Craig Israelsen 7Twelve Portfolio To EUR Bond Hedged: ETF allocation and returns

Data Source: from January 1976 to April 2024 (~48 years)
Consolidated Returns as of 30 April 2024
Currency: EUR

The Craig Israelsen 7Twelve Portfolio To EUR Bond Hedged is a High Risk portfolio and can be implemented with 8 ETFs.

It's exposed for 50% on the Stock Market and for 16.66% on Commodities.

In the last 30 Years, the Craig Israelsen 7Twelve Portfolio To EUR Bond Hedged obtained a 6.97% compound annual return, with a 8.93% standard deviation.

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Asset Allocation and ETFs

The Craig Israelsen 7Twelve Portfolio To EUR Bond Hedged has the following asset allocation:

50% Stocks
33.34% Fixed Income
16.66% Commodities

The Craig Israelsen 7Twelve Portfolio To EUR Bond Hedged can be implemented with the following ETFs:

Weight
(%)
Investment Themes (Orig.Currency) ETF
Ticker
ETF
Currency
ETF Name
16.67 Stocks (Mix)
EUNL.DE
EUR iShares Core MSCI World
8.34 Real Estate, U.S. (USD)
IQQ7.DE
EUR iShares US Property Yield
8.33 Equity, Emerging Markets, Large Cap (USD)
IS3N.DE
EUR iShares Core MSCI Emerg. Markets
8.33 Equity, U.S., Mid Cap (USD)
SPY4.DE
EUR SPDR S&P 400 US Mid Cap
8.33 Equity, U.S., Small Cap (USD)
ZPRR.DE
EUR SPDR Russell 2000 US Small Cap
25.00 Bond, U.S., Intermediate-Term (USD)
CBUE.DE
EUR
Hedged
iShares USD Treasury Bond 3-7yr Eur Hedged
8.34 Bond, U.S., Ultra Short-Term (USD)
PR1H.DE
EUR
Hedged
Amundi US Treasury Bond 0-1Y EUR Hedged
16.66 Commodity, Broad Diversified (USD)
UIQK.DE
EUR UBS CMCI Composite SF

Most of Lazy Portfolios are made of common components (asset classes), very simple and well defined. For a more complete view, find out the most common ETFs you can use to build your portfolio.

Portfolio and ETF Returns as of Apr 30, 2024

The Craig Israelsen 7Twelve Portfolio To EUR Bond Hedged guaranteed the following returns.

Returns are calculated in EUR, assuming:
  • no fees or capital gain taxes.
  • a rebalancing of the components at every January 1st. How do returns change with different rebalancing strategies?
  • the adjustment for actual currency exchange rates (simulation derived from original US returns)
  • the currency hedging (simulation taking into account the interest rate differentials of the countries). It is also assumed that hedged instruments have an additional expense ratio of 0.25% (yearly), compared to the US original instrument.
  • the actual Euro Inflation rates.
CRAIG ISRAELSEN 7TWELVE PORTFOLIO TO EUR BOND HEDGED
Consolidated returns as of 30 April 2024
Swipe left to see all data
  Chg (%) Return (%) Return (%) as of Apr 30, 2024
  1 Day Time ET(*) May 2024 1M 6M 1Y 5Y 10Y 30Y MAX
(~48Y)
Craig Israelsen 7Twelve Portfolio To EUR Bond Hedged n.a. n.a. -1.17 10.23 10.19 5.99 5.82 6.97 8.94
Euro Inflation Adjusted return -1.74 8.91 7.63 2.20 3.44 4.81 6.29
Components
EUNL.DE
EUR iShares Core MSCI World n.a. - n.a. -2.05 20.05 23.44 11.77 11.93 7.59 8.41
IQQ7.DE
EUR iShares US Property Yield n.a. - n.a. -4.65 13.08 4.46 1.97 6.74 8.10 11.46
IS3N.DE
EUR iShares Core MSCI Emerg. Markets n.a. - n.a. 1.50 15.14 14.34 3.66 5.83 5.48 7.95
SPY4.DE
EUR SPDR S&P 400 US Mid Cap n.a. - n.a. -4.18 21.61 21.18 10.16 11.91 11.14 13.25
ZPRR.DE
EUR SPDR Russell 2000 US Small Cap n.a. - n.a. -5.69 19.33 17.29 6.65 9.62 9.67 12.95
CBUE.DE
EUR
Hedged
iShares USD Treasury Bond 3-7yr Eur Hedged n.a. - n.a. -1.86 1.77 -2.95 -1.74 -0.59 3.51 5.10
PR1H.DE
EUR
Hedged
Amundi US Treasury Bond 0-1Y EUR Hedged n.a. - n.a. 0.33 1.81 3.25 0.19 -0.20 1.57 3.06
UIQK.DE
EUR UBS CMCI Composite SF n.a. - n.a. 4.17 3.07 12.13 11.99 4.09 5.10 6.99
Returns over 1 year are annualized | Available data source: since Jan 1976
(*) Eastern Time (ET - America/New York)
Euro Inflation is updated to Apr 2024. Current inflation (annualized) is 1Y: 2.38% , 5Y: 3.70% , 10Y: 2.30% , 30Y: 2.07%

