Consolidated Returns as of 31 May 2023
Live Update: Jun 02 2023
The Merrill Lynch Edge Select Moderately Aggressive Portfolio is a High Risk portfolio and can be implemented with 12 ETFs.
It's exposed for 69% on the Stock Market.
In the last 30 Years, the Merrill Lynch Edge Select Moderately Aggressive Portfolio obtained a 7.77% compound annual return, with a 11.04% standard deviation.
Asset Allocation and ETFs
The Merrill Lynch Edge Select Moderately Aggressive Portfolio has the following asset allocation:
The Merrill Lynch Edge Select Moderately Aggressive Portfolio can be implemented with the following ETFs:
Weight (%) | Ticker | ETF Name | Investment Themes |
---|---|---|---|
25.00 |
VUG
|
Vanguard Growth | Equity, U.S., Large Cap, Growth |
17.00 |
VEU
|
Vanguard FTSE All-World ex-US | Equity, Global ex-US, Large Cap |
16.00 |
VTV
|
Vanguard Value | Equity, U.S., Large Cap, Value |
7.00 |
EEM
|
iShares MSCI Emerging Markets | Equity, Emerging Markets, Large Cap |
2.00 |
IJT
|
iShares S&P Small-Cap 600 Growth | Equity, U.S., Small Cap, Growth |
2.00 |
IJS
|
iShares S&P Small-Cap 600 Value | Equity, U.S., Small Cap, Value |
9.00 |
IEI
|
iShares 3-7 Year Treasury Bond | Bond, U.S., Intermediate-Term |
9.00 |
LQD
|
iShares Investment Grade Corporate Bond | Bond, U.S., All-Term |
7.00 |
MBB
|
iShares MBS | Bond, U.S., Long-Term |
3.00 |
HYG
|
iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corporate Bond | Bond, U.S., Intermediate-Term |
2.00 |
BIL
|
SPDR Blmbg Barclays 1-3 Mth T-Bill | Bond, U.S., Ultra Short-Term |
1.00 |
BNDX
|
Vanguard Total International Bond | Bond, Developed Markets, All-Term |
Most of Lazy Portfolios are made of common components (asset classes), very simple and well defined. For a more complete view, find out the most common ETFs you can use to build your portfolio.
Portfolio and ETF Returns as of May 31, 2023
The Merrill Lynch Edge Select Moderately Aggressive Portfolio guaranteed the following returns.
- No fees or capital gain taxes
- a rebalancing of the components at the beginning of each year (at every January 1st). How do returns change with different rebalancing strategies?
- the reinvestment of dividends
Chg (%) | Return (%) | Return (%) as of May 31, 2023 | |||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 Day | Time ET(*) | Jun 2023 | 1M | 6M | 1Y | 5Y | 10Y | 30Y |
MAX
(~38Y) |
||
Merrill Lynch Edge Select Moderately Aggressive Portfolio | 1.02 | 1.95 | -0.32 | 3.45 | 0.93 | 5.97 | 7.10 | 7.77 | 9.67 | ||
US Inflation Adjusted return | -0.32 | 1.52 | -2.75 | 2.08 | 4.31 | 5.13 | 6.69 | ||||
Components | |||||||||||
VUG
|
Vanguard Growth | 1.12 | Jun 02 2023 | 2.36 | 5.17 | 14.18 | 9.50 | 13.23 | 13.92 | 10.50 | 9.80 |
VEU
|
Vanguard FTSE All-World ex-US | 1.42 | Jun 02 2023 | 3.02 | -3.41 | 2.88 | -0.80 | 2.60 | 4.27 | 4.75 | 8.02 |
VTV
|
Vanguard Value | 1.97 | Jun 02 2023 | 2.64 | -4.12 | -6.58 | -3.93 | 8.08 | 9.73 | 9.03 | 9.87 |
EEM
|
iShares MSCI Emerging Markets | 1.72 | Jun 02 2023 | 3.53 | -2.40 | -1.90 | -8.29 | -1.39 | 1.39 | 5.57 | 7.36 |
IJT
|
iShares S&P Small-Cap 600 Growth | 3.76 | Jun 02 2023 | 4.76 | 0.19 | -7.84 | -5.98 | 3.66 | 9.17 | 9.22 | 9.84 |
IJS
|
iShares S&P Small-Cap 600 Value | 4.49 | Jun 02 2023 | 5.32 | -3.66 | -9.53 | -8.86 | 3.20 | 8.10 | 10.13 | 12.72 |
IEI
|
iShares 3-7 Year Treasury Bond | -0.62 | Jun 02 2023 | -0.33 | -0.93 | 1.68 | -1.33 | 0.87 | 0.91 | 4.24 | 4.49 |
LQD
|
iShares Investment Grade Corporate Bond | -0.27 | Jun 02 2023 | 0.04 | -1.76 | 1.82 | -2.52 | 1.68 | 2.34 | 5.20 | 4.63 |
MBB
|
iShares MBS | -0.55 | Jun 02 2023 | -0.37 | -0.67 | 1.30 | -2.89 | 0.04 | 0.92 | 3.97 | 5.31 |
HYG
|
iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corporate Bond | 0.51 | Jun 02 2023 | 1.12 | -1.23 | 0.38 | -1.98 | 2.06 | 2.93 | 5.40 | 7.36 |
BIL
|
SPDR Blmbg Barclays 1-3 Mth T-Bill | 0.01 | Jun 02 2023 | 0.07 | 0.38 | 2.15 | 3.16 | 1.33 | 0.77 | 2.20 | 3.99 |
BNDX
|
Vanguard Total International Bond | -0.39 | Jun 02 2023 | -0.28 | 0.14 | 0.92 | -1.31 | 0.44 | 1.86 | 4.93 | 6.61 |
In 2022, the Merrill Lynch Edge Select Moderately Aggressive Portfolio granted a 1.79% dividend yield. If you are interested in getting periodic income, please refer to the Merrill Lynch Edge Select Moderately Aggressive Portfolio: Dividend Yield page.
