Fulvio Marchese In Saecula Saeculorum Portfolio: ETF allocation and returns

Data Source: from January 1871 to May 2024 (~153 years)
Consolidated Returns as of 31 May 2024
Live Update: Jun 21 2024
Currency: USD
PORTFOLIO • LIVE PERFORMANCE (USD currency)
0.21%
1 Day
Jun 21 2024
2.01%
Current Month
June 2024

The Fulvio Marchese In Saecula Saeculorum Portfolio can be implemented with 5 ETFs. This portfolio has a high risk, indicating it can undergo considerable value changes. It is appropriate for investors with a high risk tolerance who are aiming for higher returns and can handle notable drawdowns.

The asset allocation is the following: 45% on the Stock Market, 45% on Fixed Income, 10% on Commodities. In general, bonds are useful for mitigating overall portfolio risk, especially if they are issued by national entities or highly reliable companies. This portfolio has a 45% allocation to bonds, leading to its classification as high risk.

In the last 30 Years, the Fulvio Marchese In Saecula Saeculorum Portfolio obtained a 7.92% compound annual return, with a 7.84% standard deviation. It suffered a maximum drawdown of -20.39% that required 25 months to be recovered.

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About the Author: Fulvio Marchese

Fulvio Marchese

I am Italian, living in Sanremo, Italy, near Monaco-Montecarlo. In 2023, I completed 50 years of work for a major Italian bank. Throughout my career, I assisted both institutional investors and individuals in building wealth through a life-strategy perspective, employing Strategic and Tactical Asset Allocation with modern 'liability-driven' Risk Management protocols, grounded in methodology and rules.

"Uncompromising quality" has been the guiding principle, where I consistently paired experience and innovation in the financial field.

Through my finance career, I've learned that long-term success is achieved by avoiding mistakes rather than attempting to predict market trends, approaching tasks with the tranquility of doing things well consistently.

Today, I offer my expertise to those in need. I am passionate about planning, organizing, and guiding important life decisions for individuals, extending beyond merely economic and financial aspects. As a 'life coach,' I help individuals grow and enhance their qualities in their professional, social, and economic lives, steering them towards the best path.

I enjoy sharing these topics on LinkedIn and Facebook and have initiated a Financial e-Learning Group on Telegram.
https://www.linkedin.com/in/fulviomarchese

'If we only walk on sunny days, we will never reach our destination.' (Paulo Coelho)

Portfolio Overview

Why Title an Asset Allocation "Saecula Saeculorum"?
Because it can be a choice based on various considerations, including aesthetics, inspiration, or symbolic meaning. "Saecula Saeculorum" is a Latin expression meaning "in the centuries of the centuries" or "forever." The use of such a significant term reflects the intention to create a long-term investment portfolio that can endure through generations.

As for the specific composition of the portfolio, each asset represents a different element and can play a specific role in risk management and achieving financial goals.

Total US Stock Market (45%): Represents a significant portion of US stocks, providing diversification within the stock market.

US Intermediate-Term Bond (20%): Intermediate-term bonds can provide stability and more predictable income flows compared to stocks. They may be considered less risky than stocks but still offer higher returns than short-term bonds.

US Investment Grade Corporate Bond (15%): Investment-grade corporate bonds are issued by companies with good financial strength, offering a balance between yield and risk.

US 1-3 Year Treasury Short-Term Bond (10%): Short-term US Treasury bonds are generally considered safer, being issued by the US government. They can be used for short-term stability and liquidity.

US Gold Trust Commodity (10%): Gold is often seen as a safe-haven asset in times of economic uncertainty. The allocation in gold can serve as diversification and protection against inflation.

The selection of these components depends on the investor's preferences, time horizon, risk tolerance, and financial goals. Titling the asset allocation with a symbolic term like 'In Saecula Saeculorum' may reflect the desire to build a robust and enduring portfolio over time.