Capital Growth as of Apr 30, 2024

An investment of 1€, since May 1994, now would be worth 7.56€, with a total return of 655.54% (6.97% annualized).

The Inflation Adjusted Capital now would be 4.09€, with a net total return of 308.82% (4.81% annualized).
An investment of 1€, since January 1976, now would be worth 62.85€, with a total return of 6185.01% (8.94% annualized).

The Inflation Adjusted Capital now would be 19.05€, with a net total return of 1804.92% (6.29% annualized).

Portfolio Metrics as of Apr 30, 2024

Metrics of Craig Israelsen 7Twelve Portfolio To EUR Bond Hedged, updated as of 30 April 2024.

Metrics are calculated based on monthly returns, assuming:
  • no fees or capital gain taxes.
  • a rebalancing of the components at every January 1st. How do returns change with different rebalancing strategies?
  • the adjustment for actual currency exchange rates (simulation derived from original US returns)
  • the currency hedging (simulation taking into account the interest rate differentials of the countries). It is also assumed that hedged instruments have an additional expense ratio of 0.25% (yearly), compared to the US original instrument.
  • the actual Euro Inflation rates.
CRAIG ISRAELSEN 7TWELVE PORTFOLIO TO EUR BOND HEDGED
Advanced Metrics
Data Source: 1 January 1976 - 30 April 2024 (~48 years)
Swipe left to see all data
Metrics as of Apr 30, 2024
1M 3M 6M 1Y 3Y 5Y 10Y 20Y 30Y MAX
(~48Y)
Investment Return (%) -1.17 2.78 10.23 10.19 4.63 5.99 5.82 6.05 6.97 8.94
Infl. Adjusted Return (%) details -1.74 0.79 8.91 7.63 -0.89 2.20 3.44 3.86 4.81 6.29
Euro Inflation (%) 0.58 1.98 1.21 2.38 5.57 3.70 2.30 2.11 2.07 2.50
Returns / Inflation rates over 1 year are annualized.
DRAWDOWN
Inflation Adjusted:
Inflation Adjusted:
1Y 3Y 5Y 10Y 20Y 30Y MAX
Deepest Drawdown Depth (%) -4.56 -7.73 -14.54 -14.54 -26.32 -26.32 -26.32
Start to Recovery (# months) details 5 22 12 12 29 29 29
Start (yyyy mm) 2023 08 2022 05 2020 01 2020 01 2007 11 2007 11 2007 11
Start to Bottom (# months) 3 8 3 3 16 16 16
Bottom (yyyy mm) 2023 10 2022 12 2020 03 2020 03 2009 02 2009 02 2009 02
Bottom to End (# months) 2 14 9 9 13 13 13
End (yyyy mm) 2023 12 2024 02 2020 12 2020 12 2010 03 2010 03 2010 03
Longest Drawdown Depth (%)
same as
deepest