Portfolio Metrics as of May 31, 2023
Metrics of Merrill Lynch Edge Select Moderately Aggressive Portfolio, updated as of 31 May 2023.
- No fees or capital gain taxes
- a rebalancing of the components at the beginning of each year (at every January 1st). How do returns change with different rebalancing strategies?
- the reinvestment of dividends
Metrics as of May 31, 2023 | ||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | 5Y | 10Y | 20Y | 30Y |
MAX
(~38Y) |
|
Portfolio Return (%) | -0.32 | 3.85 | 3.45 | 0.93 | 6.68 | 5.97 | 7.10 | 7.77 | 7.77 | 9.67 |
US Inflation (%) | 0.00 | 0.84 | 1.90 | 3.79 | 5.77 | 3.81 | 2.68 | 2.55 | 2.51 | 2.79 |
Infl. Adjusted Return (%) | -0.32 | 2.98 | 1.52 | -2.75 | 0.86 | 2.08 | 4.31 | 5.10 | 5.13 | 6.69 |
Waiting for updates, inflation of May 2023 is temporarily set to 0%. Returns / Inflation rates over 1 year are annualized. | ||||||||||
RISK INDICATORS | ||||||||||
Standard Deviation (%) | 16.66 | 13.20 | 13.39 | 10.82 | 11.19 | 11.04 | 11.29 | |||
Sharpe Ratio | -0.13 | 0.43 | 0.35 | 0.59 | 0.59 | 0.50 | 0.50 | |||
Sortino Ratio | -0.19 | 0.58 | 0.46 | 0.78 | 0.77 | 0.66 | 0.66 | |||
MAXIMUM DRAWDOWN | ||||||||||
Drawdown Depth (%) | -11.84 | -22.31 | -22.31 | -22.31 | -38.23 | -38.23 | -38.23 | |||
Start (yyyy mm) | 2022 06 | 2022 01 | 2022 01 | 2022 01 | 2007 11 | 2007 11 | 2007 11 | |||
Bottom (yyyy mm) | 2022 09 | 2022 09 | 2022 09 | 2022 09 | 2009 02 | 2009 02 | 2009 02 | |||
Start to Bottom (# months) | 4 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 16 | 16 | 16 | |||
Start to Recovery (# months) in progress |
8
|
> 17
|
> 17
|
> 17
|
38
|
38
|
38
|
|||
ROLLING PERIOD RETURNS - Annualized | ||||||||||
Best Return (%) | 44.52 | 21.00 | 20.42 | 15.12 | 12.27 | 10.58 | ||||
Worst Return (%) | -32.30 | -8.55 | -1.13 | 1.63 | 5.27 | 7.71 | ||||
% Positive Periods | 82% | 92% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | ||||
MONTHS | ||||||||||
Positive | 0 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 22 | 38 | 79 | 157 | 232 | 304 |
Negative | 1 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 14 | 22 | 41 | 83 | 128 | 157 |
% Positive | 0% | 67% | 50% | 50% | 61% | 63% | 66% | 65% | 64% | 66% |
WITHDRAWAL RATES (WR) | ||||||||||
Safe WR (%) | 38.20 | 22.61 | 13.50 | 8.82 | 7.41 | 10.89 | ||||
Perpetual WR (%) | 0.85 | 2.04 | 4.13 | 4.85 | 4.88 | 6.27 |
- Annualized Portfolio Return: it's the annualized geometric mean return of the portfolio
- Standard Deviation: it's a measure of the dispersion of returns around the mean
- Sharpe Ratio: it's a measure of risk-adjusted performance of the portfolio. It's calculated by dividing the excess return of the portfolio over the risk-free rate by the portfolio standard deviation. The risk-free rate here considered is the 1-3 Mth T-Bill return.
- Sortino Ratio: another measure of risk-adjusted performance of the portfolio. It's a modification of the Sharpe Ratio (same formula but the denominator is the portfolio downside standard deviation).
- Maximum Drawdown: a drawdown refers to the decline in value from a relative peak value to a relative trough. A maximum drawdown is the maximum observed loss from a peak to a trough of a portfolio before a new peak is attained.
- Rolling Returns: returns over a time frame (best, worst, % of positive returns).
- Pos./Neg. Months: number of months with positive/negative return.
- Safe Withdrawal Rate (SWR): it's the percentage of the original portfolio balance that can be withdrawn at the end of each year with inflation adjustment, without the portfolio running out of money (dollar amount withdrawal).
- Perpetual Withdrawal Rate (PWR): it's the percentage of portfolio balance that can be withdrawn at the end of each year, while retaining the inflation adjusted portfolio balance (percentage withdrawal).
Portfolio Components Correlation
Correlation measures to what degree the returns of the two assets move in relation to each other.
If one variable goes up by a certain amount, the correlation coefficient indicates which way the other variable moves and by how much.
Asset correlations are calculated based on monthly returns.
