Tyler Golden Butterfly To EUR Bond Hedged Portfolio: ETF allocation and returns

Period: August 1953 - September 2024 (~71 years)
Consolidated Returns as of 30 September 2024
Rebalancing: at every Jan 1st
Currency: EUR
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1.00
Initial Capital
October 1994
10.25
Final Capital
September 2024
8.07%
Yearly Return
7.48
Std Deviation
-14.30%
Max Drawdown
24 months
Recovery Period
1.00
Initial Capital
August 1953
564.38
Final Capital
September 2024
9.31%
Yearly Return
8.47
Std Deviation
-19.08%
Max Drawdown
20 months
Recovery Period

The Tyler Golden Butterfly To EUR Bond Hedged Portfolio can be implemented with 5 ETFs. This portfolio has a high risk, indicating it can undergo considerable value changes. It is appropriate for investors with a high risk tolerance who are aiming for higher returns and can handle notable drawdowns.

The asset allocation is the following: 40% on the Stock Market, 40% on Fixed Income, 20% on Commodities. In general, bonds are useful for mitigating overall portfolio risk, especially if they are issued by national entities or highly reliable companies. This portfolio has a 40% allocation to bonds, leading to its classification as high risk.

As of September 2024, in the previous 30 Years, the Tyler Golden Butterfly To EUR Bond Hedged Portfolio obtained a 8.07% compound annual return, with a 7.48% standard deviation. It suffered a maximum drawdown of -14.30% that required 24 months to be recovered.

Disclaimer: The simulations on this website are provided in good faith but should NOT be taken as investment advice. We are not liable for any errors or actions based on this information. The authors of the website are not affiliated with the portfolio creators, who are the sole owners of their intellectual property. The translation of asset allocations into ETFs is based on the interpretation of LazyPortfolioETF.com and may not exactly reflect the original intent of the portfolio creators. Content is for informational, educational, illustrative, and entertainment purposes only.

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Asset Allocation and ETFs

The Tyler Golden Butterfly To EUR Bond Hedged Portfolio has the following asset allocation:

40% Stocks
40% Fixed Income
20% Commodities

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The Tyler Golden Butterfly To EUR Bond Hedged Portfolio can be implemented with the following ETFs:

Weight
(%)
ETF
Ticker
ETF
Currency
ETF Name Investment Themes (Orig.Currency)
20.00
XD9U.DE
EUR Xtrackers MSCI USA Equity, U.S., Large Cap (USD)
20.00
ZPRV.DE
EUR SPDR MSCI USA Small Cap Value Weighted Equity, U.S., Small Cap, Value (USD)
20.00
2B7S.DE
EUR
Hedged
iShares USD Treasury Bond 1-3yr EUR Hedged Bond, U.S., Short Term (USD)
20.00
IUSV.DE
EUR
Hedged
iShares USD Treasury Bond 20+yr EUR Hedged Bond, U.S., Long-Term (USD)
20.00
PHAU
EUR WisdomTree Physical Gold Commodity, Gold (USD)

Most of Lazy Portfolios are made of common components (asset classes), very simple and well defined. For a more complete view, find out the most common ETFs you can use to build your portfolio.

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Portfolio and ETF Returns as of Sep 30, 2024

The Tyler Golden Butterfly To EUR Bond Hedged Portfolio guaranteed the following returns.

Returns are calculated in EUR, assuming:
TYLER GOLDEN BUTTERFLY TO EUR BOND HEDGED PORTFOLIO
Time Period: 1 August 1953 - 30 September 2024 (~71 years)
Swipe left to see all data
  Chg (%) Return (%) Return (%) as of Sep 30, 2024
  1 Day Time ET(*) Oct 2024 YTD
(9M)
1M 6M 1Y 5Y 10Y 30Y MAX
(~71Y)
Tyler Golden Butterfly To EUR Bond Hedged Portfolio n.a. n.a. 11.44 1.85 6.40 19.86 7.17 7.07 8.07 9.31
Euro Inflation Adjusted return 9.08 1.85 5.21 17.69 3.27 4.59 5.89 6.47
Components
XD9U.DE
EUR Xtrackers MSCI USA n.a. - n.a. 19.65 1.72 6.18 27.61 14.95 14.20 11.09 11.31
ZPRV.DE
EUR SPDR MSCI USA Small Cap Value Weighted n.a. - n.a. 8.33 1.38 2.92 20.10 13.60 11.07 11.16 14.30
2B7S.DE
EUR
Hedged
iShares USD Treasury Bond 1-3yr EUR Hedged n.a. - n.a. 2.90 0.65 2.99 5.02 -0.05 -0.12 2.47 4.53
IUSV.DE
EUR
Hedged
iShares USD Treasury Bond 20+yr EUR Hedged n.a. - n.a. 0.23 0.83 4.57 12.58 -6.62 -0.77 4.81 5.07
PHAU
EUR WisdomTree Physical Gold n.a. - n.a. 26.08 4.24 14.64 34.13 11.45 9.00 6.59 6.21
Returns over 1 year are annualized
(*) Eastern Time (ET - America/New York)
Euro Inflation is updated to Aug 2024. Pending updates, the monthly inflation is set at 0% for the subsequent periods. Inflation (annualized) is 1Y: 1.85% , 5Y: 3.78% , 10Y: 2.37% , 30Y: 2.05%
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Capital Growth as of Sep 30, 2024

