Gyroscopic Investing Desert Portfolio To EUR Hedged: Rolling Returns

Simulation Settings
Period: January 1950 - June 2025 (~76 years)
Initial Amount: 1€
Rebalancing: at every Jan 1st
Currency: EUR
Inflation: Eurozone
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When holding the Gyroscopic Investing Desert Portfolio To EUR Hedged, how long should you stay invested to have high probability to achieve a positive return?

Over the selected period (~76 years), the longest duration with a negative return was 41 months (from February 1967 to June 1970).

This indicates that, within the same timeframe, any rolling period of 42 months or more has consistently resulted in a positive return.

Understanding this metric is crucial as it highlights the importance of a safe investment horizon. Knowing the minimum duration required to likely see positive returns helps investors set realistic expectations and reinforces the strategy of staying invested through market cycles. This approach can mitigate the emotional reactions to short-term market fluctuations and enhance the likelihood of achieving financial goals.

Previous vs subsequent Returns

Is there a correlation between past and future returns over all 10-year rolling periods?

The following chart illustrates the relationship between past returns (x-axis) and subsequent returns (y-axis).

Data points are aggregated to show occurrences, and you can zoom in by clicking or drawing over the desired area.

GYROSCOPIC INVESTING DESERT PORTFOLIO TO EUR HEDGED
Previous vs Next Returns - 10 Years annualized
Time Period: 1 July 1995 - 30 June 2025 (30 Years)
Time Period: 1 January 1950 - 30 June 2025 (~76 years)
30 Years
(1995/07 - 2025/06)
All Data
(1950/01 - 2025/06)

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As of Jun 30, 2025, the annualized return of the previous 10 years has been 4.16%.

Rolling Returns

A rolling return is a measure of investment performance that calculates the return of an investment over a set period of time, with the starting date rolling forward. This approach can provide a more accurate representation of the investment's historical performance and helps investors to evaluate the investment's consistency over time.

GYROSCOPIC INVESTING DESERT PORTFOLIO TO EUR HEDGED
Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Returns - Inflation Adjusted
Time Period: 1 July 1995 - 30 June 2025 (30 Years)
Time Period: 1 January 1950 - 30 June 2025 (~76 years)
30 Years
(1995/07 - 2025/06)
All Data
(1950/01 - 2025/06)
Eurozone Inflation Adjusted:

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Rolling Period Analysis

By selecting the 'Rolling Period', the chart and data will update. To study a different date range, change the simulation settings.

GYROSCOPIC INVESTING DESERT PORTFOLIO TO EUR HEDGED
Rolling Returns Chart
Rolling Returns Chart - Inflation Adjusted
Time Period: 1 January 1950 - 30 June 2025 (~76 years)
Over Time
Histogram
Eurozone Inflation Adjusted:

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Swipe left to see all data
Worst Median Best Negative Periods
-14.03%
Nov 2021 - Oct 2022
+7.06% +35.39%
Jul 1982 - Jun 1983
10.73%
96 out of 895
-22.28%
Nov 2021 - Oct 2022
+4.69% +31.93%
Jul 1982 - Jun 1983
21.12%
189 out of 895
-6.04%
Nov 2021 - Oct 2023
+7.06% +20.81%
Jul 1984 - Jun 1986
4.76%
42 out of 883
-11.94%
Nov 2021 - Oct 2023
+4.49% +19.60%
Jul 1984 - Jun 1986
12.12%
107 out of 883
-1.51%
Jun 1967 - May 1970
+6.96% +18.80%
Nov 1990 - Oct 1993
1.61%
14 out of 871
-6.86%
Oct 2020 - Sep 2023
+4.40% +16.53%
Aug 1984 - Jul 1987
9.30%
81 out of 871
+0.53%
Jun 1966 - May 1970
+7.00% +16.31%
Jul 1982 - Jun 1986
0.00%
0 out of 859
-3.10%
Nov 2019 - Oct 2023
+4.28% +14.19%
Jul 1982 - Jun 1986
7.22%
62 out of 859
+0.65%
Jun 1965 - May 1970
+7.15% +14.96%
Jul 1982 - Jun 1987
0.00%
0 out of 847
-1.83%
Nov 2017 - Oct 2022
+4.29% +13.26%
Jul 1982 - Jun 1987
5.67%
48 out of 847
+1.59%
Jul 1964 - Jun 1970
+7.18% +13.48%
Nov 1990 - Oct 1996
0.00%
0 out of 835
-1.56%
Nov 2017 - Oct 2023
+4.36% +10.83%
Oct 1981 - Sep 1987
4.43%
37 out of 835
+2.11%
Oct 2016 - Sep 2023
+7.08% +13.27%
Oct 1990 - Sep 1997
0.00%
0 out of 823
-0.95%
Oct 2016 - Sep 2023
+4.50% +10.14%
Oct 1990 - Sep 1997
2.19%
18 out of 823
+2.14%
Mar 2015 - Feb 2023
+7.05% +12.76%
May 1990 - Apr 1998
0.00%
0 out of 811
-0.41%
Nov 2015 - Oct 2023
+4.77% +9.97%
Nov 1990 - Oct 1998
1.11%
9 out of 811
+2.29%
Nov 2014 - Oct 2023
+7.00% +12.38%
Aug 1984 - Jul 1993
0.00%
0 out of 799
-0.42%
Jul 1973 - Jun 1982
+4.66% +9.82%
Jul 1984 - Jun 1993
0.38%
3 out of 799
+2.51%
Nov 2013 - Oct 2023
+7.04% +11.75%
Jan 1989 - Dec 1998
0.00%
0 out of 787
-0.27%
Jul 1972 - Jun 1982
+4.61% +9.07%
Aug 1982 - Jul 1992
0.25%
2 out of 787
+2.82%
Oct 2012 - Sep 2023
+7.03% +12.29%
Jul 1982 - Jun 1993
0.00%
0 out of 775
+0.45%
Apr 1971 - Mar 1982
+4.65% +9.68%
Jul 1982 - Jun 1993
0.00%
0 out of 775
+3.12%
Nov 2011 - Oct 2023
+6.99% +11.78%
Oct 1981 - Sep 1993
0.00%
0 out of 763
+0.97%
Nov 2011 - Oct 2023
+4.58% +8.95%
Oct 1981 - Sep 1993
0.00%
0 out of 763
+3.51%
Nov 2010 - Oct 2023
+7.00% +11.71%
Jul 1982 - Jun 1995
0.00%
0 out of 751
+0.47%
Oct 1968 - Sep 1981
+4.51% +9.11%
Aug 1984 - Jul 1997
0.00%
0 out of 751
+4.24%
May 2011 - Apr 2025
+7.12% +11.52%
Jul 1982 - Jun 1996
0.00%
0 out of 739
+0.46%
Jul 1968 - Jun 1982
+4.54% +9.04%
Jul 1984 - Jun 1998
0.00%
0 out of 739
+4.21%
Mar 2008 - Feb 2023
+7.03% +11.54%
Aug 1982 - Jul 1997
0.00%
0 out of 727
+0.92%
Jul 1967 - Jun 1982
+4.51% +8.98%
Aug 1982 - Jul 1997
0.00%
0 out of 727
+4.19%
Nov 2007 - Oct 2023
+7.07% +11.53%
Jul 1982 - Jun 1998
0.00%
0 out of 715
+0.99%
Oct 1965 - Sep 1981
+4.49% +9.04%
Jul 1982 - Jun 1998
0.00%
0 out of 715
+4.49%
Nov 2006 - Oct 2023
+7.11% +11.13%
Jul 1982 - Jun 1999
0.00%
0 out of 703
+0.98%
Jul 1965 - Jun 1982
+4.41% +8.73%
Jul 1982 - Jun 1999
0.00%
0 out of 703
+4.63%
Jan 2005 - Dec 2022
+7.22% +10.75%
Apr 1982 - Mar 2000
0.00%
0 out of 691
+0.97%
Jul 1964 - Jun 1982
+4.46% +8.34%
Jul 1982 - Jun 2000
0.00%
0 out of 691
+4.59%
Nov 2004 - Oct 2023
+7.36% +10.37%
Oct 1981 - Sep 2000
0.00%
0 out of 679
+1.23%
Jul 1963 - Jun 1982
+4.56% +7.83%
Oct 1981 - Sep 2000
0.00%
0 out of 679
+4.74%
Nov 2003 - Oct 2023
+7.36% +10.10%
Jan 1979 - Dec 1998
0.00%
0 out of 667
+1.36%
Apr 1962 - Mar 1982
+4.56% +7.45%
Jul 1982 - Jun 2002
0.00%
0 out of 667
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