Asset |
VUG
|
VEU
|
VTV
|
EEM
|
IJT
|
IJS
|
IEI
|
LQD
|
MBB
|
HYG
|
BIL
|
BNDX
|
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
VUG
|
-
|
0.74
|
0.68
|
0.61
|
0.83
|
0.72
|
0.75
|
0.82
|
0.80
|
0.88
|
0.04
|
0.93
|
VEU
|
0.74
|
-
|
0.80
|
0.92
|
0.71
|
0.71
|
0.83
|
0.93
|
0.89
|
0.83
|
0.18
|
0.81
|
VTV
|
0.68
|
0.80
|
-
|
0.58
|
0.85
|
0.89
|
0.54
|
0.66
|
0.59
|
0.84
|
-0.11
|
0.66
|
EEM
|
0.61
|
0.92
|
0.58
|
-
|
0.49
|
0.50
|
0.79
|
0.88
|
0.86
|
0.61
|
0.22
|
0.69
|
IJT
|
0.83
|
0.71
|
0.85
|
0.49
|
-
|
0.95
|
0.49
|
0.65
|
0.62
|
0.86
|
-0.27
|
0.74
|
IJS
|
0.72
|
0.71
|
0.89
|
0.50
|
0.95
|
-
|
0.43
|
0.58
|
0.54
|
0.79
|
-0.25
|
0.63
|
IEI
|
0.75
|
0.83
|
0.54
|
0.79
|
0.49
|
0.43
|
-
|
0.96
|
0.96
|
0.75
|
0.15
|
0.90
|
LQD
|
0.82
|
0.93
|
0.66
|
0.88
|
0.65
|
0.58
|
0.96
|
-
|
0.98
|
0.85
|
0.13
|
0.91
|
MBB
|
0.80
|
0.89
|
0.59
|
0.86
|
0.62
|
0.54
|
0.96
|
0.98
|
-
|
0.79
|
0.11
|
0.90
|
HYG
|
0.88
|
0.83
|
0.84
|
0.61
|
0.86
|
0.79
|
0.75
|
0.85
|
0.79
|
-
|
0.00
|
0.87
|
BIL
|
0.04
|
0.18
|
-0.11
|
0.22
|
-0.27
|
-0.25
|
0.15
|
0.13
|
0.11
|
0.00
|
-
|
0.03
|
BNDX
|
0.93
|
0.81
|
0.66
|
0.69
|
0.74
|
0.63
|
0.90
|
0.91
|
0.90
|
0.87
|
0.03
|
-
|
Asset |
VUG
|
VEU
|
VTV
|
EEM
|
IJT
|
IJS
|
IEI
|
LQD
|
MBB
|
HYG
|
BIL
|
BNDX
|
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
VUG
|
-
|
0.78
|
0.76
|
0.65
|
0.84
|
0.72
|
0.24
|
0.68
|
0.46
|
0.79
|
-0.09
|
0.58
|
VEU
|
0.78
|
-
|
0.87
|
0.92
|
0.84
|
0.84
|
0.18
|
0.69
|
0.46
|
0.83
|
-0.11
|
0.47
|
VTV
|
0.76
|
0.87
|
-
|
0.70
|
0.88
|
0.90
|
-0.06
|
0.48
|
0.22
|
0.80
|
-0.23
|
0.32
|
EEM
|
0.65
|
0.92
|
0.70
|
-
|
0.71
|
0.72
|
0.19
|
0.65
|
0.46
|
0.72
|
-0.09
|
0.42
|
IJT
|
0.84
|
0.84
|
0.88
|
0.71
|
-
|
0.94
|
0.01
|
0.55
|
0.28
|
0.83
|
-0.25
|
0.41
|
IJS
|
0.72
|
0.84
|
0.90
|
0.72
|
0.94
|
-
|
-0.12
|
0.44
|
0.18
|
0.78
|
-0.29
|
0.29
|
IEI
|
0.24
|
0.18
|
-0.06
|
0.19
|
0.01
|
-0.12
|
-
|
0.68
|
0.89
|
0.27
|
0.22
|
0.73
|
LQD
|
0.68
|
0.69
|
0.48
|
0.65
|
0.55
|
0.44
|
0.68
|
-
|
0.80
|
0.79
|
0.05
|
0.87
|
MBB
|
0.46
|
0.46
|
0.22
|
0.46
|
0.28
|
0.18
|
0.89
|
0.80
|
-
|
0.51
|
0.15
|
0.79
|
HYG
|
0.79
|
0.83
|
0.80
|
0.72
|
0.83
|
0.78
|
0.27
|
0.79
|
0.51
|
-
|
-0.11
|
0.68
|
BIL
|
-0.09
|
-0.11
|
-0.23
|
-0.09
|
-0.25
|
-0.29
|
0.22
|
0.05
|
0.15
|
-0.11
|
-
|
0.09
|
BNDX
|
0.58
|
0.47
|
0.32
|
0.42
|
0.41
|
0.29
|
0.73
|
0.87
|
0.79
|
0.68
|
0.09
|
-
|
Asset |
VUG
|
VEU
|
VTV
|
EEM
|
IJT
|
IJS
|
IEI
|
LQD
|
MBB
|
HYG
|
BIL
|
BNDX
|
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
VUG
|
-
|
0.79
|
0.78
|
0.65
|
0.79
|
0.70
|
0.15
|
0.60
|
0.38
|
0.76
|
-0.05
|
0.47
|
VEU
|
0.79
|
-
|
0.83
|
0.91
|
0.75
|
0.75
|
0.11
|
0.60
|
0.36
|
0.79
|
-0.07
|
0.35
|
VTV
|
0.78
|
0.83
|
-
|
0.66
|
0.85
|
0.88
|
-0.13
|
0.41
|
0.14
|
0.76
|
-0.18
|
0.25
|
EEM
|
0.65
|
0.91
|
0.66
|
-
|
0.60
|
0.62
|
0.14
|
0.57
|
0.36
|
0.67
|
-0.06
|
0.32
|
IJT
|
0.79
|
0.75
|
0.85
|
0.60
|
-
|
0.94
|
-0.06
|
0.44
|
0.19
|
0.75
|
-0.20
|
0.31
|
IJS
|
0.70
|
0.75
|
0.88
|
0.62
|
0.94
|
-
|
-0.16
|
0.36
|
0.11
|
0.73
|
-0.23
|
0.21
|
IEI
|
