Consolidated Returns as of 31 March 2024
Holding the Paul Merriman Ultimate Buy and Hold Strategy Portfolio, how long should you stay invested to have high probability to obtain a positive return?
Considering all the available data source (~48 years), the longest period with a negative return lasted 68 months (from August 1997 to March 2003).
This means that every rolling period of 69 months or above has always granted a positive return.
To obtain comprehensive information, please consult the Paul Merriman Ultimate Buy and Hold Strategy Portfolio: ETF allocation and returns page.
Previous vs subsequent Returns
Considering all 10-year rolling periods, is there a relationship between past and future returns, at a given date?
In the following chart, we show how past returns (x-axis) and subsequent returns (y-axis) are related.
Neighboring data is aggregated and occurrences are indicated. It is possible to zoom by clicking or drawing the desired area
The annualized return of the last 10 years has been 6.73% (updated at Mar 31, 2024).
Rolling Returns
A rolling return is a measure of investment performance that calculates the return of an investment over a set period of time, with the starting date rolling forward. This approach can provide a more accurate representation of the investment's historical performance and helps investors to evaluate the investment's consistency over time.
Annualized Rolling Returns - 1 Year (12 months)
Median | Best | Worst | Negative Periods | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Annualized Rolling Return | +13.15% |
+68.65%
Mar 2009 - Feb 2010 |
-49.19%
Mar 2008 - Feb 2009 |
22.71%
129 out of 568 |
US Inflation Adjusted | +7.98% |
+65.10%
Mar 2009 - Feb 2010 |
-49.20%
Mar 2008 - Feb 2009 |
28.87%
164 out of 568 |
Annualized Rolling Returns - 2 Years (24 months)
Median | Best | Worst | Negative Periods | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Annualized Rolling Return | +12.60% |
+45.51%
Mar 2009 - Feb 2011 |
-30.72%
Mar 2007 - Feb 2009 |
11.51%
64 out of 556 |
US Inflation Adjusted | +8.23% |
+42.46%
Mar 2009 - Feb 2011 |
-32.12%
Mar 2007 - Feb 2009 |
19.24%
107 out of 556 |
Annualized Rolling Returns - 3 Years (36 months)
Median | Best | Worst | Negative Periods | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Annualized Rolling Return | +10.81% |
+40.49%
Aug 1984 - Jul 1987 |
-17.09%
Mar 2006 - Feb 2009 |
7.54%
41 out of 544 |
US Inflation Adjusted | +7.42% |
+36.38%
Aug 1984 - Jul 1987 |
-18.85%
Mar 2006 - Feb 2009 |
14.15%
77 out of 544 |
Annualized Rolling Returns - 4 Years (48 months)
Median | Best | Worst | Negative Periods | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Annualized Rolling Return | +11.13% |
+32.84%
Aug 1982 - Jul 1986 |
-9.15%
Mar 2005 - Feb 2009 |
6.39%
34 out of 532 |
US Inflation Adjusted | +7.62% |
+29.04%
Aug 1982 - Jul 1986 |
-11.40%
Mar 2005 - Feb 2009 |
12.22%
65 out of 532 |
Annualized Rolling Returns - 5 Years (60 months)
Median | Best | Worst | Negative Periods | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Annualized Rolling Return | +11.49% |
+34.09%
Aug 1982 - Jul 1987 |
-3.83%
Mar 2004 - Feb 2009 |
3.65%
19 out of 520 |
US Inflation Adjusted | +7.50% |
+30.01%
Aug 1982 - Jul 1987 |
-6.31%
Mar 2004 - Feb 2009 |
7.88%
41 out of 520 |
Annualized Rolling Returns - 6 Years (72 months)
Median | Best | Worst | Negative Periods | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Annualized Rolling Return | +11.01% |
+27.27%
Aug 1982 - Jul 1988 |
+1.26%
Dec 2006 - Nov 2012 |
0.00%
0 out of 508 |
US Inflation Adjusted | +7.37% |
+23.19%
Aug 1982 - Jul 1988 |
-1.00%
Dec 2006 - Nov 2012 |
2.95%
15 out of 508 |
Annualized Rolling Returns - 7 Years (84 months)
Median | Best | Worst | Negative Periods | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Annualized Rolling Return | +11.09% |
+27.11%
Aug 1982 - Jul 1989 |
+2.03%
Mar 2002 - Feb 2009 |
0.00%
0 out of 496 |
US Inflation Adjusted | +7.80% |
+22.75%
Aug 1982 - Jul 1989 |
-0.53%
Mar 2002 - Feb 2009 |
0.40%
2 out of 496 |
Annualized Rolling Returns - 8 Years (96 months)
Median | Best | Worst | Negative Periods | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Annualized Rolling Return | +10.97% |
+23.78%
Aug 1982 - Jul 1990 |
+1.36%
Mar 2001 - Feb 2009 |
0.00%
0 out of 484 |
US Inflation Adjusted | +7.94% |
+19.35%
Aug 1982 - Jul 1990 |
-1.01%
Mar 2001 - Feb 2009 |
0.41%
2 out of 484 |
Annualized Rolling Returns - 9 Years (108 months)
Median | Best | Worst | Negative Periods | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Annualized Rolling Return | +10.49% |
