Golden Butterfly 2x Leveraged Portfolio: ETF allocation and returns

Data Source: from March 2010 to May 2023 (~13 years)
Consolidated Returns as of 31 May 2023
Live Update: Jun 02 2023
PORTFOLIO • LIVE PERFORMANCE (USD currency)
0.99%
1 Day
Jun 02 2023
2.14%
Current Month
June 2023

The Golden Butterfly 2x Leveraged Portfolio is a High Risk portfolio and can be implemented with 4 ETFs.

It's exposed for 40% on the Stock Market and for 20% on Commodities.

In the last 10 Years, the Golden Butterfly 2x Leveraged Portfolio obtained a 7.67% compound annual return, with a 15.24% standard deviation.

Asset Allocation and ETFs

The Golden Butterfly 2x Leveraged Portfolio has the following asset allocation:

40% Stocks
40% Fixed Income
20% Commodities

The Golden Butterfly 2x Leveraged Portfolio can be implemented with the following ETFs:

Weight (%) Ticker ETF Name Investment Themes
20.00
SAA
ProShares Ultra SmallCap600 2x, Equity, U.S.
20.00
SSO
ProShares Ultra S&P 500 2x, Equity, U.S., Large Cap
40.00
UST
ProShares Ultra 7-10 Year Treasury 2x, Bond, U.S., Intermediate-Term
20.00
UGL
ProShares Ultra Gold 2x, Commodity, Gold

Most of Lazy Portfolios are made of common components (asset classes), very simple and well defined. For a more complete view, find out the most common ETFs you can use to build your portfolio.

Portfolio and ETF Returns as of May 31, 2023

The Golden Butterfly 2x Leveraged Portfolio guaranteed the following returns.

Portfolio returns are calculated in USD, assuming: June 2023 return is calculated on the hypothesis of a newly built portfolio, with the starting asset allocation.
GOLDEN BUTTERFLY 2X LEVERAGED PORTFOLIO
Consolidated returns as of 31 May 2023
Live Update: Jun 02 2023
Swipe left to see all data
    Chg (%) Return (%) Return (%) as of May 31, 2023
    1 Day Time ET(*) Jun 2023 1M 6M 1Y 5Y 10Y MAX
(~13Y)
Golden Butterfly 2x Leveraged Portfolio 0.99 2.14 -2.68 -0.01 -8.38 4.66 7.67 10.57
US Inflation Adjusted return -2.68 -1.87 -11.72 0.81 4.86 7.80
Components
SAA
ProShares Ultra SmallCap600 8.25 Jun 02 2023 10.01 -4.07 -20.63 -22.82 -3.27 10.17 6.53
SSO
ProShares Ultra S&P 500 2.95 Jun 02 2023 4.82 0.29 2.43 -3.84 13.82 18.47 11.95
UST
ProShares Ultra 7-10 Year Treasury -1.62 Jun 02 2023 -1.28 -3.21 0.00 -10.94 -1.26 -0.04 3.23
UGL
ProShares Ultra Gold -2.99 Jun 02 2023 -1.60 -3.50 16.72 4.87 9.20 0.80 4.72
Returns over 1 year are annualized | Available data source: since Mar 2010
(*) Eastern Time (ET - America/New York)
US Inflation is updated to Apr 2023. Waiting for updates, inflation of May 2023 is set to 0%. Current inflation (annualized) is 1Y: 3.79% , 5Y: 3.81% , 10Y: 2.68%
Live update: World Markets and Indexes

In 2022, the Golden Butterfly 2x Leveraged Portfolio granted a 0.25% dividend yield. If you are interested in getting periodic income, please refer to the Golden Butterfly 2x Leveraged Portfolio: Dividend Yield page.

Portfolio Metrics as of May 31, 2023

Metrics of Golden Butterfly 2x Leveraged Portfolio, updated as of 31 May 2023.