An investment of 1€, from October 1994 to September 2024, would be worth 10.25€, with a total return of 925.10% (8.07% annualized).

The Inflation Adjusted Capital would be 5.57€, with a net total return of 456.93% (5.89% annualized).

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An investment of 1€, from August 1953 to September 2024, would be worth 564.38€, with a total return of 56337.60% (9.31% annualized).

The Inflation Adjusted Capital would be 86.40€, with a net total return of 8539.53% (6.47% annualized).

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Portfolio Metrics as of Sep 30, 2024

Metrics of Tyler Golden Butterfly To EUR Bond Hedged Portfolio, updated as of 30 September 2024, provide a comprehensive overview of the portfolio's performance and risk characteristics.

These metrics include detailed data on returns, volatility, drawdowns and other key performance indicators. By examining them, you can gain insights into how the portfolio has performed over various time periods and understand its risk profile.

Metrics are calculated based on monthly returns, assuming:
TYLER GOLDEN BUTTERFLY TO EUR BOND HEDGED PORTFOLIO
Advanced Metrics
Time Period: 1 August 1953 - 30 September 2024 (~71 years)
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Metrics as of Sep 30, 2024
YTD
(9M)
1M 3M 6M 1Y 3Y 5Y 10Y 20Y 30Y MAX
(~71Y)
Investment Return (%)
11.44 1.85 4.92 6.40 19.86 5.18 7.17 7.07 7.76 8.07 9.31
Growth of 1€ 1.11 1.02 1.05 1.06 1.20 1.16 1.41 1.98 4.46 10.25 564.38
Infl. Adjusted Return (%)
9.08 1.85 4.80 5.21 17.69 -0.13 3.27 4.59 5.53 5.89 6.47
Euro Inflation (%) 2.16 0.00 0.11 1.13 1.85 5.32 3.78 2.37 2.11 2.05 2.67
Pending updates, the monthly inflation of Sep 2024 and beyond is set at 0%. Returns / Inflation rates over 1 year are annualized.
DRAWDOWN
Inflation Adjusted:
Inflation Adjusted:
Current 1Y 3Y 5Y 10Y 20Y 30Y MAX
Deepest Drawdown Depth (%) 0.00 -1.78 -10.30 -10.30 -10.30 -10.30 -14.30 -19.08
Start to Recovery (# months)
3 27 27 27 27 24 20
Start (yyyy mm) 2024 04 2022 01 2022 01 2022 01 2022 01 2002 04 1989 09
Start to Bottom (# months) 1 12 12 12 12 12 14
Bottom (yyyy mm) 2024 04 2022 12 2022 12 2022 12 2022 12 2003 03 1990 10
Bottom to End (# months) 2 15 15 15 15 12 6
End (yyyy mm) 2024 06 2024 03 2024 03 2024 03 2024 03 2004 03 1991 04
Longest Drawdown Depth (%)
same

