Merrill Lynch Edge Select Moderate Portfolio: ETF allocation and returns

Data Source: from January 1985 to May 2023 (~38 years)
Consolidated Returns as of 31 May 2023
Live Update: Jun 02 2023

PORTFOLIO • LIVE PERFORMANCE (USD currency)

0.71%

1 Day

Jun 02 2023

1.49%

Current Month

June 2023

The Merrill Lynch Edge Select Moderate Portfolio is a High Risk portfolio and can be implemented with 12 ETFs.

It's exposed for 53% on the Stock Market.

In the last 30 Years, the Merrill Lynch Edge Select Moderate Portfolio obtained a 7.18% compound annual return, with a 8.84% standard deviation.

Asset Allocation and ETFs

The Merrill Lynch Edge Select Moderate Portfolio has the following asset allocation:

        53% Stocks
      
        47% Fixed Income
      
        0% Commodities

The Merrill Lynch Edge Select Moderate Portfolio can be implemented with the following ETFs:

Weight (%)	Ticker	ETF Name	Investment Themes
19.00	VUG	Vanguard Growth	Equity, U.S., Large Cap, Growth
13.00	VEU	Vanguard FTSE All-World ex-US	Equity, Global ex-US, Large Cap
12.00	VTV	Vanguard Value	Equity, U.S., Large Cap, Value
5.00	EEM	iShares MSCI Emerging Markets	Equity, Emerging Markets, Large Cap
2.00	IJT	iShares S&P Small-Cap 600 Growth	Equity, U.S., Small Cap, Growth
2.00	IJS	iShares S&P Small-Cap 600 Value	Equity, U.S., Small Cap, Value
14.00	IEI	iShares 3-7 Year Treasury Bond	Bond, U.S., Intermediate-Term
14.00	LQD	iShares Investment Grade Corporate Bond	Bond, U.S., All-Term
11.00	MBB	iShares MBS	Bond, U.S., Long-Term
4.00	HYG	iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corporate Bond	Bond, U.S., Intermediate-Term
2.00	BIL	SPDR Blmbg Barclays 1-3 Mth T-Bill	Bond, U.S., Ultra Short-Term
2.00	BNDX	Vanguard Total International Bond	Bond, Developed Markets, All-Term

Most of Lazy Portfolios are made of common components (asset classes), very simple and well defined. For a more complete view, find out the most common ETFs you can use to build your portfolio.

Portfolio and ETF Returns as of May 31, 2023

The Merrill Lynch Edge Select Moderate Portfolio guaranteed the following returns.

Portfolio returns are calculated in USD, assuming:

No fees or capital gain taxes
a rebalancing of the components at the beginning of each year (at every January 1st). How do returns change with different rebalancing strategies?
the reinvestment of dividends

June 2023 return is calculated on the hypothesis of a newly built portfolio, with the starting asset allocation.

MERRILL LYNCH EDGE SELECT MODERATE PORTFOLIO

Consolidated returns as of 31 May 2023

Live Update: Jun 02 2023

Swipe left to see all data

		Chg (%)		Return (%)	Return (%) as of May 31, 2023
		1 Day	*Time ET^()**	Jun 2023	1M	6M	1Y	5Y	10Y	30Y	MAX (~38Y)
Merrill Lynch Edge Select Moderate Portfolio		0.71		1.49	-0.49	2.94	0.22	4.87	5.89	7.18	8.95
US Inflation Adjusted return					-0.49	1.03	-3.43	1.02	3.13	4.56	5.99
*Components*
VUG	Vanguard Growth	1.12	Jun 02 2023	2.36	5.17	14.18	9.50	13.23	13.92	10.50	9.80
VEU	Vanguard FTSE All-World ex-US	1.42	Jun 02 2023	3.02	-3.41	2.88	-0.80	2.60	4.27	4.75	8.02
VTV	Vanguard Value	1.97	Jun 02 2023	2.64	-4.12	-6.58	-3.93	8.08	9.73	9.03	9.87
EEM	iShares MSCI Emerging Markets	1.72	Jun 02 2023	3.53	-2.40	-1.90	-8.29	-1.39	1.39	5.57	7.36
IJT	iShares S&P Small-Cap 600 Growth	3.76	Jun 02 2023	4.76	0.19	-7.84	-5.98	3.66	9.17	9.22	9.84
IJS	iShares S&P Small-Cap 600 Value	4.49	Jun 02 2023	5.32	-3.66	-9.53	-8.86	3.20	8.10	10.13	12.72
IEI	iShares 3-7 Year Treasury Bond	-0.62	Jun 02 2023	-0.33	-0.93	1.68	-1.33	0.87	0.91	4.24	4.49
LQD	iShares Investment Grade Corporate Bond	-0.27	Jun 02 2023	0.04	-1.76	1.82	-2.52	1.68	2.34	5.20	4.63
MBB	iShares MBS	-0.55	Jun 02 2023	-0.37	-0.67	1.30	-2.89	0.04	0.92	3.97	5.31
HYG	iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corporate Bond	0.51	Jun 02 2023	1.12	-1.23	0.38	-1.98	2.06	2.93	5.40	7.36
BIL	SPDR Blmbg Barclays 1-3 Mth T-Bill	0.01	Jun 02 2023	0.07	0.38	2.15	3.16	1.33	0.77	2.20	3.99
BNDX	Vanguard Total International Bond	-0.39	Jun 02 2023	-0.28	0.14	0.92	-1.31	0.44	1.86	4.93	6.61