0.15
|
0.11
|
-0.13
|
0.14
|
-0.06
|
-0.16
|
-
|
0.69
|
0.87
|
0.23
|
0.15
|
0.72
|
LQD
|
0.60
|
0.60
|
0.41
|
0.57
|
0.44
|
0.36
|
0.69
|
-
|
0.78
|
0.73
|
0.03
|
0.85
|
MBB
|
0.38
|
0.36
|
0.14
|
0.36
|
0.19
|
0.11
|
0.87
|
0.78
|
-
|
0.46
|
0.08
|
0.77
|
HYG
|
0.76
|
0.79
|
0.76
|
0.67
|
0.75
|
0.73
|
0.23
|
0.73
|
0.46
|
-
|
-0.09
|
0.58
|
BIL
|
-0.05
|
-0.07
|
-0.18
|
-0.06
|
-0.20
|
-0.23
|
0.15
|
0.03
|
0.08
|
-0.09
|
-
|
0.02
|
BNDX
|
0.47
|
0.35
|
0.25
|
0.32
|
0.31
|
0.21
|
0.72
|
0.85
|
0.77
|
0.58
|
0.02
|
-
|
Asset |
VUG
|
VEU
|
VTV
|
EEM
|
IJT
|
IJS
|
IEI
|
LQD
|
MBB
|
HYG
|
BIL
|
BNDX
|
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
VUG
|
-
|
0.77
|
0.82
|
0.68
|
0.77
|
0.72
|
-0.08
|
0.32
|
0.14
|
0.63
|
-0.02
|
0.15
|
VEU
|
0.77
|
-
|
0.81
|
0.85
|
0.73
|
0.74
|
-0.13
|
0.34
|
0.10
|
0.68
|
-0.04
|
0.16
|
VTV
|
0.82
|
0.81
|
-
|
0.70
|
0.76
|
0.85
|
-0.15
|
0.28
|
0.06
|
0.65
|
-0.02
|
0.11
|
EEM
|
0.68
|
0.85
|
0.70
|
-
|
0.67
|
0.67
|
-0.10
|
0.29
|
0.10
|
0.60
|
-0.03
|
0.17
|
IJT
|
0.77
|
0.73
|
0.76
|
0.67
|
-
|
0.90
|
-0.20
|
0.20
|
0.02
|
0.62
|
-0.06
|
0.11
|
IJS
|
0.72
|
0.74
|
0.85
|
0.67
|
0.90
|
-
|
-0.19
|
0.23
|
0.02
|
0.67
|
-0.04
|
0.10
|
IEI
|
-0.08
|
-0.13
|
-0.15
|
-0.10
|
-0.20
|
-0.19
|
-
|
0.64
|
0.80
|
0.05
|
0.18
|
0.56
|
LQD
|
0.32
|
0.34
|
0.28
|
0.29
|
0.20
|
0.23
|
0.64
|
-
|
0.69
|
0.63
|
0.00
|
0.68
|
MBB
|
0.14
|
0.10
|
0.06
|
0.10
|
0.02
|
0.02
|
0.80
|
0.69
|
-
|
0.27
|
0.19
|
0.53
|
HYG
|
0.63
|
0.68
|
0.65
|
0.60
|
0.62
|
0.67
|
0.05
|
0.63
|
0.27
|
-
|
-0.03
|
0.38
|
BIL
|
-0.02
|
-0.04
|
-0.02
|
-0.03
|
-0.06
|
-0.04
|
0.18
|
0.00
|
0.19
|
-0.03
|
-
|
0.06
|
BNDX
|
0.15
|
0.16
|
0.11
|
0.17
|
0.11
|
0.10
|
0.56
|
0.68
|
0.53
|
0.38
|
0.06
|
-
|
Asset |
VUG
|
VEU
|
VTV
|
EEM
|
IJT
|
IJS
|
IEI
|
LQD
|
MBB
|
HYG
|
BIL
|
BNDX
|
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
VUG
|
-
|
0.67
|
0.84
|
0.66
|
0.81
|
0.75
|
0.02
|
0.32
|
0.18
|
0.61
|
0.02
|
0.21
|
VEU
|
0.67
|
-
|
0.71
|
0.70
|
0.62
|
0.65
|
-0.02
|
0.31
|
0.13
|
0.60
|
0.02
|
0.20
|
VTV
|
0.84
|
0.71
|
-
|
0.68
|
0.78
|
0.86
|
-0.03
|
0.29
|
0.13
|
0.64
|
0.02
|
0.17
|
EEM
|
0.66
|
0.70
|
0.68
|
-
|
0.64
|
0.64
|
0.02
|
0.28
|
0.15
|
0.54
|
0.03
|
0.19
|
IJT
|
0.81
|
0.62
|
0.78
|
0.64
|
-
|
0.91
|
-0.11
|
0.20
|
0.05
|
0.61
|
-0.04
|
0.14
|
IJS
|
0.75
|
0.65
|
0.86
|
0.64
|
0.91
|
-
|
-0.11
|
0.22
|
0.06
|
0.66
|
-0.02
|
0.13
|
IEI
|
0.02
|
-0.02
|
-0.03
|
0.02
|
-0.11
|
-0.11
|
-
|
0.73
|
0.83
|
0.13
|
0.24
|
0.67
|
LQD
|
0.32
|
0.31
|
0.29
|
0.28
|
0.20
|
0.22
|
0.73
|
-
|
0.74
|
0.59
|
0.09
|
0.74
|
MBB
|
0.18
|
0.13
|
0.13
|
0.15
|
0.05
|
0.06
|
0.83
|
0.74
|
-
|
0.30
|
0.27
|
0.63
|
HYG
|
0.61
|
0.60
|
0.64
|
0.54
|
0.61
|
0.66
|
0.13
|
0.59
|
0.30
|
-
|
0.01
|
0.39
|
BIL
|
0.02
|
0.02
|
0.02
|
0.03
|
-0.04
|
-0.02
|
0.24
|
0.09
|
0.27
|
0.01
|
-
|
0.15
|
BNDX
|
0.21
|
0.20
|
0.17
|
0.19
|
0.14
|
0.13
|
0.67
|
0.74
|
0.63
|
0.39
|
0.15
|
-
|
If you want to learn more about historical correlations, you can find out here how the main asset class are correlated to each other.
