Golden Butterfly 2x Leveraged Portfolio: ETF allocation and returns

Data Source: from March 2010 to March 2024 (~14 years)
Consolidated Returns as of 31 March 2024
Live Update: Apr 12 2024
PORTFOLIO • LIVE PERFORMANCE (USD currency)
1.29%
1 Day
Apr 12 2024
2.78%
Current Month
April 2024

The Golden Butterfly 2x Leveraged Portfolio is a High Risk portfolio and can be implemented with 4 ETFs.

It's exposed for 40% on the Stock Market and for 20% on Commodities.

In the last 10 Years, the Golden Butterfly 2x Leveraged Portfolio obtained a 7.55% compound annual return, with a 15.87% standard deviation.

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Asset Allocation and ETFs

The Golden Butterfly 2x Leveraged Portfolio has the following asset allocation:

40% Stocks
40% Fixed Income
20% Commodities

The Golden Butterfly 2x Leveraged Portfolio can be implemented with the following ETFs:

Weight (%) Ticker Currency ETF Name Investment Themes
20.00
SAA
USD ProShares Ultra SmallCap600 2x, Equity, U.S.
20.00
SSO
USD ProShares Ultra S&P 500 2x, Equity, U.S., Large Cap
40.00
UST
USD ProShares Ultra 7-10 Year Treasury 2x, Bond, U.S., Intermediate-Term
20.00
UGL
USD ProShares Ultra Gold 2x, Commodity, Gold

Most of Lazy Portfolios are made of common components (asset classes), very simple and well defined. For a more complete view, find out the most common ETFs you can use to build your portfolio.

Portfolio and ETF Returns as of Mar 31, 2024

The Golden Butterfly 2x Leveraged Portfolio guaranteed the following returns.

Returns are calculated in USD, assuming: April 2024 return is calculated on the hypothesis of a newly built portfolio, with the starting asset allocation.
GOLDEN BUTTERFLY 2X LEVERAGED PORTFOLIO
Consolidated returns as of 31 March 2024
Live Update: Apr 12 2024
Swipe left to see all data
  Chg (%) Return (%) Return (%) as of Mar 31, 2024
  1 Day Time ET(*) Apr 2024 1M 6M 1Y 5Y 10Y MAX
(~14Y)
Golden Butterfly 2x Leveraged Portfolio -1.29 -2.78 6.48 25.51 13.60 7.71 7.55 11.13
US Inflation Adjusted return 6.07 23.53 9.78 3.38 4.59 8.30
Components
SAA
USD ProShares Ultra SmallCap600 -3.13 Apr 12 2024 -11.15 5.76 31.37 21.17 6.38 9.22 16.24
SSO
USD ProShares Ultra S&P 500 -2.82 Apr 12 2024 -4.98 6.02 45.83 55.07 21.78 19.94 22.65
UST
USD ProShares Ultra 7-10 Year Treasury 1.00 Apr 12 2024 -4.29 1.61 6.58 -9.38 -4.55 -0.32 2.48
UGL
USD ProShares Ultra Gold -2.52 Apr 12 2024 10.81 17.23 37.38 14.66 14.18 4.54 3.27
Returns over 1 year are annualized | Available data source: since Mar 2010
(*) Eastern Time (ET - America/New York)
US Inflation is updated to Mar 2024. Current inflation (annualized) is 1Y: 3.48% , 5Y: 4.19% , 10Y: 2.84%

In 2023, the Golden Butterfly 2x Leveraged Portfolio granted a 1.63% dividend yield. If you are interested in getting periodic income, please refer to the Golden Butterfly 2x Leveraged Portfolio: Dividend Yield page.

Capital Growth as of Mar 31, 2024

An investment of 1$, since April 2014, now would be worth 2.07$, with a total return of 107.14% (7.55% annualized).

The Inflation Adjusted Capital now would be 1.57$, with a net total return of 56.58% (4.59% annualized).
An investment of 1$, since March 2010, now would be worth 4.42$, with a total return of 341.90% (11.13% annualized).

The Inflation Adjusted Capital now would be 3.08$, with a net total return of 207.52% (8.30% annualized).