same as
deepest
-7.73 -7.73
same as
deepest
-14.37 -14.37
Start to Recovery (# months) details 22 22 32 32
Start (yyyy mm) 2023 08 2022 05 2022 05 2022 05 2007 11 2001 06 2001 06
Start to Bottom (# months) 3 8 8 8 16 22 22
Bottom (yyyy mm) 2023 10 2022 12 2022 12 2022 12 2009 02 2003 03 2003 03
Bottom to End (# months) 2 14 14 14 13 10 10
End (yyyy mm) 2023 12 2024 02 2024 02 2024 02 2010 03 2004 01 2004 01
Longest negative period (# months) details 6 26 26 60 60 60 60
Period Start (yyyy mm) 2023 05 2021 09 2021 09 2015 04 2015 04 2015 04 2015 04
Period End (yyyy mm) 2023 10 2023 10 2023 10 2020 03 2020 03 2020 03 2020 03
Annualized Return (%) -0.07 -0.46 -0.46 -0.32 -0.32 -0.32 -0.32
Deepest Drawdown Depth (%) -5.46 -16.56 -16.56 -16.56 -27.83 -27.83 -27.83
Start to Recovery (# months) details 5 28* 28* 28* 37 37 37
Start (yyyy mm) 2023 08 2022 01 2022 01 2022 01 2007 11 2007 11 2007 11
Start to Bottom (# months) 3 22 22 22 16 16 16
Bottom (yyyy mm) 2023 10 2023 10 2023 10 2023 10 2009 02 2009 02 2009 02
Bottom to End (# months) 2 6 6 6 21 21 21
End (yyyy mm) 2023 12 - - - 2010 11 2010 11 2010 11
Longest Drawdown Depth (%)
same as
deepest