Capital Growth as of May 31, 2023
The Inflation Adjusted Capital now would be 4488.63$, with a net total return of 348.86% (5.13% annualized).
The Inflation Adjusted Capital now would be 12042.08$, with a net total return of 1104.21% (6.69% annualized).
Drawdowns
A drawdown refers to the decline in value from a relative peak value to a relative trough. A maximum drawdown is the maximum observed loss from a peak to a trough of a portfolio before a new peak is attained.
Drawdown period |
Recovery period |
Total |
||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Drawdown | Start | Bottom | #Months | End | #Months | #Months |
-38.23% | Nov 2007 | Feb 2009 | 16 | Dec 2010 | 22 | 38 |
-25.60% | Sep 2000 | Sep 2002 | 25 | Jan 2004 | 16 | 41 |
-22.31% | Jan 2022 | Sep 2022 | 9 | in progress | 8 | 17 |
-14.29% | Jan 2020 | Mar 2020 | 3 | Jul 2020 | 4 | 7 |
-13.38% | May 2011 | Sep 2011 | 5 | Feb 2012 | 5 | 10 |
-10.89% | May 1998 | Aug 1998 | 4 | Nov 1998 | 3 | 7 |
-9.25% | Oct 2018 | Dec 2018 | 3 | Apr 2019 | 4 | 7 |
-8.54% | Jun 2015 | Feb 2016 | 9 | Jul 2016 | 5 | 14 |
-6.49% | Feb 1994 | Mar 1994 | 2 | Mar 1995 | 12 | 14 |
-5.96% | Apr 2012 | May 2012 | 2 | Sep 2012 | 4 | 6 |
-5.14% | Aug 1997 | Aug 1997 | 1 | Feb 1998 | 6 | 7 |
-4.85% | Apr 2000 | May 2000 | 2 | Aug 2000 | 3 | 5 |
-4.24% | May 2019 | May 2019 | 1 | Jun 2019 | 1 | 2 |
-4.23% | Feb 2018 | Apr 2018 | 3 | Aug 2018 | 4 | 7 |
-3.83% | Jan 2000 | Jan 2000 | 1 | Mar 2000 | 2 | 3 |
-3.62% | Sep 2020 | Oct 2020 | 2 | Nov 2020 | 1 | 3 |
-3.32% | Mar 2005 | Apr 2005 | 2 | Jun 2005 | 2 | 4 |
-3.28% | Sep 2021 | Sep 2021 | 1 | Oct 2021 | 1 | 2 |
-3.20% | Jul 1996 | Jul 1996 | 1 | Sep 1996 | 2 | 3 |
-3.19% | Mar 2004 | Jul 2004 | 5 | Oct 2004 | 3 | 8 |
Drawdown period |
Recovery period |
Total |
||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Drawdown | Start | Bottom | #Months | End | #Months | #Months |
-38.23% | Nov 2007 | Feb 2009 | 16 | Dec 2010 | 22 | 38 |
-25.60% | Sep 2000 | Sep 2002 | 25 | Jan 2004 | 16 | 41 |
-22.31% | Jan 2022 | Sep 2022 | 9 | in progress | 8 | 17 |
-19.36% | Sep 1987 | Nov 1987 | 3 | Jan 1989 | 14 | 17 |
-14.29% | Jan 2020 | Mar 2020 | 3 | Jul 2020 | 4 | 7 |
-13.38% | May 2011 | Sep 2011 | 5 | Feb 2012 | 5 | 10 |
-13.23% | Aug 1990 | Sep 1990 | 2 | Feb 1991 | 5 | 7 |
-10.89% | May 1998 | Aug 1998 | 4 | Nov 1998 | 3 | 7 |
-9.25% | Oct 2018 | Dec 2018 | 3 | Apr 2019 | 4 | 7 |
-8.54% | Jun 2015 | Feb 2016 | 9 | Jul 2016 | 5 | 14 |
-7.54% | Jan 1990 | Apr 1990 | 4 | Jun 1990 | 2 | 6 |
-6.49% | Feb 1994 | Mar 1994 | 2 | Mar 1995 | 12 | 14 |
-5.96% | Apr 2012 | May 2012 | 2 | Sep 2012 | 4 | 6 |
-5.19% | Sep 1986 | Sep 1986 | 1 | Jan 1987 | 4 | 5 |
-5.14% | Aug 1997 | Aug 1997 | 1 | Feb 1998 | 6 | 7 |
-4.85% | Apr 2000 | May 2000 | 2 | Aug 2000 | 3 | 5 |
-4.24% | May 2019 | May 2019 | 1 | Jun 2019 | 1 | 2 |
-4.23% | Feb 2018 | Apr 2018 | 3 | Aug 2018 | 4 | 7 |
-3.84% | Jun 1991 | Jun 1991 | 1 | Aug 1991 | 2 | 3 |
-3.83% | Jan 2000 | Jan 2000 | 1 | Mar 2000 | 2 | 3 |
Rolling Returns ( more details)
A rolling return is a measure of investment performance that calculates the return of an investment over a set period of time, with the starting date rolling forward. This approach can provide a more accurate representation of the investment's historical performance and helps investors to evaluate the investment's consistency over time.