+22.26%
Mar 1978 - Feb 1987 |
+1.34%
Mar 2000 - Feb 2009 |
0.00%
0 out of 472 |
US Inflation Adjusted | +7.82% |
+16.84%
Aug 1982 - Jul 1991 |
-1.15%
Mar 2000 - Feb 2009 |
0.42%
2 out of 472 |
Annualized Rolling Returns - 10 Years (120 months)
Median | Best | Worst | Negative Periods | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Annualized Rolling Return | +10.65% |
+21.79%
Sep 1977 - Aug 1987 |
+3.22%
Mar 1999 - Feb 2009 |
0.00%
0 out of 460 |
US Inflation Adjusted | +7.72% |
+16.31%
Aug 1982 - Jul 1992 |
+0.62%
Mar 1999 - Feb 2009 |
0.00%
0 out of 460 |
Annualized Rolling Returns - 11 Years (132 months)
Median | Best | Worst | Negative Periods | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Annualized Rolling Return | +10.35% |
+21.03%
Sep 1976 - Aug 1987 |
+2.26%
Mar 1998 - Feb 2009 |
0.00%
0 out of 448 |
US Inflation Adjusted | +7.63% |
+16.48%
Aug 1982 - Jul 1993 |
-0.24%
Mar 1998 - Feb 2009 |
0.22%
1 out of 448 |
Annualized Rolling Returns - 12 Years (144 months)
Median | Best | Worst | Negative Periods | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Annualized Rolling Return | +10.41% |
+19.92%
Oct 1977 - Sep 1989 |
+3.26%
Mar 1997 - Feb 2009 |
0.00%
0 out of 436 |
US Inflation Adjusted | +7.65% |
+15.70%
Aug 1982 - Jul 1994 |
+0.83%
Mar 1997 - Feb 2009 |
0.00%
0 out of 436 |
Annualized Rolling Returns - 13 Years (156 months)
Median | Best | Worst | Negative Periods | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Annualized Rolling Return | +10.50% |
+19.40%
Sep 1976 - Aug 1989 |
+2.95%
Apr 2007 - Mar 2020 |
0.00%
0 out of 424 |
US Inflation Adjusted | +7.68% |
+15.04%
Aug 1982 - Jul 1995 |
+1.15%
Apr 2007 - Mar 2020 |
0.00%
0 out of 424 |
Annualized Rolling Returns - 14 Years (168 months)
Median | Best | Worst | Negative Periods | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Annualized Rolling Return | +10.15% |
+19.33%
Jan 1976 - Dec 1989 |
+3.90%
Apr 2006 - Mar 2020 |
0.00%
0 out of 412 |
US Inflation Adjusted | +7.25% |
+14.41%
Jul 1982 - Jun 1996 |
+2.02%
Apr 2006 - Mar 2020 |
0.00%
0 out of 412 |
Annualized Rolling Returns - 15 Years (180 months)
Median | Best | Worst | Negative Periods | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Annualized Rolling Return | +9.96% |
+18.75%
Aug 1982 - Jul 1997 |
+4.09%
Oct 2007 - Sep 2022 |
0.00%
0 out of 400 |
US Inflation Adjusted | +7.14% |
+14.88%
Aug 1982 - Jul 1997 |
+1.68%
Oct 2007 - Sep 2022 |
0.00%
0 out of 400 |
Annualized Rolling Returns - 16 Years (192 months)
Median | Best | Worst | Negative Periods | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Annualized Rolling Return | +10.26% |
+18.18%
Feb 1978 - Jan 1994 |
+4.26%
Nov 2007 - Oct 2023 |
0.00%
0 out of 388 |
US Inflation Adjusted | +7.44% |
+13.70%
Aug 1982 - Jul 1998 |
+1.78%
Nov 2007 - Oct 2023 |
0.00%
0 out of 388 |
Annualized Rolling Returns - 17 Years (204 months)
Median | Best | Worst | Negative Periods | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Annualized Rolling Return | +9.93% |
+17.71%
Feb 1977 - Jan 1994 |
+5.15%
Nov 2006 - Oct 2023 |
0.00%
0 out of 376 |
US Inflation Adjusted | +7.06% |
+13.51%
Aug 1982 - Jul 1999 |
+2.58%
Nov 2006 - Oct 2023 |
0.00%
0 out of 376 |
Annualized Rolling Returns - 18 Years (216 months)
Median | Best | Worst | Negative Periods | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Annualized Rolling Return | +10.38% |
+17.61%
Jan 1976 - Dec 1993 |
+6.20%
Feb 2006 - Jan 2024 |
0.00%
0 out of 364 |
US Inflation Adjusted | +7.37% |
+12.90%
Aug 1982 - Jul 2000 |
+3.63%
Feb 2006 - Jan 2024 |
0.00%
0 out of 364 |
Annualized Rolling Returns - 19 Years (228 months)
Median | Best | Worst | Negative Periods | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Annualized Rolling Return | +9.97% |
+16.65%
Jun 1977 - May 1996 |
+6.43%
Mar 1990 - Feb 2009 |
0.00%
0 out of 352 |
US Inflation Adjusted | +7.24% |
+11.90%
Aug 1982 - Jul 2001 |
+3.62%
Mar 1990 - Feb 2009 |
0.00%
0 out of 352 |
Annualized Rolling Returns - 20 Years (240 months)
Median | Best | Worst | Negative Periods | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Annualized Rolling Return | +9.63% |
+16.46%
Jan 1976 - Dec 1995 |
+6.29%
Apr 2000 - Mar 2020 |
0.00%
0 out of 340 |
US Inflation Adjusted | +7.05% |
+11.18%
Apr 1980 - Mar 2000 |
+3.78%
Mar 1989 - Feb 2009 |
0.00%
0 out of 340 |
To obtain comprehensive information, please consult the Paul Merriman Ultimate Buy and Hold Strategy Portfolio: ETF allocation and returns page.