Burton Malkiel Late Thirties to Early Forties Portfolio: ETF allocation and returns

Data Source: from January 1985 to November 2023 (~39 years)
Consolidated Returns as of 30 November 2023
Live Update: Dec 01 2023

PORTFOLIO • LIVE PERFORMANCE (USD currency)

0.97%

1 Day

Dec 01 2023

0.97%

Current Month

December 2023

The Burton Malkiel Late Thirties to Early Forties Portfolio is a Very High Risk portfolio and can be implemented with 8 ETFs.

It's exposed for 85% on the Stock Market.

In the last 30 Years, the Burton Malkiel Late Thirties to Early Forties Portfolio obtained a 8.19% compound annual return, with a 13.63% standard deviation.

Table of contents

Asset Allocation and ETFs

The Burton Malkiel Late Thirties to Early Forties Portfolio has the following asset allocation:

          85% Stocks
        
          15% Fixed Income
        
          0% Commodities

The Burton Malkiel Late Thirties to Early Forties Portfolio can be implemented with the following ETFs:

Weight (%)	Ticker	Currency	ETF Name	Investment Themes
32.50	VTI	USD	Vanguard Total Stock Market	Equity, U.S., Large Cap
16.25	EEM	USD	iShares MSCI Emerging Markets	Equity, Emerging Markets, Large Cap
16.25	EFA	USD	iShares MSCI EAFE	Equity, EAFE, Large Cap
10.00	VIG	USD	Vanguard Dividend Appreciation	Equity, U.S., Large Cap
10.00	VNQ	USD	Vanguard Real Estate	Real Estate, U.S.
5.00	BIL	USD	SPDR Blmbg Barclays 1-3 Mth T-Bill	Bond, U.S., Ultra Short-Term
5.00	EMB	USD	iShares JP Morgan USD Em Mkts Bd	Bond, Emerging Markets, All-Term
5.00	LQD	USD	iShares Investment Grade Corporate Bond	Bond, U.S., All-Term

Most of Lazy Portfolios are made of common components (asset classes), very simple and well defined. For a more complete view, find out the most common ETFs you can use to build your portfolio.

Portfolio and ETF Returns as of Nov 30, 2023

The Burton Malkiel Late Thirties to Early Forties Portfolio guaranteed the following returns.

Returns are calculated in USD, assuming:

no fees or capital gain taxes.
a rebalancing of the components at every January 1st. How do returns change with different rebalancing strategies?
the reinvestment of dividends.

December 2023 return is calculated on the hypothesis of a newly built portfolio, with the starting asset allocation.

BURTON MALKIEL LATE THIRTIES TO EARLY FORTIES PORTFOLIO

Consolidated returns as of 30 November 2023

Live Update: Dec 01 2023

Swipe left to see all data

			Chg (%)		Return (%)	Return (%) as of Nov 30, 2023
			1 Day	*Time ET^()**	Dec 2023	1M	6M	1Y	5Y	10Y	30Y	MAX (~39Y)
Burton Malkiel Late Thirties to Early Forties Portfolio			0.97		0.97	8.32	6.40	7.20	6.94	6.72	8.19	10.14
US Inflation Adjusted return						8.32	5.17	3.73	2.76	3.80	5.53	7.14
*Components*
VTI	USD	Vanguard Total Stock Market	0.84	Dec 01 2023	0.84	9.42	10.04	12.72	11.71	11.16	9.90	11.00
EEM	USD	iShares MSCI Emerging Markets	0.43	Dec 01 2023	0.43	7.79	4.40	2.42	1.46	1.42	4.65	8.63
EFA	USD	iShares MSCI EAFE	1.05	Dec 01 2023	1.05	8.22	4.37	10.33	5.92	3.86	5.03	7.66
VIG	USD	Vanguard Dividend Appreciation	0.75	Dec 01 2023	0.75	7.47	8.41	5.85	10.87	10.47	10.29	11.30
VNQ	USD	Vanguard Real Estate	2.46	Dec 01 2023	2.46	12.08	4.30	-2.99	3.66	6.41	8.34	9.08
BIL	USD	SPDR Blmbg Barclays 1-3 Mth T-Bill	0.02	Dec 01 2023	0.02	0.47	2.67	4.88	1.67	1.05	2.24	3.09
EMB	USD	iShares JP Morgan USD Em Mkts Bd	1.53	Dec 01 2023	1.53	6.23	3.86	4.00	0.79	2.25	8.75	9.37
LQD	USD	iShares Investment Grade Corporate Bond	1.20	Dec 01 2023	1.20	7.57	0.87	2.70	2.20	2.52	5.02	6.65

Returns over 1 year are annualized | Available data source: since Jan 1985

(*) Eastern Time (ET - America/New York)

US Inflation is updated to Oct 2023. Waiting for updates, inflation of Nov 2023 is set to 0%. Current inflation (annualized) is 1Y: 3.35% , 5Y: 4.07% , 10Y: 2.82% , 30Y: 2.52%

Live update: World Markets and Indexes

In 2022, the Burton Malkiel Late Thirties to Early Forties Portfolio granted a 1.97% dividend yield. If you are interested in getting periodic income, please refer to the Burton Malkiel Late Thirties to Early Forties Portfolio: Dividend Yield page.