Returns over 1 year are annualized | Available data source: since Jan 1985

(*) Eastern Time (ET - America/New York)

US Inflation is updated to Apr 2023. Waiting for updates, inflation of May 2023 is set to 0%. Current inflation (annualized) is 1Y: 3.79% , 5Y: 3.81% , 10Y: 2.68% , 30Y: 2.51%

Live update: World Markets and Indexes

In 2022, the Merrill Lynch Edge Select Moderate Portfolio granted a 1.86% dividend yield. If you are interested in getting periodic income, please refer to the Merrill Lynch Edge Select Moderate Portfolio: Dividend Yield page.

Portfolio Metrics as of May 31, 2023

Metrics of Merrill Lynch Edge Select Moderate Portfolio, updated as of 31 May 2023.

Portfolio metrics are calculated based on monthly returns, assuming:

No fees or capital gain taxes
a rebalancing of the components at the beginning of each year (at every January 1st). How do returns change with different rebalancing strategies?
the reinvestment of dividends

MERRILL LYNCH EDGE SELECT MODERATE PORTFOLIO

Portfolio Metrics

Data Source: 1 January 1985 - 31 May 2023 (~38 years)

Swipe left to see all data

	Metrics as of May 31, 2023
	1M	3M	6M	1Y	3Y	5Y	10Y	20Y	30Y	MAX (~38Y)
Portfolio Return (%)	-0.49	3.38	2.94	0.22	4.42	4.87	5.89	6.85	7.18	8.95
US Inflation (%)	0.00	0.84	1.90	3.79	5.77	3.81	2.68	2.55	2.51	2.79
Infl. Adjusted Return (%)	-0.49	2.52	1.03	-3.43	-1.28	1.02	3.13	4.19	4.56	5.99
Waiting for updates, inflation of May 2023 is temporarily set to 0%. Returns / Inflation rates over 1 year are annualized.
RISK INDICATORS
Standard Deviation (%)				14.86	11.43	11.22	8.97	9.06	8.84	9.13
Sharpe Ratio				-0.20	0.30	0.32	0.57	0.63	0.56	0.54
Sortino Ratio				-0.28	0.40	0.42	0.76	0.82	0.74	0.72
MAXIMUM DRAWDOWN
Drawdown Depth (%)				-10.63	-20.56	-20.56	-20.56	-29.58	-29.58	-29.58
Start (yyyy mm)				2022 06	2022 01	2022 01	2022 01	2007 11	2007 11	2007 11
Bottom (yyyy mm)				2022 09	2022 09	2022 09	2022 09	2009 02	2009 02	2009 02
Start to Bottom (# months)				4	9	9	9	16	16	16
Start to Recovery (# months) in progress				11	> 17	> 17	> 17	30	30	30
ROLLING PERIOD RETURNS - Annualized
Best Return (%)				37.72	18.77	18.35	13.92	11.57	9.98
Worst Return (%)				-25.06	-5.06	0.08	2.74	5.44	7.15
% Positive Periods				83%	95%	100%	100%	100%	100%
MONTHS
Positive	0	2	3	6	21	37	77	157	234	306
Negative	1	1	3	6	15	23	43	83	126	155
% Positive	0%	67%	50%	50%	58%	62%	64%	65%	65%	66%
WITHDRAWAL RATES (WR)
Safe WR (%)					36.26	22.17	12.83	8.22	7.05	9.86
Perpetual WR (%)					0.00	1.01	3.04	4.02	4.36	5.65

Terms and Definitions

Annualized Portfolio Return: it's the annualized geometric mean return of the portfolio
Standard Deviation: it's a measure of the dispersion of returns around the mean
Sharpe Ratio: it's a measure of risk-adjusted performance of the portfolio. It's calculated by dividing the excess return of the portfolio over the risk-free rate by the portfolio standard deviation. The risk-free rate here considered is the 1-3 Mth T-Bill return.

Sortino Ratio: another measure of risk-adjusted performance of the portfolio. It's a modification of the Sharpe Ratio (same formula but the denominator is the portfolio downside standard deviation).
Maximum Drawdown: a drawdown refers to the decline in value from a relative peak value to a relative trough. A maximum drawdown is the maximum observed loss from a peak to a trough of a portfolio before a new peak is attained.
Rolling Returns: returns over a time frame (best, worst, % of positive returns).

