drawdown Depth (%) -8.07 -19.49 -19.49 -19.49 -36.89 -36.89 -36.89
Start to Recovery (# months) details 4* 23* 23* 23* 36 36 36
Start (yyyy mm) 2023 08 2022 01 2022 01 2022 01 2007 11 2007 11 2007 11
Start to Bottom (# months) 3 9 9 9 16 16 16
Bottom (yyyy mm) 2023 10 2022 09 2022 09 2022 09 2009 02 2009 02 2009 02
Bottom to End (# months) 1 14 14 14 20 20 20
End (yyyy mm) - - - - 2010 10 2010 10 2010 10
Longest Drawdown Depth (%) -3.55
same as
deepest

same as
deepest

same as
deepest

same as
deepest

same as
deepest

same as
deepest
Start to Recovery (# months) details 6
Start (yyyy mm) 2023 02 2022 01 2022 01 2022 01 2007 11 2007 11 2007 11
Start to Bottom (# months) 4 9 9 9 16 16 16
Bottom (yyyy mm) 2023 05 2022 09 2022 09 2022 09 2009 02 2009 02 2009 02
Bottom to End (# months) 2 14 14 14 20 20 20
End (yyyy mm) 2023 07 - - - 2010 10 2010 10 2010 10
Longest negative period (# months) details 11 34 34 34 51 51 51
Period Start (yyyy mm) 2022 12 2021 01 2021 01 2021 01 2004 12 2004 12 2004 12
Period End (yyyy mm) 2023 10 2023 10 2023 10 2023 10 2009 02 2009 02 2009 02
Annualized Return (%) -1.78 -0.37 -0.37 -0.37 -0.76 -0.76 -0.76
Drawdowns / Negative periods marked with * are in progress
Deepest Drawdown Depth (%) -8.66 -24.50 -24.50 -24.50 -37.86 -37.86 -37.86
Start to Recovery (# months) details 4* 27* 27* 27* 38 38 38
Start (yyyy mm) 2023 08 2021 09 2021 09 2021 09 2007 11 2007 11 2007 11
Start to Bottom (# months) 3 13 13 13 16 16 16
Bottom (yyyy mm) 2023 10 2022 09 2022 09 2022 09 2009 02 2009 02 2009 02
Bottom to End (# months) 1 14 14 14 22 22 22
End (yyyy mm) - - - - 2010 12 2010 12 2010 12
Longest Drawdown Depth (%) -5.13
same as
deepest

