Burton Malkiel Late Thirties to Early Forties Portfolio: ETF allocation and returns

Data Source: from January 1985 to November 2023 (~39 years)
Consolidated Returns as of 30 November 2023
Live Update: Dec 01 2023
PORTFOLIO • LIVE PERFORMANCE (USD currency)
0.97%
1 Day
Dec 01 2023
0.97%
Current Month
December 2023

The Burton Malkiel Late Thirties to Early Forties Portfolio is a Very High Risk portfolio and can be implemented with 8 ETFs.

It's exposed for 85% on the Stock Market.

In the last 30 Years, the Burton Malkiel Late Thirties to Early Forties Portfolio obtained a 8.19% compound annual return, with a 13.63% standard deviation.

Table of contents

Asset Allocation and ETFs

The Burton Malkiel Late Thirties to Early Forties Portfolio has the following asset allocation:

85% Stocks
15% Fixed Income
0% Commodities

The Burton Malkiel Late Thirties to Early Forties Portfolio can be implemented with the following ETFs:

Weight (%) Ticker Currency ETF Name Investment Themes
32.50
VTI
USD Vanguard Total Stock Market Equity, U.S., Large Cap
16.25
EEM
USD iShares MSCI Emerging Markets Equity, Emerging Markets, Large Cap
16.25
EFA
USD iShares MSCI EAFE Equity, EAFE, Large Cap
10.00
VIG
USD Vanguard Dividend Appreciation Equity, U.S., Large Cap
10.00
VNQ
USD Vanguard Real Estate Real Estate, U.S.
5.00
BIL
USD SPDR Blmbg Barclays 1-3 Mth T-Bill Bond, U.S., Ultra Short-Term
5.00
EMB
USD iShares JP Morgan USD Em Mkts Bd Bond, Emerging Markets, All-Term
5.00
LQD
USD iShares Investment Grade Corporate Bond Bond, U.S., All-Term

Most of Lazy Portfolios are made of common components (asset classes), very simple and well defined. For a more complete view, find out the most common ETFs you can use to build your portfolio.

Portfolio and ETF Returns as of Nov 30, 2023

The Burton Malkiel Late Thirties to Early Forties Portfolio guaranteed the following returns.

Returns are calculated in USD, assuming: December 2023 return is calculated on the hypothesis of a newly built portfolio, with the starting asset allocation.
BURTON MALKIEL LATE THIRTIES TO EARLY FORTIES PORTFOLIO
Consolidated returns as of 30 November 2023
Live Update: Dec 01 2023
Swipe left to see all data
  Chg (%) Return (%) Return (%) as of Nov 30, 2023
  1 Day Time ET(*) Dec 2023 1M 6M 1Y 5Y 10Y 30Y MAX
(~39Y)
Burton Malkiel Late Thirties to Early Forties Portfolio 0.97 0.97 8.32 6.40 7.20 6.94 6.72 8.19 10.14
US Inflation Adjusted return 8.32 5.17 3.73 2.76 3.80 5.53 7.14
Components
VTI
USD Vanguard Total Stock Market 0.84 Dec 01 2023 0.84 9.42 10.04 12.72 11.71 11.16 9.90 11.00
EEM
USD iShares MSCI Emerging Markets 0.43 Dec 01 2023 0.43 7.79 4.40 2.42 1.46 1.42 4.65 8.63
EFA
USD iShares MSCI EAFE 1.05 Dec 01 2023 1.05 8.22 4.37 10.33 5.92 3.86 5.03 7.66
VIG
USD Vanguard Dividend Appreciation 0.75 Dec 01 2023 0.75 7.47 8.41 5.85 10.87 10.47 10.29 11.30
VNQ
USD Vanguard Real Estate 2.46 Dec 01 2023 2.46 12.08 4.30 -2.99 3.66 6.41 8.34 9.08
BIL
USD SPDR Blmbg Barclays 1-3 Mth T-Bill 0.02 Dec 01 2023 0.02 0.47 2.67 4.88 1.67 1.05 2.24 3.09
EMB
USD iShares JP Morgan USD Em Mkts Bd 1.53 Dec 01 2023 1.53 6.23 3.86 4.00 0.79 2.25 8.75 9.37
LQD
USD iShares Investment Grade Corporate Bond 1.20 Dec 01 2023 1.20 7.57 0.87 2.70 2.20 2.52 5.02 6.65
Returns over 1 year are annualized | Available data source: since Jan 1985
(*) Eastern Time (ET - America/New York)
US Inflation is updated to Oct 2023. Waiting for updates, inflation of Nov 2023 is set to 0%. Current inflation (annualized) is 1Y: 3.35% , 5Y: 4.07% , 10Y: 2.82% , 30Y: 2.52%

In 2022, the Burton Malkiel Late Thirties to Early Forties Portfolio granted a 1.97% dividend yield. If you are interested in getting periodic income, please refer to the Burton Malkiel Late Thirties to Early Forties Portfolio: Dividend Yield page.

Capital Growth as of Nov 30, 2023

An investment of 1$, since December 1993, now would be worth 10.62$, with a total return of 961.55% (8.19% annualized).

The Inflation Adjusted Capital now would be 5.03$, with a net total return of 403.05% (5.53% annualized).
An investment of 1$, since January 1985, now would be worth 42.85$, with a total return of 4184.52% (10.14% annualized).