Capital Growth as of Nov 30, 2023

An investment of 1$, since December 1993, now would be worth 10.62$, with a total return of 961.55% (8.19% annualized).

The Inflation Adjusted Capital now would be 5.03$, with a net total return of 403.05% (5.53% annualized).

An investment of 1$, since January 1985, now would be worth 42.85$, with a total return of 4184.52% (10.14% annualized).

The Inflation Adjusted Capital now would be 14.66$, with a net total return of 1366.37% (7.14% annualized).

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Portfolio Metrics as of Nov 30, 2023

Metrics of Burton Malkiel Late Thirties to Early Forties Portfolio, updated as of 30 November 2023.

Metrics are calculated based on monthly returns, assuming:

no fees or capital gain taxes.
a rebalancing of the components at every January 1st. How do returns change with different rebalancing strategies?

the reinvestment of dividends.

BURTON MALKIEL LATE THIRTIES TO EARLY FORTIES PORTFOLIO

Advanced Metrics

Data Source: 1 January 1985 - 30 November 2023 (~39 years)

Swipe left to see all data

	Metrics as of Nov 30, 2023
	1M	3M	6M	1Y	3Y	5Y	10Y	20Y	30Y	MAX (~39Y)
Investment Return (%)	8.32	1.19	6.40	7.20	3.49	6.94	6.72	7.83	8.19	10.14
Infl. Adjusted Return (%) details	8.32	0.98	5.17	3.73	-2.12	2.76	3.80	5.10	5.53	7.14
US Inflation (%)	0.00	0.21	1.17	3.35	5.74	4.07	2.82	2.59	2.52	2.79
Waiting for updates, inflation of Nov 2023 is temporarily set to 0%. Returns / Inflation rates over 1 year are annualized.
DRAWDOWN Inflation Adjusted: Inflation Adjusted:				1Y	3Y	5Y	10Y	20Y	30Y	MAX
Deepest Drawdown Depth (%)				-9.38	-24.26	-24.26	-24.26	-48.28	-48.28	-48.28
Start to Recovery (# months) details				4*	23*	23*	23*	42	42	42
Start (yyyy mm)				2023 08	2022 01	2022 01	2022 01	2007 11	2007 11	2007 11
Start to Bottom (# months)				3	9	9	9	16	16	16
Bottom (yyyy mm)				2023 10	2022 09	2022 09	2022 09	2009 02	2009 02	2009 02
Bottom to End (# months)				1	14	14	14	26	26	26
End (yyyy mm)				-	-	-	-	2011 04	2011 04	2011 04
Longest Drawdown Depth (%)				-3.75	same as deepest	same as deepest	same as deepest	same as deepest	same as deepest	same as deepest
Start to Recovery (# months) details				5	same as deepest	same as deepest	same as deepest	same as deepest	same as deepest	same as deepest
Start (yyyy mm)				2023 02	2022 01	2022 01	2022 01	2007 11	2007 11	2007 11
Start to Bottom (# months)				1	9	9	9	16	16	16
Bottom (yyyy mm)				2023 02	2022 09	2022 09	2022 09	2009 02	2009 02	2009 02
Bottom to End (# months)				4	14	14	14	26	26	26
End (yyyy mm)				2023 06	-	-	-	2011 04	2011 04	2011 04
Longest negative period (# months) details				11	34	34	34	63	63	63
Period Start (yyyy mm)				2022 12	2021 01	2021 01	2021 01	2003 12	2003 12	2003 12
Period End (yyyy mm)				2023 10	2023 10	2023 10	2023 10	2009 02	2009 02	2009 02
Annualized Return (%)				-1.13	-0.62	-0.62	-0.62	-0.22	-0.22	-0.22
Drawdowns / Negative periods marked with * are in progress
Deepest Drawdown Depth (%)				-9.96	-28.86	-28.86	-28.86	-49.07	-49.07	-49.07
Start to Recovery (# months) details				4*	23*	23*	23*	63	63	63
Start (yyyy mm)				2023 08	2022 01	2022 01	2022 01	2007 11	2007 11	2007 11
Start to Bottom (# months)				3	9	9	9	16	16	16
Bottom (yyyy mm)				2023 10	2022 09	2022 09	2022 09	2009 02	2009 02	2009 02
Bottom to End (# months)				1	14	14	14	47	47	47
End (yyyy mm)				-	-	-	-	2013 01	2013 01	2013 01
Longest Drawdown Depth (%)				-4.28	same as deepest	same as deepest	same as deepest	same as deepest	same as deepest	same as deepest
Start to Recovery (# months) details				5	same as deepest	same as deepest	same as deepest	same as deepest	same as deepest	same as deepest
Start (yyyy mm)				2023 02	2022 01	2022 01	2022 01	2007 11	2007 11	2007 11
Start to Bottom (# months)				1	9	9	9	16	16	16
Bottom (yyyy mm)				2023 02	2022 09	2022 09	2022 09	2009 02	2009 02	2009 02
Bottom to End (# months)				4	14	14	14	47	47	47
End (yyyy mm)				2023 06	-	-	-	2013 01	2013 01	2013 01
Longest negative period (# months) details				11	36*	54	69	69	131	131
Period Start (yyyy mm)				2022 12	2020 12	2019 05	2018 02	2018 02	1998 04	1998 04
Period End (yyyy mm)				2023 10	2023 11	2023 10	2023 10	2023 10	2009 02	2009 02
Annualized Return (%)				-4.61	-2.12	-0.03	-0.26	-0.26	-0.16	-0.16
Drawdowns / Negative periods marked with * are in progress
RISK INDICATORS				1Y	3Y	5Y	10Y	20Y	30Y	MAX
Standard Deviation (%)				14.72	14.79	15.93	12.82	14.03	13.63	13.73
Sharpe Ratio				0.16	0.11	0.33	0.44	0.47	0.44	0.45
Sortino Ratio				0.24	0.15	0.44	0.59	0.61	0.57	0.58
Ulcer Index				3.78	10.78	9.12	6.99	10.88	9.88	9.11
Ratio: Return / Standard Deviation				0.49	0.24	0.44	0.52	0.56	0.60	0.74
Ratio: Return / Deepest Drawdown				0.77	0.14	0.29	0.28	0.16	0.17	0.21
% Positive Months details				50%	55%	60%	62%	64%	63%	65%
Positive Months				6	20	36	75	154	230	304
Negative Months				6	16	24	45	86	130	163
LONG TERM RETURNS Inflation Adjusted: Inflation Adjusted:				1Y	3Y	5Y	10Y	20Y	30Y	MAX
Best 10 Years Return (%) - Annualized							6.72	12.91	12.91	15.78
Worst 10 Years Return (%) - Annualized							6.72	5.07	2.84	2.84
Best 10 Years Return (%) - Annualized							3.80	10.95	10.95	12.27
Worst 10 Years Return (%) - Annualized							3.80	3.07	0.26	0.26
ROLLING PERIOD RETURNS Inflation Adjusted: Inflation Adjusted:				1Y	3Y	5Y	10Y	20Y	30Y	MAX
Over the latest 30Y
Best Rolling Return (%) - Annualized				57.14	25.05	19.97	12.91	9.44	8.19
Worst Rolling Return (%) - Annualized				-41.31	-11.83	-1.97	2.84	6.06	8.19
% Positive Periods				76%	87%	99%	100%	100%	100%
Best Rolling Return (%) - Annualized				53.84	22.15	17.15	10.95	7.05	5.53
Worst Rolling Return (%) - Annualized				-41.45	-13.74	-4.49	0.26	3.91	5.53
% Positive Periods				71%	83%	93%	100%	100%	100%
Over all the available data source (Jan 1985 - Nov 2023)
Best Rolling Return (%) - Annualized				57.14	25.05	20.20	15.78	13.03	11.23
Worst Rolling Return (%) - Annualized				-41.31	-11.83	-1.97	2.84	6.06	7.78
% Positive Periods				78%	90%	99%	100%	100%	100%
Best Rolling Return (%) - Annualized				53.84	22.15	17.15	12.27	9.73	8.29
Worst Rolling Return (%) - Annualized				-41.45	-13.74	-4.49	0.26	3.91	5.13
% Positive Periods				74%	87%	95%	100%	100%	100%
WITHDRAWAL RATES (WR)				1Y	3Y	5Y	10Y	20Y	30Y	MAX
Safe WR (%)					33.45	22.73	12.53	8.47	7.38	11.24
Perpetual WR (%)					0.00	2.68	3.66	4.86	5.24	6.67