Asset Allocation and ETFs

The Fulvio Marchese In Saecula Saeculorum Portfolio has the following asset allocation:

45% Stocks
45% Fixed Income
10% Commodities

The Fulvio Marchese In Saecula Saeculorum Portfolio can be implemented with the following ETFs:

Weight
(%)
ETF
Ticker
ETF
Currency
ETF Name Investment Themes (Orig.Currency)
45.00
VTI
USD Vanguard Total Stock Market Equity, U.S., Large Cap (USD)
20.00
IEF
USD iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond Bond, U.S., Intermediate-Term (USD)
15.00
LQD
USD iShares Investment Grade Corporate Bond Bond, U.S., All-Term (USD)
10.00
SHY
USD iShares 1-3 Year Treasury Bond Bond, U.S., Short Term (USD)
10.00
GLD
USD SPDR Gold Trust Commodity, Gold (USD)

Most of Lazy Portfolios are made of common components (asset classes), very simple and well defined. For a more complete view, find out the most common ETFs you can use to build your portfolio.

Portfolio and ETF Returns as of May 31, 2024

The Fulvio Marchese In Saecula Saeculorum Portfolio guaranteed the following returns.

Returns are calculated in USD, assuming: June 2024 return is calculated on the hypothesis of a newly built portfolio, with the starting asset allocation.
FULVIO MARCHESE IN SAECULA SAECULORUM PORTFOLIO
Consolidated returns as of 31 May 2024
Live Update: Jun 21 2024
Swipe left to see all data
  Chg (%) Return (%) Return (%) as of May 31, 2024
  1 Day Time ET(*) Jun 2024 1M 6M 1Y 5Y 10Y 30Y MAX
(~153Y)
Fulvio Marchese In Saecula Saeculorum Portfolio -0.21 2.01 3.11 9.45 14.51 8.03 6.77 7.92 6.98
US Inflation Adjusted return 3.10 7.63 10.91 3.70 3.83 5.25 4.75
Components
VTI
USD Vanguard Total Stock Market -0.15 Jun 21 2024 3.02 4.76 16.01 27.64 14.92 12.05 10.44 9.15
IEF
USD iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond 0.02 Jun 21 2024 1.97 1.80 1.01 -2.30 -1.38 0.76 4.86 4.51
LQD
USD iShares Investment Grade Corporate Bond 0.03 Jun 21 2024 1.54 2.21 2.83 3.72 0.75 2.19 5.26 4.62
SHY
USD iShares 1-3 Year Treasury Bond 0.04 Jun 21 2024 0.53 0.72 1.66 3.21 0.85 0.91 3.09 4.42
GLD
USD SPDR Gold Trust -1.55 Jun 21 2024 -0.24 1.62 14.07 18.09 11.79 5.98 5.86 3.00
Returns over 1 year are annualized | Available data source: since Jan 1871
(*) Eastern Time (ET - America/New York)
US Inflation is updated to May 2024. Current inflation (annualized) is 1Y: 3.25% , 5Y: 4.17% , 10Y: 2.83% , 30Y: 2.54%
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In 2023, the Fulvio Marchese In Saecula Saeculorum Portfolio granted a 2.35% dividend yield. If you are interested in getting periodic income, please refer to the Fulvio Marchese In Saecula Saeculorum Portfolio: Dividend Yield page.

Capital Growth as of May 31, 2024

An investment of 1$, since June 1994, now would be worth 9.85$, with a total return of 884.74% (7.92% annualized).

The Inflation Adjusted Capital now would be 4.64$, with a net total return of 363.72% (5.25% annualized).
An investment of 1$, since January 1871, now would be worth 31141.11$, with a total return of 3114010.81% (6.98% annualized).

The Inflation Adjusted Capital now would be 1240.62$, with a net total return of 123962.46% (4.75% annualized).

Portfolio Metrics as of May 31, 2024

Metrics of Fulvio Marchese In Saecula Saeculorum Portfolio, updated as of 31 May 2024, provide a comprehensive overview of the portfolio's performance and risk characteristics.