same

same

same

same
-10.30 -10.30
Start to Recovery (# months)
27 27
Start (yyyy mm) 2024 04 2022 01 2022 01 2022 01 2022 01 2022 01 2022 01
Start to Bottom (# months) 1 12 12 12 12 12 12
Bottom (yyyy mm) 2024 04 2022 12 2022 12 2022 12 2022 12 2022 12 2022 12
Bottom to End (# months) 2 15 15 15 15 15 15
End (yyyy mm) 2024 06 2024 03 2024 03 2024 03 2024 03 2024 03 2024 03
Longest negative period (# months)
2 26 30 30 40 40 55
Start (yyyy mm) 2024 04 2021 10 2021 05 2021 05 2006 03 2006 03 1986 04
End (yyyy mm) 2024 05 2023 11 2023 10 2023 10 2009 06 2009 06 1990 10
Annualized Return (%) -4.32 -0.20 -0.10 -0.10 -0.21 -0.21 -0.16
Deepest Drawdown Depth (%) -4.01 -2.35 -19.69 -19.69 -19.69 -19.69 -19.69 -22.92
Start to Recovery (# months)
33* 3 33* 33* 33* 33* 33* 30
Start (yyyy mm) 2024 04 2022 01 2022 01 2022 01 2022 01 2022 01 1989 09
Start to Bottom (# months) 1 22 22 22 22 22 14
Bottom (yyyy mm) 2024 04 2023 10 2023 10 2023 10 2023 10 2023 10 1990 10
Bottom to End (# months) 2 11 11 11 11 11 16
End (yyyy mm) 2024 06 - - - - - 1992 02
Longest Drawdown Depth (%)
same

