Tyler Golden Butterfly Portfolio: Rolling Returns

Data Source: from January 1927 to March 2024 (~97 years)
Consolidated Returns as of 31 March 2024

Holding the Tyler Golden Butterfly Portfolio, how long should you stay invested to have high probability to obtain a positive return?

Considering all the available data source (~97 years), the longest period with a negative return lasted 74 months (from January 1927 to February 1933).

This means that every rolling period of 75 months or above has always granted a positive return.

To obtain comprehensive information, please consult the Tyler Golden Butterfly Portfolio: ETF allocation and returns page.

Previous vs subsequent Returns

Considering all 10-year rolling periods, is there a relationship between past and future returns, at a given date?

In the following chart, we show how past returns (x-axis) and subsequent returns (y-axis) are related.

Neighboring data is aggregated and occurrences are indicated. It is possible to zoom by clicking or drawing the desired area

TYLER GOLDEN BUTTERFLY PORTFOLIO
Previous vs Next Returns - 10 Years annualized
Updated to March 2024

The annualized return of the last 10 years has been 5.77% (updated at Mar 31, 2024).

Rolling Returns

A rolling return is a measure of investment performance that calculates the return of an investment over a set period of time, with the starting date rolling forward. This approach can provide a more accurate representation of the investment's historical performance and helps investors to evaluate the investment's consistency over time.

TYLER GOLDEN BUTTERFLY PORTFOLIO
Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Returns - Inflation Adjusted
Data Source: 1 April 1994 - 31 March 2024 (30 Years)
Data Source: 1 January 1927 - 31 March 2024 (~97 years)
Inflation Adjusted:

Annualized Rolling Returns - 1 Year (12 months)

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Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return +8.95% +72.34%
Jul 1932 - Jun 1933 		-32.17%
Jul 1931 - Jun 1932 		17.13%
198 out of 1156
US Inflation Adjusted +5.69% +84.55%
Jul 1932 - Jun 1933 		-24.69%
Jul 1931 - Jun 1932 		26.12%
302 out of 1156
1 Year Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month
1 Year Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

Annualized Rolling Returns - 2 Years (24 months)

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Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return +8.33% +35.24%
Jul 1932 - Jun 1934 		-24.76%
Jun 1930 - May 1932 		9.09%
104 out of 1144
US Inflation Adjusted +5.40% +36.60%
Jun 1932 - May 1934 		-16.43%
Jun 1930 - May 1932 		18.36%
210 out of 1144
2 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month
2 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

Annualized Rolling Returns - 3 Years (36 months)

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Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return +8.50% +24.69%
Jul 1932 - Jun 1935 		-17.91%
Jul 1929 - Jun 1932 		4.42%
50 out of 1132
US Inflation Adjusted +5.25% +24.38%
Jul 1932 - Jun 1935 		-11.40%
Jul 1929 - Jun 1932 		11.57%
131 out of 1132
3 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month
3 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

Annualized Rolling Returns - 4 Years (48 months)

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Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return +8.16% +24.33%
Jul 1932 - Jun 1936 		-10.94%
Jun 1928 - May 1932 		3.66%
41 out of 1120
US Inflation Adjusted +5.28% +23.90%
Jun 1932 - May 1936 		-5.73%
Jun 1928 - May 1932 		7.68%
86 out of 1120
4 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month
4 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

Annualized Rolling Returns - 5 Years (60 months)

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Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return +8.14% +20.88%
Jun 1932 - May 1937 		-6.33%
Jun 1927 - May 1932 		2.89%
32 out of 1108
US Inflation Adjusted +5.37% +19.68%
Jun 1932 - May 1937 		-4.33%
Apr 1937 - Mar 1942 		4.24%
47 out of 1108
5 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month
5 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

Annualized Rolling Returns - 6 Years (72 months)

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Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return +8.29% +20.45%
Oct 1974 - Sep 1980 		-1.38%
Jan 1927 - Dec 1932 		0.36%
4 out of 1096
US Inflation Adjusted +5.35% +14.73%
Jul 1932 - Jun 1938 		-3.10%
Dec 1936 - Nov 1942 		3.10%
34 out of 1096
6 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month
6 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

Annualized Rolling Returns - 7 Years (84 months)

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Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return +8.30% +17.54%
Jun 1976 - May 1983 		+1.97%
Apr 1928 - Mar 1935 		0.00%
0 out of 1084
US Inflation Adjusted +5.56% +13.66%
Jun 1932 - May 1939 		-1.68%
Jun 1946 - May 1953 		1.85%
20 out of 1084
7 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month
7 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

Annualized Rolling Returns - 8 Years (96 months)

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Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return +8.16% +17.57%
Apr 1978 - Mar 1986 		+1.93%
Apr 1930 - Mar 1938 		0.00%
0 out of 1072
US Inflation Adjusted +5.54% +11.25%
May 1932 - Apr 1940 		-0.72%
Feb 1946 - Jan 1954 		0.75%
8 out of 1072
8 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month
8 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

Annualized Rolling Returns - 9 Years (108 months)