These metrics include detailed data on returns, volatility, drawdowns and other key performance indicators. By examining them, you can gain insights into how the portfolio has performed over various time periods and understand its risk profile.

Metrics are calculated based on monthly returns, assuming:
FULVIO MARCHESE IN SAECULA SAECULORUM PORTFOLIO
Advanced Metrics
Data Source: 1 January 1871 - 31 May 2024 (~153 years)
Swipe left to see all data
Metrics as of May 31, 2024
1M 3M 6M 1Y 3Y 5Y 10Y 20Y 30Y MAX
(~153Y)
Investment Return (%) 3.11 2.96 9.45 14.51 2.96 8.03 6.77 7.40 7.92 6.98
Infl. Adjusted Return (%)
3.10 2.24 7.63 10.91 -2.20 3.70 3.83 4.70 5.25 4.75
US Inflation (%) 0.01 0.70 1.69 3.25 5.28 4.17 2.83 2.58 2.54 2.12
Returns / Inflation rates over 1 year are annualized.
DRAWDOWN
Inflation Adjusted:
Inflation Adjusted:
1Y 3Y 5Y 10Y 20Y 30Y MAX
Deepest Drawdown Depth (%) -6.33 -18.89 -18.89 -18.89 -20.39 -20.39 -50.22
Start to Recovery (# months)
5 26 26 26 25 25 75
Start (yyyy mm) 2023 08 2022 01 2022 01 2022 01 2007 11 2007 11 1929 09
Start to Bottom (# months) 3 9 9 9 16 16 33
Bottom (yyyy mm) 2023 10 2022 09 2022 09 2022 09 2009 02 2009 02 1932 05
Bottom to End (# months) 2 17 17 17 9 9 42
End (yyyy mm) 2023 12 2024 02 2024 02 2024 02 2009 11 2009 11 1935 11
Longest Drawdown Depth (%)
same

same

same

same
-18.89 -10.13
same
Start to Recovery (# months)
26 33
Start (yyyy mm) 2023 08 2022 01 2022 01 2022 01 2022 01 2000 09 1929 09
Start to Bottom (# months) 3 9 9 9 9 25 33
Bottom (yyyy mm) 2023 10 2022 09 2022 09 2022 09 2022 09 2002 09 1932 05
Bottom to End (# months) 2 17 17 17 17 8 42
End (yyyy mm) 2023 12 2024 02 2024 02 2024 02 2024 02 2003 05 1935 11
Longest negative period (# months)
5 30 34 34 43 43 105
Period Start (yyyy mm) 2023 06 2021 06 2021 01 2021 01 2005 08 2005 08 1929 09
Period End (yyyy mm) 2023 10 2023 11 2023 10 2023 10 2009 02 2009 02 1938 05
Annualized Return (%) -4.66 -0.11 -0.96 -0.96 -0.07 -0.07 -0.10
Deepest Drawdown Depth (%) -7.21 -24.07 -24.07 -24.07 -24.07 -24.07 -45.23
Start to Recovery (# months)
5 33* 33* 33* 33* 33* 108
Start (yyyy mm) 2023 08 2021 09 2021 09 2021 09 2021 09 2021 09 1916 01
Start to Bottom (# months) 3 13 13 13 13 13 54
Bottom (yyyy mm) 2023 10 2022 09 2022 09 2022 09 2022 09 2022 09 1920 06
Bottom to End (# months) 2 20 20 20 20 20 54
End (yyyy mm) 2023 12 - - - - - 1924 12
Longest Drawdown Depth (%)
same

