Fulvio Marchese In Saecula Saeculorum To EUR Hedged Portfolio: Rolling Returns

Simulation Settings
Period: January 1950 - June 2025 (~76 years)
Initial Amount: 1€
Rebalancing: at every Jan 1st
Currency: EUR
Inflation: Eurozone
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This asset allocation includes ETFs not denominated in EUR. Returns are calculated using exchange rates or, if applicable, interest rate differentials for currency hedging.

When holding the Fulvio Marchese In Saecula Saeculorum To EUR Hedged Portfolio, how long should you stay invested to have high probability to achieve a positive return?

Over the selected period (~76 years), the longest duration with a negative return was 53 months (from February 1966 to June 1970).

This indicates that, within the same timeframe, any rolling period of 54 months or more has consistently resulted in a positive return.

Understanding this metric is crucial as it highlights the importance of a safe investment horizon. Knowing the minimum duration required to likely see positive returns helps investors set realistic expectations and reinforces the strategy of staying invested through market cycles. This approach can mitigate the emotional reactions to short-term market fluctuations and enhance the likelihood of achieving financial goals.

Previous vs subsequent Returns

Is there a correlation between past and future returns over all 10-year rolling periods?

The following chart illustrates the relationship between past returns (x-axis) and subsequent returns (y-axis).

Data points are aggregated to show occurrences, and you can zoom in by clicking or drawing over the desired area.

FULVIO MARCHESE IN SAECULA SAECULORUM TO EUR HEDGED PORTFOLIO
Previous vs Next Returns - 10 Years annualized
Time Period: 1 July 1995 - 30 June 2025 (30 Years)
Time Period: 1 January 1950 - 30 June 2025 (~76 years)
30 Years
(1995/07 - 2025/06)
All Data
(1950/01 - 2025/06)

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As of Jun 30, 2025, the annualized return of the previous 10 years has been 6.40%.

Rolling Returns

A rolling return is a measure of investment performance that calculates the return of an investment over a set period of time, with the starting date rolling forward. This approach can provide a more accurate representation of the investment's historical performance and helps investors to evaluate the investment's consistency over time.

FULVIO MARCHESE IN SAECULA SAECULORUM TO EUR HEDGED PORTFOLIO
Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Returns - Inflation Adjusted
Time Period: 1 July 1995 - 30 June 2025 (30 Years)
Time Period: 1 January 1950 - 30 June 2025 (~76 years)
30 Years
(1995/07 - 2025/06)
All Data
(1950/01 - 2025/06)
Eurozone Inflation Adjusted:

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Rolling Period Analysis

By selecting the 'Rolling Period', the chart and data will update. To study a different date range, change the simulation settings.

FULVIO MARCHESE IN SAECULA SAECULORUM TO EUR HEDGED PORTFOLIO
Rolling Returns Chart
Rolling Returns Chart - Inflation Adjusted
Time Period: 1 January 1950 - 30 June 2025 (~76 years)
Over Time
Histogram
Eurozone Inflation Adjusted:

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Swipe left to see all data
Worst Median Best Negative Periods
-17.74%
Mar 2008 - Feb 2009
+8.64% +43.57%
Jul 1982 - Jun 1983
15.20%
136 out of 895
-24.52%
Nov 2021 - Oct 2022
+6.51% +39.90%
Jul 1982 - Jun 1983
21.45%
192 out of 895
-7.38%
Jul 1968 - Jun 1970
+8.38% +23.58%
Jul 1984 - Jun 1986
8.04%
71 out of 883
-12.56%
Nov 2021 - Oct 2023
+5.76% +22.34%
Jul 1984 - Jun 1986
15.29%
135 out of 883
-2.31%
Mar 2006 - Feb 2009
+8.12% +20.24%
Nov 1990 - Oct 1993
2.18%
19 out of 871
-5.91%
Oct 1971 - Sep 1974
+5.58% +19.15%
Aug 1984 - Jul 1987
12.97%
113 out of 871
-0.20%
Mar 2005 - Feb 2009
+7.71% +18.71%
Jul 1982 - Jun 1986
0.12%
1 out of 859
-2.38%
Aug 1978 - Jul 1982
+5.22% +16.55%
Jul 1982 - Jun 1986
6.64%
57 out of 859
+0.83%
Jun 1965 - May 1970
+7.87% +17.21%
Aug 1982 - Jul 1987
0.00%
0 out of 847
-1.73%
Jul 1977 - Jun 1982
+5.37% +15.50%
Aug 1982 - Jul 1987
3.54%
30 out of 847
+1.78%
Jul 1964 - Jun 1970
+7.91% +15.01%
Nov 1990 - Oct 1996
0.00%
0 out of 835
-3.00%
Oct 1968 - Sep 1974
+5.27% +12.70%
Aug 1950 - Jul 1956
2.04%
17 out of 835
+2.88%
Oct 1967 - Sep 1974
+7.72% +15.19%
Oct 1990 - Sep 1997
0.00%
0 out of 823
-1.67%
Oct 1967 - Sep 1974
+5.31% +12.01%
Oct 1990 - Sep 1997
1.34%
11 out of 823
+3.18%
Nov 2000 - Oct 2008
+7.72% +14.40%
Nov 1990 - Oct 1998
0.00%
0 out of 811
-0.18%
Oct 1973 - Sep 1981
+5.45% +11.58%
Nov 1990 - Oct 1998
0.12%
1 out of 811
+2.50%
Mar 2000 - Feb 2009
+7.82% +13.70%
Nov 1990 - Oct 1999
0.00%
0 out of 799
-0.64%
Jul 1973 - Jun 1982
+5.62% +11.04%
Nov 1990 - Oct 1999
0.88%
7 out of 799
+2.98%
Mar 1999 - Feb 2009
+7.84% +13.05%
Jan 1989 - Dec 1998
0.00%
0 out of 787
-0.65%
Jul 1972 - Jun 1982
+5.59% +10.17%
Aug 1982 - Jul 1992
0.64%
5 out of 787
+3.41%
Mar 1998 - Feb 2009
+7.90% +13.20%
Jul 1982 - Jun 1993
0.00%
0 out of 775
+0.35%
Apr 1971 - Mar 1982
+5.54% +10.58%
Jul 1982 - Jun 1993
0.00%
0 out of 775
+4.49%
Mar 1997 - Feb 2009
+7.82% +12.51%
Jun 1984 - May 1996
0.00%
0 out of 763
+1.13%
Jun 1972 - May 1984
+5.48% +9.87%
Oct 1985 - Sep 1997
0.00%
0 out of 763
+4.66%
Oct 1961 - Sep 1974
+7.83% +12.94%
Aug 1984 - Jul 1997
0.00%
0 out of 751
+0.41%
Oct 1968 - Sep 1981
+5.45% +10.38%
Aug 1984 - Jul 1997
0.00%
0 out of 751
+5.14%
Jul 1968 - Jun 1982
+7.80% +12.77%
Jul 1984 - Jun 1998
0.00%
0 out of 739
+0.25%
Jul 1968 - Jun 1982
+5.32% +10.31%
Jul 1984 - Jun 1998
0.00%
0 out of 739
+5.44%
Aug 1967 - Jul 1982
+7.73% +12.95%
Aug 1982 - Jul 1997
0.00%
0 out of 727
+0.77%
Aug 1967 - Jul 1982
+5.27% +10.36%
Aug 1982 - Jul 1997
0.00%
0 out of 727
+5.57%
Oct 1965 - Sep 1981
+7.68% +12.93%
Jul 1982 - Jun 1998
0.00%
0 out of 715
+1.15%
Oct 1965 - Sep 1981
+5.28% +10.40%
Jul 1982 - Jun 1998
0.00%
0 out of 715
+5.49%
Jul 1965 - Jun 1982
+7.64% +12.58%
Jul 1982 - Jun 1999
0.00%
0 out of 703
+1.05%
Jul 1965 - Jun 1982
+5.29% +10.14%
Jul 1982 - Jun 1999
0.00%
0 out of 703
+5.48%
Jul 1964 - Jun 1982
+7.92% +12.20%
Apr 1982 - Mar 2000
0.00%
0 out of 691
+1.07%
Jul 1964 - Jun 1982
+5.39% +9.72%
Jul 1982 - Jun 2000
0.00%
0 out of 691
+5.72%
Jan 2000 - Dec 2018
+8.06% +11.52%
Oct 1981 - Sep 2000
0.00%
0 out of 679
+1.45%
Jul 1963 - Jun 1982
+5.45% +8.96%
Oct 1981 - Sep 2000
0.00%
0 out of 679
+5.73%
Apr 1962 - Mar 1982
+8.16% +11.18%
Apr 1980 - Mar 2000
0.00%
0 out of 667
+1.60%
Apr 1962 - Mar 1982
+5.38% +8.36%
Apr 1980 - Mar 2000
0.00%
0 out of 667
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