Paul Merriman Ultimate Buy and Hold Strategy Portfolio: Rolling Returns

Last Update: 31 May 2023

Implementing the Paul Merriman Ultimate Buy and Hold Strategy Portfolio, how long should you stay invested to have high probability to obtain a positive return?

Considering all 6 years rolling periods, you would have obtained a positive returns 100.00% of times

Considering all 3 years rolling periods, you would have obtained a positive returns 92.32% of times

All the returns are calculated over the available historical serie, starting from January 1976 until May 2023.

In order to have complete information about the portfolio, please refer to the Paul Merriman Ultimate Buy and Hold Strategy Portfolio: ETF allocation and returns page.

Rolling Returns

Paul Merriman Ultimate Buy and Hold Strategy Portfolio: annualized rolling and average returns

Swipe left to see all data

Rolling Period	Annualized Return (%)				Negative Periods
Rolling Period	Average	Latest	Best	Worst	Negative Periods
1 Year	12.74	-4.73	68.65 Mar 2009 - Feb 2010	-49.19 Mar 2008 - Feb 2009	23.12%
2 Years	12.20	-5.94	45.51 Mar 2009 - Feb 2011	-30.72 Mar 2007 - Feb 2009	10.26%
3 Years	11.93	9.63	40.49 Aug 1984 - Jul 1987	-17.09 Mar 2006 - Feb 2009	7.68%
4 Years	11.75	5.81	32.84 Aug 1982 - Jul 1986	-9.15 Mar 2005 - Feb 2009	6.51%
5 Years	11.68	3.48	34.09 Aug 1982 - Jul 1987	-3.83 Mar 2004 - Feb 2009	3.73%
6 Years	11.63	4.93	27.27 Aug 1982 - Jul 1988	1.26 Dec 2006 - Nov 2012	0.00%
7 Years	11.67	6.67	27.11 Aug 1982 - Jul 1989	2.03 Mar 2002 - Feb 2009	0.00%
8 Years	11.64	5.41	23.78 Aug 1982 - Jul 1990	1.36 Mar 2001 - Feb 2009	0.00%
9 Years	11.66	5.37	22.26 Mar 1978 - Feb 1987	1.34 Mar 2000 - Feb 2009	0.00%
10 Years	11.65	6.63	21.79 Sep 1977 - Aug 1987	3.22 Mar 1999 - Feb 2009	0.00%
11 Years	11.55	8.38	21.03 Sep 1976 - Aug 1987	2.26 Mar 1998 - Feb 2009	0.00%
12 Years	11.41	6.62	19.92 Oct 1977 - Sep 1989	3.26 Mar 1997 - Feb 2009	0.00%
13 Years	11.33	8.24	19.40 Sep 1976 - Aug 1989	2.95 Apr 2007 - Mar 2020	0.00%
14 Years	11.21	9.16	19.33 Jan 1976 - Dec 1989	3.90 Apr 2006 - Mar 2020	0.00%
15 Years	11.12	5.46	18.75 Aug 1982 - Jul 1997	4.09 Oct 2007 - Sep 2022	0.00%
20 Years	11.09	8.68	16.46 Jan 1976 - Dec 1995	6.29 Apr 2000 - Mar 2020	0.00%
30 Years	11.14	8.17	14.98 Jun 1977 - May 2007	8.02 Apr 1990 - Mar 2020	0.00%

Annualized rolling and average returns over full calendar month periods

Annualized Rolling Returns - 1 Year (12 months)

Swipe left to see all data

Average Return	Best Return	Worst Return	Negative Periods
+12.74%	+68.65% Mar 2009 - Feb 2010	-49.19% Mar 2008 - Feb 2009	23.12% 129 out of 558

1 Year Annualized Rolling Returns over time

1 Year Annualized Rolling Returns Histogram

Annualized Rolling Returns - 2 Years (24 months)

Swipe left to see all data

Average Return	Best Return	Worst Return	Negative Periods
+12.20%	+45.51% Mar 2009 - Feb 2011	-30.72% Mar 2007 - Feb 2009	10.26% 56 out of 546

2 Years Annualized Rolling Returns over time

2 Years Annualized Rolling Returns Histogram

Annualized Rolling Returns - 3 Years (36 months)

Swipe left to see all data

Average Return	Best Return	Worst Return	Negative Periods
+11.93%	+40.49% Aug 1984 - Jul 1987	-17.09% Mar 2006 - Feb 2009	7.68% 41 out of 534

3 Years Annualized Rolling Returns over time

3 Years Annualized Rolling Returns Histogram

Annualized Rolling Returns - 4 Years (48 months)

Swipe left to see all data

Average Return	Best Return	Worst Return	Negative Periods
+11.75%	+32.84% Aug 1982 - Jul 1986	-9.15% Mar 2005 - Feb 2009	6.51% 34 out of 522

4 Years Annualized Rolling Returns over time

4 Years Annualized Rolling Returns Histogram

Annualized Rolling Returns - 5 Years (60 months)