The Inflation Adjusted Capital now would be 14.66$, with a net total return of 1366.37% (7.14% annualized).

Portfolio Metrics as of Nov 30, 2023

Metrics of Burton Malkiel Late Thirties to Early Forties Portfolio, updated as of 30 November 2023.

Metrics are calculated based on monthly returns, assuming:
BURTON MALKIEL LATE THIRTIES TO EARLY FORTIES PORTFOLIO
Advanced Metrics
Data Source: 1 January 1985 - 30 November 2023 (~39 years)
Swipe left to see all data
Metrics as of Nov 30, 2023
1M 3M 6M 1Y 3Y 5Y 10Y 20Y 30Y MAX
(~39Y)
Investment Return (%) 8.32 1.19 6.40 7.20 3.49 6.94 6.72 7.83 8.19 10.14
Infl. Adjusted Return (%) details 8.32 0.98 5.17 3.73 -2.12 2.76 3.80 5.10 5.53 7.14
US Inflation (%) 0.00 0.21 1.17 3.35 5.74 4.07 2.82 2.59 2.52 2.79
Waiting for updates, inflation of Nov 2023 is temporarily set to 0%. Returns / Inflation rates over 1 year are annualized.
DRAWDOWN
Inflation Adjusted:
Inflation Adjusted:
1Y 3Y 5Y 10Y 20Y 30Y MAX
Deepest Drawdown Depth (%) -9.38 -24.26 -24.26 -24.26 -48.28 -48.28 -48.28
Start to Recovery (# months) details 4* 23* 23* 23* 42 42 42
Start (yyyy mm) 2023 08 2022 01 2022 01 2022 01 2007 11 2007 11 2007 11
Start to Bottom (# months) 3 9 9 9 16 16 16
Bottom (yyyy mm) 2023 10 2022 09 2022 09 2022 09 2009 02 2009 02 2009 02
Bottom to End (# months) 1 14 14 14 26 26 26
End (yyyy mm) - - - - 2011 04 2011 04 2011 04
Longest Drawdown Depth (%) -3.75
same as
deepest

same as
deepest

same as
deepest

same as
deepest

same as
deepest

same as
deepest
Start to Recovery (# months) details 5
Start (yyyy mm) 2023 02 2022 01 2022 01 2022 01 2007 11 2007 11 2007 11
Start to Bottom (# months) 1 9 9 9 16 16 16
Bottom (yyyy mm) 2023 02 2022 09 2022 09 2022 09 2009 02 2009 02 2009 02
Bottom to End (# months) 4 14 14 14 26 26 26
End (yyyy mm) 2023 06 - - - 2011 04 2011 04 2011 04
Longest negative period (# months) details 11 34 34 34 63 63 63
Period Start (yyyy mm) 2022 12 2021 01 2021 01 2021 01 2003 12 2003 12 2003 12
Period End (yyyy mm) 2023 10 2023 10 2023 10 2023 10 2009 02 2009 02 2009 02
Annualized Return (%) -1.13 -0.62 -0.62 -0.62 -0.22 -0.22 -0.22
Drawdowns / Negative periods marked with * are in progress
Deepest Drawdown Depth (%) -9.96 -28.86 -28.86 -28.86 -49.07 -49.07 -49.07
Start to Recovery (# months) details 4* 23* 23* 23* 63 63 63
Start (yyyy mm) 2023 08 2022 01 2022 01 2022 01 2007 11 2007 11 2007 11
Start to Bottom (# months) 3 9 9 9 16 16 16
Bottom (yyyy mm) 2023 10 2022 09 2022 09 2022 09 2009 02 2009 02 2009 02
Bottom to End (# months) 1 14 14 14 47 47 47
End (yyyy mm) - - - - 2013 01 2013 01 2013 01
Longest Drawdown Depth (%) -4.28
same as
deepest

