Rebalancing: at every Jan 1st
Currency: EUR
When holding the Gyroscopic Investing Desert Portfolio To EUR, how long should you stay invested to have high probability to achieve a positive return?
Over the selected period (~71 years), the longest duration with a negative return was 109 months (from November 2000 to November 2009).
This indicates that, within the same timeframe, any rolling period of 110 months or more has consistently resulted in a positive return.
Understanding this metric is crucial as it highlights the importance of a safe investment horizon. Knowing the minimum duration required to likely see positive returns helps investors set realistic expectations and reinforces the strategy of staying invested through market cycles. This approach can mitigate the emotional reactions to short-term market fluctuations and enhance the likelihood of achieving financial goals.
Gyroscopic Investing Desert Portfolio To EUR: ETF allocation and returns
Previous vs subsequent Returns
Is there a correlation between past and future returns over all 10-year rolling periods?
The following chart illustrates the relationship between past returns (x-axis) and subsequent returns (y-axis).
Data points are aggregated to show occurrences, and you can zoom in by clicking or drawing over the desired area.
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As of Sep 30, 2024, the annualized return of the previous 10 years has been 6.27%.
Rolling Returns
A rolling return is a measure of investment performance that calculates the return of an investment over a set period of time, with the starting date rolling forward. This approach can provide a more accurate representation of the investment's historical performance and helps investors to evaluate the investment's consistency over time.
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Rolling Period Analysis
By selecting the 'Rolling Period', the chart and data will update. To study a different date range, change the simulation settings.
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Worst | Median | Best | Negative Periods |
---|---|---|---|
-17.80%
Nov 1989 - Oct 1990 |
+7.34% |
+55.53%
Jun 1982 - May 1983 |
21.83%
184 out of 843 |
-21.36%
Nov 1989 - Oct 1990 |
+4.85% |
+50.45%
Jun 1982 - May 1983 |
30.49%
257 out of 843 |
-9.94%
Jun 2001 - May 2003 |
+7.07% |
+37.21%
Nov 1980 - Oct 1982 |
12.76%
106 out of 831 |
-11.65%
Jun 2001 - May 2003 |
+4.48% |
+32.30%
Feb 1982 - Jan 1984 |
23.47%
195 out of 831 |
-7.02%
Jan 1985 - Dec 1987 |
+6.35% |
+33.62%
Mar 1982 - Feb 1985 |
5.62%
46 out of 819 |
-8.53%
Mar 2002 - Feb 2005 |
+4.12% |
+29.63%
Mar 1982 - Feb 1985 |
19.66%
161 out of 819 |
-4.47%
Nov 2000 - Oct 2004 |
+6.41% |
+30.41%
Feb 1981 - Jan 1985 |
4.21%
34 out of 807 |
-6.56%
Nov 2000 - Oct 2004 |
+4.15% |
+25.56%
Feb 1981 - Jan 1985 |
14.13%
114 out of 807 |
-1.94%
Jun 2001 - May 2006 |
+6.50% |
