Rebalancing: at every Jan 1st
Currency: USD
When holding the Charles Schwab Conservative Income Portfolio, how long should you stay invested to have high probability to achieve a positive return?
Over the selected period (~40 years), the longest duration with a negative return was 52 months (from July 2019 to October 2023).
This indicates that, within the same timeframe, any rolling period of 53 months or more has consistently resulted in a positive return.
Understanding this metric is crucial as it highlights the importance of a safe investment horizon. Knowing the minimum duration required to likely see positive returns helps investors set realistic expectations and reinforces the strategy of staying invested through market cycles. This approach can mitigate the emotional reactions to short-term market fluctuations and enhance the likelihood of achieving financial goals.
Charles Schwab Conservative Income Portfolio: ETF allocation and returns
Previous vs subsequent Returns
Is there a correlation between past and future returns over all 10-year rolling periods?
The following chart illustrates the relationship between past returns (x-axis) and subsequent returns (y-axis).
Data points are aggregated to show occurrences, and you can zoom in by clicking or drawing over the desired area.
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As of Nov 30, 2024, the annualized return of the previous 10 years has been 2.14%.
Rolling Returns
A rolling return is a measure of investment performance that calculates the return of an investment over a set period of time, with the starting date rolling forward. This approach can provide a more accurate representation of the investment's historical performance and helps investors to evaluate the investment's consistency over time.
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Rolling Period Analysis
By selecting the 'Rolling Period', the chart and data will update. To study a different date range, change the simulation settings.
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Worst | Median | Best | Negative Periods |
---|---|---|---|
-10.62%
Nov 2021 - Oct 2022 |
+5.63% |
+25.02%
Apr 1985 - Mar 1986 |
11.11%
52 out of 468 |
-17.08%
Oct 2021 - Sep 2022 |
+2.97% |
+22.39%
Apr 1985 - Mar 1986 |
27.14%
127 out of 468 |
-5.03%
Nov 2021 - Oct 2023 |
+5.47% |
+17.39%
Mar 1985 - Feb 1987 |
5.70%
26 out of 456 |
-10.17%
Oct 2020 - Sep 2022 |
+2.55% |
+14.46%
Mar 1985 - Feb 1987 |
14.25%
65 out of 456 |
-2.23%
Nov 2020 - Oct 2023 |
+5.51% |
+12.90%
Oct 1990 - Sep 1993 |
5.63%
25 out of 444 |
-7.53%
Nov 2020 - Oct 2023 |
+2.82% |
+9.56%
Oct 1990 - Sep 1993 |
11.26%
50 out of 444 |
-0.78%
Nov 2019 - Oct 2023 |
+5.63% |
+11.11%
Apr 1989 - Mar 1993 |
0.93%
4 out of 432 |
-5.12%
Nov 2019 - Oct 2023 |
+3.03% |
+6.98%
Feb 1990 - Jan 1994 |
9.26%
40 out of 432 |
+0.79%
Oct 2017 - Sep 2022 |
