Fulvio Marchese In Saecula Saeculorum To EUR Hedged Portfolio: ETF allocation and returns

Data Source: from January 1950 to April 2024 (~74 years)
Consolidated Returns as of 30 April 2024
Currency: EUR

This asset allocation page contains ETF(s) that are not available in our database in the destination currency (EUR).
We retained the original tickers and calculated returns using historical exchange rates or interest rate differentials in case currency hedging.

It's on you to opt for ETFs that mirror the same benchmark in the destination currency (EUR). The actual returns would be comparable, but they can fluctuate due to variations in sampling methodologies, annual fees, and the specific timing of exchange rate we use for month-end calculations. It is possible that you do not have access to ETFs in currency (hedged or not) that are similar to the original ones.

The Fulvio Marchese In Saecula Saeculorum To EUR Hedged Portfolio is a High Risk portfolio and can be implemented with 5 ETFs.

It's exposed for 45% on the Stock Market and for 10% on Commodities.

In the last 30 Years, the Fulvio Marchese In Saecula Saeculorum To EUR Hedged Portfolio obtained a 7.17% compound annual return, with a 7.82% standard deviation.

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About the Author

I am Italian, living in Sanremo, Italy, near Monaco-Montecarlo. In 2023, I completed 50 years of work for a major Italian bank. Throughout my career, I assisted both institutional investors and individuals in building wealth through a life-strategy perspective, employing Strategic and Tactical Asset Allocation with modern 'liability-driven' Risk Management protocols, grounded in methodology and rules.

"Uncompromising quality" has been the guiding principle, where I consistently paired experience and innovation in the financial field.

Through my finance career, I've learned that long-term success is achieved by avoiding mistakes rather than attempting to predict market trends, approaching tasks with the tranquility of doing things well consistently.

Today, I offer my expertise to those in need. I am passionate about planning, organizing, and guiding important life decisions for individuals, extending beyond merely economic and financial aspects. As a 'life coach,' I help individuals grow and enhance their qualities in their professional, social, and economic lives, steering them towards the best path.

I enjoy sharing these topics on LinkedIn and Facebook and have initiated a Financial e-Learning Group on Telegram.
https://www.linkedin.com/in/fulviomarchese

'If we only walk on sunny days, we will never reach our destination.' (Paulo Coelho)

Portfolio Overview

Why Title an Asset Allocation "Saecula Saeculorum"?
Because it can be a choice based on various considerations, including aesthetics, inspiration, or symbolic meaning. "Saecula Saeculorum" is a Latin expression meaning "in the centuries of the centuries" or "forever." The use of such a significant term reflects the intention to create a long-term investment portfolio that can endure through generations.

As for the specific composition of the portfolio, each asset represents a different element and can play a specific role in risk management and achieving financial goals.

Total US Stock Market (45%): Represents a significant portion of US stocks, providing diversification within the stock market.

US Intermediate-Term Bond (20%): Intermediate-term bonds can provide stability and more predictable income flows compared to stocks. They may be considered less risky than stocks but still offer higher returns than short-term bonds.

US Investment Grade Corporate Bond (15%): Investment-grade corporate bonds are issued by companies with good financial strength, offering a balance between yield and risk.

US 1-3 Year Treasury Short-Term Bond (10%): Short-term US Treasury bonds are generally considered safer, being issued by the US government. They can be used for short-term stability and liquidity.

US Gold Trust Commodity (10%): Gold is often seen as a safe-haven asset in times of economic uncertainty. The allocation in gold can serve as diversification and protection against inflation.

The selection of these components depends on the investor's preferences, time horizon, risk tolerance, and financial goals. Titling the asset allocation with a symbolic term like 'In Saecula Saeculorum' may reflect the desire to build a robust and enduring portfolio over time.

Asset Allocation and ETFs

The Fulvio Marchese In Saecula Saeculorum To EUR Hedged Portfolio has the following asset allocation:

45% Stocks
45% Fixed Income
10% Commodities

The Fulvio Marchese In Saecula Saeculorum To EUR Hedged Portfolio can be implemented with the following ETFs:

Weight
(%)
Investment Themes (Orig.Currency) ETF
Ticker
ETF
Currency
ETF Name
45.00 Equity, U.S., Large Cap (USD)
VTI
→EUR
Hedged
Vanguard Total Stock Market
20.00 Bond, U.S., Intermediate-Term (USD)
IEF
→EUR
Hedged
iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond
15.00 Bond, U.S., All-Term (USD)
LQD
→EUR
Hedged
iShares Investment Grade Corporate Bond
10.00 Bond, U.S., Short Term (USD)
SHY
→EUR
Hedged
iShares 1-3 Year Treasury Bond
10.00 Commodity, Gold (USD)
GLD
→EUR
Hedged
SPDR Gold Trust
The corresponding ETF in the destination currency is not present in our database. Returns are retrieved from the original ETF, applying currency exchange rates or hedging costs when applicable.