Portfolio metrics are calculated based on monthly returns, assuming:
GOLDEN BUTTERFLY 2X LEVERAGED PORTFOLIO
Portfolio Metrics
Data Source: 1 March 2010 - 31 May 2023 (~13 years)
Swipe left to see all data
Metrics as of May 31, 2023
1M 3M 6M 1Y 3Y 5Y 10Y MAX
(~13Y)
Portfolio Return (%) -2.68 1.52 -0.01 -8.38 1.37 4.66 7.67 10.57
US Inflation (%) 0.00 0.84 1.90 3.79 5.77 3.81 2.68 2.57
Infl. Adjusted Return (%) -2.68 0.67 -1.87 -11.72 -4.16 0.81 4.86 7.80
Waiting for updates, inflation of May 2023 is temporarily set to 0%. Returns / Inflation rates over 1 year are annualized.
RISK INDICATORS
Standard Deviation (%) 25.74 19.58 18.31 15.24 14.93
Sharpe Ratio -0.45 0.02 0.18 0.45 0.44
Sortino Ratio -0.65 0.02 0.25 0.61 0.60
MAXIMUM DRAWDOWN
Drawdown Depth (%) -20.11 -34.50 -34.50 -34.50 -34.50
Start (yyyy mm) 2022 06 2022 01 2022 01 2022 01 2022 01
Bottom (yyyy mm) 2022 09 2022 09 2022 09 2022 09 2022 09
Start to Bottom (# months) 4 9 9 9 9
Start to Recovery (# months) in progress
> 12
> 17
> 17
> 17
> 17
ROLLING PERIOD RETURNS - Annualized
Best Return (%) 40.49 22.76 18.76 14.12
Worst Return (%) -29.16 -0.85 2.81 6.48
% Positive Periods 84% 98% 100% 100%
MONTHS
Positive 0 2 3 6 20 36 71 98
Negative 1 1 3 6 16 24 49 61
% Positive 0% 67% 50% 50% 56% 60% 59% 62%
WITHDRAWAL RATES (WR)
Safe WR (%) 36.16 23.05 14.85 16.60
Perpetual WR (%) 0.00 0.80 4.63 7.24
Terms and Definitions
  • Annualized Portfolio Return: it's the annualized geometric mean return of the portfolio
  • Standard Deviation: it's a measure of the dispersion of returns around the mean
  • Sharpe Ratio: it's a measure of risk-adjusted performance of the portfolio. It's calculated by dividing the excess return of the portfolio over the risk-free rate by the portfolio standard deviation. The risk-free rate here considered is the 1-3 Mth T-Bill return.
  • Sortino Ratio: another measure of risk-adjusted performance of the portfolio. It's a modification of the Sharpe Ratio (same formula but the denominator is the portfolio downside standard deviation).
  • Maximum Drawdown: a drawdown refers to the decline in value from a relative peak value to a relative trough. A maximum drawdown is the maximum observed loss from a peak to a trough of a portfolio before a new peak is attained.
  • Rolling Returns: returns over a time frame (best, worst, % of positive returns).
  • Pos./Neg. Months: number of months with positive/negative return.
  • Safe Withdrawal Rate (SWR): it's the percentage of the original portfolio balance that can be withdrawn at the end of each year with inflation adjustment, without the portfolio running out of money (dollar amount withdrawal).
  • Perpetual Withdrawal Rate (PWR): it's the percentage of portfolio balance that can be withdrawn at the end of each year, while retaining the inflation adjusted portfolio balance (percentage withdrawal).

Portfolio Components Correlation

Correlation measures to what degree the returns of the two assets move in relation to each other.

Correlation coefficient is a numerical value between -1 and +1.

If one variable goes up by a certain amount, the correlation coefficient indicates which way the other variable moves and by how much.

Asset correlations are calculated based on monthly returns.
COMPONENTS MONTHLY CORRELATIONS
Monthly correlations as of 31 May 2023
Swipe left to see all data
Asset
SAA
SSO
UST
UGL
SAA
-
0.89
0.50
0.10
SSO
0.89
-
0.74
0.37
UST
0.50
0.74
-
0.75
UGL
0.10
0.37
0.75
-
Asset
SAA
SSO
UST
UGL
SAA
-
0.89
-0.07
0.03
SSO
0.89
-
0.11
0.18
UST
-0.07
0.11
-
0.45
UGL
0.03
0.18
0.45
-
Asset
SAA
SSO
UST
UGL
SAA
-
0.85
-0.15
-0.04
SSO
0.85
-
0.01
0.08
UST
-0.15
0.01
-
0.45
UGL
-0.04
0.08
0.45
-
Asset
SAA
SSO
UST
UGL
SAA
-
0.87
-0.27
0.02
SSO
0.87
-
-0.15
0.09
UST
-0.27
-0.15
-
0.36
UGL
0.02
0.09
0.36
-

If you want to learn more about historical correlations, you can find out here how the main asset class are correlated to each other.