same

same

same

same
-14.15
same
Start to Recovery (# months)
39
Start (yyyy mm) 2023 08 2021 09 2021 09 2021 09 2021 09 2000 09 1916 01
Start to Bottom (# months) 3 13 13 13 13 25 54
Bottom (yyyy mm) 2023 10 2022 09 2022 09 2022 09 2022 09 2002 09 1920 06
Bottom to End (# months) 2 20 20 20 20 14 54
End (yyyy mm) 2023 12 - - - - 2003 11 1924 12
Longest negative period (# months)
5 36* 52 56 57 102 281
Period Start (yyyy mm) 2023 06 2021 06 2019 07 2018 02 2004 06 2000 09 1897 08
Period End (yyyy mm) 2023 10 2024 05 2023 10 2022 09 2009 02 2009 02 1920 12
Annualized Return (%) -7.73 -2.20 -0.07 -0.10 -0.54 -0.11 -0.10
Drawdowns / Negative periods marked with * are in progress
RISK INDICATORS
1Y 3Y 5Y 10Y 20Y 30Y MAX
Standard Deviation (%) 10.18 11.35 10.68 8.56 8.03 7.84 8.08
Sharpe Ratio 0.90 0.01 0.57 0.64 0.75 0.72 0.37
Sortino Ratio 1.24 0.02 0.76 0.86 0.99 0.95 0.52
Ulcer Index 2.43 8.72 6.91 5.06 4.80 4.44 6.48
Ratio: Return / Standard Deviation 1.43 0.26 0.75 0.79 0.92 1.01 0.86
Ratio: Return / Deepest Drawdown 2.29 0.16 0.42 0.36 0.36 0.39 0.14
Positive Months (%)
66.66 55.55 63.33 62.50 65.00 66.11 63.38
Positive Months 8 20 38 75 156 238 1167
Negative Months 4 16 22 45 84 122 674
LONG TERM RETURNS
Inflation Adjusted:
Inflation Adjusted:
1Y 3Y 5Y 10Y 20Y 30Y MAX
Best 10 Years Return (%) - Annualized 6.77 9.79 9.79 14.72
Worst 10 Years Return (%) - Annualized 5.69 3.51 1.33
Best 10 Years Return (%) - Annualized 3.83 7.89 7.89 12.54
Worst 10 Years Return (%) - Annualized 2.88 0.90 -4.38
TIMEFRAMES
Inflation Adjusted:
Inflation Adjusted:
1M 3M 6M 1Y 3Y 5Y 10Y 20Y 30Y MAX
··· Over the latest 30Y
Best Rolling Return (%) - Annualized 28.46 17.66 15.10 9.79 8.72 7.92
Worst Rolling Return (%) - Annualized -19.20 -2.08 1.50 3.51 6.19
Positive Periods (%) 85.6 97.8 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0
Best Rolling Return (%) - Annualized 25.75 14.91 12.43 7.89 6.26 5.25
Worst Rolling Return (%) - Annualized -21.54 -4.43 -1.12 0.90 3.95
Positive Periods (%) 80.2 85.5 99.0 100.0 100.0 100.0
95% VaR - Value at Risk (%) - Cumulative
3.06 4.46 5.14 7.29 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
95% CVaR - Conditional Value at Risk (%) 4.00 6.09 7.44 13.24 0.74 0.00 0.00 0.00
99% VaR - Value at Risk (%) - Cumulative
4.60 7.13 8.92 15.56 3.38 0.00 0.00 0.00
99% CVaR - Conditional Value at Risk (%) 5.58 8.83 11.33 18.28 5.99 0.00 0.00 0.00
Short term VaRs: analytical | 1+ year VaRs: historical data
Safe Withdrawal Rate (%) 86.37 29.81 19.16 10.46 6.55 7.24
Perpetual Withdrawal Rate (%) --- --- --- 0.96 3.57 5.68
% based on initial capital, inflation-adj. monthly withdrawals afterwards | Credits: BestRetirementPortfolio.com
··· All available data (Jan 1871 - May 2024)
Best Rolling Return (%) - Annualized 66.16 22.64 20.52 14.72 12.81 11.71
Worst Rolling Return (%) - Annualized -35.20 -18.75 -5.87 1.33 3.15 3.44
Positive Periods (%) 79.5 94.4 97.1 100.0 100.0 100.0
Best Rolling Return (%) - Annualized 77.93 21.23 17.88 12.54 8.42 7.31
Worst Rolling Return (%) - Annualized -28.06 -12.96 -10.26 -4.38 -1.08 1.00
Positive Periods (%) 70.8 83.6 89.1 93.6 98.3 100.0
95% VaR - Value at Risk (%) - Cumulative
3.24 4.87 5.85 7.26 0.51 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
95% CVaR - Conditional Value at Risk (%) 4.21 6.55 8.22 13.22 11.18 3.55 0.00 0.00 0.00