same as
deepest

same as
deepest

same as
deepest

same as
deepest

same as
deepest
Start to Recovery (# months) details 6
Start (yyyy mm) 2023 02 2021 09 2021 09 2021 09 2007 11 2007 11 2007 11
Start to Bottom (# months) 4 13 13 13 16 16 16
Bottom (yyyy mm) 2023 05 2022 09 2022 09 2022 09 2009 02 2009 02 2009 02
Bottom to End (# months) 2 14 14 14 22 22 22
End (yyyy mm) 2023 07 - - - 2010 12 2010 12 2010 12
Longest negative period (# months) details 11 36* 57 73 73 73 73
Period Start (yyyy mm) 2022 12 2020 12 2019 02 2017 10 2017 10 2017 10 2017 10
Period End (yyyy mm) 2023 10 2023 11 2023 10 2023 10 2023 10 2023 10 2023 10
Annualized Return (%) -5.24 -2.39 -0.26 -0.04 -0.04 -0.04 -0.04
Drawdowns / Negative periods marked with * are in progress
RISK INDICATORS
1Y 3Y 5Y 10Y 20Y 30Y MAX
Standard Deviation (%) 12.70 12.06 12.57 10.03 11.23 10.50 10.42
Sharpe Ratio 0.01 0.11 0.32 0.41 0.51 0.47 0.56
Sortino Ratio 0.02 0.15 0.43 0.55 0.67 0.62 0.74
Ulcer Index 3.47 8.36 7.07 5.39 7.56 6.62 5.68
Ratio: Return / Standard Deviation 0.39 0.27 0.45 0.51 0.62 0.69 0.95
Ratio: Return / Deepest Drawdown 0.62 0.16 0.29 0.26 0.19 0.20 0.27
% Positive Months details 50% 55% 61% 63% 63% 64% 66%
Positive Months 6 20 37 76 153 233 383
Negative Months 6 16 23 44 87 127 192
LONG TERM RETURNS
Inflation Adjusted:
Inflation Adjusted:
1Y 3Y 5Y 10Y 20Y 30Y MAX
Best 10 Years Return (%) - Annualized 5.16 10.35 11.01 17.19
Worst 10 Years Return (%) - Annualized 4.46 4.46 4.46
Best 10 Years Return (%) - Annualized 2.28 8.43 8.44 11.72
Worst 10 Years Return (%) - Annualized 1.62 1.62 1.62
ROLLING PERIOD RETURNS
Inflation Adjusted:
Inflation Adjusted:
1Y 3Y 5Y 10Y 20Y 30Y MAX
Over the latest 30Y
Best Rolling Return (%) - Annualized 44.78 22.39 17.92 11.01 8.66 7.22
Worst Rolling Return (%) - Annualized -32.48 -6.91 1.11 4.46 6.36
% Positive Periods 79% 95% 100% 100% 100% 100%
Best Rolling Return (%) - Annualized 41.74 19.12 14.62 8.44 6.29 4.58
Worst Rolling Return (%) - Annualized -32.64 -8.93 -1.50 1.62 4.08
% Positive Periods 71% 86% 96% 100% 100% 100%
Over all the available data source (Jan 1976 - Nov 2023)
Best Rolling Return (%) - Annualized 45.76 25.84 23.34 17.19 13.74 12.39
Worst Rolling Return (%) - Annualized -32.48 -6.91 1.11 4.46 6.36 6.86
% Positive Periods 82% 97% 100% 100% 100% 100%
Best Rolling Return (%) - Annualized 42.10 22.16 19.58 11.72 8.49 7.90
Worst Rolling Return (%) - Annualized -32.64 -8.93 -1.50 1.62 4.08 4.23
% Positive Periods 75% 90% 98% 100% 100% 100%
WITHDRAWAL RATES (WR)
1Y 3Y 5Y 10Y 20Y 30Y MAX
Safe WR (%) 33.54 22.11 11.70 8.34 6.57 8.22
Perpetual WR (%) 0.00 1.50 2.23 4.12 4.38 5.66
Terms and Definitions
  • Annualized Portfolio Return: it's the annualized geometric mean return of the portfolio
  • Deepest/Longest Drawdown: a drawdown refers to the decline in value from a relative peak value to a relative trough. The deepest (or maximum) drawdown is the maximum observed loss from a peak to a trough of a portfolio before a new peak is attained. The longest drawdown is the period observed from a peak to the subsequent peak with the greatest duration.
  • Longest negative period: it's the maximum period for which an overall negative return has been observed
  • Standard Deviation: it's a measure of the dispersion of returns around the mean
  • Sharpe Ratio: it's a measure of risk-adjusted performance of the portfolio. It's calculated by dividing the excess return of the portfolio over the risk-free rate by the portfolio standard deviation. The risk-free rate here considered is the 1-3 Mth T-Bill return
  • Sortino Ratio: another measure of risk-adjusted performance of the portfolio. It's a modification of the Sharpe Ratio (same formula but the denominator is the portfolio downside standard deviation)
  • Ulcer Index: it's a measure of downside risk that quantifies the depth and duration of drawdowns in an investment portfolio
  • Best/Worst 10Y returns: the best and the worst 10-year return over a time frame
  • Rolling Returns: N-year returns over a time frame, calculated over all the available data source (best, worst, % of positive returns). Each rolling period, longer than the longest negative period, yielded a non-negative minimum return.
  • Safe Withdrawal Rate (SWR): it's the percentage of the original portfolio balance that can be withdrawn at the end of each year with inflation adjustment, without the portfolio running out of money (dollar amount withdrawal).
  • Perpetual Withdrawal Rate (PWR): it's the percentage of portfolio balance that can be withdrawn at the end of each year, while retaining the inflation adjusted portfolio balance (percentage withdrawal).
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Portfolio Components Correlation

Correlation measures to what degree the returns of the two assets move in relation to each other.