same as
deepest

same as
deepest

same as
deepest

same as
deepest

same as
deepest
Start to Recovery (# months) details 5
Start (yyyy mm) 2023 02 2022 01 2022 01 2022 01 2007 11 2007 11 2007 11
Start to Bottom (# months) 1 9 9 9 16 16 16
Bottom (yyyy mm) 2023 02 2022 09 2022 09 2022 09 2009 02 2009 02 2009 02
Bottom to End (# months) 4 14 14 14 47 47 47
End (yyyy mm) 2023 06 - - - 2013 01 2013 01 2013 01
Longest negative period (# months) details 11 36* 54 69 69 131 131
Period Start (yyyy mm) 2022 12 2020 12 2019 05 2018 02 2018 02 1998 04 1998 04
Period End (yyyy mm) 2023 10 2023 11 2023 10 2023 10 2023 10 2009 02 2009 02
Annualized Return (%) -4.61 -2.12 -0.03 -0.26 -0.26 -0.16 -0.16
Drawdowns / Negative periods marked with * are in progress
RISK INDICATORS
1Y 3Y 5Y 10Y 20Y 30Y MAX
Standard Deviation (%) 14.72 14.79 15.93 12.82 14.03 13.63 13.73
Sharpe Ratio 0.16 0.11 0.33 0.44 0.47 0.44 0.45
Sortino Ratio 0.24 0.15 0.44 0.59 0.61 0.57 0.58
Ulcer Index 3.78 10.78 9.12 6.99 10.88 9.88 9.11
Ratio: Return / Standard Deviation 0.49 0.24 0.44 0.52 0.56 0.60 0.74
Ratio: Return / Deepest Drawdown 0.77 0.14 0.29 0.28 0.16 0.17 0.21
% Positive Months details 50% 55% 60% 62% 64% 63% 65%
Positive Months 6 20 36 75 154 230 304
Negative Months 6 16 24 45 86 130 163
LONG TERM RETURNS
Inflation Adjusted:
Inflation Adjusted:
1Y 3Y 5Y 10Y 20Y 30Y MAX
Best 10 Years Return (%) - Annualized 6.72 12.91 12.91 15.78
Worst 10 Years Return (%) - Annualized 5.07 2.84 2.84
Best 10 Years Return (%) - Annualized 3.80 10.95 10.95 12.27
Worst 10 Years Return (%) - Annualized 3.07 0.26 0.26
ROLLING PERIOD RETURNS
Inflation Adjusted:
Inflation Adjusted:
1Y 3Y 5Y 10Y 20Y 30Y MAX
Over the latest 30Y
Best Rolling Return (%) - Annualized 57.14 25.05 19.97 12.91 9.44 8.19
Worst Rolling Return (%) - Annualized -41.31 -11.83 -1.97 2.84 6.06
% Positive Periods 76% 87% 99% 100% 100% 100%
Best Rolling Return (%) - Annualized 53.84 22.15 17.15 10.95 7.05 5.53
Worst Rolling Return (%) - Annualized -41.45 -13.74 -4.49 0.26 3.91
% Positive Periods 71% 83% 93% 100% 100% 100%
Over all the available data source (Jan 1985 - Nov 2023)
Best Rolling Return (%) - Annualized 57.14 25.05 20.20 15.78 13.03 11.23
Worst Rolling Return (%) - Annualized -41.31 -11.83 -1.97 2.84 6.06 7.78
% Positive Periods 78% 90% 99% 100% 100% 100%
Best Rolling Return (%) - Annualized 53.84 22.15 17.15 12.27 9.73 8.29
Worst Rolling Return (%) - Annualized -41.45 -13.74 -4.49 0.26 3.91 5.13
% Positive Periods 74% 87% 95% 100% 100% 100%
WITHDRAWAL RATES (WR)
1Y 3Y 5Y 10Y 20Y 30Y MAX
Safe WR (%) 33.45 22.73 12.53 8.47 7.38 11.24
Perpetual WR (%) 0.00 2.68 3.66 4.86 5.24 6.67
Terms and Definitions
  • Annualized Portfolio Return: it's the annualized geometric mean return of the portfolio
  • Deepest/Longest Drawdown: a drawdown refers to the decline in value from a relative peak value to a relative trough. The deepest (or maximum) drawdown is the maximum observed loss from a peak to a trough of a portfolio before a new peak is attained. The longest drawdown is the period observed from a peak to the subsequent peak with the greatest duration.
  • Longest negative period: it's the maximum period for which an overall negative return has been observed
  • Standard Deviation: it's a measure of the dispersion of returns around the mean
  • Sharpe Ratio: it's a measure of risk-adjusted performance of the portfolio. It's calculated by dividing the excess return of the portfolio over the risk-free rate by the portfolio standard deviation. The risk-free rate here considered is the 1-3 Mth T-Bill return
  • Sortino Ratio: another measure of risk-adjusted performance of the portfolio. It's a modification of the Sharpe Ratio (same formula but the denominator is the portfolio downside standard deviation)
  • Ulcer Index: it's a measure of downside risk that quantifies the depth and duration of drawdowns in an investment portfolio
  • Best/Worst 10Y returns: the best and the worst 10-year return over a time frame
  • Rolling Returns: N-year returns over a time frame, calculated over all the available data source (best, worst, % of positive returns). Each rolling period, longer than the longest negative period, yielded a non-negative minimum return.
  • Safe Withdrawal Rate (SWR): it's the percentage of the original portfolio balance that can be withdrawn at the end of each year with inflation adjustment, without the portfolio running out of money (dollar amount withdrawal).
  • Perpetual Withdrawal Rate (PWR): it's the percentage of portfolio balance that can be withdrawn at the end of each year, while retaining the inflation adjusted portfolio balance (percentage withdrawal).
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Portfolio Components Correlation

Correlation measures to what degree the returns of the two assets move in relation to each other.

