Aim Ways Gold Pivot Ptf To EUR Bond Hedged Portfolio: ETF allocation and returns

Data Source: from January 1985 to April 2024 (~39 years)
Consolidated Returns as of 30 April 2024
Currency: EUR

The Aim Ways Gold Pivot Ptf To EUR Bond Hedged Portfolio is a High Risk portfolio and can be implemented with 5 ETFs.

It's exposed for 22% on the Stock Market and for 34% on Commodities.

In the last 30 Years, the Aim Ways Gold Pivot Ptf To EUR Bond Hedged Portfolio obtained a 7.69% compound annual return, with a 7.66% standard deviation.

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About the Author

Hello. I am "AIM WAYS". I was bord in 1969; I live in Italy and I'm Italian; my name is Carmine.

For almost 15 years -I was not yet 21 years old- I was a tied-agent on behalf of a leading Italian asset management company. Thereafter, I abandoned single-mandate model, and for 13 years I was involved in straightforward consulting.

With changing regulations in the industry sector, in 2018 I decided to permanently abandon the classic 'Output-Economy' approach (focused on the placement of instruments) to face a new concept: financial coaching.

Challenge consists in being able to generate income revenues (for me), with value and full reward for the investor/prospect.

It is the cornerstone of the 'Outcome-Economy': a new 'ecosystem' in which, RELATIONSHIP (Advisory), is the main pillar, through major tool: 'Goal based investing'; my policy does NOT allow "recommenda- tions on financial instruments."

Basically, I focus on the 'CORE' stages of <Consulting Process>; that is: once the 'anamnesis' is taken and the correct 'therapy' (including 'dosage') is identified, it will then be the interactor -now sufficiently learned- to choose both 'pharmacy' and specific 'medicine'.

After all these years professionally engaged in personal finance, I still manage to be passionate about the world of investments.

Portfolio Overview

This portfolio is designed for a long-run strategy.

Reasoning behind this solution is to impact (and join) growth of economies, through an effective strategy WITHOUT concentrating too many asset-classes in the US.

I turned careful eye to 'PRESIDING' of volatility (with tolerable Standard Deviation) and SHARPE index, which measures payoff of the personal 'RISK' budget spent in the market.

The search for a fair level of decoupling, required the inevitable use of an appropriate contribution of GOLD as a stable commodity in the allocation.

This is NOT a one-size-fits-all strategy, nor can it be called 'LAZY' in the strictest sense. But, if you have understood benefits of 'Buying Time' and diversifying, and know you will NOT risk losing all your money, then we can sit down at a table....

Even if only to reason about it.

In hindsight, a not-so-traditional "Perpetual Withdrawal Rate" also emerged. But that was NOT part of the program.

Asset Allocation and ETFs

The Aim Ways Gold Pivot Ptf To EUR Bond Hedged Portfolio has the following asset allocation:

22% Stocks
44% Fixed Income
34% Commodities

The Aim Ways Gold Pivot Ptf To EUR Bond Hedged Portfolio can be implemented with the following ETFs:

Weight
(%)
Investment Themes (Orig.Currency) ETF
Ticker
ETF
Currency
ETF Name
16.00 Equity, U.S., Large Cap, Growth (USD)
SXRV.DE
EUR iShares Nasdaq 100
6.00 Equity, U.S., Large Cap (USD)
IBCK.DE
EUR iShares Edge S&P 500 Minimum Volatility
31.00 Fixed Income (Mix)
EUNA.DE
EUR
Hedged
iShares Core Global Aggregate Bond EUR Hedged
13.00 Bond, U.S., Intermediate-Term (USD)
UEEF.DE
EUR
Hedged
iShares USD High Yield Corporate Bond EUR Hedged
34.00 Commodity, Gold (USD)
PHAU
EUR WisdomTree Physical Gold

Most of Lazy Portfolios are made of common components (asset classes), very simple and well defined. For a more complete view, find out the most common ETFs you can use to build your portfolio.

Portfolio and ETF Returns as of Apr 30, 2024

The Aim Ways Gold Pivot Ptf To EUR Bond Hedged Portfolio guaranteed the following returns.