Rolling Period |
Annualized Return (%) | Negative Periods |
|||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Average | Latest | Best | Worst | ||
1 Year |
10.15 | 0.93 |
44.52 Mar 2009 - Feb 2010 |
-32.30 Mar 2008 - Feb 2009 |
18.44% |
2 Years |
9.72 | -3.26 |
31.66 Sep 1985 - Aug 1987 |
-16.37 Mar 2007 - Feb 2009 |
12.33% |
3 Years |
9.45 | 6.68 |
21.00 Mar 2009 - Feb 2012 |
-8.55 Apr 2000 - Mar 2003 |
7.98% |
5 Years |
9.22 | 5.97 |
20.42 Jan 1985 - Dec 1989 |
-1.13 Mar 2004 - Feb 2009 |
0.50% |
7 Years |
9.08 | 7.64 |
18.16 Jan 1985 - Dec 1991 |
1.63 Mar 2002 - Feb 2009 |
0.00% |
10 Years |
8.89 | 7.10 |
15.12 Oct 1985 - Sep 1995 |
1.63 Mar 1999 - Feb 2009 |
0.00% |
15 Years |
8.37 | 6.43 |
15.78 Jan 1985 - Dec 1999 |
5.31 Sep 2000 - Aug 2015 |
0.00% |
20 Years |
8.35 | 7.77 |
12.27 Jan 1985 - Dec 2004 |
5.27 Apr 2000 - Mar 2020 |
0.00% |
30 Years |
8.92 | 7.77 |
10.58 Jan 1985 - Dec 2014 |
7.71 Oct 1992 - Sep 2022 |
0.00% |
If you need a deeper detail about rolling returns, please refer to the Merrill Lynch Edge Select Moderately Aggressive Portfolio: Rolling Returns page.
Previous vs subsequent Returns
Considering all 10-year rolling periods, is there a relationship between past and future returns, at a given date?
In the following chart, we show how past returns (x-axis) and subsequent returns (y-axis) are related.
Neighboring data is aggregated and occurrences are indicated. It is possible to zoom by clicking or drawing the desired area
The annualized return of the last 10 years has been 7.10% (updated at May 31, 2023).
Seasonality
In which months is it better to invest in Merrill Lynch Edge Select Moderately Aggressive Portfolio?
For further information about the seasonality, check the Asset Class Seasonality page.
Monthly Average Return (%) and Gain Frequency | ||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Return (%) | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
Average Gain Frequency |
1.75
40% |
-1.40
40% |
-0.59
80% |
1.53
80% |
0.14
60% |
0.59
60% |
2.65
100% |
0.56
60% |
-2.43
40% |
0.46
60% |
3.40
80% |
0.07
60% |
Capital Growth on monthly avg returns | ||||||||||||
100
|
101.75
|
100.33
|
99.73
|
101.26
|
101.40
|
101.99
|
104.70
|
105.28
|
102.73
|
103.20
|
106.70
|
106.77
|
Best |
6.6 2023 |
1.8 2019 |
3.3 2023 |
7.9 2020 |
3.7 2020 |
5.2 2019 |
5.6 2022 |
4.3 2020 |
1.2 2019 |
3.8 2021 |
8.4 2020 |
3.5 2020 |
Worst |
-3.9 2022 |
-4.6 2020 |
-9.8 2020 |
-6.9 2022 |
-4.2 2019 |
-6.0 2022 |
0.4 2019 |
-3.7 2022 |
-7.8 2022 |
-5.9 2018 |
-1.4 2021 |
-4.9 2018 |
Monthly Average Return (%) and Gain Frequency | ||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Return (%) | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
Average Gain Frequency |
0.79
40% |
-0.09
50% |
0.19
70% |
1.21
80% |
0.58
80% |
0.18
60% |
2.18
90% |
-0.04
60% |
-1.08
50% |
1.27
70% |
2.12
80% |
0.16
60% |
Capital Growth on monthly avg returns | ||||||||||||
100
|
100.79
|
100.70
|
100.89
|
102.11
|
102.71
|
102.89
|
105.14
|
105.10
|
103.96
|
105.28
|
107.51
|
107.68
|
Best |
6.6 2023 |
3.7 2015 |
5.9 2016 |
7.9 2020 |
3.7 2020 |
5.2 2019 |
5.6 2022 |
4.3 2020 |
3.9 2013 |
5.3 2015 |
8.4 2020 |
3.5 2020 |
Worst |
-3.9 2022 |
-4.6 2020 |
-9.8 2020 |
-6.9 2022 |
-4.2 2019 |
-6.0 2022 |
-1.1 2014 |
-4.8 2015 |
-7.8 2022 |
-5.9 2018 |
-1.4 2021 |
-4.9 2018 |
Monthly Average Return (%) and Gain Frequency | ||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Return (%) | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
Average Gain Frequency |
1.07
62% |
0.56
59% |
0.78
69% |
1.48
79% |
0.90
67% |
0.35
61% |
1.25
63% |
-0.01
61% |
-0.42
55% |
0.84
66% |
1.35
71% |
1.75
79% |
Capital Growth on monthly avg returns | ||||||||||||
100
|
101.07
|
101.64
|
102.44
|
103.96
|
104.90
|
105.26
|
106.57
|
106.56
|
106.11
|
107.00
|
108.44
|
110.33
|
Best |
9.4 1987 |
7.1 1986 |
6.5 2009 |
8.6 2009 |
7.8 1990 |
5.2 2019 |
7.0 2009 |
5.6 1986 |
6.9 2010 |
8.2 2011 |
8.4 2020 |
10.2 1991 |
Worst |
-6.6 2009 |
-7.1 2009 |
-9.8 2020 |
-6.9 2022 |
-6.1 2010 |
-6.0 2022 |
-5.3 2002 |
-10.4 1998 |
-8.1 2008 |
-14.6 1987 |
-4.6 2000 |
-4.9 2018 |
Monthly/Yearly Returns
Merrill Lynch Edge Select Moderately Aggressive Portfolio data source starts from January 1985: let's focus on monthly and yearly returns.