Readings that may interest you

Capital Growth as of May 31, 2023

An investment of 1000$, since June 2013, now would be worth 2093.12$, with a total return of 109.31% (7.67% annualized).

The Inflation Adjusted Capital now would be 1607.26$, with a net total return of 60.73% (4.86% annualized).
An investment of 1000$, since March 2010, now would be worth 3786.03$, with a total return of 278.60% (10.57% annualized).

The Inflation Adjusted Capital now would be 2704.97$, with a net total return of 170.50% (7.80% annualized).

Drawdowns

A drawdown refers to the decline in value from a relative peak value to a relative trough. A maximum drawdown is the maximum observed loss from a peak to a trough of a portfolio before a new peak is attained.

GOLDEN BUTTERFLY 2X LEVERAGED PORTFOLIO
Drawdown periods
Updated to May 2023
Swipe left to see all data
Drawdown period
Recovery period
Total
Drawdown Start Bottom #Months End #Months #Months
-34.50% Jan 2022 Sep 2022 9 in progress 8 17
-13.21% Sep 2018 Dec 2018 4 Jun 2019 6 10
-12.82% Feb 2020 Mar 2020 2 Jun 2020 3 5
-9.83% Feb 2015 Sep 2015 8 Mar 2016 6 14
-6.97% Aug 2016 Nov 2016 4 Feb 2017 3 7
-6.78% Sep 2020 Oct 2020 2 Dec 2020 2 4
-5.84% Jun 2013 Jun 2013 1 Jul 2013 1 2
-5.71% Sep 2021 Sep 2021 1 Dec 2021 3 4
-5.57% Jul 2014 Sep 2014 3 Dec 2014 3 6
-5.55% Feb 2018 Apr 2018 3 Aug 2018 4 7
-2.75% Aug 2013 Aug 2013 1 Sep 2013 1 2
-2.70% May 2016 May 2016 1 Jun 2016 1 2
-1.52% Mar 2014 Apr 2014 2 Jun 2014 2 4
-0.70% Jun 2021 Jun 2021 1 Jul 2021 1 2
-0.55% Mar 2017 Mar 2017 1 Apr 2017 1 2
-0.52% Sep 2019 Sep 2019 1 Oct 2019 1 2
-0.37% May 2017 Jun 2017 2 Jul 2017 1 3
-0.14% Jan 2021 Jan 2021 1 Feb 2021 1 2
Swipe left to see all data
Drawdown period
Recovery period
Total
Drawdown Start Bottom #Months End #Months #Months
-34.50% Jan 2022 Sep 2022 9 in progress 8 17
-13.21% Sep 2018 Dec 2018 4 Jun 2019 6 10
-12.82% Feb 2020 Mar 2020 2 Jun 2020 3 5
-9.83% Feb 2015 Sep 2015 8 Mar 2016 6 14
-9.39% Sep 2011 Sep 2011 1 Jan 2012 4 5
-7.59% Apr 2013 Jun 2013 3 Sep 2013 3 6
-6.97% Aug 2016 Nov 2016 4 Feb 2017 3 7
-6.78% Sep 2020 Oct 2020 2 Dec 2020 2 4
-5.71% Sep 2021 Sep 2021 1 Dec 2021 3 4
-5.63% May 2012 May 2012 1 Aug 2012 3 4
-5.57% Jul 2014 Sep 2014 3 Dec 2014 3 6
-5.55% Feb 2018 Apr 2018 3 Aug 2018 4 7
-5.28% May 2010 Jun 2010 2 Sep 2010 3 5
-3.36% Oct 2012 Oct 2012 1 Jan 2013 3 4
-2.92% Jun 2011 Jun 2011 1 Jul 2011 1 2
-2.70% May 2016 May 2016 1 Jun 2016 1 2
-1.66% Jan 2011 Jan 2011 1 Feb 2011 1 2
-1.52% Mar 2014 Apr 2014 2 Jun 2014 2 4
-0.70% Jun 2021 Jun 2021 1 Jul 2021 1 2
-0.55% Mar 2017 Mar 2017 1 Apr 2017 1 2