Correlation coefficient is a numerical value between -1 and +1. If one variable goes up by a certain amount, the correlation coefficient indicates which way the other variable moves and by how much.
Asset correlations are calculated based on monthly returns.
COMPONENTS MONTHLY CORRELATIONS
Monthly correlations as of 30 November 2023
Swipe left to see all data
Asset
EFA
VTI
VNQ
EEM
IJS
IEI
BIL
GLD
EFA
-
0.89
0.93
0.92
0.83
0.73
-0.15
0.43
VTI
0.89
-
0.93
0.87
0.87
0.62
0.08
0.27
VNQ
0.93
0.93
-
0.87
0.91
0.63
0.02
0.33
EEM
0.92
0.87
0.87
-
0.81
0.70
-0.13
0.48
IJS
0.83
0.87
0.91
0.81
-
0.33
-0.11
0.06
IEI
0.73
0.62
0.63
0.70
0.33
-
0.00
0.72
BIL
-0.15
0.08
0.02
-0.13
-0.11
0.00
-
-0.12
GLD
0.43
0.27
0.33
0.48
0.06
0.72
-0.12
-
Asset
EFA
VTI
VNQ
EEM
IJS
IEI
BIL
GLD
EFA
-
0.90
0.83
0.85
0.85
0.24
-0.04
0.27
VTI
0.90
-
0.87
0.75
0.88
0.14
-0.09
0.20
VNQ
0.83
0.87
-
0.68
0.78
0.22
-0.14
0.26
EEM
0.85
0.75
0.68
-
0.75
0.23
-0.04
0.35
IJS
0.85
0.88
0.78
0.75
-
-0.07
-0.20
0.04
IEI
0.24
0.14
0.22
0.23
-0.07
-
0.15
0.46
BIL
-0.04
-0.09
-0.14
-0.04
-0.20
0.15
-
0.09
GLD
0.27
0.20
0.26
0.35
0.04
0.46
0.09
-
Asset
EFA
VTI
VNQ
EEM
IJS
IEI
BIL
GLD
EFA
-
0.87
0.67
0.82
0.76
0.12
-0.01
0.16
VTI
0.87
-
0.75
0.71
0.86
0.04
-0.06
0.09
VNQ
0.67
0.75
-
0.54
0.68
0.28
-0.12
0.20
EEM
0.82
0.71
0.54
-
0.64
0.14
-0.03
0.29
IJS
0.76
0.86
0.68
0.64
-
-0.13
-0.16
-0.04
IEI
0.12
0.04
0.28
0.14
-0.13
-
0.10
0.46
BIL
-0.01
-0.06
-0.12
-0.03
-0.16
0.10
-
0.10
GLD
0.16
0.09
0.20
0.29
-0.04
0.46
0.10
-
Asset
EFA
VTI
VNQ
EEM
IJS
IEI
BIL
GLD
EFA
-
0.84
0.60
0.81
0.74
-0.11
-0.04
0.18
VTI
0.84
-
0.63
0.75
0.86
-0.12
-0.02
0.06
VNQ
0.60
0.63
-
0.52
0.69
0.03
-0.02
0.14
EEM
0.81
0.75
0.52
-
0.67
-0.10
-0.04
0.27
IJS
0.74
0.86
0.69
0.67
-
-0.19
-0.04
0.02
IEI
-0.11
-0.12
0.03
-0.10
-0.19
-
0.17
0.23
BIL
-0.04
-0.02
-0.02
-0.04
-0.04
0.17
-
0.00
GLD
0.18
0.06
0.14
0.27
0.02
0.23
0.00
-
Asset
EFA
VTI
VNQ
EEM
IJS
IEI
BIL
GLD
EFA
-
0.76
0.54
0.69
0.67
0.07
0.01
0.15
VTI
0.76
-
0.64
0.72
0.87
0.08
-0.01
0.05
VNQ
0.54
0.64
-
0.50
0.71
0.10
0.01
0.10
EEM
0.69
0.72
0.50
-
0.64
0.06
-0.03
0.12
IJS
0.67
0.87
0.71
0.64
-
0.03
0.01
0.02
IEI
0.07
0.08
0.10
0.06
0.03
-
0.20
0.09
BIL
0.01
-0.01
0.01
-0.03
0.01
0.20
-
-0.01
GLD
0.15
0.05
0.10
0.12
0.02
0.09
-0.01
-

If you want to learn more about historical correlations, you can find out here how the main asset class are correlated to each other.

Drawdowns

A drawdown refers to the decline in value from a relative peak value to a relative trough. A maximum drawdown is the maximum observed loss from a peak to a trough of a portfolio before a new peak is attained.