Most of Lazy Portfolios are made of common components (asset classes), very simple and well defined. For a more complete view, find out the most common ETFs you can use to build your portfolio.

Portfolio and ETF Returns as of Apr 30, 2024

The Fulvio Marchese In Saecula Saeculorum To EUR Hedged Portfolio guaranteed the following returns.

Returns are calculated in EUR, assuming:
  • no fees or capital gain taxes.
  • a rebalancing of the components at every January 1st. How do returns change with different rebalancing strategies?
  • the currency hedging (simulation taking into account the interest rate differentials of the countries). It is also assumed that hedged instruments have an additional expense ratio of 0.25% (yearly), compared to the US original instrument.
  • the actual Euro Inflation rates.
FULVIO MARCHESE IN SAECULA SAECULORUM TO EUR HEDGED PORTFOLIO
Consolidated returns as of 30 April 2024
Swipe left to see all data
  Chg (%) Return (%) Return (%) as of Apr 30, 2024
  1 Day Time ET(*) May 2024 1M 6M 1Y 5Y 10Y 30Y MAX
(~74Y)
Fulvio Marchese In Saecula Saeculorum To EUR Hedged Portfolio n.a. n.a. -2.93 12.42 8.87 5.55 5.26 7.17 8.28
Euro Inflation Adjusted return -3.49 11.08 6.34 1.78 2.89 5.00 5.48
Components
VTI
→EUR
Hedged
Vanguard Total Stock Market n.a. - n.a. -4.44 20.01 20.35 10.87 10.36 9.62 10.94
IEF
→EUR
Hedged
iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond n.a. - n.a. -3.22 3.11 -6.64 -2.37 -0.46 4.15 4.98
LQD
→EUR
Hedged
iShares Investment Grade Corporate Bond n.a. - n.a. -3.34 7.55 -1.62 -0.62 0.87 4.53 5.24
SHY
→EUR
Hedged
iShares 1-3 Year Treasury Bond n.a. - n.a. -0.54 1.38 0.76 -0.41 -0.37 2.44 4.52
GLD
→EUR
Hedged
SPDR Gold Trust n.a. - n.a. 2.89 14.40 13.16 10.42 4.20 5.26 5.11
The corresponding ETF in the destination currency is not present in our database. Returns are retrieved from the original ETF, applying currency exchange rates or hedging costs when applicable.
Returns over 1 year are annualized | Available data source: since Jan 1950
(*) Eastern Time (ET - America/New York)
Euro Inflation is updated to Apr 2024. Current inflation (annualized) is 1Y: 2.38% , 5Y: 3.70% , 10Y: 2.30% , 30Y: 2.07%

Capital Growth as of Apr 30, 2024

An investment of 1€, since May 1994, now would be worth 7.98€, with a total return of 698.36% (7.17% annualized).

The Inflation Adjusted Capital now would be 4.32€, with a net total return of 331.99% (5.00% annualized).
An investment of 1€, since January 1950, now would be worth 369.95€, with a total return of 36895.44% (8.28% annualized).

The Inflation Adjusted Capital now would be 52.67€, with a net total return of 5166.60% (5.48% annualized).

Portfolio Metrics as of Apr 30, 2024

Metrics of Fulvio Marchese In Saecula Saeculorum To EUR Hedged Portfolio, updated as of 30 April 2024.