Terms and Definitions

Annualized Portfolio Return: it's the annualized geometric mean return of the portfolio
Deepest/Longest Drawdown: a drawdown refers to the decline in value from a relative peak value to a relative trough. The deepest (or maximum) drawdown is the maximum observed loss from a peak to a trough of a portfolio before a new peak is attained. The longest drawdown is the period observed from a peak to the subsequent peak with the greatest duration.

Longest negative period: it's the maximum period for which an overall negative return has been observed
Standard Deviation: it's a measure of the dispersion of returns around the mean
Sharpe Ratio: it's a measure of risk-adjusted performance of the portfolio. It's calculated by dividing the excess return of the portfolio over the risk-free rate by the portfolio standard deviation. The risk-free rate here considered is the 1-3 Mth T-Bill return

Sortino Ratio: another measure of risk-adjusted performance of the portfolio. It's a modification of the Sharpe Ratio (same formula but the denominator is the portfolio downside standard deviation)
Ulcer Index: it's a measure of downside risk that quantifies the depth and duration of drawdowns in an investment portfolio
Best/Worst 10Y returns: the best and the worst 10-year return over a time frame

Rolling Returns: N-year returns over a time frame, calculated over all the available data source (best, worst, % of positive returns). Each rolling period, longer than the longest negative period, yielded a non-negative minimum return.
Safe Withdrawal Rate (SWR): it's the percentage of the original portfolio balance that can be withdrawn at the end of each year with inflation adjustment, without the portfolio running out of money (dollar amount withdrawal).
Perpetual Withdrawal Rate (PWR): it's the percentage of portfolio balance that can be withdrawn at the end of each year, while retaining the inflation adjusted portfolio balance (percentage withdrawal).

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Portfolio Components Correlation

Correlation measures to what degree the returns of the two assets move in relation to each other.

Correlation coefficient is a numerical value between -1 and +1. If one variable goes up by a certain amount, the correlation coefficient indicates which way the other variable moves and by how much.
Asset correlations are calculated based on monthly returns.