PINWHEEL PORTFOLIO
Drawdown periods
Drawdown periods - Inflation Adjusted
Data Source: 1 December 1993 - 30 November 2023 (30 Years)
Data Source: 1 January 1976 - 30 November 2023 (~48 years)
Inflation Adjusted:
Swipe left to see all data
Drawdown period
Recovery period
Total
Drawdown Start Bottom #Months End #Months #Months Ulcer Index
-36.89% Nov 2007 Feb 2009 16 Oct 2010 20 36 16.21
-19.49% Jan 2022 Sep 2022 9 in progress 14 23 10.36
-14.99% Jan 2020 Mar 2020 3 Aug 2020 5 8 6.84
-14.05% May 1998 Aug 1998 4 Apr 1999 8 12 6.04
-12.72% May 2011 Sep 2011 5 Mar 2012 6 11 5.08
-11.06% Jun 2002 Sep 2002 4 Jun 2003 9 13 7.41
-8.88% Feb 2001 Sep 2001 8 Mar 2002 6 14 4.60
-8.24% Feb 2018 Dec 2018 11 Apr 2019 4 15 3.28
-7.70% Mar 2015 Jan 2016 11 Jun 2016 5 16 3.99
-6.85% Feb 1994 Jan 1995 12 May 1995 4 16 4.36
-5.90% Apr 2012 May 2012 2 Sep 2012 4 6 2.52
-5.84% Sep 2000 Nov 2000 3 Jan 2001 2 5 2.88
-5.84% Apr 2004 Apr 2004 1 Sep 2004 5 6 3.31
-4.25% Oct 1997 Oct 1997 1 Feb 1998 4 5 2.87
-4.25% May 2013 Jun 2013 2 Sep 2013 3 5 2.33
Swipe left to see all data
Drawdown period
Recovery period
Total
Drawdown Start Bottom #Months End #Months #Months Ulcer Index
-37.86% Nov 2007 Feb 2009 16 Dec 2010 22 38 17.52
-24.50% Sep 2021 Sep 2022 13 in progress 14 27 15.00
-15.36% Jan 2020 Mar 2020 3 Aug 2020 5 8 6.98
-14.53% May 1998 Aug 1998 4 Apr 1999 8 12 6.61
-13.48% May 2011 Sep 2011 5 Nov 2012 14 19 4.70
-13.01% Sep 2000 Mar 2003 31 Jul 2003 4 35 6.85
-9.47% Feb 2018 Dec 2018 11 Sep 2019 9 20 4.01
-9.39% Feb 1994 Jan 1995 12 Sep 1995 8 20 5.60
-8.63% Mar 2015 Sep 2015 7 Jul 2016 10 17 4.81
-6.14% Apr 2004 Apr 2004 1 Oct 2004 6 7 3.73
-4.64% May 2013 Jun 2013 2 Oct 2013 4 6 2.45
-4.49% Oct 1997 Oct 1997 1 Feb 1998 4 5 3.01
-4.26% Jan 2005 Apr 2005 4 Jul 2005 3 7 2.40
-4.03% Sep 2014 Sep 2014 1 Nov 2014 2 3 2.10
-3.83% Jun 2007 Jul 2007 2 Sep 2007 2 4 2.11
Swipe left to see all data
Drawdown period
Recovery period
Total
Drawdown Start Bottom #Months End #Months #Months Ulcer Index
-36.89% Nov 2007 Feb 2009 16 Oct 2010 20 36 16.21
-19.49% Jan 2022 Sep 2022 9 in progress 14 23 10.36
-14.99% Jan 2020 Mar 2020 3 Aug 2020 5 8 6.84
-14.91% Sep 1987 Nov 1987 3 Dec 1988 13 16 7.02
-14.05% May 1998 Aug 1998 4 Apr 1999 8 12 6.04
-12.72% May 2011 Sep 2011 5 Mar 2012 6 11 5.08
-12.51% Jan 1990 Sep 1990 9 Feb 1991 5 14 6.33
-12.10% Dec 1980 Jul 1982 20 Oct 1982 3 23 6.00
-11.81% Feb 1980 Mar 1980 2 Jun 1980 3 5 6.04
-11.06% Jun 2002 Sep 2002 4 Jun 2003 9 13 7.41
-8.88% Feb 2001 Sep 2001 8 Mar 2002 6 14 4.60
-8.24% Feb 2018 Dec 2018 11 Apr 2019 4 15 3.28
-7.70% Mar 2015 Jan 2016 11 Jun 2016 5 16 3.99
-6.94% Oct 1979 Oct 1979 1 Dec 1979 2 3 3.63
-6.85% Feb 1994 Jan 1995 12 May 1995 4 16 4.36
Swipe left to see all data
Drawdown period
Recovery period
Total
Drawdown Start Bottom #Months End #Months #Months Ulcer Index
-37.86% Nov 2007 Feb 2009 16 Dec 2010 22 38 17.52
-24.50% Sep 2021 Sep 2022 13 in progress 14 27 15.00
-22.92% Dec 1980 Jul 1982 20 Mar 1983 8 28 12.11
-16.86% Jan 1990 Sep 1990 9 Aug 1991 11 20 8.29
-15.65% Sep 1987 Nov 1987 3 May 1989 18 21 7.63
-15.36% Jan 2020 Mar 2020 3 Aug 2020 5 8 6.98
-14.53% May 1998 Aug 1998 4 Apr 1999 8 12 6.61
-14.34% Feb 1980 Mar 1980 2 Nov 1980 8 10 6.38
-13.48% May 2011 Sep 2011 5 Nov 2012 14 19 4.70
-13.01% Sep 2000 Mar 2003 31 Jul 2003 4 35 6.85
-9.47% Feb 2018 Dec 2018 11 Sep 2019 9 20 4.01
-9.39% Feb 1994 Jan 1995 12 Sep 1995 8 20 5.60
-8.63% Mar 2015 Sep 2015 7 Jul 2016 10 17 4.81
-7.68% Oct 1979 Oct 1979 1 Dec 1979 2 3 4.29
-6.89% Sep 1978 Nov 1978 3 Jun 1979 7 10 3.26