Correlation coefficient is a numerical value between -1 and +1. If one variable goes up by a certain amount, the correlation coefficient indicates which way the other variable moves and by how much.
Asset correlations are calculated based on monthly returns.
COMPONENTS MONTHLY CORRELATIONS
Monthly correlations as of 30 November 2023
Swipe left to see all data
Asset
VTI
EEM
EFA
VIG
VNQ
BIL
EMB
LQD
VTI
-
0.87
0.89
0.94
0.93
0.08
0.94
0.85
EEM
0.87
-
0.92
0.82
0.87
-0.13
0.92
0.85
EFA
0.89
0.92
-
0.89
0.93
-0.15
0.94
0.91
VIG
0.94
0.82
0.89
-
0.90
0.23
0.92
0.82
VNQ
0.93
0.87
0.93
0.90
-
0.02
0.95
0.87
BIL
0.08
-0.13
-0.15
0.23
0.02
-
0.07
0.04
EMB
0.94
0.92
0.94
0.92
0.95
0.07
-
0.95
LQD
0.85
0.85
0.91
0.82
0.87
0.04
0.95
-
Asset
VTI
EEM
EFA
VIG
VNQ
BIL
EMB
LQD
VTI
-
0.75
0.90
0.95
0.87
-0.09
0.75
0.65
EEM
0.75
-
0.85
0.67
0.68
-0.04
0.80
0.67
EFA
0.90
0.85
-
0.89
0.83
-0.04
0.82
0.70
VIG
0.95
0.67
0.89
-
0.86
-0.10
0.71
0.60
VNQ
0.87
0.68
0.83
0.86
-
-0.14
0.78
0.70
BIL
-0.09
-0.04
-0.04
-0.10
-0.14
-
0.04
0.05
EMB
0.75
0.80
0.82
0.71
0.78
0.04
-
0.87
LQD
0.65
0.67
0.70
0.60
0.70
0.05
0.87
-
Asset
VTI
EEM
EFA
VIG
VNQ
BIL
EMB
LQD
VTI
-
0.71
0.87
0.95
0.75
-0.06
0.68
0.57
EEM
0.71
-
0.82
0.65
0.54
-0.03
0.75
0.58
EFA
0.87
0.82
-
0.85
0.67
-0.01
0.76
0.61
VIG
0.95
0.65
0.85
-
0.74
-0.05
0.64
0.53
VNQ
0.75
0.54
0.67
0.74
-
-0.12
0.69
0.69
BIL
-0.06
-0.03
-0.01
-0.05
-0.12
-
0.00
0.02
EMB
0.68
0.75
0.76
0.64
0.69
0.00
-
0.84
LQD
0.57
0.58
0.61
0.53
0.69
0.02
0.84
-
Asset
VTI
EEM
EFA
VIG
VNQ
BIL
EMB
LQD
VTI
-
0.75
0.84
0.76
0.63
-0.02
0.58
0.33
EEM
0.75
-
0.81
0.56
0.52
-0.04
0.67
0.30
EFA
0.84
0.81
-
0.61
0.60
-0.04
0.59
0.36
VIG
0.76
0.56
0.61
-
0.58
0.02
0.50
0.32
VNQ
0.63
0.52
0.60
0.58
-
-0.02
0.51
0.44
BIL
-0.02
-0.04
-0.04
0.02
-0.02
-
0.07
0.00
EMB
0.58
0.67
0.59
0.50
0.51
0.07
-
0.58
LQD
0.33
0.30
0.36
0.32
0.44
0.00
0.58
-
Asset
VTI
EEM
EFA
VIG
VNQ
BIL
EMB
LQD
VTI
-
0.71
0.72
0.81
0.63
0.00
0.56
0.32
EEM
0.71
-
0.66
0.58
0.49
0.03
0.62
0.28
EFA
0.72
0.66
-
0.56
0.53
0.03
0.53
0.33
VIG
0.81
0.58
0.56
-
0.59
0.03
0.50
0.31
VNQ
0.63
0.49
0.53
0.59
-
-0.02
0.51
0.40
BIL
0.00
0.03
0.03
0.03
-0.02
-
0.06
0.08
EMB
0.56
0.62
0.53
0.50
0.51
0.06
-
0.59
LQD
0.32
0.28
0.33
0.31
0.40
0.08
0.59
-

If you want to learn more about historical correlations, you can find out here how the main asset class are correlated to each other.

Drawdowns

A drawdown refers to the decline in value from a relative peak value to a relative trough. A maximum drawdown is the maximum observed loss from a peak to a trough of a portfolio before a new peak is attained.