Returns are calculated in EUR, assuming:
  • no fees or capital gain taxes.
  • a rebalancing of the components at every January 1st. How do returns change with different rebalancing strategies?
  • the adjustment for actual currency exchange rates (simulation derived from original US returns)
  • the currency hedging (simulation taking into account the interest rate differentials of the countries). It is also assumed that hedged instruments have an additional expense ratio of 0.25% (yearly), compared to the US original instrument.
  • the actual Euro Inflation rates.
AIM WAYS GOLD PIVOT PTF TO EUR BOND HEDGED PORTFOLIO
Consolidated returns as of 30 April 2024
Swipe left to see all data
  Chg (%) Return (%) Return (%) as of Apr 30, 2024
  1 Day Time ET(*) May 2024 1M 6M 1Y 5Y 10Y 30Y MAX
(~39Y)
Aim Ways Gold Pivot Ptf To EUR Bond Hedged Portfolio n.a. n.a. 0.37 11.86 14.60 8.21 7.53 7.69 7.14
Euro Inflation Adjusted return -0.21 10.52 11.93 4.35 5.11 5.50 4.89
Components
SXRV.DE
EUR iShares Nasdaq 100 n.a. - n.a. -2.33 22.14 39.11 19.53 21.08 13.62 12.63
IBCK.DE
EUR iShares Edge S&P 500 Minimum Volatility n.a. - n.a. -2.22 16.18 15.21 10.18 13.12 10.15 9.90
EUNA.DE
EUR
Hedged
iShares Core Global Aggregate Bond EUR Hedged n.a. - n.a. -1.75 4.03 -0.08 -1.62 0.12 3.72 4.74
UEEF.DE
EUR
Hedged
iShares USD High Yield Corporate Bond EUR Hedged n.a. - n.a. -1.41 7.67 5.37 0.53 1.52 4.83 6.33
PHAU
EUR WisdomTree Physical Gold n.a. - n.a. 4.49 13.79 18.75 12.95 8.29 6.24 3.94
Returns over 1 year are annualized | Available data source: since Jan 1985
(*) Eastern Time (ET - America/New York)
Euro Inflation is updated to Apr 2024. Current inflation (annualized) is 1Y: 2.38% , 5Y: 3.70% , 10Y: 2.30% , 30Y: 2.07%

Capital Growth as of Apr 30, 2024

An investment of 1€, since May 1994, now would be worth 9.22€, with a total return of 821.85% (7.69% annualized).

The Inflation Adjusted Capital now would be 4.99€, with a net total return of 398.81% (5.50% annualized).
An investment of 1€, since January 1985, now would be worth 15.08€, with a total return of 1407.91% (7.14% annualized).

The Inflation Adjusted Capital now would be 6.53€, with a net total return of 552.90% (4.89% annualized).

Portfolio Metrics as of Apr 30, 2024

Metrics of Aim Ways Gold Pivot Ptf To EUR Bond Hedged Portfolio, updated as of 30 April 2024.

Metrics are calculated based on monthly returns, assuming:
  • no fees or capital gain taxes.
  • a rebalancing of the components at every January 1st. How do returns change with different rebalancing strategies?
  • the adjustment for actual currency exchange rates (simulation derived from original US returns)
  • the currency hedging (simulation taking into account the interest rate differentials of the countries). It is also assumed that hedged instruments have an additional expense ratio of 0.25% (yearly), compared to the US original instrument.
  • the actual Euro Inflation rates.
AIM WAYS GOLD PIVOT PTF TO EUR BOND HEDGED PORTFOLIO
Advanced Metrics
Data Source: 1 January 1985 - 30 April 2024 (~39 years)
Swipe left to see all data
Metrics as of Apr 30, 2024
1M 3M 6M 1Y 3Y 5Y 10Y 20Y 30Y MAX
(~39Y)
Investment Return (%) 0.37 4.88 11.86 14.60 6.39 8.21 7.53 7.80 7.69 7.14
Infl. Adjusted Return (%) details -0.21 2.85 10.52 11.93 0.78 4.35 5.11 5.57 5.50 4.89
Euro Inflation (%) 0.58 1.98 1.21 2.38 5.57 3.70 2.30 2.11 2.07 2.15
Returns / Inflation rates over 1 year are annualized.
DRAWDOWN
Inflation Adjusted:
Inflation Adjusted:
1Y 3Y 5Y 10Y 20Y 30Y MAX
Deepest Drawdown Depth (%) -1.93 -9.23 -9.23 -9.23 -10.19 -17.41 -19.06
Start to Recovery (# months) details 3 23 23 23 23 58 21
Start (yyyy mm) 2023 09 2022 01 2022 01 2022 01 2012 10 2000 09 1989 09
Start to Bottom (# months) 1 12 12 12 9 23 14
Bottom (yyyy mm) 2023 09 2022 12 2022 12 2022 12 2013 06 2002 07 1990 10
Bottom to End (# months) 2 11 11 11 14 35 7
End (yyyy mm) 2023 11 2023 11 2023 11 2023 11 2014 08 2005 06 1991 05
Longest Drawdown Depth (%)
same as
deepest