Rolling Returns

( more details)

A rolling return is a measure of investment performance that calculates the return of an investment over a set period of time, with the starting date rolling forward. This approach can provide a more accurate representation of the investment's historical performance and helps investors to evaluate the investment's consistency over time.

PINWHEEL PORTFOLIO
Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Returns - Inflation Adjusted
Data Source: 1 December 1993 - 30 November 2023 (30 Years)
Data Source: 1 January 1976 - 30 November 2023 (~48 years)
Inflation Adjusted:
Swipe left to see all data
Rolling
Period
Worst Period
15th Percentile
50th Percentile
85th Percentile
Best Period
Latest Negative
Periods
Ann.
Return
From
To
Growth
of 1$
Ann.
Return
Growth
of 1$
Ann.
Return
Growth
of 1$
Ann.
Return
Growth
of 1$
Ann.
Return
From
To
Growth
of 1$
1Y -32.48 03/2008
02/2009
0.67$ -2.08 0.97$ 7.92 1.07$ 17.13 1.17$ 44.78 03/2009
02/2010
1.44$ 5.01 20.34%
2Y -16.44 03/2007
02/2009
0.69$ 1.44 1.02$ 7.17 1.14$ 14.41 1.30$ 31.96 03/2009
02/2011
1.74$ -1.73 11.87%
3Y -6.91 03/2006
02/2009
0.80$ 3.21 1.09$ 7.18 1.23$ 12.66 1.42$ 22.39 04/2003
03/2006
1.83$ 3.21 4.31%
5Y 1.11 03/2004
02/2009
1.05$ 4.60 1.25$ 6.85 1.39$ 10.70 1.66$ 17.92 11/2002
10/2007
2.27$ 5.65 0.00%
7Y 3.52 04/2013
03/2020
1.27$ 5.72 1.47$ 7.11 1.61$ 10.01 1.95$ 11.86 11/2000
10/2007
2.19$ 5.87 0.00%
10Y 4.46 11/2013
10/2023
1.54$ 5.70 1.74$ 7.81 2.12$ 9.42 2.45$ 11.01 04/2003
03/2013
2.84$ 5.16 0.00%
15Y 4.46 11/2007
10/2022
1.92$ 6.48 2.56$ 7.76 3.06$ 8.46 3.38$ 9.34 02/2003
01/2018
3.81$ 7.76 0.00%
20Y 6.36 04/2000
03/2020
3.43$ 7.31 4.09$ 7.64 4.35$ 8.29 4.91$ 8.66 03/1995
02/2015
5.26$ 6.99 0.00%
30Y 7.22 12/1993
11/2023
8.09$ 7.22 8.09$ 7.22 8.09$ 7.22 8.09$ 7.22 12/1993
11/2023
8.09$ 7.22 0.00%
Annualized rolling and percentiles/median returns over full calendar month periods
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Rolling
Period
Worst Period
15th Percentile
50th Percentile
85th Percentile
Best Period
Latest Negative
Periods
Ann.
Return
From
To
Growth
of 1$
Ann.
Return
Growth
of 1$
Ann.
Return
Growth
of 1$
Ann.
Return
Growth
of 1$
Ann.
Return
From
To
Growth
of 1$
1Y -32.64 03/2008
02/2009
0.67$ -4.14 0.95$ 5.68 1.05$ 13.95 1.13$ 41.74 03/2009
02/2010
1.41$ 1.61 28.08%
2Y -18.17 03/2007
02/2009
0.66$ -0.91 0.98$ 5.05 1.10$ 11.41 1.24$ 29.21 03/2009
02/2011
1.66$ -6.59 17.21%
3Y -8.93 03/2006
02/2009
0.75$ 0.11 1.00$ 4.99 1.15$ 9.56 1.31$ 19.12 04/2003
03/2006
1.69$ -2.39 13.85%
5Y -1.50 03/2004
02/2009
0.92$ 2.09 1.10$ 4.75 1.26$ 8.11 1.47$ 14.62 11/2002
10/2007
1.97$ 1.52 3.32%
7Y 1.18 10/2016
09/2023
1.08$ 3.45 1.26$ 4.86 1.39$ 7.19 1.62$ 9.49 04/2009
03/2016
1.88$ 2.27 0.00%
10Y 1.62 11/2013
10/2023
1.17$ 3.57 1.42$ 5.56 1.71$ 6.83 1.93$ 8.44 04/2003
03/2013
2.24$ 2.28 0.00%
15Y 2.01 11/2007
10/2022
1.34$ 4.11 1.82$ 5.31 2.17$ 6.00 2.39$ 7.10 02/2003