Rolling Returns ( more details)

A rolling return is a measure of investment performance that calculates the return of an investment over a set period of time, with the starting date rolling forward. This approach can provide a more accurate representation of the investment's historical performance and helps investors to evaluate the investment's consistency over time.

GOLDEN BUTTERFLY 2X LEVERAGED PORTFOLIO
Annualized Rolling Returns
Data Source: from March 2010 to May 2023
Swipe left to see all data
Rolling
Period		 Annualized Return (%) Negative
Periods
Average Latest Best Worst
1 Year
 11.00 -8.38 40.49
Sep 2010 - Aug 2011 		-29.16
Nov 2021 - Oct 2022 		16.22%
2 Years
 11.16 -10.91 27.52
Mar 2010 - Feb 2012 		-10.91
Jun 2021 - May 2023 		7.35%
3 Years
 11.19 1.37 22.76
Jan 2019 - Dec 2021 		-0.85
Oct 2019 - Sep 2022 		2.42%
5 Years
 10.60 4.66 18.76
Mar 2010 - Feb 2015 		2.81
Oct 2017 - Sep 2022 		0.00%
7 Years
 10.66 6.72 15.22
Mar 2010 - Feb 2017 		6.22
Nov 2015 - Oct 2022 		0.00%
10 Years
 11.02 7.67 14.12
Sep 2010 - Aug 2020 		6.48
Oct 2012 - Sep 2022 		0.00%
Annualized rolling and average returns over full calendar month periods

If you need a deeper detail about rolling returns, please refer to the Golden Butterfly 2x Leveraged Portfolio: Rolling Returns page.

Seasonality

In which months is it better to invest in Golden Butterfly 2x Leveraged Portfolio?

Both the Average Return and the Gain Frequency (Win %) are useful to get an idea of what happened in the past.

For further information about the seasonality, check the Asset Class Seasonality page.
Swipe left to see all data
Monthly Average Return (%) and Gain Frequency
Return (%) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Average
Gain Frequency
3.02
60%
-1.35
60%
-0.98
60%
1.19
80%
-0.16
40%
0.60
40%
3.97
100%
0.31
80%
-5.12
0%
0.48
60%
3.32
80%
0.97
60%
 Capital Growth on monthly avg returns
100
103.02
101.63
100.63
101.83
101.67
102.28
106.34
106.66
101.20
101.69
105.07
106.09
Best 10.9
2023 		2.5
2019 		4.3
2023 		8.8
2020 		4.0
2021 		9.9
2019 		8.3
2020 		3.6
2018 		-0.5
2019 		5.4
2021 		9.6
2022 		6.9
2020
Worst -7.2
2022 		-6.6
2023 		-8.8
2020 		-10.5
2022 		-4.4
2019 		-7.9
2022 		0.8
2019 		-8.2
2022 		-12.2
2022 		-7.9
2018 		-1.3
2021 		-5.1
2018
Monthly Seasonality over the period Jun 2018 - May 2023
Swipe left to see all data
Monthly Average Return (%) and Gain Frequency
Return (%) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Average
Gain Frequency
2.42
70%
0.57
60%
-0.24
50%
0.90
60%
0.17
50%
0.62
40%
2.89
80%
-0.07
60%
-2.66
30%
1.15
70%
2.15
70%
0.67
70%
 Capital Growth on monthly avg returns
100
102.42
103.00
102.76
103.68
103.86
104.50
107.52
107.45
104.60
105.80
108.07
108.80
Best 10.9
2023 		7.4
2016 		4.3
2023 		8.8
2020 		4.0
2021 		9.9
2019 		8.3
2020 		4.6
2014 		5.0
2013 		6.0
2015 		9.6
2022 		6.9
2020
Worst -7.2
2022 		-6.6
2023 		-8.8
2020 		-10.5
2022 		-4.4
2019 		-7.9
2022 		-4.4
2014 		-8.2
2022 		-12.2
2022 		-7.9
2018 		-1.7
2015 		-5.1
2018
Monthly Seasonality over the period Jun 2013 - May 2023
Swipe left to see all data
Monthly Average Return (%) and Gain Frequency
Return (%) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Average
Gain Frequency
2.73
69%
0.81
62%
0.63
64%
1.59
64%
-0.61
43%
0.38
38%
2.86
85%
0.59
69%
-1.80
38%
1.62
69%
1.87
77%
0.63
62%
 Capital Growth on monthly avg returns
100
102.73
103.56
104.21
105.87
105.22
105.62
108.64
109.28
107.32
109.06
111.10
111.80
Best 10.9
2023 		7.4
2016 		4.5
2010 		8.8
2020 		4.0
2021 		9.9
2019 		8.3
2020 		4.6
2014 		9.1
2010 		8.6
2011 		9.6
2022 		6.9
2020
Worst -7.2
2022 		-6.6
2023 		-8.8
2020 		-10.5
2022 		-5.6
2012 		-7.9
2022 		-4.4
2014 		-8.2
2022 		-12.2
2022 		-7.9
2018 		-1.7
2015 		-5.1
2018
Monthly Seasonality over the period Mar 2010 - May 2023