Pos./Neg. Months: number of months with positive/negative return.
Safe Withdrawal Rate (SWR): it's the percentage of the original portfolio balance that can be withdrawn at the end of each year with inflation adjustment, without the portfolio running out of money (dollar amount withdrawal).
Perpetual Withdrawal Rate (PWR): it's the percentage of portfolio balance that can be withdrawn at the end of each year, while retaining the inflation adjusted portfolio balance (percentage withdrawal).

Portfolio Components Correlation

Correlation measures to what degree the returns of the two assets move in relation to each other.

Correlation coefficient is a numerical value between -1 and +1.

If one variable goes up by a certain amount, the correlation coefficient indicates which way the other variable moves and by how much.

Asset correlations are calculated based on monthly returns.

COMPONENTS MONTHLY CORRELATIONS

Monthly correlations as of 31 May 2023

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Asset	VUG	VEU	VTV	EEM	IJT	IJS	IEI	LQD	MBB	HYG	BIL	BNDX
VUG	-	0.74	0.68	0.61	0.83	0.72	0.75	0.82	0.80	0.88	0.04	0.93
VEU	0.74	-	0.80	0.92	0.71	0.71	0.83	0.93	0.89	0.83	0.18	0.81
VTV	0.68	0.80	-	0.58	0.85	0.89	0.54	0.66	0.59	0.84	-0.11	0.66
EEM	0.61	0.92	0.58	-	0.49	0.50	0.79	0.88	0.86	0.61	0.22	0.69
IJT	0.83	0.71	0.85	0.49	-	0.95	0.49	0.65	0.62	0.86	-0.27	0.74
IJS	0.72	0.71	0.89	0.50	0.95	-	0.43	0.58	0.54	0.79	-0.25	0.63
IEI	0.75	0.83	0.54	0.79	0.49	0.43	-	0.96	0.96	0.75	0.15	0.90
LQD	0.82	0.93	0.66	0.88	0.65	0.58	0.96	-	0.98	0.85	0.13	0.91
MBB	0.80	0.89	0.59	0.86	0.62	0.54	0.96	0.98	-	0.79	0.11	0.90
HYG	0.88	0.83	0.84	0.61	0.86	0.79	0.75	0.85	0.79	-	0.00	0.87
BIL	0.04	0.18	-0.11	0.22	-0.27	-0.25	0.15	0.13	0.11	0.00	-	0.03
BNDX	0.93	0.81	0.66	0.69	0.74	0.63	0.90	0.91	0.90	0.87	0.03	-

Asset	VUG	VEU	VTV	EEM	IJT	IJS	IEI	LQD	MBB	HYG	BIL	BNDX
VUG	-	0.78	0.76	0.65	0.84	0.72	0.24	0.68	0.46	0.79	-0.09	0.58
VEU	0.78	-	0.87	0.92	0.84	0.84	0.18	0.69	0.46	0.83	-0.11	0.47
VTV	0.76	0.87	-	0.70	0.88	0.90	-0.06	0.48	0.22	0.80	-0.23	0.32
EEM	0.65	0.92	0.70	-	0.71	0.72	0.19	0.65	0.46	0.72	-0.09	0.42
IJT	0.84	0.84	0.88	0.71	-	0.94	0.01	0.55	0.28	0.83	-0.25	0.41
IJS	0.72	0.84	0.90	0.72	0.94	-	-0.12	0.44	0.18	0.78	-0.29	0.29
IEI	0.24	0.18	-0.06	0.19	0.01	-0.12	-	0.68	0.89	0.27	0.22	0.73
LQD	0.68	0.69	0.48	0.65	0.55	0.44	0.68	-	0.80	0.79	0.05	0.87
MBB	0.46	0.46	0.22	0.46	0.28	0.18	0.89	0.80	-	0.51	0.15	0.79
HYG	0.79	0.83	0.80	0.72	0.83	0.78	0.27	0.79	0.51	-	-0.11	0.68
BIL	-0.09	-0.11	-0.23	-0.09	-0.25	-0.29	0.22	0.05	0.15	-0.11	-	0.09
BNDX	0.58	0.47	0.32	0.42	0.41	0.29	0.73	0.87	0.79	0.68	0.09	-