same as
deepest

same as
deepest

same as
deepest
-9.23
same as
deepest
-17.41
Start to Recovery (# months) details 23 58
Start (yyyy mm) 2023 09 2022 01 2022 01 2022 01 2022 01 2000 09 2000 09
Start to Bottom (# months) 1 12 12 12 12 23 23
Bottom (yyyy mm) 2023 09 2022 12 2022 12 2022 12 2022 12 2002 07 2002 07
Bottom to End (# months) 2 11 11 11 11 35 35
End (yyyy mm) 2023 11 2023 11 2023 11 2023 11 2023 11 2005 06 2005 06
Longest negative period (# months) details 5 23 29 29 30 62 69
Period Start (yyyy mm) 2023 06 2021 12 2020 08 2020 08 2006 05 2000 03 1985 02
Period End (yyyy mm) 2023 10 2023 10 2022 12 2022 12 2008 10 2005 04 1990 10
Annualized Return (%) -0.49 -0.04 -0.24 -0.24 -0.34 -0.07 -0.02
Deepest Drawdown Depth (%) -2.74 -16.88 -16.88 -16.88 -16.88 -20.94 -22.90
Start to Recovery (# months) details 4 28* 28* 28* 28* 65 40
Start (yyyy mm) 2023 08 2022 01 2022 01 2022 01 2022 01 2000 09 1989 09
Start to Bottom (# months) 2 12 12 12 12 23 14
Bottom (yyyy mm) 2023 09 2022 12 2022 12 2022 12 2022 12 2002 07 1990 10
Bottom to End (# months) 2 16 16 16 16 42 26
End (yyyy mm) 2023 11 - - - - 2006 01 1992 12
Longest Drawdown Depth (%)
same as
deepest