Metrics are calculated based on monthly returns, assuming:
  • no fees or capital gain taxes.
  • a rebalancing of the components at every January 1st. How do returns change with different rebalancing strategies?
  • the currency hedging (simulation taking into account the interest rate differentials of the countries). It is also assumed that hedged instruments have an additional expense ratio of 0.25% (yearly), compared to the US original instrument.
  • the actual Euro Inflation rates.
FULVIO MARCHESE IN SAECULA SAECULORUM TO EUR HEDGED PORTFOLIO
Advanced Metrics
Data Source: 1 January 1950 - 30 April 2024 (~74 years)
Swipe left to see all data
Metrics as of Apr 30, 2024
1M 3M 6M 1Y 3Y 5Y 10Y 20Y 30Y MAX
(~74Y)
Investment Return (%) -2.93 1.09 12.42 8.87 0.94 5.55 5.26 6.54 7.17 8.28
Infl. Adjusted Return (%) details -3.49 -0.88 11.08 6.34 -4.38 1.78 2.89 4.34 5.00 5.48
Euro Inflation (%) 0.58 1.98 1.21 2.38 5.57 3.70 2.30 2.11 2.07 2.66
Returns / Inflation rates over 1 year are annualized.
DRAWDOWN
Inflation Adjusted:
Inflation Adjusted:
1Y 3Y 5Y 10Y 20Y 30Y MAX
Deepest Drawdown Depth (%) -6.63 -19.73 -19.73 -19.73 -19.73 -19.73 -19.73
Start to Recovery (# months) details 5 28* 28* 28* 28* 28* 28*
Start (yyyy mm) 2023 08 2022 01 2022 01 2022 01 2022 01 2022 01 2022 01
Start to Bottom (# months) 3 9 9 9 9 9 9
Bottom (yyyy mm) 2023 10 2022 09 2022 09 2022 09 2022 09 2022 09 2022 09
Bottom to End (# months) 2 19 19 19 19 19 19
End (yyyy mm) 2023 12 - - - - - -
Longest Drawdown Depth (%)
same as
deepest

same as
deepest

same as
deepest

same as
deepest

same as
deepest
-9.82 -9.82
Start to Recovery (# months) details 33 33
Start (yyyy mm) 2023 08 2022 01 2022 01 2022 01 2022 01 2000 09 2000 09
Start to Bottom (# months) 3 9 9 9 9 23 23
Bottom (yyyy mm) 2023 10 2022 09 2022 09 2022 09 2022 09 2002 07 2002 07
Bottom to End (# months) 2 19 19 19 19 10 10
End (yyyy mm) 2023 12 - - - - 2003 05 2003 05
Longest negative period (# months) details 6 33* 38 38 50 50 53
Period Start (yyyy mm) 2023 05 2021 08 2020 09 2020 09 2005 01 2005 01 1966 02
Period End (yyyy mm) 2023 10 2024 04 2023 10 2023 10 2009 02 2009 02 1970 06
Annualized Return (%) -6.22 -0.28 -0.56 -0.56 -0.30 -0.30 -0.05
Drawdowns / Negative periods marked with * are in progress
Deepest Drawdown Depth (%) -7.51 -26.21 -26.21 -26.21 -26.21 -26.21 -26.21
Start to Recovery (# months) details 5 32* 32* 32* 32* 32* 32*
Start (yyyy mm) 2023 08 2021 09 2021 09 2021 09 2021 09 2021 09 2021 09
Start to Bottom (# months) 3 13 13 13 13 13 13
Bottom (yyyy mm) 2023 10 2022 09 2022 09 2022 09 2022 09 2022 09 2022 09
Bottom to End (# months) 2 19 19 19 19 19 19
End (yyyy mm) 2023 12 - - - - - -
Longest Drawdown Depth (%)
same as
deepest