Asset	VUG	VEU	VTV	EEM	IJT	IJS	IEI	LQD	MBB	HYG	BIL	BNDX
VUG	-	0.79	0.78	0.65	0.79	0.70	0.15	0.60	0.38	0.76	-0.05	0.47
VEU	0.79	-	0.83	0.91	0.75	0.75	0.11	0.60	0.36	0.79	-0.07	0.35
VTV	0.78	0.83	-	0.66	0.85	0.88	-0.13	0.41	0.14	0.76	-0.18	0.25
EEM	0.65	0.91	0.66	-	0.60	0.62	0.14	0.57	0.36	0.67	-0.06	0.32
IJT	0.79	0.75	0.85	0.60	-	0.94	-0.06	0.44	0.19	0.75	-0.20	0.31
IJS	0.70	0.75	0.88	0.62	0.94	-	-0.16	0.36	0.11	0.73	-0.23	0.21
IEI	0.15	0.11	-0.13	0.14	-0.06	-0.16	-	0.69	0.87	0.23	0.15	0.72
LQD	0.60	0.60	0.41	0.57	0.44	0.36	0.69	-	0.78	0.73	0.03	0.85
MBB	0.38	0.36	0.14	0.36	0.19	0.11	0.87	0.78	-	0.46	0.08	0.77
HYG	0.76	0.79	0.76	0.67	0.75	0.73	0.23	0.73	0.46	-	-0.09	0.58
BIL	-0.05	-0.07	-0.18	-0.06	-0.20	-0.23	0.15	0.03	0.08	-0.09	-	0.02
BNDX	0.47	0.35	0.25	0.32	0.31	0.21	0.72	0.85	0.77	0.58	0.02	-

Asset	VUG	VEU	VTV	EEM	IJT	IJS	IEI	LQD	MBB	HYG	BIL	BNDX
VUG	-	0.77	0.82	0.68	0.77	0.72	-0.08	0.32	0.14	0.63	-0.02	0.15
VEU	0.77	-	0.81	0.85	0.73	0.74	-0.13	0.34	0.10	0.68	-0.04	0.16
VTV	0.82	0.81	-	0.70	0.76	0.85	-0.15	0.28	0.06	0.65	-0.02	0.11
EEM	0.68	0.85	0.70	-	0.67	0.67	-0.10	0.29	0.10	0.60	-0.03	0.17
IJT	0.77	0.73	0.76	0.67	-	0.90	-0.20	0.20	0.02	0.62	-0.06	0.11
IJS	0.72	0.74	0.85	0.67	0.90	-	-0.19	0.23	0.02	0.67	-0.04	0.10
IEI	-0.08	-0.13	-0.15	-0.10	-0.20	-0.19	-	0.64	0.80	0.05	0.18	0.56
LQD	0.32	0.34	0.28	0.29	0.20	0.23	0.64	-	0.69	0.63	0.00	0.68
MBB	0.14	0.10	0.06	0.10	0.02	0.02	0.80	0.69	-	0.27	0.19	0.53
HYG	0.63	0.68	0.65	0.60	0.62	0.67	0.05	0.63	0.27	-	-0.03	0.38
BIL	-0.02	-0.04	-0.02	-0.03	-0.06	-0.04	0.18	0.00	0.19	-0.03	-	0.06
BNDX	0.15	0.16	0.11	0.17	0.11	0.10	0.56	0.68	0.53	0.38	0.06	-

Asset	VUG	VEU	VTV	EEM	IJT	IJS	IEI	LQD	MBB	HYG	BIL	BNDX
VUG	-	0.67	0.84	0.66	0.81	0.75	0.02	0.32	0.18	0.61	0.02	0.21
VEU	0.67	-	0.71	0.70	0.62	0.65	-0.02	0.31	0.13	0.60	0.02	0.20
VTV	0.84	0.71	-	0.68	0.78	0.86	-0.03	0.29	0.13	0.64	0.02	0.17
EEM	0.66	0.70	0.68	-	0.64	0.64	0.02	0.28	0.15	0.54	0.03	0.19
IJT	0.81	0.62	0.78	0.64	-	0.91	-0.11	0.20	0.05	0.61	-0.04	0.14
IJS	0.75	0.65	0.86	0.64	0.91	-	-0.11	0.22	0.06	0.66	-0.02	0.13
IEI	0.02	-0.02	-0.03	0.02	-0.11	-0.11	-	0.73	0.83	0.13	0.24	0.67
LQD	0.32	0.31	0.29	0.28	0.20	0.22	0.73	-	0.74	0.59	0.09	0.74
MBB	0.18	0.13	0.13	0.15	0.05	0.06	0.83	0.74	-	0.30	0.27	0.63
HYG	0.61	0.60	0.64	0.54	0.61	0.66	0.13	0.59	0.30	-	0.01	0.39
BIL	0.02	0.02	0.02	0.03	-0.04	-0.02	0.24	0.09	0.27	0.01	-	0.15
BNDX	0.21	0.20	0.17	0.19	0.14	0.13	0.67	0.74	0.63	0.39	0.15	-

If you want to learn more about historical correlations, you can find out here how the main asset class are correlated to each other.

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Capital Growth as of May 31, 2023

An investment of 1000$, since June 1993, now would be worth 8013.36$, with a total return of 701.34% (7.18% annualized).

The Inflation Adjusted Capital now would be 3809.05$, with a net total return of 280.91% (4.56% annualized).

An investment of 1000$, since January 1985, now would be worth 26941.09$, with a total return of 2594.11% (8.95% annualized).