same as
deepest

same as
deepest

same as
deepest

same as
deepest

same as
deepest
-20.94
Start to Recovery (# months) details 65
Start (yyyy mm) 2023 08 2022 01 2022 01 2022 01 2022 01 2000 09 2000 09
Start to Bottom (# months) 2 12 12 12 12 23 23
Bottom (yyyy mm) 2023 09 2022 12 2022 12 2022 12 2022 12 2002 07 2002 07
Bottom to End (# months) 2 16 16 16 16 42 42
End (yyyy mm) 2023 11 - - - - 2006 01 2006 01
Longest negative period (# months) details 5 34 45 45 45 104 104
Period Start (yyyy mm) 2023 06 2021 05 2020 02 2020 02 2020 02 2000 03 2000 03
Period End (yyyy mm) 2023 10 2024 02 2023 10 2023 10 2023 10 2008 10 2008 10
Annualized Return (%) -3.14 -0.15 -0.66 -0.66 -0.66 -0.11 -0.11
Drawdowns / Negative periods marked with * are in progress
RISK INDICATORS
1Y 3Y 5Y 10Y 20Y 30Y MAX
Standard Deviation (%) 5.36 6.96 7.03 6.64 6.76 7.66 8.24
Sharpe Ratio 1.74 0.54 0.89 0.94 0.95 0.71 0.38
Sortino Ratio 2.41 0.74 1.25 1.41 1.37 1.00 0.54
Ulcer Index 0.60 3.72 3.04 2.55 2.65 4.74 5.21
Ratio: Return / Standard Deviation 2.72 0.92 1.17 1.13 1.15 1.00 0.87
Ratio: Return / Deepest Drawdown 7.58 0.69 0.89 0.82 0.77 0.44 0.37
% Positive Months details 83% 63% 65% 60% 64% 62% 61%
Positive Months 10 23 39 72 154 226 291
Negative Months 2 13 21 48 86 134 181
LONG TERM RETURNS
Inflation Adjusted:
Inflation Adjusted:
1Y 3Y 5Y 10Y 20Y 30Y MAX
Best 10 Years Return (%) - Annualized 7.53 9.75 9.75 13.06
Worst 10 Years Return (%) - Annualized 5.14 4.64 4.28
Best 10 Years Return (%) - Annualized 5.11 7.88 7.88 10.42
Worst 10 Years Return (%) - Annualized 3.19 2.59 1.86
ROLLING PERIODS
Inflation Adjusted:
Inflation Adjusted:
1Y 3Y 5Y 10Y 20Y 30Y MAX
Over the latest 30Y
Best Rolling Return (%) - Annualized 32.80 18.26 16.86 9.75 8.89 7.69
Worst Rolling Return (%) - Annualized -13.46 -4.13 -0.12 4.64 6.02
% Positive Periods 83% 96% 99% 100% 100% 100%
SWR - Safe Withdrawal Rate (%) - 100% Success - Annualized 90.56 28.55 17.24 9.49 6.14 7.09
PWR - Perpetual Withdrawal Rate (%) - 100% Success - Annualized - - - 2.18 3.55 5.67
WR calculated based on initial capital | Monthly withdrawals adjusted for inflation | Credits: BestRetirementPortfolio.com
Best Rolling Return (%) - Annualized 30.14 16.70 15.01 7.88 6.95 5.50
Worst Rolling Return (%) - Annualized -16.88 -6.34 -2.25 2.59 4.29
% Positive Periods 75% 87% 96% 100% 100% 100%
SWR - Safe Withdrawal Rate (%) - 100% Success - Annualized 90.56 28.55 17.24 9.49 6.14 7.09
PWR - Perpetual Withdrawal Rate (%) - 100% Success - Annualized - - - 2.18 3.55 5.67
WR calculated based on initial capital | Monthly withdrawals adjusted for inflation | Credits: BestRetirementPortfolio.com
Over all the available data source (Jan 1985 - Apr 2024)
Best Rolling Return (%) - Annualized 33.35 18.26 16.86 13.06 9.47 8.64
Worst Rolling Return (%) - Annualized -16.34 -4.13 -0.12 4.28 6.02 7.11
% Positive Periods 79% 96% 99% 100% 100% 100%
SWR - Safe Withdrawal Rate (%) - 100% Success - Annualized 89.82 28.55 17.24 9.49 6.14 5.54
PWR - Perpetual Withdrawal Rate (%) - 100% Success - Annualized - - - 1.83 3.55 4.25
WR calculated based on initial capital | Monthly withdrawals adjusted for inflation | Credits: BestRetirementPortfolio.com
Best Rolling Return (%) - Annualized 30.14 16.70 15.01 10.42 7.21 6.66
Worst Rolling Return (%) - Annualized -19.97 -6.34 -2.25 1.86 3.91 4.97
% Positive Periods 72% 85% 94% 100% 100% 100%
SWR - Safe Withdrawal Rate (%) - 100% Success - Annualized 89.82 28.55 17.24 9.49 6.14 5.54
PWR - Perpetual Withdrawal Rate (%) - 100% Success - Annualized - - - 1.83 3.55 4.25
WR calculated based on initial capital | Monthly withdrawals adjusted for inflation | Credits: BestRetirementPortfolio.com
Terms and Definitions
  • Annualized Portfolio Return: it's the annualized geometric mean return of the portfolio.
  • Deepest/Longest Drawdown: a drawdown refers to the decline in value from a relative peak value to a relative trough. The deepest (or maximum) drawdown is the maximum observed loss from a peak to a trough of a portfolio before a new peak is attained. The longest drawdown is the period observed from a peak to the subsequent peak with the greatest duration.
  • Longest negative period: it's the maximum period for which an overall negative return has been observed.
  • Standard Deviation: it's a measure of the dispersion of returns around the mean.
  • Sharpe Ratio: it's a measure of risk-adjusted performance of the portfolio. It's calculated by dividing the excess return of the portfolio over the risk-free rate by the portfolio standard deviation. The risk-free rate here considered is the 1-3 Mth T-Bill return.
  • Sortino Ratio: another measure of risk-adjusted performance of the portfolio. It's a modification of the Sharpe Ratio (same formula but the denominator is the portfolio downside standard deviation).
  • Ulcer Index: it's a measure of downside risk that quantifies the depth and duration of drawdowns in an investment portfolio.
  • Best/Worst 10Y returns: the best and the worst 10-year return over a time frame.
  • Rolling Returns: N-year returns over a time frame, calculated over all the available data source (best, worst, % of positive returns). Each rolling period, longer than the longest negative period, yielded a non-negative minimum return.
  • Safe Withdrawal Rate (SWR): it's the percentage of the initial portfolio balance that can be withdrawn at the beginning of each month with inflation adjustment, without the portfolio running out of money in any case (money amount withdrawal).
    For instance: Your initial invested capital is 100.000$; withdrawal rate (annualized) is 4%. This means that, in the first month, you will withdraw 100.000 * 4% * 1/12 = 333.33$. The second month, you’ll withdraw 333.33$ plus the inflation monthly rate. You’ll continue adjusting your withdraw monthly for inflation.
  • Perpetual Withdrawal Rate (PWR): it's the percentage of the initial portfolio balance that can be withdrawn at the beginning of each month with inflation adjustment, preserving the original invested capital, adjusted for inflation too.