same as
deepest

same as
deepest

same as
deepest

same as
deepest
-13.82 -24.24
Start to Recovery (# months) details 38 48
Start (yyyy mm) 2023 08 2021 09 2021 09 2021 09 2021 09 2000 09 1973 01
Start to Bottom (# months) 3 13 13 13 13 25 21
Bottom (yyyy mm) 2023 10 2022 09 2022 09 2022 09 2022 09 2002 09 1974 09
Bottom to End (# months) 2 19 19 19 19 13 27
End (yyyy mm) 2023 12 - - - - 2003 10 1976 12
Longest negative period (# months) details 6 36* 54 71 71 71 126
Period Start (yyyy mm) 2023 05 2021 05 2019 05 2017 12 2017 12 2017 12 1972 01
Period End (yyyy mm) 2023 10 2024 04 2023 10 2023 10 2023 10 2023 10 1982 06
Annualized Return (%) -8.35 -4.38 -0.38 -0.01 -0.01 -0.01 -0.12
Drawdowns / Negative periods marked with * are in progress
RISK INDICATORS
1Y 3Y 5Y 10Y 20Y 30Y MAX
Standard Deviation (%) 10.04 11.21 10.69 8.51 7.99 7.82 7.96
Sharpe Ratio 0.36 -0.15 0.34 0.47 0.65 0.63 0.54
Sortino Ratio 0.52 -0.21 0.46 0.64 0.86 0.83 0.73
Ulcer Index 2.54 9.77 7.73 5.67 4.95 4.56 4.36
Ratio: Return / Standard Deviation 0.88 0.08 0.52 0.62 0.82 0.92 1.04
Ratio: Return / Deepest Drawdown 1.34 0.05 0.28 0.27 0.33 0.36 0.42
% Positive Months details 58% 55% 60% 61% 64% 65% 64%
Positive Months 7 20 36 74 155 237 578
Negative Months 5 16 24 46 85 123 314
LONG TERM RETURNS
Inflation Adjusted:
Inflation Adjusted:
1Y 3Y 5Y 10Y 20Y 30Y MAX
Best 10 Years Return (%) - Annualized 5.26 9.41 9.41 13.05
Worst 10 Years Return (%) - Annualized 4.51 2.98 2.98
Best 10 Years Return (%) - Annualized 2.89 8.06 8.06 10.17
Worst 10 Years Return (%) - Annualized 2.22 0.86 -0.65
ROLLING PERIODS
Inflation Adjusted:
Inflation Adjusted:
1Y 3Y 5Y 10Y 20Y 30Y MAX
Over the latest 30Y
Best Rolling Return (%) - Annualized 29.17 18.36 14.64 9.41 8.34 7.17
Worst Rolling Return (%) - Annualized -17.74 -2.31 0.87 2.98 5.76
% Positive Periods 84% 96% 100% 100% 100% 100%
SWR - Safe Withdrawal Rate (%) - 100% Success - Annualized 84.29 29.43 19.17 10.52 6.63 7.26
PWR - Perpetual Withdrawal Rate (%) - 100% Success - Annualized - - - 0.91 3.61 5.58
WR calculated based on initial capital | Monthly withdrawals adjusted for inflation | Credits: BestRetirementPortfolio.com
Best Rolling Return (%) - Annualized 28.08 16.04 12.71 8.06 6.38 5.00
Worst Rolling Return (%) - Annualized -24.52 -4.99 -1.24 0.86 3.93
% Positive Periods 80% 85% 98% 100% 100% 100%
SWR - Safe Withdrawal Rate (%) - 100% Success - Annualized 84.29 29.43 19.17 10.52 6.63 7.26
PWR - Perpetual Withdrawal Rate (%) - 100% Success - Annualized - - - 0.91 3.61 5.58
WR calculated based on initial capital | Monthly withdrawals adjusted for inflation | Credits: BestRetirementPortfolio.com
Over all the available data source (Jan 1950 - Apr 2024)
Best Rolling Return (%) - Annualized 43.57 20.24 17.21 13.05 11.18 10.21
Worst Rolling Return (%) - Annualized -17.74 -2.31 0.83 2.98 5.73 6.68
% Positive Periods 84% 97% 100% 100% 100% 100%
SWR - Safe Withdrawal Rate (%) - 100% Success - Annualized 84.29 29.43 18.68 9.89 5.74 4.78
PWR - Perpetual Withdrawal Rate (%) - 100% Success - Annualized - - - - 1.72 3.30
WR calculated based on initial capital | Monthly withdrawals adjusted for inflation | Credits: BestRetirementPortfolio.com
Best Rolling Return (%) - Annualized 39.90 19.15 15.50 10.17 8.36 7.38
Worst Rolling Return (%) - Annualized -24.52 -5.91 -1.73 -0.65 1.60 3.73
% Positive Periods 78% 87% 96% 99% 100% 100%
SWR - Safe Withdrawal Rate (%) - 100% Success - Annualized 84.29 29.43 18.68 9.89 5.74 4.78
PWR - Perpetual Withdrawal Rate (%) - 100% Success - Annualized - - - - 1.72 3.30
WR calculated based on initial capital | Monthly withdrawals adjusted for inflation | Credits: BestRetirementPortfolio.com
Terms and Definitions
  • Annualized Portfolio Return: it's the annualized geometric mean return of the portfolio.
  • Deepest/Longest Drawdown: a drawdown refers to the decline in value from a relative peak value to a relative trough. The deepest (or maximum) drawdown is the maximum observed loss from a peak to a trough of a portfolio before a new peak is attained. The longest drawdown is the period observed from a peak to the subsequent peak with the greatest duration.
  • Longest negative period: it's the maximum period for which an overall negative return has been observed.
  • Standard Deviation: it's a measure of the dispersion of returns around the mean.
  • Sharpe Ratio: it's a measure of risk-adjusted performance of the portfolio. It's calculated by dividing the excess return of the portfolio over the risk-free rate by the portfolio standard deviation. The risk-free rate here considered is the 1-3 Mth T-Bill return.
  • Sortino Ratio: another measure of risk-adjusted performance of the portfolio. It's a modification of the Sharpe Ratio (same formula but the denominator is the portfolio downside standard deviation).
  • Ulcer Index: it's a measure of downside risk that quantifies the depth and duration of drawdowns in an investment portfolio.
  • Best/Worst 10Y returns: the best and the worst 10-year return over a time frame.
  • Rolling Returns: N-year returns over a time frame, calculated over all the available data source (best, worst, % of positive returns). Each rolling period, longer than the longest negative period, yielded a non-negative minimum return.
  • Safe Withdrawal Rate (SWR): it's the percentage of the initial portfolio balance that can be withdrawn at the beginning of each month with inflation adjustment, without the portfolio running out of money in any case (money amount withdrawal).
    For instance: Your initial invested capital is 100.000$; withdrawal rate (annualized) is 4%. This means that, in the first month, you will withdraw 100.000 * 4% * 1/12 = 333.33$. The second month, you’ll withdraw 333.33$ plus the inflation monthly rate. You’ll continue adjusting your withdraw monthly for inflation.
  • Perpetual Withdrawal Rate (PWR): it's the percentage of the initial portfolio balance that can be withdrawn at the beginning of each month with inflation adjustment, preserving the original invested capital, adjusted for inflation too.