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Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return +8.09% +17.76%
Oct 1974 - Sep 1983 		+1.96%
Apr 1929 - Mar 1938 		0.00%
0 out of 1060
US Inflation Adjusted +5.50% +10.09%
Mar 1978 - Feb 1987 		+0.18%
Mar 1939 - Feb 1948 		0.00%
0 out of 1060
9 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month
9 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

Annualized Rolling Returns - 10 Years (120 months)

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Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return +8.18% +17.05%
Sep 1976 - Aug 1986 		+2.31%
Sep 1929 - Aug 1939 		0.00%
0 out of 1048
US Inflation Adjusted +5.57% +9.91%
Feb 1927 - Jan 1937 		+0.35%
Mar 1939 - Feb 1949 		0.00%
0 out of 1048
10 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month
10 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

Annualized Rolling Returns - 11 Years (132 months)

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Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return +8.32% +16.70%
Sep 1976 - Aug 1987 		+2.18%
Sep 1929 - Aug 1940 		0.00%
0 out of 1036
US Inflation Adjusted +5.62% +9.77%
Jul 1982 - Jun 1993 		-0.41%
Mar 1937 - Feb 1948 		0.19%
2 out of 1036
11 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month
11 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

Annualized Rolling Returns - 12 Years (144 months)

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Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return +8.36% +17.08%
Oct 1974 - Sep 1986 		+2.49%
May 1930 - Apr 1942 		0.00%
0 out of 1024
US Inflation Adjusted +5.45% +9.75%
Oct 1974 - Sep 1986 		-0.22%
Mar 1937 - Feb 1949 		0.39%
4 out of 1024
12 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month
12 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

Annualized Rolling Returns - 13 Years (156 months)

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Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return +8.24% +16.80%
Oct 1974 - Sep 1987 		+2.08%
Sep 1929 - Aug 1942 		0.00%
0 out of 1012
US Inflation Adjusted +5.47% +9.68%
Oct 1974 - Sep 1987 		+0.60%
Dec 1936 - Nov 1949 		0.00%
0 out of 1012
13 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month
13 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

Annualized Rolling Returns - 14 Years (168 months)

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Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return +8.25% +15.43%
Oct 1974 - Sep 1988 		+2.96%
May 1928 - Apr 1942 		0.00%
0 out of 1000
US Inflation Adjusted +5.48% +9.33%
Jun 1932 - May 1946 		+1.20%
Mar 1937 - Feb 1951 		0.00%
0 out of 1000
14 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month
14 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

Annualized Rolling Returns - 15 Years (180 months)

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Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return +8.30% +15.38%
Oct 1974 - Sep 1989 		+3.74%
Oct 1927 - Sep 1942 		0.00%
0 out of 988
US Inflation Adjusted +5.38% +9.04%
Aug 1982 - Jul 1997 		+1.07%
Mar 1937 - Feb 1952 		0.00%
0 out of 988
15 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month
15 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

Annualized Rolling Returns - 16 Years (192 months)

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Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return +8.22% +15.76%
Jul 1970 - Jun 1986 		+4.58%
Dec 1928 - Nov 1944 		0.00%
0 out of 976
US Inflation Adjusted +5.34% +9.13%
Jul 1982 - Jun 1998 		+1.19%
Mar 1937 - Feb 1953 		0.00%
0 out of 976
16 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month
16 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

Annualized Rolling Returns - 17 Years (204 months)

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Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return +8.28% +15.53%
Jul 1970 - Jun 1987 		+4.93%
Oct 1929 - Sep 1946 		0.00%
0 out of 964
US Inflation Adjusted +5.35% +8.58%
Jul 1982 - Jun 1999 		+1.23%
Dec 1936 - Nov 1953 		0.00%
0 out of 964
17 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month
17 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

Annualized Rolling Returns - 18 Years (216 months)

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Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return +8.42% +14.71%
Jul 1970 - Jun 1988 		+4.86%
Sep 1929 - Aug 1947 		0.00%
0 out of 952
US Inflation Adjusted +5.35% +8.24%
Jul 1982 - Jun 2000 		+2.00%
Apr 1936 - Mar 1954 		0.00%
0 out of 952
18 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month
18 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

Annualized Rolling Returns - 19 Years (228 months)

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Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return +8.52% +14.48%
Jul 1970 - Jun 1989 		+4.68%
Sep 1929 - Aug 1948 		0.00%
0 out of 940
US Inflation Adjusted +5.37% +7.99%
Oct 1974 - Sep 1993 		+2.59%
May 1934 - Apr 1953 		0.00%
0 out of 940
19 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month
19 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

Annualized Rolling Returns - 20 Years (240 months)

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Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return +8.44% +13.89%
Jul 1970 - Jun 1990 		+4.53%
Sep 1929 - Aug 1949 		0.00%
0 out of 928
US Inflation Adjusted +5.29% +7.73%
May 1978 - Apr 1998 		+2.36%
Mar 1937 - Feb 1957 		0.00%
0 out of 928
20 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month
20 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

To obtain comprehensive information, please consult the Tyler Golden Butterfly Portfolio: ETF allocation and returns page.