99% VaR - Value at Risk (%) - Cumulative
4.83 7.62 9.74 16.08 26.37 10.18 0.00 0.00 0.00
99% CVaR - Conditional Value at Risk (%) 5.84 9.37 12.22 22.67 44.17 19.47 0.00 0.00 0.00
Short term VaRs: analytical | 1+ year VaRs: historical data
Safe Withdrawal Rate (%) 83.62 25.67 14.28 7.77 4.69 3.71
Perpetual Withdrawal Rate (%) --- --- --- --- --- 1.41
% based on initial capital, inflation-adj. monthly withdrawals afterwards | Credits: BestRetirementPortfolio.com
Terms and Definitions
  • Annualized Portfolio Return: it's the annualized geometric mean return of the portfolio.
  • Deepest/Longest Drawdown: a drawdown refers to the decline in value from a relative peak value to a relative trough. The deepest (or maximum) drawdown is the maximum observed loss from a peak to a trough of a portfolio before a new peak is attained. The longest drawdown is the period observed from a peak to the subsequent peak with the greatest duration.
  • Longest negative period: it's the maximum period for which an overall negative return has been observed.
  • Standard Deviation: it's a measure of the dispersion of returns around the mean.
  • Sharpe Ratio: it's a measure of risk-adjusted performance of the portfolio. It's calculated by dividing the excess return of the portfolio over the risk-free rate by the portfolio standard deviation. The risk-free rate here considered is the 1-3 Mth T-Bill return.
  • Sortino Ratio: another measure of risk-adjusted performance of the portfolio. It's a modification of the Sharpe Ratio (same formula but the denominator is the portfolio downside standard deviation).
  • Ulcer Index: it's a measure of downside risk that quantifies the depth and duration of drawdowns in an investment portfolio.
  • Best/Worst 10Y returns: the best and the worst 10-year return over a time frame.
  • Rolling Returns: N-year returns over a time frame, calculated over all the available data source (best, worst, % of positive returns). Each rolling period, longer than the longest negative period, yielded a non-negative minimum return.
  • Value at Risk (VaR): it's an evaluation of a cumulative worst-case loss (in absolute value), associated with a probability (95%-99%) and a time horizon. For short term, it's calculated based on the expected return and standard deviation, assuming a normal distribution of monthly returns. For long term is retrieved by the historical rolling return data.
  • Conditional Value at Risk (CVaR): it represents the average expected loss if that worst-case threshold (95%-99%) is ever crossed.
  • Safe Withdrawal Rate (SWR): it's the percentage of the initial portfolio balance that can be withdrawn at the beginning of each month with inflation adjustment, without the portfolio running out of money in any case (money amount withdrawal).
    For instance: Your initial invested capital is 100.000$; withdrawal rate (annualized) is 4%. This means that, in the first month, you will withdraw 100.000 * 4% * 1/12 = 333.33$. The second month, you’ll withdraw 333.33$ plus the inflation monthly rate. You’ll continue adjusting your withdraw monthly for inflation.
  • Perpetual Withdrawal Rate (PWR): it's the percentage of the initial portfolio balance that can be withdrawn at the beginning of each month with inflation adjustment, preserving the original invested capital, adjusted for inflation too.