COMPONENTS MONTHLY CORRELATIONS

Monthly correlations as of 30 November 2023

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Asset	VTI	EEM	EFA	VIG	VNQ	BIL	EMB	LQD
VTI	-	0.87	0.89	0.94	0.93	0.08	0.94	0.85
EEM	0.87	-	0.92	0.82	0.87	-0.13	0.92	0.85
EFA	0.89	0.92	-	0.89	0.93	-0.15	0.94	0.91
VIG	0.94	0.82	0.89	-	0.90	0.23	0.92	0.82
VNQ	0.93	0.87	0.93	0.90	-	0.02	0.95	0.87
BIL	0.08	-0.13	-0.15	0.23	0.02	-	0.07	0.04
EMB	0.94	0.92	0.94	0.92	0.95	0.07	-	0.95
LQD	0.85	0.85	0.91	0.82	0.87	0.04	0.95	-

Asset	VTI	EEM	EFA	VIG	VNQ	BIL	EMB	LQD
VTI	-	0.75	0.90	0.95	0.87	-0.09	0.75	0.65
EEM	0.75	-	0.85	0.67	0.68	-0.04	0.80	0.67
EFA	0.90	0.85	-	0.89	0.83	-0.04	0.82	0.70
VIG	0.95	0.67	0.89	-	0.86	-0.10	0.71	0.60
VNQ	0.87	0.68	0.83	0.86	-	-0.14	0.78	0.70
BIL	-0.09	-0.04	-0.04	-0.10	-0.14	-	0.04	0.05
EMB	0.75	0.80	0.82	0.71	0.78	0.04	-	0.87
LQD	0.65	0.67	0.70	0.60	0.70	0.05	0.87	-

Asset	VTI	EEM	EFA	VIG	VNQ	BIL	EMB	LQD
VTI	-	0.71	0.87	0.95	0.75	-0.06	0.68	0.57
EEM	0.71	-	0.82	0.65	0.54	-0.03	0.75	0.58
EFA	0.87	0.82	-	0.85	0.67	-0.01	0.76	0.61
VIG	0.95	0.65	0.85	-	0.74	-0.05	0.64	0.53
VNQ	0.75	0.54	0.67	0.74	-	-0.12	0.69	0.69
BIL	-0.06	-0.03	-0.01	-0.05	-0.12	-	0.00	0.02
EMB	0.68	0.75	0.76	0.64	0.69	0.00	-	0.84
LQD	0.57	0.58	0.61	0.53	0.69	0.02	0.84	-

Asset	VTI	EEM	EFA	VIG	VNQ	BIL	EMB	LQD
VTI	-	0.75	0.84	0.76	0.63	-0.02	0.58	0.33
EEM	0.75	-	0.81	0.56	0.52	-0.04	0.67	0.30
EFA	0.84	0.81	-	0.61	0.60	-0.04	0.59	0.36
VIG	0.76	0.56	0.61	-	0.58	0.02	0.50	0.32
VNQ	0.63	0.52	0.60	0.58	-	-0.02	0.51	0.44
BIL	-0.02	-0.04	-0.04	0.02	-0.02	-	0.07	0.00
EMB	0.58	0.67	0.59	0.50	0.51	0.07	-	0.58
LQD	0.33	0.30	0.36	0.32	0.44	0.00	0.58	-

Asset	VTI	EEM	EFA	VIG	VNQ	BIL	EMB	LQD
VTI	-	0.71	0.72	0.81	0.63	0.00	0.56	0.32
EEM	0.71	-	0.66	0.58	0.49	0.03	0.62	0.28
EFA	0.72	0.66	-	0.56	0.53	0.03	0.53	0.33
VIG	0.81	0.58	0.56	-	0.59	0.03	0.50	0.31
VNQ	0.63	0.49	0.53	0.59	-	-0.02	0.51	0.40
BIL	0.00	0.03	0.03	0.03	-0.02	-	0.06	0.08
EMB	0.56	0.62	0.53	0.50	0.51	0.06	-	0.59
LQD	0.32	0.28	0.33	0.31	0.40	0.08	0.59	-

If you want to learn more about historical correlations, you can find out here how the main asset class are correlated to each other.

Drawdowns

A drawdown refers to the decline in value from a relative peak value to a relative trough. A maximum drawdown is the maximum observed loss from a peak to a trough of a portfolio before a new peak is attained.

BURTON MALKIEL LATE THIRTIES TO EARLY FORTIES PORTFOLIO

Drawdown periods

Drawdown periods - Inflation Adjusted

Data Source: 1 December 1993 - 30 November 2023 (30 Years)

Data Source: 1 January 1985 - 30 November 2023 (~39 years)

Inflation Adjusted:

Chart Table

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	Drawdown period			Recovery period		Total
Drawdown	Start	Bottom	#Months	End	#Months	#Months	Ulcer Index
-48.28%	Nov 2007	Feb 2009	16	Apr 2011	26	42	22.43
-24.26%	Jan 2022	Sep 2022	9	in progress	14	23	13.35
-21.55%	Sep 2000	Sep 2002	25	Oct 2003	13	38	11.57
-19.36%	Jan 2020	Mar 2020	3	Aug 2020	5	8	8.83
-18.70%	May 1998	Aug 1998	4	Mar 1999	7	11	7.76
-17.20%	May 2011	Sep 2011	5	Sep 2012	12	17	6.44
-11.04%	Feb 2018	Dec 2018	11	Apr 2019	4	15	4.65
-10.51%	May 2015	Feb 2016	10	Jul 2016	5	15	5.57
-8.61%	Feb 1994	Mar 1994	2	May 1995	14	16	5.77
-6.18%	Apr 2004	Apr 2004	1	Oct 2004	6	7	3.53
-6.08%	Aug 1997	Oct 1997	3	Feb 1998	4	7	3.73
-4.51%	May 2019	May 2019	1	Jun 2019	1	2	2.60
-4.37%	Apr 2000	May 2000	2	Aug 2000	3	5	2.16
-3.97%	Sep 2021	Sep 2021	1	Oct 2021	1	2	2.29
-3.91%	May 2006	May 2006	1	Aug 2006	3	4	2.49

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	Drawdown period			Recovery period		Total
Drawdown	Start	Bottom	#Months	End	#Months	#Months	Ulcer Index
-49.07%	Nov 2007	Feb 2009	16	Jan 2013	47	63	20.80
-28.86%	Jan 2022	Sep 2022	9	in progress	14	23	18.78
-25.18%	Jan 2000	Sep 2002	33	Dec 2003	15	48	13.09
-19.72%	Jan 2020	Mar 2020	3	Aug 2020	5	8	8.98
-19.15%	May 1998	Aug 1998	4	Apr 1999	8	12	7.87
-12.23%	Feb 2018	Dec 2018	11	Oct 2019	10	21	5.13
-11.06%	Mar 2015	Feb 2016	12	Jul 2016	5	17	5.96
-10.99%	Feb 1994	Jan 1995	12	Jul 1995	6	18	7.11
-6.72%	Aug 1997	Oct 1997	3	Feb 1998	4	7	4.13
-6.47%	Apr 2004	Apr 2004	1	Oct 2004	6	7	4.19
-4.95%	Mar 2005	Apr 2005	2	Jul 2005	3	5	2.79
-4.72%	Jul 1999	Sep 1999	3	Nov 1999	2	5	2.58
-4.38%	May 2006	May 2006	1	Sep 2006	4	5	2.75
-4.23%	Sep 2021	Sep 2021	1	Dec 2021	3	4	2.47
-4.05%	May 2013	Jun 2013	2	Sep 2013	3	5	2.27

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	Drawdown period			Recovery period		Total
Drawdown	Start	Bottom	#Months	End	#Months	#Months	Ulcer Index
-48.28%	Nov 2007	Feb 2009	16	Apr 2011	26	42	22.43
-24.26%	Jan 2022	Sep 2022	9	in progress	14	23	13.35
-22.99%	Sep 1987	Nov 1987	3	Jan 1989	14	17	11.54
-21.55%	Sep 2000	Sep 2002	25	Oct 2003	13	38	11.57
-19.36%	Jan 2020	Mar 2020	3	Aug 2020	5	8	8.83
-18.70%	May 1998	Aug 1998	4	Mar 1999	7	11	7.76
-17.29%	Aug 1990	Sep 1990	2	Feb 1991	5	7	10.02
-17.20%	May 2011	Sep 2011	5	Sep 2012	12	17	6.44
-11.04%	Feb 2018	Dec 2018	11	Apr 2019	4	15	4.65
-10.51%	May 2015	Feb 2016	10	Jul 2016	5	15	5.57
-8.67%	Jan 1990	Apr 1990	4	Jul 1990	3	7	4.80
-8.61%	Feb 1994	Mar 1994	2	May 1995	14	16	5.77
-6.18%	Apr 2004	Apr 2004	1	Oct 2004	6	7	3.53
-6.08%	Aug 1997	Oct 1997	3	Feb 1998	4	7	3.73
-5.35%	Sep 1986	Sep 1986	1	Jan 1987	4	5	3.01

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	Drawdown period			Recovery period		Total
Drawdown	Start	Bottom	#Months	End	#Months	#Months	Ulcer Index
-49.07%	Nov 2007	Feb 2009	16	Jan 2013	47	63	20.80
-28.86%	Jan 2022	Sep 2022	9	in progress	14	23	18.78
-25.18%	Jan 2000	Sep 2002	33	Dec 2003	15	48	13.09
-23.66%	Sep 1987	Nov 1987	3	May 1989	18	21	12.12
-20.16%	Jan 1990	Sep 1990	9	May 1991	8	17	9.55
-19.72%	Jan 2020	Mar 2020	3	Aug 2020	5	8	8.98
-19.15%	May 1998	Aug 1998	4	Apr 1999	8	12	7.87
-12.23%	Feb 2018	Dec 2018	11	Oct 2019	10	21	5.13
-11.06%	Mar 2015	Feb 2016	12	Jul 2016	5	17	5.96
-10.99%	Feb 1994	Jan 1995	12	Jul 1995	6	18	7.11
-6.72%	Aug 1997	Oct 1997	3	Feb 1998	4	7	4.13
-6.47%	Apr 2004	Apr 2004	1	Oct 2004	6	7	4.19
-5.78%	Sep 1986	Sep 1986	1	Jan 1987	4	5	3.43
-4.96%	Jun 1991	Jun 1991	1	Aug 1991	2	3	2.65
-4.95%	Mar 2005	Apr 2005	2	Jul 2005	3	5	2.79

Rolling Returns

( more details)

A rolling return is a measure of investment performance that calculates the return of an investment over a set period of time, with the starting date rolling forward. This approach can provide a more accurate representation of the investment's historical performance and helps investors to evaluate the investment's consistency over time.