same as
deepest

same as
deepest

same as
deepest

same as
deepest
-18.95 -18.95
Start to Recovery (# months) details 54 54
Start (yyyy mm) 2023 08 2022 01 2022 01 2022 01 2007 11 2000 09 2000 09
Start to Bottom (# months) 3 22 22 22 16 31 31
Bottom (yyyy mm) 2023 10 2023 10 2023 10 2023 10 2009 02 2003 03 2003 03
Bottom to End (# months) 2 6 6 6 21 23 23
End (yyyy mm) 2023 12 - - - 2010 11 2005 02 2005 02
Longest negative period (# months) details 6 36* 47 62 62 108 108
Period Start (yyyy mm) 2023 05 2021 05 2019 12 2015 02 2015 02 2000 03 2000 03
Period End (yyyy mm) 2023 10 2024 04 2023 10 2020 03 2020 03 2009 02 2009 02
Annualized Return (%) -2.34 -0.89 -0.25 -0.56 -0.56 -0.12 -0.12
Drawdowns / Negative periods marked with * are in progress
RISK INDICATORS
1Y 3Y 5Y 10Y 20Y 30Y MAX
Standard Deviation (%) 6.69 8.01 9.18 8.32 8.38 8.93 9.46
Sharpe Ratio 0.73 0.25 0.44 0.55 0.56 0.53 0.52
Sortino Ratio 0.99 0.34 0.57 0.73 0.75 0.72 0.71
Ulcer Index 1.50 3.86 4.52 4.20 5.47 5.58 5.24
Ratio: Return / Standard Deviation 1.52 0.58 0.65 0.70 0.72 0.78 0.95
Ratio: Return / Deepest Drawdown 2.23 0.60 0.41 0.40 0.23 0.26 0.34
% Positive Months details 58% 55% 58% 57% 62% 62% 63%
Positive Months 7 20 35 69 149 224 366
Negative Months 5 16 25 51 91 136 214
LONG TERM RETURNS
Inflation Adjusted:
Inflation Adjusted:
1Y 3Y 5Y 10Y 20Y 30Y MAX
Best 10 Years Return (%) - Annualized 5.82 8.76 10.82 14.99
Worst 10 Years Return (%) - Annualized 4.44 3.87 3.87
Best 10 Years Return (%) - Annualized 3.44 7.41 8.72 12.30
Worst 10 Years Return (%) - Annualized 2.67 1.80 1.80
ROLLING PERIODS
Inflation Adjusted:
Inflation Adjusted:
1Y 3Y 5Y 10Y 20Y 30Y MAX
Over the latest 30Y
Best Rolling Return (%) - Annualized 39.82 19.70 17.19 10.82 8.97 6.97
Worst Rolling Return (%) - Annualized -23.24 -7.45 -0.32 3.87 4.58
% Positive Periods 77% 92% 99% 100% 100% 100%
SWR - Safe Withdrawal Rate (%) - 100% Success - Annualized 84.59 29.73 18.61 10.14 6.12 7.05
PWR - Perpetual Withdrawal Rate (%) - 100% Success - Annualized - - - 1.66 2.71 5.33
WR calculated based on initial capital | Monthly withdrawals adjusted for inflation | Credits: BestRetirementPortfolio.com
Best Rolling Return (%) - Annualized 37.17 17.69 15.30 8.72 7.03 4.81
Worst Rolling Return (%) - Annualized -24.13 -9.34 -1.95 1.80 2.94
% Positive Periods 71% 87% 98% 100% 100% 100%
SWR - Safe Withdrawal Rate (%) - 100% Success - Annualized 84.59 29.73 18.61 10.14 6.12 7.05
PWR - Perpetual Withdrawal Rate (%) - 100% Success - Annualized - - - 1.66 2.71 5.33
WR calculated based on initial capital | Monthly withdrawals adjusted for inflation | Credits: BestRetirementPortfolio.com
Over all the available data source (Jan 1976 - Apr 2024)
Best Rolling Return (%) - Annualized 43.79 24.92 20.83 14.99 13.42 11.24
Worst Rolling Return (%) - Annualized -23.24 -7.45 -0.32 3.87 4.58 6.57
% Positive Periods 81% 95% 99% 100% 100% 100%
SWR - Safe Withdrawal Rate (%) - 100% Success - Annualized 84.59 29.73 18.61 10.14 6.12 6.40
PWR - Perpetual Withdrawal Rate (%) - 100% Success - Annualized - - - 1.66 2.71 4.69
WR calculated based on initial capital | Monthly withdrawals adjusted for inflation | Credits: BestRetirementPortfolio.com
Best Rolling Return (%) - Annualized 39.79 21.20 16.08 12.30 10.54 8.28
Worst Rolling Return (%) - Annualized -24.13 -9.34 -1.95 1.80 2.94 4.40
% Positive Periods 74% 91% 99% 100% 100% 100%
SWR - Safe Withdrawal Rate (%) - 100% Success - Annualized 84.59 29.73 18.61 10.14 6.12 6.40
PWR - Perpetual Withdrawal Rate (%) - 100% Success - Annualized - - - 1.66 2.71 4.69
WR calculated based on initial capital | Monthly withdrawals adjusted for inflation | Credits: BestRetirementPortfolio.com
Terms and Definitions
  • Annualized Portfolio Return: it's the annualized geometric mean return of the portfolio.
  • Deepest/Longest Drawdown: a drawdown refers to the decline in value from a relative peak value to a relative trough. The deepest (or maximum) drawdown is the maximum observed loss from a peak to a trough of a portfolio before a new peak is attained. The longest drawdown is the period observed from a peak to the subsequent peak with the greatest duration.
  • Longest negative period: it's the maximum period for which an overall negative return has been observed.
  • Standard Deviation: it's a measure of the dispersion of returns around the mean.
  • Sharpe Ratio: it's a measure of risk-adjusted performance of the portfolio. It's calculated by dividing the excess return of the portfolio over the risk-free rate by the portfolio standard deviation. The risk-free rate here considered is the 1-3 Mth T-Bill return.
  • Sortino Ratio: another measure of risk-adjusted performance of the portfolio. It's a modification of the Sharpe Ratio (same formula but the denominator is the portfolio downside standard deviation).
  • Ulcer Index: it's a measure of downside risk that quantifies the depth and duration of drawdowns in an investment portfolio.
  • Best/Worst 10Y returns: the best and the worst 10-year return over a time frame.
  • Rolling Returns: N-year returns over a time frame, calculated over all the available data source (best, worst, % of positive returns). Each rolling period, longer than the longest negative period, yielded a non-negative minimum return.
  • Safe Withdrawal Rate (SWR): it's the percentage of the initial portfolio balance that can be withdrawn at the beginning of each month with inflation adjustment, without the portfolio running out of money in any case (money amount withdrawal).
    For instance: Your initial invested capital is 100.000$; withdrawal rate (annualized) is 4%. This means that, in the first month, you will withdraw 100.000 * 4% * 1/12 = 333.33$. The second month, you’ll withdraw 333.33$ plus the inflation monthly rate. You’ll continue adjusting your withdraw monthly for inflation.
  • Perpetual Withdrawal Rate (PWR): it's the percentage of the initial portfolio balance that can be withdrawn at the beginning of each month with inflation adjustment, preserving the original invested capital, adjusted for inflation too.