+30.23%
Mar 1980 - Feb 1985 |
3.27%
26 out of 795 |
-4.02%
Jun 2001 - May 2006 |
+4.31% |
+25.09%
Mar 1980 - Feb 1985 |
12.33%
98 out of 795 |
-2.02%
Apr 2002 - Mar 2008 |
+6.74% |
+27.01%
Mar 1979 - Feb 1985 |
2.81%
22 out of 783 |
-4.24%
Apr 2002 - Mar 2008 |
+4.46% |
+21.65%
Mar 1979 - Feb 1985 |
10.09%
79 out of 783 |
-2.03%
Jul 2001 - Jun 2008 |
+6.59% |
+24.31%
Mar 1978 - Feb 1985 |
1.69%
13 out of 771 |
-4.30%
Jul 2001 - Jun 2008 |
+4.37% |
+19.32%
Mar 1978 - Feb 1985 |
9.21%
71 out of 771 |
-0.71%
Jun 2001 - May 2009 |
+6.51% |
+19.93%
Mar 1977 - Feb 1985 |
1.05%
8 out of 759 |
-2.73%
Sep 2000 - Aug 2008 |
+4.45% |
+15.60%
Dec 1978 - Nov 1986 |
6.85%
52 out of 759 |
-0.32%
Nov 2000 - Oct 2009 |
+6.67% |
+18.56%
Feb 1975 - Jan 1984 |
0.13%
1 out of 747 |
-2.33%
Nov 2000 - Oct 2009 |
+4.50% |
+13.91%
Mar 1976 - Feb 1985 |
6.16%
46 out of 747 |
+1.60%
Nov 2000 - Oct 2010 |
+6.79% |
+19.22%
Feb 1975 - Jan 1985 |
0.00%
0 out of 735 |
-0.94%
Dec 1968 - Nov 1978 |
+4.57% |
+14.49%
Feb 1975 - Jan 1985 |
3.27%
24 out of 735 |
+2.13%
Sep 2000 - Aug 2011 |
+6.69% |
+17.73%
Jul 1974 - Jun 1985 |
0.00%
0 out of 723 |
-0.21%
Feb 1964 - Jan 1975 |
+4.61% |
+13.05%
Jul 1974 - Jun 1985 |
0.83%
6 out of 723 |
+3.07%
Jul 2001 - Jun 2013 |
+6.75% |
+16.55%
Jul 1973 - Jun 1985 |
0.00%
0 out of 711 |
+0.13%
Feb 1963 - Jan 1975 |
+4.50% |
+11.68%
Jul 1973 - Jun 1985 |
0.00%
0 out of 711 |
+2.91%
Nov 2000 - Oct 2013 |
+6.87% |
+15.06%
Mar 1972 - Feb 1985 |
0.00%
0 out of 699 |
-0.04%
Jan 1962 - Dec 1974 |
+4.58% |
+10.41%
Aug 1974 - Jul 1987 |
0.14%
1 out of 699 |
+3.24%
Nov 2000 - Oct 2014 |
+7.01% |
+14.02%
Jul 1971 - Jun 1985 |
0.00%
0 out of 687 |
+0.19%
Feb 1961 - Jan 1975 |
+4.76% |
+10.53%
Aug 1979 - Jul 1993 |
0.00%
0 out of 687 |
+3.64%
Nov 2000 - Oct 2015 |
+7.17% |
+14.39%
Jun 1970 - May 1985 |
0.00%
0 out of 675 |
+0.69%
Dec 1963 - Nov 1978 |
+4.88% |
+10.62%
Dec 1978 - Nov 1993 |
0.00%
0 out of 675 |
+3.67%
Nov 2000 - Oct 2016 |
+7.32% |
+13.17%
Feb 1978 - Jan 1994 |
0.00%
0 out of 663 |
+0.76%
Jan 1959 - Dec 1974 |
+5.00% |
+9.73%
Feb 1978 - Jan 1994 |
0.00%
0 out of 663 |
+3.66%
Nov 2000 - Oct 2017 |
+7.41% |
+12.80%
Aug 1980 - Jul 1997 |
0.00%
0 out of 651 |
+0.68%
Dec 1961 - Nov 1978 |
+4.93% |
+9.77%
Aug 1980 - Jul 1997 |
0.00%
0 out of 651 |
+3.56%
Nov 2000 - Oct 2018 |
+7.30% |
+13.24%
Apr 1980 - Mar 1998 |
0.00%
0 out of 639 |
+0.99%
Dec 1960 - Nov 1978 |
+4.84% |
+10.22%
Apr 1980 - Mar 1998 |
0.00%
0 out of 639 |
+4.01%
Nov 2000 - Oct 2019 |
+7.39% |
+13.26%
Oct 1978 - Sep 1997 |
0.00%
0 out of 627 |
+1.24%
Dec 1959 - Nov 1978 |
+5.08% |
+10.01%
Apr 1980 - Mar 1999 |
0.00%
0 out of 627 |
+4.22%
Nov 2000 - Oct 2020 |
+7.38% |
+13.32%
Apr 1980 - Mar 2000 |
0.00%
0 out of 615 |
+1.42%
Jan 1959 - Dec 1978 |
+5.06% |
+10.44%
Apr 1980 - Mar 2000 |
0.00%
0 out of 615 |
Gyroscopic Investing Desert Portfolio To EUR: ETF allocation and returns