01/2018
2.79$ 5.13 0.00%
20Y 4.08 11/2003
10/2023
2.22$ 4.96 2.63$ 5.30 2.81$ 5.87 3.12$ 6.29 03/1995
02/2015
3.38$ 4.29 0.00%
30Y 4.58 12/1993
11/2023
3.83$ 4.58 3.83$ 4.58 3.83$ 4.58 3.83$ 4.58 12/1993
11/2023
3.83$ 4.58 0.00%
Annualized rolling and percentiles/median returns over full calendar month periods
Swipe left to see all data
Rolling
Period
Worst Period
15th Percentile
50th Percentile
85th Percentile
Best Period
Latest Negative
Periods
Ann.
Return
From
To
Growth
of 1$
Ann.
Return
Growth
of 1$
Ann.
Return
Growth
of 1$
Ann.
Return
Growth
of 1$
Ann.
Return
From
To
Growth
of 1$
1Y -32.48 03/2008
02/2009
0.67$ -0.61 0.99$ 10.46 1.10$ 20.84 1.20$ 45.76 07/1982
06/1983
1.45$ 5.01 17.02%
2Y -16.44 03/2007
02/2009
0.69$ 3.05 1.06$ 9.68 1.20$ 17.73 1.38$ 31.96 03/2009
02/2011
1.74$ -1.73 7.61%
3Y -6.91 03/2006
02/2009
0.80$ 4.65 1.14$ 9.31 1.30$ 16.74 1.59$ 25.84 08/1984
07/1987
1.99$ 3.21 2.59%
5Y 1.11 03/2004
02/2009
1.05$ 5.38 1.29$ 9.39 1.56$ 14.67 1.98$ 23.34 08/1982
07/1987
2.85$ 5.65 0.00%
7Y 3.52 04/2013
03/2020
1.27$ 6.07 1.51$ 9.77 1.91$ 14.32 2.55$ 18.57 08/1982
07/1989
3.29$ 5.87 0.00%
10Y 4.46 11/2013
10/2023
1.54$ 6.45 1.86$ 9.35 2.44$ 14.04 3.72$ 17.19 09/1977
08/1987
4.88$ 5.16 0.00%
15Y 4.46 11/2007
10/2022
1.92$ 7.14 2.81$ 8.81 3.55$ 12.90 6.17$ 14.67 11/1978
10/1993
7.79$ 7.76 0.00%
20Y 6.36 04/2000
03/2020
3.43$ 7.55 4.28$ 9.00 5.60$ 11.87 9.42$ 13.74 01/1976
12/1995
13.12$ 6.99 0.00%
30Y 6.86 11/1993
10/2023
7.32$ 8.14 10.46$ 9.85 16.73$ 11.25 24.45$ 12.39 11/1977
10/2007
33.23$ 7.22 0.00%
Annualized rolling and percentiles/median returns over full calendar month periods
Swipe left to see all data
Rolling
Period
Worst Period
15th Percentile
50th Percentile
85th Percentile
Best Period
Latest Negative
Periods
Ann.
Return
From
To
Growth
of 1$
Ann.
Return
Growth
of 1$
Ann.
Return
Growth
of 1$
Ann.
Return
Growth
of 1$
Ann.
Return
From
To
Growth
of 1$
1Y -32.64 03/2008
02/2009
0.67$ -3.75 0.96$ 6.46 1.06$ 16.27 1.16$ 42.10 07/1982
06/1983
1.42$ 1.61 24.47%
2Y -18.17 03/2007
02/2009
0.66$ 0.77 1.01$ 6.13 1.12$ 12.62 1.26$ 29.21 03/2009
02/2011
1.66$ -6.59 13.59%
3Y -8.93 03/2006
02/2009
0.75$ 1.97 1.06$ 6.02 1.19$ 11.57 1.38$ 22.16 08/1984
07/1987
1.82$ -2.39 10.00%
5Y -1.50 03/2004
02/2009
0.92$ 3.03 1.16$ 5.67 1.31$ 10.15 1.62$ 19.58 08/1982
07/1987
2.44$ 1.52 1.94%
7Y 1.18 10/2016
09/2023
1.08$ 4.12 1.32$ 6.32 1.53$ 8.99 1.82$ 14.51 08/1982
07/1989
2.58$ 2.27 0.00%
10Y 1.62 11/2013
10/2023
1.17$ 4.29 1.52$ 6.48 1.87$ 8.68 2.29$ 11.72 08/1982
07/1992
3.02$ 2.28 0.00%
15Y 2.01 11/2007
10/2022
1.34$ 4.89 2.04$ 6.06 2.41$ 8.25 3.28$ 10.87 08/1982
07/1997
4.69$ 5.13 0.00%
20Y 4.08 11/2003
10/2023
2.22$ 5.17 2.73$ 6.27 3.37$ 7.74 4.43$ 8.49 07/1982
06/2002
5.10$ 4.29 0.00%
30Y 4.23 11/1993
10/2023
3.46$ 5.59 5.10$ 6.43 6.47$ 7.43 8.59$ 7.90 11/1977
10/2007
9.79$ 4.58 0.00%
Annualized rolling and percentiles/median returns over full calendar month periods