- Histogram: it shows the distribution of the returns recorded so far
- Plain Table: it shows the detailed monthly and yearly returns
Yearly Return(%) |
Monthly Return(%) |
|||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Year | Total | Infl.Adj | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
2023 |
+7.26 | +4.94 | 6.6 | -3.1 | 3.3 | 0.9 | -0.3 | |||||||
2022 |
-17.08 | -22.11 | -3.9 | -2.4 | 0.3 | -6.9 | 0.6 | -6.0 | 5.6 | -3.7 | -7.8 | 3.8 | 6.6 | -3.6 |
2021 |
+12.88 | +5.46 | 0.0 | 1.4 | 1.7 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 1.8 | -3.3 | 3.8 | -1.4 | 2.5 |
2020 |
+16.02 | +14.46 | -0.3 | -4.6 | -9.8 | 7.9 | 3.7 | 2.6 | 4.4 | 4.3 | -2.3 | -1.4 | 8.4 | 3.5 |
2019 |
+22.30 | +19.57 | 6.4 | 1.8 | 1.6 | 2.7 | -4.2 | 5.2 | 0.4 | -0.9 | 1.2 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.7 |
2018 |
-5.68 | -7.45 | 3.8 | -3.3 | -0.9 | -0.2 | 1.1 | -0.3 | 2.4 | 1.3 | 0.0 | -5.9 | 1.4 | -4.9 |
2017 |
+18.60 | +16.15 | 2.2 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 1.3 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 1.3 | 1.7 | 1.4 | 1.3 |
2016 |
+8.18 | +5.98 | -3.5 | -0.3 | 5.9 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.8 | 3.1 | 0.3 | 0.6 | -1.6 | 0.5 | 1.3 |
2015 |
-1.40 | -2.12 | -0.6 | 3.7 | -1.4 | 2.0 | 0.0 | -1.8 | 0.7 | -4.8 | -2.0 | 5.3 | -0.3 | -1.9 |
2014 |
+6.31 | +5.51 | -2.6 | 3.6 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 2.0 | 1.6 | -1.1 | 2.7 | -2.5 | 1.8 | 1.2 | -1.0 |
2013 |
+16.88 | +15.15 | 2.6 | 0.3 | 1.9 | 1.8 | -0.4 | -2.2 | 3.8 | -2.0 | 3.9 | 3.2 | 1.4 | 1.5 |
2012 |
+13.59 | +11.65 | 4.7 | 3.4 | 0.9 | -0.5 | -5.5 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 1.8 | 2.2 | -0.8 | 0.9 | 1.8 |
2011 |
-0.71 | -3.57 | 0.9 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 3.0 | -0.9 | -1.1 | -0.9 | -4.5 | -6.6 | 8.2 | -1.0 | 0.3 |
2010 |
+13.09 | +11.43 | -2.9 | 2.0 | 4.5 | 1.0 | -6.1 | -2.2 | 6.1 | -2.5 | 6.9 | 2.8 | -0.9 | 4.6 |
2009 |
+26.40 | +23.05 | -6.6 | -7.1 | 6.5 | 8.6 | 6.3 | 0.0 | 7.0 | 2.0 | 4.2 | -1.9 | 4.6 | 1.6 |
2008 |
-25.92 | -25.99 | -4.3 | -0.9 | -0.5 | 3.8 | 1.0 | -5.7 | -1.2 | -0.4 | -8.1 | -13.0 | -3.7 | 4.8 |
2007 |
+9.49 | +5.20 | 1.0 | -0.5 | 1.3 | 3.0 | 2.3 | -0.5 | -1.6 | 1.2 | 4.0 | 3.0 | -3.0 | -0.8 |
2006 |
+14.56 | +11.72 | 3.5 | -0.2 | 1.2 | 1.8 | -3.1 | 0.0 | 0.5 | 2.1 | 1.3 | 3.0 | 2.5 | 1.3 |
2005 |
+8.32 | +4.74 | -1.3 | 2.3 | -2.2 | -1.1 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 2.7 | 0.4 | 1.6 | -2.2 | 2.9 | 1.6 |
2004 |
+11.86 | +8.33 | 1.6 | 1.6 | -0.2 | -2.9 | 0.7 | 1.6 | -2.4 | 1.1 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 3.8 | 3.0 |
2003 |
+25.92 | +23.60 | -1.9 | -0.9 | 0.1 | 6.1 | 4.5 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 4.4 | 1.2 | 4.4 |
2002 |
-9.91 | -12.00 | -0.8 | -0.3 | 2.6 | -1.8 | -0.1 | -4.3 | -5.3 | 1.0 | -6.1 | 4.4 | 3.5 | -2.4 |
2001 |
-6.23 | -7.67 | 3.1 | -5.9 | -4.8 | 5.1 | 0.0 | -1.5 | -0.5 | -2.6 | -6.0 | 2.6 | 3.9 | 1.0 |
2000 |
-5.49 | -8.59 | -3.8 | 1.0 | 4.6 | -3.0 | -1.9 | 3.4 | -1.7 | 3.6 | -3.5 | -1.1 | -4.6 | 2.0 |
1999 |
+18.91 | +15.80 | 1.8 | -2.5 | 3.6 | 3.7 | -2.5 | 3.9 | -1.4 | -0.3 | -0.7 | 3.7 | 2.6 | 5.8 |
1998 |
+16.84 | +14.99 | 1.0 | 5.2 | 3.2 | 0.6 | -1.9 | 1.6 | -0.3 | -10.4 | 3.9 | 5.9 | 4.3 | 3.5 |
1997 |
+16.20 | +14.26 | 2.8 | 0.8 | -2.6 | 3.0 | 4.7 | 3.7 | 4.7 | -5.1 | 4.3 | -3.9 | 2.0 | 1.3 |
1996 |
+13.20 | +9.56 | 2.4 | 0.0 | 0.6 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 0.5 | -3.2 | 1.3 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 4.7 | -1.3 |
1995 |
+23.22 | +20.17 | 0.2 | 1.7 | 2.5 | 2.7 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 2.7 | -0.2 | 2.6 | -0.4 | 3.0 | 2.1 |
1994 |