Portfolio Components Correlation

Correlation measures to what degree the returns of two assets move in relation to each other. It is a statistical measure that describes the extent to which the returns of one asset are related to the returns of another asset.

COMPONENTS MONTHLY CORRELATIONS
Monthly correlations as of 31 May 2024
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Terms and Definitions
Correlation values range between -1 and +1
  • A correlation of +1 indicates that the returns of the two assets move in perfect synchrony; when one asset's returns go up, the other asset's returns also go up by the same percentage, and vice versa. This perfect positive correlation implies that the assets perform similarly in different market conditions.
  • A correlation of -1 indicates a perfect inverse relationship between the returns of the two assets. When one asset's returns go up, the other asset's returns go down by the same percentage. This perfect negative correlation suggests that the assets move in opposite directions, providing a diversification benefit by reducing overall portfolio risk.
  • A correlation of 0 means that there is no linear relationship between the returns of the two assets. The returns of one asset do not predict the returns of the other.
Learn about historical correlations here: see how the main asset classes relate to each other.

Drawdowns

A drawdown refers to the decline in value from a relative peak value to a relative trough. A maximum drawdown is the maximum observed loss from a peak to a trough of a portfolio before a new peak is attained.

FULVIO MARCHESE IN SAECULA SAECULORUM PORTFOLIO
Drawdown periods
Drawdown periods - Inflation Adjusted
Data Source: 1 June 1994 - 31 May 2024 (30 Years)
Data Source: 1 January 1871 - 31 May 2024 (~153 years)
Inflation Adjusted:
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Rolling Returns

( more details)

A rolling return is a measure of investment performance that calculates the return of an investment over a set period of time, with the starting date rolling forward. This approach can provide a more accurate representation of the investment's historical performance and helps investors to evaluate the investment's consistency over time.

FULVIO MARCHESE IN SAECULA SAECULORUM PORTFOLIO
Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Returns - Inflation Adjusted
Data Source: 1 June 1994 - 31 May 2024 (30 Years)
Data Source: 1 January 1871 - 31 May 2024 (~153 years)
Inflation Adjusted:

If you need a deeper detail about rolling returns, please refer to the Fulvio Marchese In Saecula Saeculorum Portfolio: Rolling Returns page.

Seasonality

In which months is it better to invest in Fulvio Marchese In Saecula Saeculorum Portfolio?

Both the Average Return and the Gain Frequency (Win %) are useful to get an idea of what happened in the past.
For further information about the seasonality, check the Asset Class Seasonality page.
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Monthly Returns

This section provides a visual/tabular representation of the performance variability in the Fulvio Marchese In Saecula Saeculorum Portfolio over time. It illustrates the distribution of monthly returns, showcasing the range and frequency of positive and negative returns.

FULVIO MARCHESE IN SAECULA SAECULORUM PORTFOLIO
Monthly Returns Distribution
Data Source: 1 June 1994 - 31 May 2024 (30 Years)
Data Source: 1 January 1871 - 31 May 2024 (~153 years)
238 Positive Months (66%) - 122 Negative Months (34%)
1167 Positive Months (63%) - 674 Negative Months (37%)
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(Scroll down to see all data)
Investment Returns, up to December 2004, have been derived using the historical series of equivalent ETFs / Assets, instead of the actual ETFs of the portfolio.
You can find additional information on extended Data Sources here.

In particular, the series derived from equivalent datasets are:
  • Vanguard Total Stock Market (VTI), up to December 2001
  • iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond (IEF), up to December 2002
  • iShares Investment Grade Corporate Bond (LQD), up to December 2002
  • iShares 1-3 Year Treasury Bond (SHY), up to December 2002
  • SPDR Gold Trust (GLD), up to December 2004

Portfolio efficiency

The following portfolios granted a higher return over 30 Years and a less severe drawdown at the same time.

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In the following table, you can compare the current portfolio with a list of famous portfolios. Metrics are calculated over the last 30 Years.

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