Portfolio Components Correlation

Correlation measures to what degree the returns of the two assets move in relation to each other.

Correlation coefficient is a numerical value between -1 and +1. If one variable goes up by a certain amount, the correlation coefficient indicates which way the other variable moves and by how much.
Asset correlations are calculated based on monthly returns.
COMPONENTS MONTHLY CORRELATIONS
Monthly correlations as of 30 April 2024
Swipe left to see all data

If you want to learn more about historical correlations, you can find out here how the main asset class are correlated to each other.

Drawdowns

A drawdown refers to the decline in value from a relative peak value to a relative trough. A maximum drawdown is the maximum observed loss from a peak to a trough of a portfolio before a new peak is attained.

AIM WAYS GOLD PIVOT PTF TO EUR BOND HEDGED PORTFOLIO
Drawdown periods
Drawdown periods - Inflation Adjusted
Data Source: 1 May 1994 - 30 April 2024 (30 Years)
Data Source: 1 January 1985 - 30 April 2024 (~39 years)
Inflation Adjusted:
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Rolling Returns

( more details)

A rolling return is a measure of investment performance that calculates the return of an investment over a set period of time, with the starting date rolling forward. This approach can provide a more accurate representation of the investment's historical performance and helps investors to evaluate the investment's consistency over time.

AIM WAYS GOLD PIVOT PTF TO EUR BOND HEDGED PORTFOLIO
Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Returns - Inflation Adjusted
Data Source: 1 May 1994 - 30 April 2024 (30 Years)
Data Source: 1 January 1985 - 30 April 2024 (~39 years)
Inflation Adjusted:

If you need a deeper detail about rolling returns, please refer to the Aim Ways Gold Pivot Ptf To EUR Bond Hedged Portfolio: Rolling Returns page.

Seasonality

In which months is it better to invest in Aim Ways Gold Pivot Ptf To EUR Bond Hedged Portfolio?

Both the Average Return and the Gain Frequency (Win %) are useful to get an idea of what happened in the past.
For further information about the seasonality, check the Asset Class Seasonality page.
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Monthly Returns

This section provides a visual/tabular representation of the performance variability in the Aim Ways Gold Pivot Ptf To EUR Bond Hedged Portfolio over time. It illustrates the distribution of monthly returns, showcasing the range and frequency of positive and negative returns.

AIM WAYS GOLD PIVOT PTF TO EUR BOND HEDGED PORTFOLIO
Monthly Returns Distribution
Data Source: 1 May 1994 - 30 April 2024 (30 Years)
Data Source: 1 January 1985 - 30 April 2024 (~39 years)
226 Positive Months (63%) - 134 Negative Months (37%)
291 Positive Months (62%) - 181 Negative Months (38%)
Swipe left to see all data
(Scroll down to see all data)
Investment Returns, up to August 2020, have been derived using the historical series of equivalent ETFs / Assets, instead of the actual ETFs of the portfolio.
You can find additional information on extended Data Sources here.

Returns are calculated based on the performance of the original US asset, adjusted for actual currency exchange rates.
Hedged returns are calculated taking into account the interest rate differentials of the countries. It is assumed that hedged instruments have an additional expense ratio of 0.25% (yearly).

In particular, the series derived from equivalent datasets are:
  • SXRV.DE - iShares Nasdaq 100 (SXRV.DE), up to June 2010
  • IBCK.DE - iShares Edge S&P 500 Minimum Volatility (IBCK.DE), up to April 2014
  • EUNA.DE - iShares Core Global Aggregate Bond EUR Hedged (EUNA.DE), up to December 2017
  • UEEF.DE - iShares USD High Yield Corporate Bond EUR Hedged (UEEF.DE), up to August 2020
  • PHAU - WisdomTree Physical Gold (PHAU), up to January 2008
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