Portfolio Components Correlation

Correlation measures to what degree the returns of the two assets move in relation to each other.

Correlation coefficient is a numerical value between -1 and +1. If one variable goes up by a certain amount, the correlation coefficient indicates which way the other variable moves and by how much.
Asset correlations are calculated based on monthly returns.
COMPONENTS MONTHLY CORRELATIONS
Monthly correlations as of 30 April 2024
Swipe left to see all data

If you want to learn more about historical correlations, you can find out here how the main asset class are correlated to each other.

Drawdowns

A drawdown refers to the decline in value from a relative peak value to a relative trough. A maximum drawdown is the maximum observed loss from a peak to a trough of a portfolio before a new peak is attained.

FULVIO MARCHESE IN SAECULA SAECULORUM TO EUR HEDGED PORTFOLIO
Drawdown periods
Drawdown periods - Inflation Adjusted
Data Source: 1 May 1994 - 30 April 2024 (30 Years)
Data Source: 1 January 1950 - 30 April 2024 (~74 years)
Inflation Adjusted:
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Rolling Returns

( more details)

A rolling return is a measure of investment performance that calculates the return of an investment over a set period of time, with the starting date rolling forward. This approach can provide a more accurate representation of the investment's historical performance and helps investors to evaluate the investment's consistency over time.

FULVIO MARCHESE IN SAECULA SAECULORUM TO EUR HEDGED PORTFOLIO
Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Returns - Inflation Adjusted
Data Source: 1 May 1994 - 30 April 2024 (30 Years)
Data Source: 1 January 1950 - 30 April 2024 (~74 years)
Inflation Adjusted:

If you need a deeper detail about rolling returns, please refer to the Fulvio Marchese In Saecula Saeculorum To EUR Hedged Portfolio: Rolling Returns page.

Seasonality

In which months is it better to invest in Fulvio Marchese In Saecula Saeculorum To EUR Hedged Portfolio?

Both the Average Return and the Gain Frequency (Win %) are useful to get an idea of what happened in the past.
For further information about the seasonality, check the Asset Class Seasonality page.
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Monthly Returns

This section provides a visual/tabular representation of the performance variability in the Fulvio Marchese In Saecula Saeculorum To EUR Hedged Portfolio over time. It illustrates the distribution of monthly returns, showcasing the range and frequency of positive and negative returns.

FULVIO MARCHESE IN SAECULA SAECULORUM TO EUR HEDGED PORTFOLIO
Monthly Returns Distribution
Data Source: 1 May 1994 - 30 April 2024 (30 Years)
Data Source: 1 January 1950 - 30 April 2024 (~74 years)
237 Positive Months (66%) - 123 Negative Months (34%)
578 Positive Months (65%) - 314 Negative Months (35%)
Swipe left to see all data
(Scroll down to see all data)
Investment Returns, up to December 2004, have been derived using the historical series of equivalent ETFs / Assets, instead of the actual ETFs of the portfolio.
You can find additional information on extended Data Sources here.

Hedged returns are calculated taking into account the interest rate differentials of the countries. It is assumed that hedged instruments have an additional expense ratio of 0.25% (yearly).

In particular, the series derived from equivalent datasets are:
  • VTI - Vanguard Total Stock Market (VTI) to EUR Hedged, up to December 2001
  • IEF - iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond (IEF) to EUR Hedged, up to December 2002
  • LQD - iShares Investment Grade Corporate Bond (LQD) to EUR Hedged, up to December 2002
  • SHY - iShares 1-3 Year Treasury Bond (SHY) to EUR Hedged, up to December 2002
  • GLD - SPDR Gold Trust (GLD) to EUR Hedged, up to December 2004
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