+5.51% |
+10.75%
Sep 1988 - Aug 1993 |
0.00%
0 out of 420 |
-2.92%
May 2019 - Apr 2024 |
+3.08% |
+6.84%
Jan 1985 - Dec 1989 |
8.57%
36 out of 420 |
+0.71%
Oct 2016 - Sep 2022 |
+5.60% |
+10.53%
Oct 1987 - Sep 1993 |
0.00%
0 out of 408 |
-2.80%
Nov 2017 - Oct 2023 |
+3.08% |
+6.30%
Oct 1987 - Sep 1993 |
9.31%
38 out of 408 |
+0.90%
Oct 2016 - Sep 2023 |
+5.41% |
+10.76%
Jan 1985 - Dec 1991 |
0.00%
0 out of 396 |
-2.53%
Oct 2016 - Sep 2023 |
+2.94% |
+6.57%
Jan 1985 - Dec 1991 |
8.84%
35 out of 396 |
+1.26%
Nov 2014 - Oct 2022 |
+5.33% |
+10.77%
Mar 1985 - Feb 1993 |
0.00%
0 out of 384 |
-1.94%
Nov 2015 - Oct 2023 |
+2.81% |
+6.73%
Mar 1985 - Feb 1993 |
8.33%
32 out of 384 |
+1.22%
Nov 2014 - Oct 2023 |
+5.41% |
+10.38%
Jan 1985 - Dec 1993 |
0.00%
0 out of 372 |
-1.65%
Nov 2014 - Oct 2023 |
+2.89% |
+6.45%
Jan 1985 - Dec 1993 |
8.87%
33 out of 372 |
+1.26%
Oct 2012 - Sep 2022 |
+5.63% |
+9.31%
Mar 1985 - Feb 1995 |
0.00%
0 out of 360 |
-1.30%
Nov 2013 - Oct 2023 |
+2.92% |
+5.54%
Mar 1985 - Feb 1995 |
8.89%
32 out of 360 |
+1.24%
Nov 2012 - Oct 2023 |
+5.54% |
+9.66%
Jan 1985 - Dec 1995 |
0.00%
0 out of 348 |
-1.33%
Nov 2012 - Oct 2023 |
+3.04% |
+5.96%
Jan 1985 - Dec 1995 |
8.62%
30 out of 348 |
+1.58%
Nov 2011 - Oct 2023 |
+5.58% |
+9.32%
Jan 1985 - Dec 1996 |
0.00%
0 out of 336 |
-0.97%
Nov 2011 - Oct 2023 |
+3.04% |
+5.64%
Jan 1985 - Dec 1996 |
8.63%
29 out of 336 |
+1.83%
Nov 2010 - Oct 2023 |
+5.66% |
+9.31%
Mar 1985 - Feb 1998 |
0.00%
0 out of 324 |
-0.80%
Nov 2010 - Oct 2023 |
+3.08% |
+5.82%
Mar 1985 - Feb 1998 |
7.72%
25 out of 324 |
+2.31%
Nov 2009 - Oct 2023 |
+5.65% |
+9.10%
Jan 1985 - Dec 1998 |
0.00%
0 out of 312 |
-0.29%
May 2010 - Apr 2024 |
+3.10% |
+5.70%
Jan 1985 - Dec 1998 |
4.17%
13 out of 312 |
+2.55%
Mar 2008 - Feb 2023 |
+5.65% |
+8.49%
Mar 1985 - Feb 2000 |
0.00%
0 out of 300 |
+0.17%
Nov 2007 - Oct 2022 |
+3.08% |
+5.15%
Mar 1985 - Feb 2000 |
0.00%
0 out of 300 |
+2.46%
Nov 2007 - Oct 2023 |
+5.67% |
+8.74%
Mar 1985 - Feb 2001 |
0.00%
0 out of 288 |
+0.02%
Nov 2007 - Oct 2023 |
+3.11% |
+5.36%
Mar 1985 - Feb 2001 |
0.00%
0 out of 288 |
+2.61%
Nov 2006 - Oct 2023 |
+5.65% |
+8.56%
Mar 1985 - Feb 2002 |
0.00%
0 out of 276 |
+0.10%
Nov 2006 - Oct 2023 |
+3.23% |
+5.32%
Mar 1985 - Feb 2002 |
0.00%
0 out of 276 |
+2.81%
Nov 2005 - Oct 2023 |
+5.55% |
+8.53%
Mar 1985 - Feb 2003 |
0.00%
0 out of 264 |
+0.36%
Nov 2005 - Oct 2023 |
+3.16% |
+5.28%
Mar 1985 - Feb 2003 |
0.00%
0 out of 264 |
+2.82%
Nov 2004 - Oct 2023 |
+5.59% |
+8.43%
Mar 1985 - Feb 2004 |
0.00%
0 out of 252 |
+0.27%
Nov 2004 - Oct 2023 |
+3.17% |
+5.26%
Mar 1985 - Feb 2004 |
0.00%
0 out of 252 |
+2.99%
Nov 2003 - Oct 2023 |
+5.46% |
+8.24%
Jan 1985 - Dec 2004 |
0.00%
0 out of 240 |
+0.40%
Nov 2003 - Oct 2023 |
+3.08% |
+5.06%
Jan 1985 - Dec 2004 |
0.00%
0 out of 240 |
Charles Schwab Conservative Income Portfolio: ETF allocation and returns