Portfolio Metrics as of Mar 31, 2024

Metrics of Golden Butterfly 2x Leveraged Portfolio, updated as of 31 March 2024.

Metrics are calculated based on monthly returns, assuming:
GOLDEN BUTTERFLY 2X LEVERAGED PORTFOLIO
Advanced Metrics
Data Source: 1 March 2010 - 31 March 2024 (~14 years)
Swipe left to see all data
Metrics as of Mar 31, 2024
1M 3M 6M 1Y 3Y 5Y 10Y MAX
(~14Y)
Investment Return (%) 6.48 5.20 25.51 13.60 0.40 7.71 7.55 11.13
Infl. Adjusted Return (%) details 6.07 4.03 23.53 9.78 -4.95 3.38 4.59 8.30
US Inflation (%) 0.38 1.13 1.61 3.48 5.63 4.19 2.84 2.61
Returns / Inflation rates over 1 year are annualized.
DRAWDOWN
Inflation Adjusted:
Inflation Adjusted:
1Y 3Y 5Y 10Y MAX
Deepest Drawdown Depth (%) -14.97 -34.50 -34.50 -34.50 -34.50
Start to Recovery (# months) details 5 27* 27* 27* 27*
Start (yyyy mm) 2023 08 2022 01 2022 01 2022 01 2022 01
Start to Bottom (# months) 3 9 9 9 9
Bottom (yyyy mm) 2023 10 2022 09 2022 09 2022 09 2022 09
Bottom to End (# months) 2 18 18 18 18
End (yyyy mm) 2023 12 - - - -
Longest Drawdown Depth (%)
same as
deepest

same as
deepest

same as
deepest

same as
deepest

same as
deepest
Start to Recovery (# months) details
Start (yyyy mm) 2023 08 2022 01 2022 01 2022 01 2022 01
Start to Bottom (# months) 3 9 9 9 9
Bottom (yyyy mm) 2023 10 2022 09 2022 09 2022 09 2022 09
Bottom to End (# months) 2 18 18 18 18
End (yyyy mm) 2023 12 - - - -
Longest negative period (# months) details 8 35 48 48 48
Period Start (yyyy mm) 2023 04 2021 04 2019 11 2019 11 2019 11
Period End (yyyy mm) 2023 11 2024 02 2023 10 2023 10 2023 10
Annualized Return (%) -2.65 -1.73 -0.22 -0.22 -0.22
Drawdowns / Negative periods marked with * are in progress
Deepest Drawdown Depth (%) -15.78 -38.05 -38.05 -38.05 -38.05
Start to Recovery (# months) details 5 31* 31* 31* 31*
Start (yyyy mm) 2023 08 2021 09 2021 09 2021 09 2021 09
Start to Bottom (# months) 3 13 13 13 13
Bottom (yyyy mm) 2023 10 2022 09 2022 09 2022 09 2022 09
Bottom to End (# months) 2 18 18 18 18
End (yyyy mm) 2023 12 - - - -
Longest Drawdown Depth (%)
same as
deepest