The Inflation Adjusted Capital now would be 9351.49$, with a net total return of 835.15% (5.99% annualized).

Drawdowns

A drawdown refers to the decline in value from a relative peak value to a relative trough. A maximum drawdown is the maximum observed loss from a peak to a trough of a portfolio before a new peak is attained.

MERRILL LYNCH EDGE SELECT MODERATE PORTFOLIO

Drawdown periods

Updated to May 2023

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	Drawdown period			Recovery period		Total
Drawdown	Start	Bottom	#Months	End	#Months	#Months
-29.58%	Nov 2007	Feb 2009	16	Apr 2010	14	30
-20.56%	Jan 2022	Sep 2022	9	in progress	8	17
-15.42%	Sep 2000	Sep 2002	25	Oct 2003	13	38
-10.96%	Feb 2020	Mar 2020	2	Jul 2020	4	6
-9.65%	May 2011	Sep 2011	5	Feb 2012	5	10
-7.97%	Jul 1998	Aug 1998	2	Nov 1998	3	5
-7.17%	Sep 2018	Dec 2018	4	Mar 2019	3	7
-6.44%	May 2015	Feb 2016	10	Jun 2016	4	14
-5.89%	May 2010	Jun 2010	2	Sep 2010	3	5
-5.84%	Feb 1994	Mar 1994	2	Mar 1995	12	14
-4.35%	Apr 2012	May 2012	2	Aug 2012	3	5
-4.08%	Aug 1997	Aug 1997	1	Jan 1998	5	6
-3.85%	Apr 2000	May 2000	2	Aug 2000	3	5
-3.52%	Feb 2018	Apr 2018	3	Aug 2018	4	7
-3.06%	May 2019	May 2019	1	Jun 2019	1	2
-3.02%	Jan 2000	Jan 2000	1	Mar 2000	2	3
-2.87%	Sep 2020	Oct 2020	2	Nov 2020	1	3
-2.82%	Apr 2004	Apr 2004	1	Sep 2004	5	6
-2.80%	May 2013	Jun 2013	2	Jul 2013	1	3
-2.75%	Sep 2021	Sep 2021	1	Oct 2021	1	2

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	Drawdown period			Recovery period		Total
Drawdown	Start	Bottom	#Months	End	#Months	#Months
-29.58%	Nov 2007	Feb 2009	16	Apr 2010	14	30
-20.56%	Jan 2022	Sep 2022	9	in progress	8	17
-15.42%	Sep 2000	Sep 2002	25	Oct 2003	13	38
-15.26%	Sep 1987	Nov 1987	3	Dec 1988	13	16
-10.96%	Feb 2020	Mar 2020	2	Jul 2020	4	6
-10.40%	Aug 1990	Sep 1990	2	Feb 1991	5	7
-9.65%	May 2011	Sep 2011	5	Feb 2012	5	10
-7.97%	Jul 1998	Aug 1998	2	Nov 1998	3	5
-7.17%	Sep 2018	Dec 2018	4	Mar 2019	3	7
-6.44%	May 2015	Feb 2016	10	Jun 2016	4	14
-6.36%	Jan 1990	Apr 1990	4	Jun 1990	2	6
-5.89%	May 2010	Jun 2010	2	Sep 2010	3	5
-5.84%	Feb 1994	Mar 1994	2	Mar 1995	12	14
-4.43%	Sep 1986	Sep 1986	1	Jan 1987	4	5
-4.35%	Apr 2012	May 2012	2	Aug 2012	3	5
-4.08%	Aug 1997	Aug 1997	1	Jan 1998	5	6
-3.85%	Apr 2000	May 2000	2	Aug 2000	3	5
-3.52%	Feb 2018	Apr 2018	3	Aug 2018	4	7
-3.06%	May 2019	May 2019	1	Jun 2019	1	2
-3.02%	Jan 2000	Jan 2000	1	Mar 2000	2	3

Rolling Returns ( more details)

A rolling return is a measure of investment performance that calculates the return of an investment over a set period of time, with the starting date rolling forward. This approach can provide a more accurate representation of the investment's historical performance and helps investors to evaluate the investment's consistency over time.