If you need a deeper detail about rolling returns, please refer to the Pinwheel Portfolio: Rolling Returns page.

Seasonality

In which months is it better to invest in Pinwheel Portfolio?

Both the Average Return and the Gain Frequency (Win %) are useful to get an idea of what happened in the past.
For further information about the seasonality, check the Asset Class Seasonality page.
Swipe left to see all data
Monthly Average Return (%) and Gain Frequency
Return (%) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Average
Gain Frequency
1.96
60%
-1.21
40%
-1.05
80%
1.42
80%
-0.18
40%
1.03
60%
2.23
100%
-0.46
60%
-3.05
20%
1.19
60%
3.71
80%
0.72
60%
Best 7.0
2023
1.8
2021
2.1
2021
6.4
2020
2.6
2020
4.5
2019
4.0
2020
2.4
2020
1.3
2019
3.4
2022
6.9
2020
4.1
2020
Worst -3.5
2022
-4.5
2020
-10.3
2020
-4.7
2022
-3.2
2019
-5.2
2022
0.1
2019
-3.5
2022
-7.3
2022
-1.6
2023
-2.0
2021
-4.3
2018
Monthly Seasonality over the period Feb 1976 - Nov 2023
Swipe left to see all data
Monthly Average Return (%) and Gain Frequency
Return (%) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Average
Gain Frequency
1.13
60%
-0.18
60%
0.10
80%
1.01
90%
0.13
50%
0.81
60%
1.60
80%
-0.40
60%
-1.99
30%
0.69
60%
2.13
70%
0.51
60%
Best 7.0
2023
3.8
2014
5.6
2016
6.4
2020
2.6
2020
4.5
2019
4.0
2020
2.4
2020
1.3
2019
4.4
2015
6.9
2020
4.1
2020
Worst -3.5
2022
-4.5
2020
-10.3
2020
-4.7
2022
-3.2
2019
-5.2
2022
-1.5
2014
-4.0
2015
-7.3
2022
-4.5
2018
-2.0
2021
-4.3
2018
Monthly Seasonality over the period Feb 1976 - Nov 2023
Swipe left to see all data
Monthly Average Return (%) and Gain Frequency
Return (%) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Average
Gain Frequency
1.23
63%
0.29
60%
0.73
75%
1.55
85%
0.50
60%
0.65
63%
1.07
63%
0.45
65%
-0.01
60%
0.22
58%
1.51
71%
1.81
77%
Best 7.9
1976
5.4
1991
5.7
1986
9.6
2009
5.9
2009
5.1
1980
6.9
2009
8.6
1982
6.2
2010
8.6
1982
6.9
2020
8.9
1991
Worst -7.8
2009
-7.6
2009
-10.4
1980
-5.8
2004
-5.7
2012
-5.3
2008
-5.8
2002
-9.8
1998
-8.2
2011
-15.8
2008
-4.5
2008
-4.3
2018
Monthly Seasonality over the period Feb 1976 - Nov 2023