BURTON MALKIEL LATE THIRTIES TO EARLY FORTIES PORTFOLIO
Drawdown periods
Drawdown periods - Inflation Adjusted
Data Source: 1 December 1993 - 30 November 2023 (30 Years)
Data Source: 1 January 1985 - 30 November 2023 (~39 years)
Inflation Adjusted:
Swipe left to see all data
Drawdown period
Recovery period
Total
Drawdown Start Bottom #Months End #Months #Months Ulcer Index
-48.28% Nov 2007 Feb 2009 16 Apr 2011 26 42 22.43
-24.26% Jan 2022 Sep 2022 9 in progress 14 23 13.35
-21.55% Sep 2000 Sep 2002 25 Oct 2003 13 38 11.57
-19.36% Jan 2020 Mar 2020 3 Aug 2020 5 8 8.83
-18.70% May 1998 Aug 1998 4 Mar 1999 7 11 7.76
-17.20% May 2011 Sep 2011 5 Sep 2012 12 17 6.44
-11.04% Feb 2018 Dec 2018 11 Apr 2019 4 15 4.65
-10.51% May 2015 Feb 2016 10 Jul 2016 5 15 5.57
-8.61% Feb 1994 Mar 1994 2 May 1995 14 16 5.77
-6.18% Apr 2004 Apr 2004 1 Oct 2004 6 7 3.53
-6.08% Aug 1997 Oct 1997 3 Feb 1998 4 7 3.73
-4.51% May 2019 May 2019 1 Jun 2019 1 2 2.60
-4.37% Apr 2000 May 2000 2 Aug 2000 3 5 2.16
-3.97% Sep 2021 Sep 2021 1 Oct 2021 1 2 2.29
-3.91% May 2006 May 2006 1 Aug 2006 3 4 2.49
Swipe left to see all data
Drawdown period
Recovery period
Total
Drawdown Start Bottom #Months End #Months #Months Ulcer Index
-49.07% Nov 2007 Feb 2009 16 Jan 2013 47 63 20.80
-28.86% Jan 2022 Sep 2022 9 in progress 14 23 18.78
-25.18% Jan 2000 Sep 2002 33 Dec 2003 15 48 13.09
-19.72% Jan 2020 Mar 2020 3 Aug 2020 5 8 8.98
-19.15% May 1998 Aug 1998 4 Apr 1999 8 12 7.87
-12.23% Feb 2018 Dec 2018 11 Oct 2019 10 21 5.13
-11.06% Mar 2015 Feb 2016 12 Jul 2016 5 17 5.96
-10.99% Feb 1994 Jan 1995 12 Jul 1995 6 18 7.11
-6.72% Aug 1997 Oct 1997 3 Feb 1998 4 7 4.13
-6.47% Apr 2004 Apr 2004 1 Oct 2004 6 7 4.19
-4.95% Mar 2005 Apr 2005 2 Jul 2005 3 5 2.79
-4.72% Jul 1999 Sep 1999 3 Nov 1999 2 5 2.58
-4.38% May 2006 May 2006 1 Sep 2006 4 5 2.75
-4.23% Sep 2021 Sep 2021 1 Dec 2021 3 4 2.47
-4.05% May 2013 Jun 2013 2 Sep 2013 3 5 2.27
Swipe left to see all data
Drawdown period
Recovery period
Total
Drawdown Start Bottom #Months End #Months #Months Ulcer Index
-48.28% Nov 2007 Feb 2009 16 Apr 2011 26 42 22.43
-24.26% Jan 2022 Sep 2022 9 in progress 14 23 13.35
-22.99% Sep 1987 Nov 1987 3 Jan 1989 14 17 11.54
-21.55% Sep 2000 Sep 2002 25 Oct 2003 13 38 11.57
-19.36% Jan 2020 Mar 2020 3 Aug 2020 5 8 8.83
-18.70% May 1998 Aug 1998 4 Mar 1999 7 11 7.76
-17.29% Aug 1990 Sep 1990 2 Feb 1991 5 7 10.02
-17.20% May 2011 Sep 2011 5 Sep 2012 12 17 6.44
-11.04% Feb 2018 Dec 2018 11 Apr 2019 4 15 4.65
-10.51% May 2015 Feb 2016 10 Jul 2016 5 15 5.57
-8.67% Jan 1990 Apr 1990 4 Jul 1990 3 7 4.80
-8.61% Feb 1994 Mar 1994 2 May 1995 14 16 5.77
-6.18% Apr 2004 Apr 2004 1 Oct 2004 6 7 3.53
-6.08% Aug 1997 Oct 1997 3 Feb 1998 4 7 3.73
-5.35% Sep 1986 Sep 1986 1 Jan 1987 4 5 3.01
Swipe left to see all data
Drawdown period
Recovery period
Total
Drawdown Start Bottom #Months End #Months #Months Ulcer Index
-49.07% Nov 2007 Feb 2009 16 Jan 2013 47 63 20.80
-28.86% Jan 2022 Sep 2022 9 in progress 14 23 18.78
-25.18% Jan 2000 Sep 2002 33 Dec 2003 15 48 13.09
-23.66% Sep 1987 Nov 1987 3 May 1989 18 21 12.12
-20.16% Jan 1990 Sep 1990 9 May 1991 8 17 9.55
-19.72% Jan 2020 Mar 2020 3 Aug 2020 5 8 8.98
-19.15% May 1998 Aug 1998 4 Apr 1999 8 12 7.87
-12.23% Feb 2018 Dec 2018 11 Oct 2019 10 21 5.13
-11.06% Mar 2015 Feb 2016 12 Jul 2016 5 17 5.96
-10.99% Feb 1994 Jan 1995 12 Jul 1995 6 18 7.11
-6.72% Aug 1997 Oct 1997 3 Feb 1998 4 7 4.13
-6.47% Apr 2004 Apr 2004 1 Oct 2004 6 7 4.19
-5.78% Sep 1986 Sep 1986 1 Jan 1987 4 5 3.43
-4.96% Jun 1991 Jun 1991 1 Aug 1991 2 3 2.65
-4.95% Mar 2005 Apr 2005 2 Jul 2005 3 5 2.79

Rolling Returns

( more details)

A rolling return is a measure of investment performance that calculates the return of an investment over a set period of time, with the starting date rolling forward. This approach can provide a more accurate representation of the investment's historical performance and helps investors to evaluate the investment's consistency over time.