MERRILL LYNCH EDGE SELECT MODERATE PORTFOLIO

Annualized Rolling Returns

Data Source: from January 1985 to May 2023

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Rolling Period	Annualized Return (%)				Negative Periods
Rolling Period	Average	Latest	Best	Worst	Negative Periods
1 Year	9.23	0.22	37.72 May 1985 - Apr 1986	-25.06 Mar 2008 - Feb 2009	17.11%
2 Years	8.94	-3.66	28.32 Apr 1985 - Mar 1987	-11.86 Mar 2007 - Feb 2009	10.73%
3 Years	8.77	4.42	18.77 Mar 1985 - Feb 1988	-5.06 Mar 2006 - Feb 2009	5.16%
5 Years	8.62	4.87	18.35 Jan 1985 - Dec 1989	0.08 Mar 2004 - Feb 2009	0.00%
7 Years	8.53	6.15	16.68 Jan 1985 - Dec 1991	2.57 Mar 2002 - Feb 2009	0.00%
10 Years	8.39	5.89	13.92 Oct 1985 - Sep 1995	2.74 Mar 1999 - Feb 2009	0.00%
15 Years	8.00	5.84	14.23 Jan 1985 - Dec 1999	4.97 Oct 2007 - Sep 2022	0.00%
20 Years	7.98	6.85	11.57 Jan 1985 - Dec 2004	5.44 Apr 2000 - Mar 2020	0.00%
30 Years	8.41	7.18	9.98 Jan 1985 - Dec 2014	7.15 Oct 1992 - Sep 2022	0.00%

Annualized rolling and average returns over full calendar month periods

If you need a deeper detail about rolling returns, please refer to the Merrill Lynch Edge Select Moderate Portfolio: Rolling Returns page.

Previous vs subsequent Returns

Considering all 10-year rolling periods, is there a relationship between past and future returns, at a given date?

In the following chart, we show how past returns (x-axis) and subsequent returns (y-axis) are related.

Neighboring data is aggregated and occurrences are indicated. It is possible to zoom by clicking or drawing the desired area

MERRILL LYNCH EDGE SELECT MODERATE PORTFOLIO

Previous vs Next Returns - 10 Years annualized

Updated to May 2023

The annualized return of the last 10 years has been 5.89% (updated at May 31, 2023).

Seasonality

In which months is it better to invest in Merrill Lynch Edge Select Moderate Portfolio?

Both the Average Return and the Gain Frequency (Win %) are useful to get an idea of what happened in the past.

For further information about the seasonality, check the Asset Class Seasonality page.

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	Monthly Average Return (%) and Gain Frequency
Return (%)	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec
Average Gain Frequency	1.53 60%	-1.25 40%	-0.49 60%	1.12 80%	0.21 60%	0.49 60%	2.33 100%	0.35 60%	-2.15 20%	0.29 60%	2.87 80%	0.10 60%
Capital Growth on monthly avg returns
100	101.53	100.27	99.78	100.89	101.10	101.60	103.97	104.33	102.08	102.37	105.31	105.42
Best	5.9 2023	1.4 2019	3.1 2023	6.4 2020	3.1 2020	4.4 2019	5.1 2022	3.1 2020	0.9 2019	2.9 2021	6.8 2020	2.8 2020
Worst	-3.5 2022	-3.3 2020	-7.9 2020	-6.2 2022	-3.1 2019	-5.1 2022	0.3 2019	-3.7 2022	-7.0 2022	-4.8 2018	-1.1 2021	-3.5 2018

Monthly Seasonality over the period Jun 2018 - May 2023

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	Monthly Average Return (%) and Gain Frequency
Return (%)	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec
Average Gain Frequency	0.79 60%	-0.15 50%	0.17 60%	0.92 80%	0.55 70%	0.14 60%	1.87 90%	-0.06 60%	-0.95 40%	0.98 70%	1.73 70%	0.15 60%
Capital Growth on monthly avg returns
100	100.79	100.64	100.81	101.74	102.30	102.44	104.36	104.30	103.31	104.32	106.13	106.28
Best	5.9 2023	2.9 2014	4.8 2016	6.4 2020	3.1 2020	4.4 2019	5.1 2022	3.1 2020	3.3 2013	4.1 2015	6.8 2020	2.8 2020
Worst	-3.5 2022	-3.3 2020	-7.9 2020	-6.2 2022	-3.1 2019	-5.1 2022	-1.0 2014	-3.8 2015	-7.0 2022	-4.8 2018	-1.1 2021	-3.5 2018

Monthly Seasonality over the period Jun 2013 - May 2023

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	Monthly Average Return (%) and Gain Frequency
Return (%)	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec
Average Gain Frequency	0.99 67%	0.48 56%	0.63 69%	1.20 77%	0.82 67%	0.43 66%	1.14 66%	0.13 66%	-0.24 53%	0.73 66%	1.17 66%	1.53 79%
Capital Growth on monthly avg returns
100	100.99	101.48	102.12	103.35	104.20	104.65	105.84	105.98	105.72	106.49	107.73	109.38
Best	7.5 1987	6.4 1986	5.6 1986	6.9 2009	6.6 1990	4.4 2019	6.0 2009	4.9 1986	5.3 2010	6.5 2011	6.8 2020	8.6 1991
Worst	-5.4 2009	-6.0 2009	-7.9 2020	-6.2 2022	-4.7 2010	-5.1 2022	-3.8 2002	-7.8 1998	-7.0 2022	-11.1 1987	-3.2 2000	-3.5 2018

Monthly Seasonality over the period Jan 1985 - May 2023

Monthly/Yearly Returns

Merrill Lynch Edge Select Moderate Portfolio data source starts from January 1985: let's focus on monthly and yearly returns.