Monthly Returns

This section provides a visual/tabular representation of the performance variability in the Pinwheel Portfolio over time. It illustrates the distribution of monthly returns, showcasing the range and frequency of positive and negative returns.

PINWHEEL PORTFOLIO
Monthly Returns Distribution
Data Source: 1 December 1993 - 30 November 2023 (30 Years)
Data Source: 1 January 1976 - 30 November 2023 (~48 years)
233 Positive Months (65%) - 127 Negative Months (35%)
383 Positive Months (67%) - 192 Negative Months (33%)
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(Scroll down to see all data)
Investment Returns, up to December 2007, are simulated.
They have been derived using the historical series of equivalent ETFs / Assets, instead of the actual ETFs of the portfolio.

In particular, the series derived from equivalent datasets are:
  • EFA - iShares MSCI EAFE, up to December 2001
  • VTI - Vanguard Total Stock Market, up to December 2001
  • VNQ - Vanguard Real Estate, up to December 2004
  • EEM - iShares MSCI Emerging Markets, up to December 2003
  • IJS - iShares S&P Small-Cap 600 Value, up to December 2000
  • IEI - iShares 3-7 Year Treasury Bond, up to December 2007
  • BIL - SPDR Blmbg Barclays 1-3 Mth T-Bill, up to December 2007
  • GLD - SPDR Gold Trust, up to December 2004

Portfolio efficiency

The following portfolios granted a higher return over 30 Years and a less severe drawdown at the same time.

Swipe left to see all data
30 Years Stats (%)
% Allocation
Portfolio Author Return Dev.Std Drawdown Stocks Bonds Comm
Stocks/Bonds 60/40 Momentum +9.34 9.56 -32.52 60 40 0
Aim Bold Strategy Aim Ways +8.24 9.93 -30.09 45 40 15
Weird Portfolio Value Stock Geek +8.02 10.75 -32.97 60 20 20
Stocks/Bonds 60/40 +7.99 9.61 -30.55 60 40 0
Couch Potato Scott Burns +7.83 8.76 -27.04 50 50 0
Stocks/Bonds 40/60 Momentum +7.75 6.99 -21.11 40 60 0
Golden Butterfly Tyler +7.46 7.68 -17.79 40 40 20
Coffeehouse Bill Schultheis +7.41 9.68 -33.93 60 40 0
Tilt Toward Value Time Inc +7.30 9.42 -34.63 60 40 0
Marc Faber Portfolio Marc Faber +7.22 9.65 -28.82 50 25 25
Dimensional 2030 Retirement Income DFA +7.22 9.25 -31.78 55.9 44.1 0
Pinwheel +7.22 10.50 -36.89 65 25 10

Here's a list containing the Best Classic Portfolios, with the highest returns over 30 Years and High Risk categorization.

Swipe left to see all data
30 Years Stats (%)
% Allocation
Portfolio Author Return Dev.Std Drawdown Stocks Bonds Comm
Stocks/Bonds 60/40 Momentum +9.34 9.56 -32.52 60 40 0
Simple Path to Wealth JL Collins +8.78 11.75 -38.53 75 25 0
Aim Bold Strategy Aim Ways +8.24 9.93 -30.09 45 40 15
Late Sixties and Beyond Burton Malkiel +8.13 11.69 -41.80 71 29 0
Talmud Portfolio Roger Gibson +8.01 10.81 -40.17 66.7 33.3 0
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