Swipe left to see all data

Average Return	Best Return	Worst Return	Negative Periods
+11.68%	+34.09% Aug 1982 - Jul 1987	-3.83% Mar 2004 - Feb 2009	3.73% 19 out of 510

5 Years Annualized Rolling Returns over time

5 Years Annualized Rolling Returns Histogram

Annualized Rolling Returns - 6 Years (72 months)

Swipe left to see all data

Average Return	Best Return	Worst Return	Negative Periods
+11.63%	+27.27% Aug 1982 - Jul 1988	+1.26% Dec 2006 - Nov 2012	0.00% 0 out of 498

6 Years Annualized Rolling Returns over time

6 Years Annualized Rolling Returns Histogram

Annualized Rolling Returns - 7 Years (84 months)

Swipe left to see all data

Average Return	Best Return	Worst Return	Negative Periods
+11.67%	+27.11% Aug 1982 - Jul 1989	+2.03% Mar 2002 - Feb 2009	0.00% 0 out of 486

7 Years Annualized Rolling Returns over time

7 Years Annualized Rolling Returns Histogram

Annualized Rolling Returns - 8 Years (96 months)

Swipe left to see all data

Average Return	Best Return	Worst Return	Negative Periods
+11.64%	+23.78% Aug 1982 - Jul 1990	+1.36% Mar 2001 - Feb 2009	0.00% 0 out of 474

8 Years Annualized Rolling Returns over time

8 Years Annualized Rolling Returns Histogram

Annualized Rolling Returns - 9 Years (108 months)

Swipe left to see all data

Average Return	Best Return	Worst Return	Negative Periods
+11.66%	+22.26% Mar 1978 - Feb 1987	+1.34% Mar 2000 - Feb 2009	0.00% 0 out of 462

9 Years Annualized Rolling Returns over time

9 Years Annualized Rolling Returns Histogram

Annualized Rolling Returns - 10 Years (120 months)

Swipe left to see all data

Average Return	Best Return	Worst Return	Negative Periods
+11.65%	+21.79% Sep 1977 - Aug 1987	+3.22% Mar 1999 - Feb 2009	0.00% 0 out of 450

10 Years Annualized Rolling Returns over time

10 Years Annualized Rolling Returns Histogram

Annualized Rolling Returns - 11 Years (132 months)

Swipe left to see all data

Average Return	Best Return	Worst Return	Negative Periods
+11.55%	+21.03% Sep 1976 - Aug 1987	+2.26% Mar 1998 - Feb 2009	0.00% 0 out of 438

11 Years Annualized Rolling Returns over time

11 Years Annualized Rolling Returns Histogram

Annualized Rolling Returns - 12 Years (144 months)

Swipe left to see all data

Average Return	Best Return	Worst Return	Negative Periods
+11.41%	+19.92% Oct 1977 - Sep 1989	+3.26% Mar 1997 - Feb 2009	0.00% 0 out of 426

12 Years Annualized Rolling Returns over time

12 Years Annualized Rolling Returns Histogram

Annualized Rolling Returns - 13 Years (156 months)

Swipe left to see all data

Average Return	Best Return	Worst Return	Negative Periods
+11.33%	+19.40% Sep 1976 - Aug 1989	+2.95% Apr 2007 - Mar 2020	0.00% 0 out of 414

13 Years Annualized Rolling Returns over time

13 Years Annualized Rolling Returns Histogram

Annualized Rolling Returns - 14 Years (168 months)

Swipe left to see all data

Average Return	Best Return	Worst Return	Negative Periods
+11.21%	+19.33% Jan 1976 - Dec 1989	+3.90% Apr 2006 - Mar 2020	0.00% 0 out of 402

14 Years Annualized Rolling Returns over time

14 Years Annualized Rolling Returns Histogram

Annualized Rolling Returns - 15 Years (180 months)

Swipe left to see all data

Average Return	Best Return	Worst Return	Negative Periods
+11.12%	+18.75% Aug 1982 - Jul 1997	+4.09% Oct 2007 - Sep 2022	0.00% 0 out of 390

15 Years Annualized Rolling Returns over time

15 Years Annualized Rolling Returns Histogram

Annualized Rolling Returns - 20 Years (240 months)

Swipe left to see all data

Average Return	Best Return	Worst Return	Negative Periods
+11.09%	+16.46% Jan 1976 - Dec 1995	+6.29% Apr 2000 - Mar 2020	0.00% 0 out of 330

20 Years Annualized Rolling Returns over time

20 Years Annualized Rolling Returns Histogram

Annualized Rolling Returns - 30 Years (360 months)

Swipe left to see all data

Average Return	Best Return	Worst Return	Negative Periods
+11.14%	+14.98% Jun 1977 - May 2007	+8.02% Apr 1990 - Mar 2020	0.00% 0 out of 210

30 Years Annualized Rolling Returns over time

30 Years Annualized Rolling Returns Histogram

In order to have complete information about the portfolio, please refer to the Paul Merriman Ultimate Buy and Hold Strategy Portfolio: ETF allocation and returns page.