Portfolio Components Correlation

Correlation measures to what degree the returns of the two assets move in relation to each other.

Correlation coefficient is a numerical value between -1 and +1. If one variable goes up by a certain amount, the correlation coefficient indicates which way the other variable moves and by how much.
Asset correlations are calculated based on monthly returns.
COMPONENTS MONTHLY CORRELATIONS
Monthly correlations as of 30 April 2024
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If you want to learn more about historical correlations, you can find out here how the main asset class are correlated to each other.

Drawdowns

A drawdown refers to the decline in value from a relative peak value to a relative trough. A maximum drawdown is the maximum observed loss from a peak to a trough of a portfolio before a new peak is attained.

CRAIG ISRAELSEN 7TWELVE PORTFOLIO TO EUR BOND HEDGED
Drawdown periods
Drawdown periods - Inflation Adjusted
Data Source: 1 May 1994 - 30 April 2024 (30 Years)
Data Source: 1 January 1976 - 30 April 2024 (~48 years)
Inflation Adjusted:
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Rolling Returns

( more details)

A rolling return is a measure of investment performance that calculates the return of an investment over a set period of time, with the starting date rolling forward. This approach can provide a more accurate representation of the investment's historical performance and helps investors to evaluate the investment's consistency over time.

CRAIG ISRAELSEN 7TWELVE PORTFOLIO TO EUR BOND HEDGED
Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Returns - Inflation Adjusted
Data Source: 1 May 1994 - 30 April 2024 (30 Years)
Data Source: 1 January 1976 - 30 April 2024 (~48 years)
Inflation Adjusted:

If you need a deeper detail about rolling returns, please refer to the Craig Israelsen 7Twelve Portfolio To EUR Bond Hedged: Rolling Returns page.

Seasonality

In which months is it better to invest in Craig Israelsen 7Twelve Portfolio To EUR Bond Hedged?

Both the Average Return and the Gain Frequency (Win %) are useful to get an idea of what happened in the past.
For further information about the seasonality, check the Asset Class Seasonality page.
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Monthly Returns

This section provides a visual/tabular representation of the performance variability in the Craig Israelsen 7Twelve Portfolio To EUR Bond Hedged over time. It illustrates the distribution of monthly returns, showcasing the range and frequency of positive and negative returns.

CRAIG ISRAELSEN 7TWELVE PORTFOLIO TO EUR BOND HEDGED
Monthly Returns Distribution
Data Source: 1 May 1994 - 30 April 2024 (30 Years)
Data Source: 1 January 1976 - 30 April 2024 (~48 years)
224 Positive Months (62%) - 136 Negative Months (38%)
366 Positive Months (63%) - 214 Negative Months (37%)
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(Scroll down to see all data)
Investment Returns, up to July 2020, have been derived using the historical series of equivalent ETFs / Assets, instead of the actual ETFs of the portfolio.
You can find additional information on extended Data Sources here.

Returns are calculated based on the performance of the original US asset, adjusted for actual currency exchange rates.
Hedged returns are calculated taking into account the interest rate differentials of the countries. It is assumed that hedged instruments have an additional expense ratio of 0.25% (yearly).

In particular, the series derived from equivalent datasets are:
  • EUNL.DE - iShares Core MSCI World (EUNL.DE), up to October 2009
  • IQQ7.DE - iShares US Property Yield (IQQ7.DE), up to March 2007
  • IS3N.DE - iShares Core MSCI Emerg. Markets (IS3N.DE), up to July 2014
  • SPY4.DE - SPDR S&P 400 US Mid Cap (SPY4.DE), up to April 2014
  • ZPRR.DE - SPDR Russell 2000 US Small Cap (ZPRR.DE), up to November 2014
  • CBUE.DE - iShares USD Treasury Bond 3-7yr Eur Hedged (CBUE.DE), up to March 2019
  • PR1H.DE - Amundi US Treasury Bond 0-1Y EUR Hedged (PR1H.DE), up to July 2020
  • UIQK.DE - UBS CMCI Composite SF (UIQK.DE), up to May 2014
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