We are providing two different views:

Histogram: it shows the distribution of the returns recorded so far
Plain Table: it shows the detailed monthly and yearly returns

MONTHLY RETURNS HISTOGRAM

Jan 1985 - May 2023

306 Positive Months (66%) - 155 Negative Months (34%)

MONTHLY RETURNS TABLE

Jan 1985 - May 2023

(Scroll down to see all data)

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	Yearly Return(%)		Monthly Return(%)
Year	Total	Infl.Adj	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec
2023	+6.13	+3.83	5.9	-3.0	3.1	0.8	-0.5
2022	-16.06	-21.15	-3.5	-2.1	-0.4	-6.2	0.7	-5.1	5.1	-3.7	-7.0	2.8	6.0	-3.0
2021	+9.66	+2.45	-0.1	0.8	1.2	2.5	0.8	1.3	0.5	1.3	-2.8	2.9	-1.1	2.0
2020	+13.88	+12.35	0.1	-3.3	-7.9	6.4	3.1	2.1	3.7	3.1	-1.8	-1.1	6.8	2.8
2019	+19.44	+16.77	5.4	1.4	1.6	2.1	-3.1	4.4	0.3	-0.2	0.9	1.6	1.6	2.1
2018	-4.47	-6.27	2.6	-2.7	-0.5	-0.3	1.1	-0.2	1.9	1.1	-0.1	-4.8	1.1	-3.5
2017	+15.00	+12.63	1.7	1.9	0.7	1.2	1.4	0.3	1.8	0.6	1.0	1.3	1.0	1.1
2016	+7.31	+5.13	-2.5	0.0	4.8	0.7	0.3	1.1	2.5	0.2	0.5	-1.5	0.0	1.2
2015	-1.02	-1.73	0.0	2.7	-1.0	1.4	-0.1	-1.6	0.7	-3.8	-1.4	4.1	-0.3	-1.6
2014	+6.15	+5.36	-1.7	2.9	0.1	0.6	1.8	1.2	-1.0	2.4	-2.2	1.6	1.1	-0.8
2013	+12.89	+11.22	1.9	0.4	1.5	1.7	-0.7	-2.1	3.1	-1.7	3.3	2.8	1.2	1.1
2012	+11.74	+9.82	3.8	2.7	0.6	-0.1	-4.2	2.7	1.1	1.5	1.8	-0.5	0.7	1.4
2011	+1.36	-1.56	0.8	1.7	0.4	2.7	-0.4	-1.0	-0.3	-3.3	-5.0	6.5	-1.0	0.7
2010	+11.88	+10.24	-1.9	1.7	3.5	1.1	-4.7	-1.2	4.9	-1.6	5.3	2.3	-0.9	3.4
2009	+21.52	+18.30	-5.4	-6.0	5.1	6.9	4.9	0.2	6.0	1.7	3.6	-1.5	3.9	1.0
2008	-18.62	-18.69	-2.8	-0.6	-0.3	2.8	0.5	-4.4	-0.8	-0.1	-7.0	-10.0	-1.9	5.1
2007	+8.20	+3.96	0.8	0.0	0.9	2.4	1.6	-0.6	-1.3	1.2	3.3	2.4	-2.1	-0.6
2006	+12.10	+9.32	2.7	-0.1	0.8	1.3	-2.5	0.0	0.6	2.0	1.2	2.5	2.2	0.8
2005	+6.80	+3.28	-0.8	1.6	-1.9	-0.6	2.1	1.0	1.9	0.6	0.9	-1.9	2.3	1.4
2004	+10.27	+6.79	1.5	1.5	0.0	-2.8	0.4	1.4	-1.6	1.3	1.4	1.6	2.7	2.5
2003	+21.24	+19.00	-1.5	-0.3	0.1	5.0	4.0	1.2	0.0	1.9	1.2	3.3	1.0	3.8
2002	-5.21	-7.41	-0.4	-0.1	1.7	-0.9	0.1	-3.1	-3.8	1.2	-4.0	3.0	2.5	-1.2
2001	-2.83	-4.32	2.8	-4.3	-3.5	3.7	0.2	-1.1	0.2	-1.7	-4.2	2.4	2.5	0.5
2000	-1.46	-4.68	-3.0	1.1	3.7	-2.4	-1.5	3.1	-1.1	3.1	-2.4	-0.7	-3.2	2.1
1999	+14.10	+11.12	1.5	-2.4	2.9	2.9	-2.1	3.0	-1.1	-0.4	-0.3	2.9	2.1	4.5
1998	+14.87	+13.05	1.1	4.0	2.5	0.6	-1.3	1.4	-0.2	-7.8	3.6	4.2	3.4	2.9
1997	+14.53	+12.61	2.2	0.7	-2.3	2.6	4.0	3.1	4.2	-4.1	3.7	-2.7	1.5	1.2
1996	+10.99	+7.42	1.9	-0.3	0.3	1.1	0.8	0.6	-2.4	1.0	3.2	1.5	4.1	-1.2
1995	+22.46	+19.43	0.6	1.9	2.0	2.4	3.3	1.1	2.1	0.2	2.2	0.0	2.7	1.9
1994	-0.46	-3.05	3.3	-2.2	-3.7	0.7	0.6	-0.7	2.0	2.4	-1.9	1.2	-2.6	0.7
1993	+17.25	+14.12	1.8	1.6	2.9	0.9	1.4	1.1	1.1	3.1	-0.6	2.1	-2.2	3.1
1992	+4.97	+2.01	-1.0	0.3	-1.9	1.1	2.8	-1.4	2.3	0.1	0.4	-0.8	1.8	1.3
1991	+28.12	+24.31	2.9	5.4	0.9	1.1	2.5	-3.0	3.1	2.6	1.4	2.0	-2.1	8.6
1990	-1.02	-6.72	-4.1	-0.4	-0.3	-1.6	6.6	1.0	1.3	-6.5	-4.2	2.9	2.8	2.2
1989	+23.35	+17.87	3.8	-0.4	0.3	3.4	2.8	0.5	5.5	0.5	1.6	-0.8	2.0	2.2
1988	+14.65	+9.80	4.5	3.6	-0.9	0.3	-0.7	3.4	-0.5	-1.9	3.1	2.4	-0.3	1.0
1987	+4.00	-0.42	7.5	2.9	0.9	-0.3	-0.4	1.9	2.2	2.8	-2.2	-11.1	-2.5	3.5
1986	+21.58	+20.26	0.8	6.4	5.6	1.0	0.6	3.1	-1.2	4.9	-4.4	1.4	2.1	-0.2
1985	+29.83	+25.08	5.9	0.1	0.8	0.8	5.8	1.5	-0.2	0.7	-1.4	3.4	5.2	4.1