BURTON MALKIEL LATE THIRTIES TO EARLY FORTIES PORTFOLIO
Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Returns - Inflation Adjusted
Data Source: 1 December 1993 - 30 November 2023 (30 Years)
Data Source: 1 January 1985 - 30 November 2023 (~39 years)
Inflation Adjusted:
Swipe left to see all data
Rolling
Period
Worst Period
15th Percentile
50th Percentile
85th Percentile
Best Period
Latest Negative
Periods
Ann.
Return
From
To
Growth
of 1$
Ann.
Return
Growth
of 1$
Ann.
Return
Growth
of 1$
Ann.
Return
Growth
of 1$
Ann.
Return
From
To
Growth
of 1$
1Y -41.31 03/2008
02/2009
0.58$ -4.91 0.95$ 10.91 1.10$ 21.28 1.21$ 57.14 03/2009
02/2010
1.57$ 7.20 23.78%
2Y -22.98 03/2007
02/2009
0.59$ -1.12 0.97$ 9.53 1.19$ 17.77 1.38$ 37.96 03/2009
02/2011
1.90$ -2.19 17.21%
3Y -11.83 03/2006
02/2009
0.68$ 2.71 1.08$ 9.10 1.29$ 14.51 1.50$ 25.05 03/2009
02/2012
1.95$ 3.49 12.31%
5Y -1.97 03/2004
02/2009
0.90$ 4.26 1.23$ 7.51 1.43$ 12.86 1.83$ 19.97 11/2002
10/2007
2.48$ 6.94 1.00%
7Y 1.83 03/2002
02/2009
1.13$ 5.84 1.48$ 8.16 1.73$ 9.96 1.94$ 13.39 03/2009
02/2016
2.40$ 7.77 0.00%
10Y 2.84 03/1999
02/2009
1.32$ 5.83 1.76$ 8.45 2.25$ 10.21 2.64$ 12.91 03/2009
02/2019
3.36$ 6.72 0.00%
15Y 4.81 10/2007
09/2022
2.02$ 6.90 2.72$ 7.73 3.05$ 8.64 3.46$ 10.43 02/2003
01/2018
4.42$ 9.68 0.00%
20Y 6.06 04/2000
03/2020
3.24$ 7.47 4.22$ 8.11 4.75$ 9.00 5.60$ 9.44 03/1995
02/2015
6.07$ 7.83 0.00%
30Y 8.19 12/1993
11/2023
10.61$ 8.19 10.61$ 8.19 10.61$ 8.19 10.61$ 8.19 12/1993
11/2023
10.61$ 8.19 0.00%
Annualized rolling and percentiles/median returns over full calendar month periods
Swipe left to see all data
Rolling
Period
Worst Period
15th Percentile
50th Percentile
85th Percentile
Best Period
Latest Negative
Periods
Ann.
Return
From
To
Growth
of 1$
Ann.
Return
Growth
of 1$
Ann.
Return
Growth
of 1$
Ann.
Return
Growth
of 1$
Ann.
Return
From
To
Growth
of 1$
1Y -41.45 03/2008
02/2009
0.58$ -7.65 0.92$ 8.50 1.08$ 18.40 1.18$ 53.84 03/2009
02/2010
1.53$ 3.73 28.08%
2Y -24.57 03/2007
02/2009
0.56$ -4.17 0.91$ 7.39 1.15$ 14.66 1.31$ 35.09 03/2009
02/2011
1.82$ -7.04 20.47%
3Y -13.74 03/2006
02/2009
0.64$ -1.03 0.96$ 6.83 1.21$ 11.99 1.40$ 22.15 03/2009
02/2012
1.82$ -2.12 16.62%
5Y -4.49 03/2004
02/2009
0.79$ 1.35 1.06$ 5.39 1.30$ 10.25 1.62$ 17.15 03/2009
02/2014
2.20$ 2.76 6.64%
7Y -0.71 03/2002
02/2009
0.95$ 3.48 1.27$ 5.87 1.49$ 7.44 1.65$ 11.60 03/2009
02/2016
2.15$ 4.10 0.72%
10Y 0.26 03/1999
02/2009
1.02$ 3.72 1.44$ 6.05 1.79$ 7.53 2.06$ 10.95 03/2009
02/2019
2.82$ 3.80 0.00%
15Y 2.37 10/2007
09/2022
1.42$ 4.39 1.90$ 5.37 2.19$ 6.14 2.44$ 8.17 02/2003
01/2018
3.24$ 7.00 0.00%
20Y 3.91 04/2000
03/2020
2.15$ 5.17 2.74$ 5.73 3.04$ 6.50 3.52$ 7.05 03/1995
02/2015
3.90$ 5.10 0.00%
30Y 5.53 12/1993
11/2023
5.03$ 5.53 5.03$ 5.53 5.03$ 5.53 5.03$ 5.53 12/1993