BURTON MALKIEL LATE THIRTIES TO EARLY FORTIES PORTFOLIO

Annualized Rolling Returns

Annualized Rolling Returns - Inflation Adjusted

Data Source: 1 December 1993 - 30 November 2023 (30 Years)

Data Source: 1 January 1985 - 30 November 2023 (~39 years)

Inflation Adjusted:

Return Chart Capital Chart Table

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Rolling Period	Worst Period			15th Percentile		50th Percentile		85th Percentile		Best Period			Latest	Negative Periods
Rolling Period	Ann. Return	From To	Growth of 1$	Ann. Return	Growth of 1$	Ann. Return	Growth of 1$	Ann. Return	Growth of 1$	Ann. Return	From To	Growth of 1$	Latest	Negative Periods
1Y	-41.31	03/2008 02/2009	0.58$	-4.91	0.95$	10.91	1.10$	21.28	1.21$	57.14	03/2009 02/2010	1.57$	7.20	23.78%
2Y	-22.98	03/2007 02/2009	0.59$	-1.12	0.97$	9.53	1.19$	17.77	1.38$	37.96	03/2009 02/2011	1.90$	-2.19	17.21%
3Y	-11.83	03/2006 02/2009	0.68$	2.71	1.08$	9.10	1.29$	14.51	1.50$	25.05	03/2009 02/2012	1.95$	3.49	12.31%
5Y	-1.97	03/2004 02/2009	0.90$	4.26	1.23$	7.51	1.43$	12.86	1.83$	19.97	11/2002 10/2007	2.48$	6.94	1.00%
7Y	1.83	03/2002 02/2009	1.13$	5.84	1.48$	8.16	1.73$	9.96	1.94$	13.39	03/2009 02/2016	2.40$	7.77	0.00%
10Y	2.84	03/1999 02/2009	1.32$	5.83	1.76$	8.45	2.25$	10.21	2.64$	12.91	03/2009 02/2019	3.36$	6.72	0.00%
15Y	4.81	10/2007 09/2022	2.02$	6.90	2.72$	7.73	3.05$	8.64	3.46$	10.43	02/2003 01/2018	4.42$	9.68	0.00%
20Y	6.06	04/2000 03/2020	3.24$	7.47	4.22$	8.11	4.75$	9.00	5.60$	9.44	03/1995 02/2015	6.07$	7.83	0.00%
30Y	8.19	12/1993 11/2023	10.61$	8.19	10.61$	8.19	10.61$	8.19	10.61$	8.19	12/1993 11/2023	10.61$	8.19	0.00%
Annualized rolling and percentiles/median returns over full calendar month periods

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Rolling Period	Worst Period			15th Percentile		50th Percentile		85th Percentile		Best Period			Latest	Negative Periods
Rolling Period	Ann. Return	From To	Growth of 1$	Ann. Return	Growth of 1$	Ann. Return	Growth of 1$	Ann. Return	Growth of 1$	Ann. Return	From To	Growth of 1$	Latest	Negative Periods
1Y	-41.45	03/2008 02/2009	0.58$	-7.65	0.92$	8.50	1.08$	18.40	1.18$	53.84	03/2009 02/2010	1.53$	3.73	28.08%
2Y	-24.57	03/2007 02/2009	0.56$	-4.17	0.91$	7.39	1.15$	14.66	1.31$	35.09	03/2009 02/2011	1.82$	-7.04	20.47%
3Y	-13.74	03/2006 02/2009	0.64$	-1.03	0.96$	6.83	1.21$	11.99	1.40$	22.15	03/2009 02/2012	1.82$	-2.12	16.62%
5Y	-4.49	03/2004 02/2009	0.79$	1.35	1.06$	5.39	1.30$	10.25	1.62$	17.15	03/2009 02/2014	2.20$	2.76	6.64%
7Y	-0.71	03/2002 02/2009	0.95$	3.48	1.27$	5.87	1.49$	7.44	1.65$	11.60	03/2009 02/2016	2.15$	4.10	0.72%
10Y	0.26	03/1999 02/2009	1.02$	3.72	1.44$	6.05	1.79$	7.53	2.06$	10.95	03/2009 02/2019	2.82$	3.80	0.00%
15Y	2.37	10/2007 09/2022	1.42$	4.39	1.90$	5.37	2.19$	6.14	2.44$	8.17	02/2003 01/2018	3.24$	7.00	0.00%
20Y	3.91	04/2000 03/2020	2.15$	5.17	2.74$	5.73	3.04$	6.50	3.52$	7.05	03/1995 02/2015	3.90$	5.10	0.00%
30Y	5.53	12/1993 11/2023	5.03$	5.53	5.03$	5.53	5.03$	5.53	5.03$	5.53	12/1993 11/2023	5.03$	5.53	0.00%
Annualized rolling and percentiles/median returns over full calendar month periods