same as
deepest

same as
deepest

same as
deepest

same as
deepest
Start to Recovery (# months) details
Start (yyyy mm) 2023 08 2021 09 2021 09 2021 09 2021 09
Start to Bottom (# months) 3 13 13 13 13
Bottom (yyyy mm) 2023 10 2022 09 2022 09 2022 09 2022 09
Bottom to End (# months) 2 18 18 18 18
End (yyyy mm) 2023 12 - - - -
Longest negative period (# months) details 8 36* 55 78 78
Period Start (yyyy mm) 2023 04 2021 04 2019 04 2017 05 2017 05
Period End (yyyy mm) 2023 11 2024 03 2023 10 2023 10 2023 10
Annualized Return (%) -5.61 -4.95 -1.50 -0.09 -0.09
Drawdowns / Negative periods marked with * are in progress
RISK INDICATORS
1Y 3Y 5Y 10Y MAX
Standard Deviation (%) 19.64 21.32 19.26 15.87 15.37
Sharpe Ratio 0.43 -0.10 0.30 0.40 0.46
Sortino Ratio 0.63 -0.14 0.41 0.55 0.64
Ulcer Index 5.90 19.30 15.20 11.22 9.56
Ratio: Return / Standard Deviation 0.69 0.02 0.40 0.48 0.72
Ratio: Return / Deepest Drawdown 0.91 0.01 0.22 0.22 0.32
% Positive Months details 58% 52% 60% 58% 61%
Positive Months 7 19 36 70 104
Negative Months 5 17 24 50 65
LONG TERM RETURNS
Inflation Adjusted:
Inflation Adjusted:
1Y 3Y 5Y 10Y MAX
Best 10 Years Return (%) - Annualized 7.55 14.12
Worst 10 Years Return (%) - Annualized 5.74
Best 10 Years Return (%) - Annualized 4.59 12.15
Worst 10 Years Return (%) - Annualized 2.88
ROLLING PERIODS
Inflation Adjusted:
Inflation Adjusted:
1Y 3Y 5Y 10Y MAX
Over the latest 10Y
Best Rolling Return (%) - Annualized 35.01 22.76 15.05 7.55
Worst Rolling Return (%) - Annualized -29.16 -3.43 2.81
% Positive Periods 76% 88% 100% 100%
SWR - Safe Withdrawal Rate (%) - 100% Success - Annualized 77.76 28.44 21.89 13.23
PWR - Perpetual Withdrawal Rate (%) - 100% Success - Annualized - - - 4.78
WR calculated based on initial capital | Monthly withdrawals adjusted for inflation | Credits: BestRetirementPortfolio.com
Best Rolling Return (%) - Annualized 31.57 18.53 12.78 4.59
Worst Rolling Return (%) - Annualized -34.26 -8.66 -1.14
% Positive Periods 72% 77% 93% 100%
SWR - Safe Withdrawal Rate (%) - 100% Success - Annualized 77.76 28.44 21.89 13.23
PWR - Perpetual Withdrawal Rate (%) - 100% Success - Annualized - - - 4.78
WR calculated based on initial capital | Monthly withdrawals adjusted for inflation | Credits: BestRetirementPortfolio.com
Over all the available data source (Mar 2010 - Mar 2024)
Best Rolling Return (%) - Annualized 40.49 22.76 18.76 14.12
Worst Rolling Return (%) - Annualized -29.16 -3.43 2.81 5.74
% Positive Periods 83% 92% 100% 100%
SWR - Safe Withdrawal Rate (%) - 100% Success - Annualized 77.76 28.44 21.89 13.00
PWR - Perpetual Withdrawal Rate (%) - 100% Success - Annualized - - - 3.44
WR calculated based on initial capital | Monthly withdrawals adjusted for inflation | Credits: BestRetirementPortfolio.com
Best Rolling Return (%) - Annualized 35.40 18.53 16.88 12.15
Worst Rolling Return (%) - Annualized -34.26 -8.66 -1.14 2.88
% Positive Periods 81% 85% 96% 100%
SWR - Safe Withdrawal Rate (%) - 100% Success - Annualized 77.76 28.44 21.89 13.00
PWR - Perpetual Withdrawal Rate (%) - 100% Success - Annualized - - - 3.44
WR calculated based on initial capital | Monthly withdrawals adjusted for inflation | Credits: BestRetirementPortfolio.com
Terms and Definitions
  • Annualized Portfolio Return: it's the annualized geometric mean return of the portfolio.
  • Deepest/Longest Drawdown: a drawdown refers to the decline in value from a relative peak value to a relative trough. The deepest (or maximum) drawdown is the maximum observed loss from a peak to a trough of a portfolio before a new peak is attained. The longest drawdown is the period observed from a peak to the subsequent peak with the greatest duration.
  • Longest negative period: it's the maximum period for which an overall negative return has been observed.
  • Standard Deviation: it's a measure of the dispersion of returns around the mean.
  • Sharpe Ratio: it's a measure of risk-adjusted performance of the portfolio. It's calculated by dividing the excess return of the portfolio over the risk-free rate by the portfolio standard deviation. The risk-free rate here considered is the 1-3 Mth T-Bill return.
  • Sortino Ratio: another measure of risk-adjusted performance of the portfolio. It's a modification of the Sharpe Ratio (same formula but the denominator is the portfolio downside standard deviation).
  • Ulcer Index: it's a measure of downside risk that quantifies the depth and duration of drawdowns in an investment portfolio.
  • Best/Worst 10Y returns: the best and the worst 10-year return over a time frame.
  • Rolling Returns: N-year returns over a time frame, calculated over all the available data source (best, worst, % of positive returns). Each rolling period, longer than the longest negative period, yielded a non-negative minimum return.
  • Safe Withdrawal Rate (SWR): it's the percentage of the initial portfolio balance that can be withdrawn at the beginning of each month with inflation adjustment, without the portfolio running out of money in any case (money amount withdrawal).
    For instance: Your initial invested capital is 100.000$; withdrawal rate (annualized) is 4%. This means that, in the first month, you will withdraw 100.000 * 4% * 1/12 = 333.33$. The second month, you’ll withdraw 333.33$ plus the inflation monthly rate. You’ll continue adjusting your withdraw monthly for inflation.
  • Perpetual Withdrawal Rate (PWR): it's the percentage of the initial portfolio balance that can be withdrawn at the beginning of each month with inflation adjustment, preserving the original invested capital, adjusted for inflation too.

