Tyler Pinwheel To EUR Portfolio: Rolling Returns

Simulation Settings
Period: January 1976 - May 2025 (~49 years)
Rebalancing: at every Jan 1st
Currency: EUR
Inflation: Eurozone
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When holding the Tyler Pinwheel To EUR Portfolio, how long should you stay invested to have high probability to achieve a positive return?

Over the selected period (~49 years), the longest duration with a negative return was 107 months (from May 2000 to March 2009).

This indicates that, within the same timeframe, any rolling period of 108 months or more has consistently resulted in a positive return.

Understanding this metric is crucial as it highlights the importance of a safe investment horizon. Knowing the minimum duration required to likely see positive returns helps investors set realistic expectations and reinforces the strategy of staying invested through market cycles. This approach can mitigate the emotional reactions to short-term market fluctuations and enhance the likelihood of achieving financial goals.

Previous vs subsequent Returns

Is there a correlation between past and future returns over all 10-year rolling periods?

The following chart illustrates the relationship between past returns (x-axis) and subsequent returns (y-axis).

Data points are aggregated to show occurrences, and you can zoom in by clicking or drawing over the desired area.

TYLER PINWHEEL TO EUR PORTFOLIO
Previous vs Next Returns - 10 Years annualized
Time Period: 1 June 1995 - 31 May 2025 (30 Years)
Time Period: 1 January 1976 - 31 May 2025 (~49 years)

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As of May 31, 2025, the annualized return of the previous 10 years has been 6.34%.

Rolling Returns

A rolling return is a measure of investment performance that calculates the return of an investment over a set period of time, with the starting date rolling forward. This approach can provide a more accurate representation of the investment's historical performance and helps investors to evaluate the investment's consistency over time.

TYLER PINWHEEL TO EUR PORTFOLIO
Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Returns - Inflation Adjusted
Time Period: 1 June 1995 - 31 May 2025 (30 Years)
Time Period: 1 January 1976 - 31 May 2025 (~49 years)
Eurozone Inflation Adjusted:

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Rolling Period Analysis

By selecting the 'Rolling Period', the chart and data will update. To study a different date range, change the simulation settings.

TYLER PINWHEEL TO EUR PORTFOLIO
Rolling Returns Chart
Rolling Returns Chart - Inflation Adjusted
Time Period: 1 January 1976 - 31 May 2025 (~49 years)
Eurozone Inflation Adjusted:

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Swipe left to see all data
Worst Median Best Negative Periods
-26.90%
Apr 2002 - Mar 2003
+8.95% +53.67%
Aug 1982 - Jul 1983
21.82%
127 out of 582
-28.59%
Apr 2002 - Mar 2003
+6.74% +49.40%
Aug 1982 - Jul 1983
26.46%
154 out of 582
-14.44%
Apr 2007 - Mar 2009
+9.74% +32.83%
Feb 1982 - Jan 1984
14.04%
80 out of 570
-16.20%
Mar 2007 - Feb 2009
+7.55% +28.51%
Feb 1982 - Jan 1984
19.12%
109 out of 570
-9.02%
Apr 2006 - Mar 2009
+9.27% +31.03%
Jun 1982 - May 1985
10.39%
58 out of 558
-10.83%
Apr 2006 - Mar 2009
+6.84% +27.39%
Jun 1982 - May 1985
13.44%
75 out of 558
-2.66%
Nov 2000 - Oct 2004
+9.12% +26.07%
Aug 1979 - Jul 1983
4.03%
22 out of 546
-4.78%
Nov 2000 - Oct 2004
+6.94% +21.10%
Mar 1981 - Feb 1985
8.79%
48 out of 546
-0.12%
May 2000 - Apr 2005
+8.16% +26.17%
Dec 1978 - Nov 1983
0.19%
1 out of 534
-2.32%
May 2000 - Apr 2005
+6.23% +21.14%
Apr 1980 - Mar 1985
3.75%
20 out of 534
+0.49%
Feb 1985 - Jan 1991
+8.33% +25.57%
Mar 1979 - Feb 1985
0.00%
0 out of 522
-1.23%
Feb 1985 - Jan 1991
+6.27% +20.27%
Mar 1979 - Feb 1985
1.34%
7 out of 522
-1.56%
Apr 2002 - Mar 2009
+8.29% +23.79%
Mar 1978 - Feb 1985
0.78%
4 out of 510
-3.56%
Apr 2002 - Mar 2009
+6.18% +18.82%
Mar 1978 - Feb 1985
2.35%
12 out of 510
-0.26%
Apr 2001 - Mar 2009
+8.15% +20.47%
Mar 1977 - Feb 1985
0.80%
4 out of 498
-2.33%
Apr 2001 - Mar 2009
+6.21% +15.89%
Apr 1978 - Mar 1986
3.01%
15 out of 498
+0.11%
Apr 2000 - Mar 2009
+8.16% +18.95%
Mar 1976 - Feb 1985
0.00%
0 out of 486
-1.98%
Apr 2000 - Mar 2009
+6.25% +14.39%
Jun 1976 - May 1985
2.47%
12 out of 486
+2.73%
Jul 1999 - Jun 2009
+8.42% +17.42%
Jan 1976 - Dec 1985
0.00%
0 out of 474
+0.58%
Jul 1999 - Jun 2009
+6.43% +13.29%
Jun 1976 - May 1986
0.00%
0 out of 474
+2.20%
Apr 1998 - Mar 2009
+8.52% +15.89%
Oct 1978 - Sep 1989
0.00%
0 out of 462
+0.19%
Apr 1998 - Mar 2009
+6.47% +12.51%
Oct 1978 - Sep 1989
0.00%
0 out of 462
+3.65%
Aug 1997 - Jul 2009
+8.31% +14.73%
Sep 1977 - Aug 1989
0.00%
0 out of 450
+1.72%
Aug 1997 - Jul 2009
+6.17% +11.45%
Sep 1977 - Aug 1989
0.00%
0 out of 450
+4.18%
Sep 2000 - Aug 2013
+8.30% +14.52%
Sep 1976 - Aug 1989
0.00%
0 out of 438
+2.08%
Sep 2000 - Aug 2013
+6.13% +11.18%
Sep 1976 - Aug 1989
0.00%
0 out of 438
+4.65%
May 2000 - Apr 2014
+8.36% +14.34%
Nov 1979 - Oct 1993
0.00%
0 out of 426
+2.57%
May 2000 - Apr 2014
+6.14% +10.92%
Nov 1979 - Oct 1993
0.00%
0 out of 426
+4.41%
Mar 1994 - Feb 2009
+8.35% +14.93%
Jan 1979 - Dec 1993
0.00%
0 out of 414
+2.38%
Mar 1994 - Feb 2009
+6.11% +11.37%
Jan 1979 - Dec 1993
0.00%
0 out of 414
+5.31%
Apr 2002 - Mar 2018
+8.06% +14.49%
Feb 1978 - Jan 1994
0.00%
0 out of 402
+3.31%
Apr 1993 - Mar 2009
+6.02% +11.01%
Feb 1978 - Jan 1994
0.00%
0 out of 402
+5.25%
Sep 2000 - Aug 2017
+7.87% +13.61%
Feb 1977 - Jan 1994
0.00%
0 out of 390
+3.48%
Sep 2000 - Aug 2017
+5.79% +10.17%
Feb 1977 - Jan 1994
0.00%
0 out of 390
+5.09%
Apr 2002 - Mar 2020
+7.86% +13.70%
Jan 1976 - Dec 1993
0.00%
0 out of 378
+3.42%
Nov 2000 - Oct 2018
+5.71% +10.28%
Aug 1979 - Jul 1997
0.00%
0 out of 378
+5.24%
Jun 2001 - May 2020
+7.89% +13.55%
Oct 1978 - Sep 1997
0.00%
0 out of 366
+3.61%
Jun 2001 - May 2020
+5.68% +10.24%
Oct 1978 - Sep 1997
0.00%
0 out of 366
+5.18%
Nov 2000 - Oct 2020
+7.94% +13.31%
Mar 1978 - Feb 1998
0.00%
0 out of 354
+3.49%
Apr 2000 - Mar 2020
+5.72% +10.30%
Apr 1980 - Mar 2000
0.00%
0 out of 354
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