Portofolio Returns, up to December 2013, are simulated. They have been calculated using the historical series of equivalent ETFs / Assets, instead of the actual ETFs of the portfolio.

In particular, it has been used:

VUG - Vanguard Growth: simulated historical serie, up to December 2004
VEU - Vanguard FTSE All-World ex-US: simulated historical serie, up to December 2007

VTV - Vanguard Value: simulated historical serie, up to December 2004
EEM - iShares MSCI Emerging Markets: simulated historical serie, up to December 2003
IJT - iShares S&P Small-Cap 600 Growth: simulated historical serie, up to December 2000

IJS - iShares S&P Small-Cap 600 Value: simulated historical serie, up to December 2000
IEI - iShares 3-7 Year Treasury Bond: simulated historical serie, up to December 2007
LQD - iShares Investment Grade Corporate Bond: simulated historical serie, up to December 2002

MBB - iShares MBS: simulated historical serie, up to December 2007
HYG - iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corporate Bond: simulated historical serie, up to December 2007
BIL - SPDR Blmbg Barclays 1-3 Mth T-Bill: simulated historical serie, up to December 2007

BNDX - Vanguard Total International Bond: simulated historical serie, up to December 2013

Portfolio efficiency

Compared to the Merrill Lynch Edge Select Moderate Portfolio, the following portfolios granted a higher return over 30 Years and a less severe drawdown at the same time.

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		30 Years Stats (%)			% Allocation
Portfolio	Author	Return▾	Dev.Std	Drawdown	Stocks	Bonds	Comm
Couch Potato	Scott Burns	+7.88	8.66	-27.04	50	50	0
Stocks/Bonds 40/60 Momentum		+7.77	6.87	-21.11	40	60	0
Golden Butterfly	Tyler	+7.52	7.52	-17.79	40	40	20
Marc Faber Portfolio	Marc Faber	+7.20	9.54	-28.82	50	25	25
All Weather Portfolio	Ray Dalio	+7.19	7.21	-20.19	30	55	15
Edge Select Moderate	Merrill Lynch	+7.18	8.84	-29.58	53	47	0

Here's a list containing the Best Classic Portfolios, with the highest returns over 30 Years and High Risk categorization.

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		30 Years Stats (%)			% Allocation
Portfolio	Author	Return▾	Dev.Std	Drawdown	Stocks	Bonds	Comm
Stocks/Bonds 60/40 Momentum		+9.28	9.43	-32.52	60	40	0
Simple Path to Wealth	JL Collins	+8.66	11.60	-38.53	75	25	0
Late Sixties and Beyond	Burton Malkiel	+8.19	11.57	-41.80	71	29	0
Yale Endowment	David Swensen	+8.06	10.83	-39.48	70	30	0
Talmud Portfolio	Roger Gibson	+8.00	10.64	-40.17	66.7	33.3	0