same

same

same
-9.75 -16.28 -21.21
Start to Recovery (# months)
34 39 42
Start (yyyy mm) 2024 04 2022 01 2022 01 2022 01 2007 02 2002 04 1968 12
Start to Bottom (# months) 1 22 22 22 21 12 19
Bottom (yyyy mm) 2024 04 2023 10 2023 10 2023 10 2008 10 2003 03 1970 06
Bottom to End (# months) 2 11 11 11 13 27 23
End (yyyy mm) 2024 06 - - - 2009 11 2005 06 1972 05
Longest negative period (# months)
2 36* 49 50 50 56 81
Start (yyyy mm) 2024 04 2021 10 2019 10 2019 09 2019 09 2000 09 1968 01
End (yyyy mm) 2024 05 2024 09 2023 10 2023 10 2023 10 2005 04 1974 09
Annualized Return (%) -8.78 -0.13 -0.43 -0.39 -0.39 -0.09 -0.14
Drawdowns / Negative periods marked with * are in progress
RISK INDICATORS
1Y 3Y 5Y 10Y 20Y 30Y MAX
Standard Deviation (%) 7.04 8.29 7.69 7.41 7.01 7.48 8.47
Sharpe Ratio 2.06 0.21 0.65 0.75 0.90 0.77 0.61
Sortino Ratio 2.91 0.30 0.90 1.07 1.27 1.06 0.86
Ulcer Index 0.67 5.20 4.16 3.66 2.95 3.51 4.02
Ratio: Return / Standard Deviation 2.82 0.62 0.93 0.95 1.11 1.08 1.10
Ratio: Return / Deepest Drawdown 11.17 0.50 0.70 0.69 0.75 0.56 0.49
Positive Months (%)
83.33 63.88 68.33 63.33 63.33 63.88 65.33
Positive Months 10 23 41 76 152 230 558
Negative Months 2 13 19 44 88 130 296
LONG TERM RETURNS
Inflation Adjusted:
Inflation Adjusted:
1Y 3Y 5Y 10Y 20Y 30Y MAX
Best 10 Years Return (%) - Annualized 7.07 9.96 9.96 18.45
Worst 10 Years Return (%) - Annualized 5.97 4.58 4.58
Best 10 Years Return (%) - Annualized 4.59 8.09 8.09 13.62
Worst 10 Years Return (%) - Annualized 3.65 2.40 1.53
TIMEFRAMES
Inflation Adjusted:
Inflation Adjusted:
1M 3M 6M 1Y 3Y 5Y 10Y 20Y 30Y MAX
··· As of Sep 2024 - Over the previous 30Y
Best Rolling Return (%) - Annualized 31.79 19.22 14.39 9.96 9.42 8.07
Worst Rolling Return (%) - Annualized -14.30 -0.93 3.04 4.58 6.58
Positive Periods (%) 83.9 99.3 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0
Best Rolling Return (%) - Annualized 29.85 17.21 12.59 8.09 7.47 5.89
Worst Rolling Return (%) - Annualized -17.85 -2.91 1.03 2.40 4.71
Positive Periods (%) 77.6 84.3 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0
95% VaR - Value at Risk (%) - Cumulative
2.88 4.14 4.67 3.99 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
95% CVaR - Conditional Value at Risk (%) 3.78 5.69 6.86 7.56 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
99% VaR - Value at Risk (%) - Cumulative
4.35 6.68 8.27 11.54 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
99% CVaR - Conditional Value at Risk (%) 5.29 8.31 10.57 13.10 2.70 0.00 0.00 0.00
Short term VaRs: analytical | 1+ year VaRs: historical data
Safe Withdrawal Rate (%) 90.21 30.23 19.46 10.56 6.83 7.73
Perpetual Withdrawal Rate (%) --- --- 1.03 2.50 4.21 6.34
% based on initial capital, inflation-adj. monthly withdrawals afterwards | Credits: BestRetirementPortfolio.com
··· All available data (Aug 1953 - Sep 2024)
Best Rolling Return (%) - Annualized 56.95 26.17 25.17 18.45 13.26 12.39
Worst Rolling Return (%) - Annualized -16.17 -0.93 2.47 4.58 6.58 7.21
Positive Periods (%) 84.2 99.5 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0
Best Rolling Return (%) - Annualized 52.81 22.95 19.23 13.62 9.90 8.68
Worst Rolling Return (%) - Annualized -19.77 -3.59 -1.38 1.53 3.85 5.03
Positive Periods (%) 76.8 90.3 98.6 100.0 100.0 100.0
95% VaR - Value at Risk (%) - Cumulative
3.25 4.65 5.21 4.95 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
95% CVaR - Conditional Value at Risk (%) 4.27 6.41 7.70 9.04 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
99% VaR - Value at Risk (%) - Cumulative
4.92 7.53 9.29 13.33 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
99% CVaR - Conditional Value at Risk (%) 5.98 9.37 11.89 14.89 1.11 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Short term VaRs: analytical | 1+ year VaRs: historical data
Safe Withdrawal Rate (%) 88.89 30.14 18.62 10.17 6.83 6.02
Perpetual Withdrawal Rate (%) --- --- --- 1.65 3.94 5.01
% based on initial capital, inflation-adj. monthly withdrawals afterwards | Credits: BestRetirementPortfolio.com
Terms and Definitions
  • Annualized Portfolio Return: it's the annualized geometric mean return of the portfolio.
  • Deepest/Longest Drawdown: a drawdown refers to the decline in value from a relative peak value to a relative trough. The deepest (or maximum) drawdown is the maximum observed loss from a peak to a trough of a portfolio before a new peak is attained. The longest drawdown is the period observed from a peak to the subsequent peak with the greatest duration.
  • Longest negative period: it's the maximum period for which an overall negative return has been observed.
  • Standard Deviation: it's a measure of the dispersion of returns around the mean.
  • Sharpe Ratio: it's a measure of risk-adjusted performance of the portfolio. It's calculated by dividing the excess return of the portfolio over the risk-free rate by the portfolio standard deviation. The risk-free rate here considered is the 1-3 Mth T-Bill return.
  • Sortino Ratio: another measure of risk-adjusted performance of the portfolio. It's a modification of the Sharpe Ratio (same formula but the denominator is the portfolio downside standard deviation).
  • Ulcer Index: it's a measure of downside risk that quantifies the depth and duration of drawdowns in an investment portfolio.
  • Best/Worst 10Y returns: the best and the worst 10-year return over a time frame.
  • Rolling Returns: N-year returns over a time frame, calculated over all the available data source (best, worst, % of positive returns). Each rolling period, longer than the longest negative period, yielded a non-negative minimum return.
  • Value at Risk (VaR): it's an evaluation of a cumulative worst-case loss (in absolute value), associated with a probability (95%-99%) and a time horizon. For short term, it's calculated based on the expected return and standard deviation, assuming a normal distribution of monthly returns. For long term is retrieved by the historical rolling return data.
  • Conditional Value at Risk (CVaR): it represents the average expected loss if that worst-case threshold (95%-99%) is ever crossed.
  • Safe Withdrawal Rate (SWR): it's the percentage of the initial portfolio balance that can be withdrawn at the beginning of each month with inflation adjustment, without the portfolio running out of money in any case (money amount withdrawal).
    For instance: Your initial invested capital is 100.000$; withdrawal rate (annualized) is 4%. This means that, in the first month, you will withdraw 100.000 * 4% * 1/12 = 333.33$. The second month, you’ll withdraw 333.33$ plus the inflation monthly rate. You’ll continue adjusting your withdraw monthly for inflation.
  • Perpetual Withdrawal Rate (PWR): it's the percentage of the initial portfolio balance that can be withdrawn at the beginning of each month with inflation adjustment, preserving the original invested capital, adjusted for inflation too.
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Portfolio Components Correlation

Correlation measures to what degree the returns of two assets move in relation to each other. It is a statistical measure that describes the extent to which the returns of one asset are related to the returns of another asset.