Monthly/Yearly Returns

Golden Butterfly 2x Leveraged Portfolio data source starts from March 2010: let's focus on monthly and yearly returns.

We are providing two different views:
  • Histogram: it shows the distribution of the returns recorded so far
  • Plain Table: it shows the detailed monthly and yearly returns
MONTHLY RETURNS HISTOGRAM
Mar 2010 - May 2023
98 Positive Months (62%) - 61 Negative Months (38%)
MONTHLY RETURNS TABLE
Mar 2010 - May 2023
(Scroll down to see all data)
Swipe left to see all data
Yearly Return(%)
Monthly Return(%)
Year Total Infl.Adj Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
2023
 +5.24 +2.96 10.9 -6.6 4.3 0.0 -2.7
2022
 -28.62 -32.95 -7.2 1.4 -1.6 -10.5 -1.0 -7.9 7.7 -8.2 -12.2 4.6 9.6 -5.0
2021
 +16.84 +9.16 -0.1 0.3 1.1 5.1 4.0 -0.7 1.8 1.7 -5.7 5.4 -1.3 4.8
2020
 +19.29 +17.69 2.6 -4.4 -8.8 8.8 3.3 2.4 8.3 1.6 -4.6 -2.3 5.7 6.9
2019
 +32.73 +29.77 9.0 2.5 0.2 2.6 -4.4 9.9 0.8 2.8 -0.5 2.5 0.9 3.3
2018
 -9.56 -11.26 2.4 -5.1 0.7 -1.1 3.5 -0.7 1.2 3.6 -2.5 -7.9 1.8 -5.1
2017
 +19.44 +16.97 2.5 4.3 -0.5 2.5 -0.3 -0.1 2.2 1.5 1.3 0.5 2.0 2.3
2016
 +17.09 +14.71 -0.8 7.4 4.3 3.2 -2.7 6.5 4.4 -1.8 0.4 -5.5 -0.1 1.4
2015
 -5.12 -5.80 4.3 -0.2 -0.6 -1.2 0.9 -2.4 -1.0 -3.7 -2.0 6.0 -1.7 -3.2
2014
 +12.32 +11.48 0.7 6.1 -1.3 -0.3 1.0 5.0 -4.4 4.6 -5.5 3.2 2.1 1.1
2013
 +17.56 +15.82 3.1 -0.1 4.1 -0.9 -1.0 -5.8 7.9 -2.7 5.0 4.9 2.6 0.1
2012
 +16.51 +14.51 9.9 0.3 0.9 0.5 -5.6 3.3 1.6 4.1 3.6 -3.4 1.0 0.0
2011
 +12.18 +8.95 -1.7 4.6 1.7 7.0 0.0 -2.9 3.4 3.7 -9.4 8.6 0.6 -3.0
2010
 - - 4.5 6.6 -3.7 -1.7 3.2 0.5 9.1 4.4 1.2 4.5

Portfolio efficiency

Compared to the Golden Butterfly 2x Leveraged Portfolio, the following portfolios granted a higher return over 10 Years and a less severe drawdown at the same time.