11/2023
5.03$ 5.53 0.00%
Annualized rolling and percentiles/median returns over full calendar month periods
Swipe left to see all data
Rolling
Period
Worst Period
15th Percentile
50th Percentile
85th Percentile
Best Period
Latest Negative
Periods
Ann.
Return
From
To
Growth
of 1$
Ann.
Return
Growth
of 1$
Ann.
Return
Growth
of 1$
Ann.
Return
Growth
of 1$
Ann.
Return
From
To
Growth
of 1$
1Y -41.31 03/2008
02/2009
0.58$ -4.08 0.95$ 12.50 1.12$ 23.20 1.23$ 57.14 03/2009
02/2010
1.57$ 7.20 21.93%
2Y -22.98 03/2007
02/2009
0.59$ 1.71 1.03$ 10.54 1.22$ 18.45 1.40$ 37.96 03/2009
02/2011
1.90$ -2.19 13.06%
3Y -11.83 03/2006
02/2009
0.68$ 4.14 1.12$ 10.86 1.36$ 16.08 1.56$ 25.05 03/2009
02/2012
1.95$ 3.49 9.26%
5Y -1.97 03/2004
02/2009
0.90$ 4.94 1.27$ 9.85 1.59$ 15.02 2.01$ 20.20 01/1985
12/1989
2.50$ 6.94 0.74%
7Y 1.83 03/2002
02/2009
1.13$ 6.22 1.52$ 9.10 1.83$ 13.87 2.48$ 18.42 10/1990
09/1997
3.26$ 7.77 0.00%
10Y 2.84 03/1999
02/2009
1.32$ 6.30 1.84$ 9.12 2.39$ 13.38 3.51$ 15.78 12/1987
11/1997
4.32$ 6.72 0.00%
15Y 4.81 10/2007
09/2022
2.02$ 7.14 2.81$ 8.39 3.35$ 11.51 5.12$ 15.61 01/1985
12/1999
8.80$ 9.68 0.00%
20Y 6.06 04/2000
03/2020
3.24$ 7.68 4.38$ 8.94 5.53$ 11.58 8.94$ 13.03 01/1985
12/2004
11.57$ 7.83 0.00%
30Y 7.78 11/1993
10/2023
9.46$ 8.64 12.02$ 9.60 15.66$ 10.12 18.02$ 11.23 01/1985
12/2014
24.33$ 8.19 0.00%
Annualized rolling and percentiles/median returns over full calendar month periods
Swipe left to see all data
Rolling
Period
Worst Period
15th Percentile
50th Percentile
85th Percentile
Best Period
Latest Negative
Periods
Ann.
Return
From
To
Growth
of 1$
Ann.
Return
Growth
of 1$
Ann.
Return
Growth
of 1$
Ann.
Return
Growth
of 1$
Ann.
Return
From
To
Growth
of 1$
1Y -41.45 03/2008
02/2009
0.58$ -6.64 0.93$ 9.63 1.09$ 19.88 1.19$ 53.84 03/2009
02/2010
1.53$ 3.73 25.66%
2Y -24.57 03/2007
02/2009
0.56$ -0.40 0.99$ 7.83 1.16$ 15.17 1.32$ 35.09 03/2009
02/2011
1.82$ -7.04 15.77%
3Y -13.74 03/2006
02/2009
0.64$ 1.29 1.03$ 7.77 1.25$ 12.24 1.41$ 22.15 03/2009
02/2012
1.82$ -2.12 12.73%
5Y -4.49 03/2004
02/2009
0.79$ 2.19 1.11$ 7.24 1.41$ 11.72 1.74$ 17.15 03/2009
02/2014
2.20$ 2.76 4.90%
7Y -0.71 03/2002
02/2009
0.95$ 3.78 1.29$ 6.83 1.58$ 10.41 2.00$ 15.17 10/1990
09/1997
2.68$ 4.10 0.52%
10Y 0.26 03/1999
02/2009
1.02$ 4.28 1.52$ 6.78 1.92$ 9.81 2.54$ 12.27 10/1990
09/2000
3.18$ 3.80 0.00%
15Y 2.37 10/2007
09/2022
1.42$ 4.78 2.01$ 6.00 2.39$ 8.41 3.35$ 12.05 01/1985
12/1999
5.50$ 7.00 0.00%
20Y 3.91 04/2000
03/2020
2.15$ 5.38 2.85$ 6.35 3.42$ 8.18 4.82$ 9.73 01/1985
12/2004
6.40$ 5.10 0.00%
30Y 5.13 11/1993
10/2023
4.48$ 5.99 5.73$ 6.86 7.32$ 7.51 8.77$ 8.29 01/1985
12/2014
10.91$ 5.53 0.00%
Annualized rolling and percentiles/median returns over full calendar month periods