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Rolling Period	Worst Period			15th Percentile		50th Percentile		85th Percentile		Best Period			Latest	Negative Periods
Rolling Period	Ann. Return	From To	Growth of 1$	Ann. Return	Growth of 1$	Ann. Return	Growth of 1$	Ann. Return	Growth of 1$	Ann. Return	From To	Growth of 1$	Latest	Negative Periods
1Y	-41.31	03/2008 02/2009	0.58$	-4.08	0.95$	12.50	1.12$	23.20	1.23$	57.14	03/2009 02/2010	1.57$	7.20	21.93%
2Y	-22.98	03/2007 02/2009	0.59$	1.71	1.03$	10.54	1.22$	18.45	1.40$	37.96	03/2009 02/2011	1.90$	-2.19	13.06%
3Y	-11.83	03/2006 02/2009	0.68$	4.14	1.12$	10.86	1.36$	16.08	1.56$	25.05	03/2009 02/2012	1.95$	3.49	9.26%
5Y	-1.97	03/2004 02/2009	0.90$	4.94	1.27$	9.85	1.59$	15.02	2.01$	20.20	01/1985 12/1989	2.50$	6.94	0.74%
7Y	1.83	03/2002 02/2009	1.13$	6.22	1.52$	9.10	1.83$	13.87	2.48$	18.42	10/1990 09/1997	3.26$	7.77	0.00%
10Y	2.84	03/1999 02/2009	1.32$	6.30	1.84$	9.12	2.39$	13.38	3.51$	15.78	12/1987 11/1997	4.32$	6.72	0.00%
15Y	4.81	10/2007 09/2022	2.02$	7.14	2.81$	8.39	3.35$	11.51	5.12$	15.61	01/1985 12/1999	8.80$	9.68	0.00%
20Y	6.06	04/2000 03/2020	3.24$	7.68	4.38$	8.94	5.53$	11.58	8.94$	13.03	01/1985 12/2004	11.57$	7.83	0.00%
30Y	7.78	11/1993 10/2023	9.46$	8.64	12.02$	9.60	15.66$	10.12	18.02$	11.23	01/1985 12/2014	24.33$	8.19	0.00%
Annualized rolling and percentiles/median returns over full calendar month periods

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Rolling Period	Worst Period			15th Percentile		50th Percentile		85th Percentile		Best Period			Latest	Negative Periods
Rolling Period	Ann. Return	From To	Growth of 1$	Ann. Return	Growth of 1$	Ann. Return	Growth of 1$	Ann. Return	Growth of 1$	Ann. Return	From To	Growth of 1$	Latest	Negative Periods
1Y	-41.45	03/2008 02/2009	0.58$	-6.64	0.93$	9.63	1.09$	19.88	1.19$	53.84	03/2009 02/2010	1.53$	3.73	25.66%
2Y	-24.57	03/2007 02/2009	0.56$	-0.40	0.99$	7.83	1.16$	15.17	1.32$	35.09	03/2009 02/2011	1.82$	-7.04	15.77%
3Y	-13.74	03/2006 02/2009	0.64$	1.29	1.03$	7.77	1.25$	12.24	1.41$	22.15	03/2009 02/2012	1.82$	-2.12	12.73%
5Y	-4.49	03/2004 02/2009	0.79$	2.19	1.11$	7.24	1.41$	11.72	1.74$	17.15	03/2009 02/2014	2.20$	2.76	4.90%
7Y	-0.71	03/2002 02/2009	0.95$	3.78	1.29$	6.83	1.58$	10.41	2.00$	15.17	10/1990 09/1997	2.68$	4.10	0.52%
10Y	0.26	03/1999 02/2009	1.02$	4.28	1.52$	6.78	1.92$	9.81	2.54$	12.27	10/1990 09/2000	3.18$	3.80	0.00%
15Y	2.37	10/2007 09/2022	1.42$	4.78	2.01$	6.00	2.39$	8.41	3.35$	12.05	01/1985 12/1999	5.50$	7.00	0.00%
20Y	3.91	04/2000 03/2020	2.15$	5.38	2.85$	6.35	3.42$	8.18	4.82$	9.73	01/1985 12/2004	6.40$	5.10	0.00%
30Y	5.13	11/1993 10/2023	4.48$	5.99	5.73$	6.86	7.32$	7.51	8.77$	8.29	01/1985 12/2014	10.91$	5.53	0.00%
Annualized rolling and percentiles/median returns over full calendar month periods

If you need a deeper detail about rolling returns, please refer to the Burton Malkiel Late Thirties to Early Forties Portfolio: Rolling Returns page.

Seasonality

In which months is it better to invest in Burton Malkiel Late Thirties to Early Forties Portfolio?

Both the Average Return and the Gain Frequency (Win %) are useful to get an idea of what happened in the past.
For further information about the seasonality, check the Asset Class Seasonality page.