COMPONENTS MONTHLY CORRELATIONS
Monthly correlations as of 30 September 2024
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Terms and Definitions
Correlation values range between -1 and +1
  • A correlation of +1 indicates that the returns of the two assets move in perfect synchrony; when one asset's returns go up, the other asset's returns also go up by the same percentage, and vice versa. This perfect positive correlation implies that the assets perform similarly in different market conditions.
  • A correlation of -1 indicates a perfect inverse relationship between the returns of the two assets. When one asset's returns go up, the other asset's returns go down by the same percentage. This perfect negative correlation suggests that the assets move in opposite directions, providing a diversification benefit by reducing overall portfolio risk.
  • A correlation of 0 means that there is no linear relationship between the returns of the two assets. The returns of one asset do not predict the returns of the other.
Learn about historical correlations here: see how the main asset classes relate to each other.

Drawdowns

A drawdown refers to the decline in value from a relative peak value to a relative trough. A maximum drawdown is the maximum observed loss from a peak to a trough of a portfolio before a new peak is attained.

TYLER GOLDEN BUTTERFLY TO EUR BOND HEDGED PORTFOLIO
Drawdown periods
Drawdown periods - Inflation Adjusted
Time Period: 1 October 1994 - 30 September 2024 (30 Years)
Time Period: 1 August 1953 - 30 September 2024 (~71 years)
Inflation Adjusted:

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Rolling Returns

For a detailed rolling return analysis, click here
Tyler Golden Butterfly To EUR Bond Hedged Portfolio: Rolling Returns

A rolling return is a measure of investment performance that calculates the return of an investment over a set period of time, with the starting date rolling forward. This approach can provide a more accurate representation of the investment's historical performance and helps investors to evaluate the investment's consistency over time.

TYLER GOLDEN BUTTERFLY TO EUR BOND HEDGED PORTFOLIO
Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Returns - Inflation Adjusted
Time Period: 1 October 1994 - 30 September 2024 (30 Years)
Time Period: 1 August 1953 - 30 September 2024 (~71 years)
Inflation Adjusted:

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The values shown for the rolling periods represent key statistical points: the minimum, maximum, median, and the 15th and 85th percentiles. These percentiles give insight into the distribution of the data, indicating the range within which the central 70% of the values lie, while the median represents the middle value.

Seasonality

In which months is it better to invest in Tyler Golden Butterfly To EUR Bond Hedged Portfolio?

Both the Average Return and the Gain Frequency (Win %) are useful to get an idea of what happened in the past. They are retrieved considering the time period from August 1953 to September 2024.

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For further information about the seasonality, check the Asset Class Seasonality page.

Monthly Returns

This section provides a visual/tabular representation of the performance variability in the Tyler Golden Butterfly To EUR Bond Hedged Portfolio over time. It illustrates the distribution of monthly returns, showcasing the range and frequency of positive and negative returns.

TYLER GOLDEN BUTTERFLY TO EUR BOND HEDGED PORTFOLIO
Monthly Returns Distribution
Time Period: 1 October 1994 - 30 September 2024 (30 Years)
Time Period: 1 August 1953 - 30 September 2024 (~71 years)
230 Positive Months (64%) - 130 Negative Months (36%)
558 Positive Months (65%) - 296 Negative Months (35%)

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Methodology

Returns, up to April 2021, have been derived using the historical series of equivalent ETFs / Assets, instead of the actual ETFs of the portfolio.
You can find additional information on extended Data Sources here.

In particular, the series derived from equivalent datasets are:
  • Xtrackers MSCI USA (XD9U.DE), up to May 2014
  • SPDR MSCI USA Small Cap Value Weighted (ZPRV.DE), up to February 2015
  • iShares USD Treasury Bond 1-3yr EUR Hedged (2B7S.DE), up to April 2021
  • iShares USD Treasury Bond 20+yr EUR Hedged (IUSV.DE), up to April 2021
  • WisdomTree Physical Gold (PHAU), up to January 2008

Portfolio efficiency

No other portfolio in our database granted a higher return over 30 Years and a less severe drawdown at the same time.

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In the following table, you can compare the current portfolio with a list of famous portfolios. Metrics are calculated over the last 30 Years.

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The following portfolios share asset allocation strategy and/or similar asset weights.

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The first official book of
Build wealth
with Lazy Portfolios and Passive Investing