+0.12 | -2.49 | 3.9 | -2.4 | -4.2 | 1.2 | 0.8 | -0.8 | 2.2 | 3.0 | -2.1 | 1.6 | -3.3 | 0.6 |
1993 |
+19.47 | +16.27 | 1.8 | 1.5 | 3.6 | 1.0 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 1.3 | 3.6 | -0.9 | 2.6 | -2.7 | 3.8 |
1992 |
+3.95 | +1.02 | -0.9 | 0.1 | -2.2 | 1.3 | 3.1 | -2.3 | 2.5 | -0.2 | 0.2 | -0.6 | 2.1 | 1.0 |
1991 |
+31.55 | +27.64 | 3.4 | 6.7 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 3.1 | -3.8 | 3.6 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 2.3 | -2.9 | 10.2 |
1990 |
-3.49 | -9.05 | -4.8 | -0.7 | -0.5 | -1.8 | 7.8 | 0.8 | 1.4 | -8.1 | -5.6 | 3.7 | 2.8 | 2.4 |
1989 |
+26.95 | +21.32 | 4.6 | -0.3 | 0.3 | 3.8 | 2.9 | -0.3 | 6.6 | 1.2 | 2.1 | -1.6 | 2.3 | 2.8 |
1988 |
+16.80 | +11.86 | 4.8 | 4.2 | -0.9 | 0.6 | -0.7 | 3.8 | -0.5 | -2.5 | 3.3 | 2.6 | 0.1 | 1.2 |
1987 |
+4.39 | -0.05 | 9.4 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.4 | -0.4 | 2.0 | 2.9 | 3.6 | -2.2 | -14.6 | -3.4 | 4.0 |
1986 |
+23.79 | +22.45 | 0.9 | 7.1 | 6.2 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 3.1 | -1.7 | 5.6 | -5.2 | 1.5 | 2.4 | -0.3 |
1985 |
+32.17 | +27.33 | 6.9 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 5.9 | 1.7 | -0.1 | 0.3 | -2.0 | 3.9 | 5.9 | 4.4 |
Portofolio Returns, up to December 2013, are simulated. They have been calculated using the historical series of equivalent ETFs / Assets, instead of the actual ETFs of the portfolio.
In particular, it has been used:
- VUG - Vanguard Growth: simulated historical serie, up to December 2004
- VEU - Vanguard FTSE All-World ex-US: simulated historical serie, up to December 2007
- VTV - Vanguard Value: simulated historical serie, up to December 2004
- EEM - iShares MSCI Emerging Markets: simulated historical serie, up to December 2003
- IJT - iShares S&P Small-Cap 600 Growth: simulated historical serie, up to December 2000
- IJS - iShares S&P Small-Cap 600 Value: simulated historical serie, up to December 2000
- IEI - iShares 3-7 Year Treasury Bond: simulated historical serie, up to December 2007
- LQD - iShares Investment Grade Corporate Bond: simulated historical serie, up to December 2002
- MBB - iShares MBS: simulated historical serie, up to December 2007
- HYG - iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corporate Bond: simulated historical serie, up to December 2007
- BIL - SPDR Blmbg Barclays 1-3 Mth T-Bill: simulated historical serie, up to December 2007
- BNDX - Vanguard Total International Bond: simulated historical serie, up to December 2013
Portfolio efficiency
Compared to the Merrill Lynch Edge Select Moderately Aggressive Portfolio, the following portfolios granted a higher return over 30 Years and a less severe drawdown at the same time.
30 Years Stats (%) |
% Allocation |
|||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Portfolio | Return▾ | Dev.Std | Drawdown | Stocks | Bonds | Comm | ||
Stocks/Bonds 60/40 Momentum | +9.28 | 9.43 | -32.52 | 60 | 40 | 0 | ||
Stocks/Bonds 60/40 | +7.93 | 9.46 | -30.55 | 60 | 40 | 0 | ||
Couch Potato | +7.88 | 8.66 | -27.04 | 50 | 50 | 0 | ||
Edge Select Moderately Aggressive | +7.77 | 11.04 | -38.23 | 69 | 31 | 0 |
Here's a list containing the Best Classic Portfolios, with the highest returns over 30 Years and High Risk categorization.
30 Years Stats (%) |
% Allocation |
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---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Portfolio | Return▾ | Dev.Std | Drawdown | Stocks | Bonds | Comm | ||
Stocks/Bonds 60/40 Momentum | +9.28 | 9.43 | -32.52 | 60 | 40 | 0 | ||
Simple Path to Wealth | +8.66 | 11.60 | -38.53 | 75 | 25 | 0 | ||
Late Sixties and Beyond | +8.19 | 11.57 | -41.80 | 71 | 29 | 0 | ||
Yale Endowment | +8.06 | 10.83 | -39.48 | 70 | 30 | 0 | ||
Talmud Portfolio | +8.00 | 10.64 | -40.17 | 66.7 | 33.3 | 0 |