Swipe left to see all data
10 Years Stats (%)
% Allocation
Portfolio Author Return▾ Dev.Std Drawdown Stocks Bonds Comm
Technology +17.93 18.04 -32.58 100 0 0
Stocks/Bonds 60/40 with Bitcoin +16.93 37.56 -22.56 59 39 2
Golden Butterfly with Bitcoin +15.38 39.15 -23.09 40 40 20
Stocks/Bonds 40/60 with Bitcoin +15.16 38.23 -22.55 39 59 2
Permanent Portfolio with Bitcoin Harry Browne +14.93 40.55 -23.85 25 50 25
All Weather Portfolio with Bitcoin Ray Dalio +14.70 39.90 -23.45 30 55 15
Desert Portfolio with Bitcoin Gyroscopic Investing +14.44 38.82 -23.13 30 60 10
Cape US Sector Value Robert Shiller +13.25 15.46 -21.00 100 0 0
US Stocks +11.40 15.16 -24.81 100 0 0
US Stocks Momentum +11.37 15.22 -30.16 100 0 0
Warren Buffett Portfolio Warren Buffett +10.82 13.39 -23.08 90 10 0
Dedalo Three Dedalo Invest +10.41 14.91 -25.03 100 0 0
US Stocks Equal Weight +10.24 16.05 -26.65 100 0 0
US Stocks Minimum Volatility +10.21 12.08 -19.06 100 0 0
US Stocks ESG +9.62 15.71 -27.79 100 0 0
US Stocks Value +9.61 15.15 -26.06 100 0 0
Stocks/Bonds 80/20 Momentum +9.51 12.54 -27.23 80 20 0
Stocks/Bonds 80/20 +9.50 12.42 -22.75 80 20 0
Simple Path to Wealth JL Collins +9.02 11.75 -22.24 75 25 0
Dedalo Four Dedalo Invest +8.79 12.22 -22.61 80 20 0
Second Grader's Starter Paul Farrell +8.37 13.26 -24.21 90 10 0
Sheltered Sam 100/0 Bill Bernstein +8.14 14.48 -25.40 97 0 3
Edge Select Aggressive Merrill Lynch +8.08 12.57 -23.81 84 16 0
All Country World Stocks +8.04 14.61 -25.52 100 0 0
Robo Advisor 100 Betterment +7.68 14.64 -24.17 100 0 0
Golden Butterfly 2x Leveraged +7.67 15.24 -34.50 40 40 20

The following portfolios share asset allocation strategy and/or similar asset weights.

Swipe left to see all data
5 Years Stats (%)
% Allocation
Portfolio Author Return▾ Dev.Std Drawdown Stocks Bonds Comm
Golden Butterfly with Bitcoin +5.99 10.45 -18.74 40 40 20
Golden Butterfly Tyler +4.68 9.60 -17.79 40 40 20
Golden Butterfly 2x Leveraged +4.66 18.31 -34.50 40 40 20

Here's a list containing the Best Classic Portfolios, with the highest returns over 10 Years and High Risk categorization.

Swipe left to see all data
10 Years Stats (%)
% Allocation
Portfolio Author Return▾ Dev.Std Drawdown Stocks Bonds Comm
Simple Path to Wealth JL Collins +9.02 11.75 -22.24 75 25 0
Stocks/Bonds 60/40 Momentum +7.58 9.94 -24.21 60 40 0
Stocks/Bonds 60/40 +7.55 9.80 -20.69 60 40 0
Edge Select Moderately Aggressive Merrill Lynch +7.10 10.82 -22.31 69 31 0
Jane Bryant Quinn Portfolio Jane Bryant Quinn +6.75 10.82 -22.74 70 30 0