Portfolio Components Correlation

Correlation measures to what degree the returns of the two assets move in relation to each other.

Correlation coefficient is a numerical value between -1 and +1. If one variable goes up by a certain amount, the correlation coefficient indicates which way the other variable moves and by how much.
Asset correlations are calculated based on monthly returns.
COMPONENTS MONTHLY CORRELATIONS
Monthly correlations as of 31 March 2024
Swipe left to see all data

If you want to learn more about historical correlations, you can find out here how the main asset class are correlated to each other.

Drawdowns

A drawdown refers to the decline in value from a relative peak value to a relative trough. A maximum drawdown is the maximum observed loss from a peak to a trough of a portfolio before a new peak is attained.

GOLDEN BUTTERFLY 2X LEVERAGED PORTFOLIO
Drawdown periods
Drawdown periods - Inflation Adjusted
Data Source: 1 April 2014 - 31 March 2024 (10 Years)
Data Source: 1 March 2010 - 31 March 2024 (~14 years)
Inflation Adjusted:
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Rolling Returns

( more details)

A rolling return is a measure of investment performance that calculates the return of an investment over a set period of time, with the starting date rolling forward. This approach can provide a more accurate representation of the investment's historical performance and helps investors to evaluate the investment's consistency over time.

GOLDEN BUTTERFLY 2X LEVERAGED PORTFOLIO
Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Returns - Inflation Adjusted
Data Source: 1 April 2014 - 31 March 2024 (10 Years)
Data Source: 1 March 2010 - 31 March 2024 (~14 years)
Inflation Adjusted:

If you need a deeper detail about rolling returns, please refer to the Golden Butterfly 2x Leveraged Portfolio: Rolling Returns page.

Seasonality

In which months is it better to invest in Golden Butterfly 2x Leveraged Portfolio?

Both the Average Return and the Gain Frequency (Win %) are useful to get an idea of what happened in the past.
For further information about the seasonality, check the Asset Class Seasonality page.
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Monthly Returns

This section provides a visual/tabular representation of the performance variability in the Golden Butterfly 2x Leveraged Portfolio over time. It illustrates the distribution of monthly returns, showcasing the range and frequency of positive and negative returns.

GOLDEN BUTTERFLY 2X LEVERAGED PORTFOLIO
Monthly Returns Distribution
Data Source: 1 April 2014 - 31 March 2024 (10 Years)
Data Source: 1 March 2010 - 31 March 2024 (~14 years)
70 Positive Months (58%) - 50 Negative Months (42%)
104 Positive Months (62%) - 65 Negative Months (38%)
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(Scroll down to see all data)

Portfolio efficiency

The following portfolios granted a higher return over 10 Years and a less severe drawdown at the same time.

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In the following table, you can compare the current portfolio with a list of famous portfolios. Metrics are calculated over the last 10 Years.

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The following portfolios share asset allocation strategy and/or similar asset weights.

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