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	Monthly Average Return (%) and Gain Frequency
Return (%)	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec
Average Gain Frequency	1.84 40%	-1.85 40%	-1.15 80%	1.86 80%	-0.17 40%	1.55 80%	2.87 100%	-0.30 40%	-3.53 20%	1.41 60%	5.14 80%	0.34 60%
Best	7.8 2019	1.9 2019	2.5 2021	8.6 2020	4.1 2020	5.4 2019	5.6 2022	4.2 2020	1.6 2019	4.6 2022	9.9 2020	4.2 2020
Worst	-4.3 2022	-6.0 2020	-13.2 2020	-6.6 2022	-4.5 2019	-6.7 2022	0.2 2019	-3.7 2022	-9.0 2022	-2.5 2023	-2.3 2021	-6.1 2018

Monthly Seasonality over the period Feb 1985 - Nov 2023

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	Monthly Average Return (%) and Gain Frequency
Return (%)	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec
Average Gain Frequency	0.78 40%	-0.34 50%	0.22 70%	1.32 80%	0.34 60%	0.91 70%	2.26 90%	-0.36 50%	-2.13 40%	0.90 60%	3.07 80%	0.37 60%
Best	7.8 2019	4.3 2014	7.5 2016	8.6 2020	4.1 2020	5.4 2019	5.6 2022	4.2 2020	1.6 2019	6.0 2015	9.9 2020	4.2 2020
Worst	-4.3 2022	-6.0 2020	-13.2 2020	-6.6 2022	-4.5 2019	-6.7 2022	-1.2 2014	-5.9 2015	-9.0 2022	-6.3 2018	-2.3 2021	-6.1 2018

Monthly Seasonality over the period Feb 1985 - Nov 2023

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	Monthly Average Return (%) and Gain Frequency
Return (%)	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec
Average Gain Frequency	1.28 56%	0.51 64%	0.86 69%	1.78 79%	0.85 62%	0.42 62%	1.45 67%	-0.20 54%	-0.66 51%	0.60 64%	1.51 72%	2.28 82%
Best	10.4 1987	7.3 1991	8.1 2009	11.8 2009	7.8 2009	5.4 2019	8.2 2009	5.8 1986	7.8 2010	10.4 2011	9.9 2020	13.2 1991
Worst	-9.3 2009	-9.6 2009	-13.2 2020	-6.6 2022	-7.3 2010	-7.6 2008	-7.5 2002	-14.9 1998	-9.3 2001	-18.7 2008	-6.6 2008	-6.1 2018

Monthly Seasonality over the period Feb 1985 - Nov 2023

Monthly Returns

This section provides a visual/tabular representation of the performance variability in the Burton Malkiel Late Thirties to Early Forties Portfolio over time. It illustrates the distribution of monthly returns, showcasing the range and frequency of positive and negative returns.

BURTON MALKIEL LATE THIRTIES TO EARLY FORTIES PORTFOLIO

Monthly Returns Distribution

Data Source: 1 December 1993 - 30 November 2023 (30 Years)

Data Source: 1 January 1985 - 30 November 2023 (~39 years)

230 Positive Months (64%) - 130 Negative Months (36%)

304 Positive Months (65%) - 163 Negative Months (35%)

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Investment Returns, up to December 2007, are simulated.
They have been derived using the historical series of equivalent ETFs / Assets, instead of the actual ETFs of the portfolio.

In particular, the series derived from equivalent datasets are:

VTI - Vanguard Total Stock Market, up to December 2001
EEM - iShares MSCI Emerging Markets, up to December 2003

EFA - iShares MSCI EAFE, up to December 2001
VIG - Vanguard Dividend Appreciation, up to December 2006
VNQ - Vanguard Real Estate, up to December 2004

BIL - SPDR Blmbg Barclays 1-3 Mth T-Bill, up to December 2007
EMB - iShares JP Morgan USD Em Mkts Bd, up to December 2007
LQD - iShares Investment Grade Corporate Bond, up to December 2002

Portfolio efficiency

The following portfolios granted a higher return over 30 Years and a less severe drawdown at the same time.

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		30 Years Stats (%)			% Allocation
Portfolio	Author	Return▾	Dev.Std	Drawdown	Stocks	Bonds	Comm
Stocks/Bonds 80/20 Momentum		+10.76	12.35	-43.61	80	20	0
US Stocks Minimum Volatility		+9.58	13.72	-43.27	100	0	0
Warren Buffett Portfolio	Warren Buffett	+9.54	13.65	-45.52	90	10	0
Stocks/Bonds 60/40 Momentum		+9.34	9.56	-32.52	60	40	0
Stocks/Bonds 80/20		+9.02	12.49	-41.09	80	20	0
Simple Path to Wealth	JL Collins	+8.78	11.75	-38.53	75	25	0
Robust	Alpha Architect	+8.67	11.09	-44.20	70	20	10
Edge Select Aggressive	Merrill Lynch	+8.30	13.28	-45.65	84	16	0
Dedalo Four	Dedalo Invest	+8.28	12.41	-43.94	80	20	0
Mid-Fifties	Burton Malkiel	+8.27	13.01	-46.21	80	20	0
Aim Bold Strategy	Aim Ways	+8.24	9.93	-30.09	45	40	15
Late Thirties to Early Forties	Burton Malkiel	+8.19	13.63	-48.28	85	15	0

Here's a list containing the Best Classic Portfolios, with the highest returns over 30 Years and Very High Risk categorization.

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		30 Years Stats (%)			% Allocation
Portfolio	Author	Return▾	Dev.Std	Drawdown	Stocks	Bonds	Comm
Technology		+13.75	24.01	-81.08	100	0	0
US Stocks Momentum		+12.01	15.28	-53.85	100	0	0
Stocks/Bonds 80/20 Momentum		+10.76	12.35	-43.61	80	20	0
US Stocks		+9.90	15.52	-50.84	100	0	0
US Stocks Value		+9.71	15.36	-55.41	100	0	0

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