If you need a deeper detail about rolling returns, please refer to the Burton Malkiel Late Thirties to Early Forties Portfolio: Rolling Returns page.

Seasonality

In which months is it better to invest in Burton Malkiel Late Thirties to Early Forties Portfolio?

Both the Average Return and the Gain Frequency (Win %) are useful to get an idea of what happened in the past.
For further information about the seasonality, check the Asset Class Seasonality page.
Swipe left to see all data
Monthly Average Return (%) and Gain Frequency
Return (%) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Average
Gain Frequency
1.84
40%
-1.85
40%
-1.15
80%
1.86
80%
-0.17
40%
1.55
80%
2.87
100%
-0.30
40%
-3.53
20%
1.41
60%
5.14
80%
0.34
60%
Best 7.8
2019
1.9
2019
2.5
2021
8.6
2020
4.1
2020
5.4
2019
5.6
2022
4.2
2020
1.6
2019
4.6
2022
9.9
2020
4.2
2020
Worst -4.3
2022
-6.0
2020
-13.2
2020
-6.6
2022
-4.5
2019
-6.7
2022
0.2
2019
-3.7
2022
-9.0
2022
-2.5
2023
-2.3
2021
-6.1
2018
Monthly Seasonality over the period Feb 1985 - Nov 2023
Swipe left to see all data
Monthly Average Return (%) and Gain Frequency
Return (%) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Average
Gain Frequency
0.78
40%
-0.34
50%
0.22
70%
1.32
80%
0.34
60%
0.91
70%
2.26
90%
-0.36
50%
-2.13
40%
0.90
60%
3.07
80%
0.37
60%
Best 7.8
2019
4.3
2014
7.5
2016
8.6
2020
4.1
2020
5.4
2019
5.6
2022
4.2
2020
1.6
2019
6.0
2015
9.9
2020
4.2
2020
Worst -4.3
2022
-6.0
2020
-13.2
2020
-6.6
2022
-4.5
2019
-6.7
2022
-1.2
2014
-5.9
2015
-9.0
2022
-6.3
2018
-2.3
2021
-6.1
2018
Monthly Seasonality over the period Feb 1985 - Nov 2023
Swipe left to see all data
Monthly Average Return (%) and Gain Frequency
Return (%) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Average
Gain Frequency
1.28
56%
0.51
64%
0.86
69%
1.78
79%
0.85
62%
0.42
62%
1.45
67%
-0.20
54%
-0.66
51%
0.60
64%
1.51
72%
2.28
82%
Best 10.4
1987
7.3
1991
8.1
2009
11.8
2009
7.8
2009
5.4
2019
8.2
2009
5.8
1986
7.8
2010
10.4
2011
9.9
2020
13.2
1991
Worst -9.3
2009
-9.6
2009
-13.2
2020
-6.6
2022
-7.3
2010
-7.6
2008
-7.5
2002
-14.9
1998
-9.3
2001
-18.7
2008
-6.6
2008
-6.1
2018
Monthly Seasonality over the period Feb 1985 - Nov 2023

Monthly Returns

This section provides a visual/tabular representation of the performance variability in the Burton Malkiel Late Thirties to Early Forties Portfolio over time. It illustrates the distribution of monthly returns, showcasing the range and frequency of positive and negative returns.

BURTON MALKIEL LATE THIRTIES TO EARLY FORTIES PORTFOLIO
Monthly Returns Distribution
Data Source: 1 December 1993 - 30 November 2023 (30 Years)
Data Source: 1 January 1985 - 30 November 2023 (~39 years)
230 Positive Months (64%) - 130 Negative Months (36%)
304 Positive Months (65%) - 163 Negative Months (35%)
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(Scroll down to see all data)
Investment Returns, up to December 2007, are simulated.
They have been derived using the historical series of equivalent ETFs / Assets, instead of the actual ETFs of the portfolio.

In particular, the series derived from equivalent datasets are:
  • VTI - Vanguard Total Stock Market, up to December 2001
  • EEM - iShares MSCI Emerging Markets, up to December 2003
  • EFA - iShares MSCI EAFE, up to December 2001
  • VIG - Vanguard Dividend Appreciation, up to December 2006
  • VNQ - Vanguard Real Estate, up to December 2004
  • BIL - SPDR Blmbg Barclays 1-3 Mth T-Bill, up to December 2007
  • EMB - iShares JP Morgan USD Em Mkts Bd, up to December 2007
  • LQD - iShares Investment Grade Corporate Bond, up to December 2002

Portfolio efficiency

The following portfolios granted a higher return over 30 Years and a less severe drawdown at the same time.

Swipe left to see all data
30 Years Stats (%)
% Allocation
Portfolio Author Return Dev.Std Drawdown Stocks Bonds Comm
Stocks/Bonds 80/20 Momentum +10.76 12.35 -43.61 80 20 0
US Stocks Minimum Volatility +9.58 13.72 -43.27 100 0 0
Warren Buffett Portfolio Warren Buffett +9.54 13.65 -45.52 90 10 0
Stocks/Bonds 60/40 Momentum +9.34 9.56 -32.52 60 40 0
Stocks/Bonds 80/20 +9.02 12.49 -41.09 80 20 0
Simple Path to Wealth JL Collins +8.78 11.75 -38.53 75 25 0
Robust Alpha Architect +8.67 11.09 -44.20 70 20 10
Edge Select Aggressive Merrill Lynch +8.30 13.28 -45.65 84 16 0
Dedalo Four Dedalo Invest +8.28 12.41 -43.94 80 20 0
Mid-Fifties Burton Malkiel +8.27 13.01 -46.21 80 20 0
Aim Bold Strategy Aim Ways +8.24 9.93 -30.09 45 40 15
Late Thirties to Early Forties Burton Malkiel +8.19 13.63 -48.28 85 15 0

Here's a list containing the Best Classic Portfolios, with the highest returns over 30 Years and Very High Risk categorization.

Swipe left to see all data
30 Years Stats (%)
% Allocation
Portfolio Author Return Dev.Std Drawdown Stocks Bonds Comm
Technology +13.75 24.01 -81.08 100 0 0
US Stocks Momentum +12.01 15.28 -53.85 100 0 0
Stocks/Bonds 80/20 Momentum +10.76 12.35 -43.61 80 20 0
US Stocks +9.90 15.52 -50.84 100 0 0
US Stocks Value +9.71 15.36 -55.41 100 0 0
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