Bill Bernstein Sheltered Sam 20/80 Portfolio: ETF allocation and returns

Data Source: from January 1985 to May 2023 (~38 years)
Consolidated Returns as of 31 May 2023
Live Update: Jun 02 2023
PORTFOLIO • LIVE PERFORMANCE (USD currency)
0.15%
1 Day
Jun 02 2023
0.47%
Current Month
June 2023

The Bill Bernstein Sheltered Sam 20/80 Portfolio is a Low Risk portfolio and can be implemented with 12 ETFs.

It's exposed for 19.4% on the Stock Market and for 0.6% on Commodities.

In the last 30 Years, the Bill Bernstein Sheltered Sam 20/80 Portfolio obtained a 5.15% compound annual return, with a 4.12% standard deviation.

Asset Allocation and ETFs

The Bill Bernstein Sheltered Sam 20/80 Portfolio has the following asset allocation:

19.4% Stocks
80% Fixed Income
0.6% Commodities

The Bill Bernstein Sheltered Sam 20/80 Portfolio can be implemented with the following ETFs:

Weight (%) Ticker ETF Name Investment Themes
5.00
VTV
Vanguard Value Equity, U.S., Large Cap, Value
4.00
VV
Vanguard Large-Cap Equity, U.S., Large Cap
3.00
IJS
iShares S&P Small-Cap 600 Value Equity, U.S., Small Cap, Value
2.00
VNQ
Vanguard Real Estate Real Estate, U.S.
1.40
EFV
iShares MSCI EAFE Value Equity, EAFE, Large Cap, Value
1.00
IJR
iShares Core S&P Small-Cap Equity, U.S., Small Cap
1.00
EEM
iShares MSCI Emerging Markets Equity, Emerging Markets, Large Cap
1.00
VGK
Vanguard FTSE Europe Equity, Developed Europe, Large Cap
1.00
VPL
Vanguard FTSE Pacific Equity, Developed Asia Pacific, Large Cap
48.00
SHY
iShares 1-3 Year Treasury Bond Bond, U.S., Short Term
32.00
TIP
iShares TIPS Bond Bond, U.S., All-Term
0.60
GLTR
Aberdeen Standard Physical Precious Metals Basket Shares Commodity, Broad Precious Metals

Most of Lazy Portfolios are made of common components (asset classes), very simple and well defined. For a more complete view, find out the most common ETFs you can use to build your portfolio.

Portfolio and ETF Returns as of May 31, 2023

The Bill Bernstein Sheltered Sam 20/80 Portfolio guaranteed the following returns.

Portfolio returns are calculated in USD, assuming: June 2023 return is calculated on the hypothesis of a newly built portfolio, with the starting asset allocation.
BILL BERNSTEIN SHELTERED SAM 20/80 PORTFOLIO
Consolidated returns as of 31 May 2023
Live Update: Jun 02 2023
Swipe left to see all data
    Chg (%) Return (%) Return (%) as of May 31, 2023
    1 Day Time ET(*) Jun 2023 1M 6M 1Y 5Y 10Y 30Y MAX
(~38Y)
Bill Bernstein Sheltered Sam 20/80 Portfolio 0.15 0.47 -1.29 0.35 -2.60 2.50 2.54 5.15 6.64
US Inflation Adjusted return -1.29 -1.52 -6.16 -1.27 -0.14 2.57 3.74
Components
VTV
Vanguard Value 1.97 Jun 02 2023 2.64 -4.12 -6.58 -3.93 8.08 9.73 9.03 9.87
VV
Vanguard Large-Cap 1.46 Jun 02 2023 2.50 0.73 3.57 2.95 10.80 11.85 9.84 8.93
IJS
iShares S&P Small-Cap 600 Value 4.49 Jun 02 2023 5.32 -3.66 -9.53 -8.86 3.20 8.10 10.13 12.72
VNQ
Vanguard Real Estate 2.44 Jun 02 2023 2.45 -3.96 -6.98 -15.87 4.07 5.34 8.35 6.94
EFV
iShares MSCI EAFE Value 1.61 Jun 02 2023 3.17 -5.22 3.57 0.31 1.52 3.09 5.45 9.87
IJR
iShares Core S&P Small-Cap 4.12 Jun 02 2023 5.01 -1.67 -8.53 -7.27 3.75 8.89 9.76 11.34
EEM
iShares MSCI Emerging Markets 1.72 Jun 02 2023 3.53 -2.40 -1.90 -8.29 -1.39 1.39 5.57 7.36
VGK
Vanguard FTSE Europe 1.18 Jun 02 2023 2.37 -5.12 7.20 4.26 4.15 5.05 7.11 8.65
VPL
Vanguard FTSE Pacific 1.82 Jun 02 2023 3.85 -1.16 3.07 -0.43 1.34 4.54 2.62 8.21
SHY
iShares 1-3 Year Treasury Bond -0.28 Jun 02 2023 -0.13 -0.38 1.41 -0.24 0.88 0.65 3.03 4.43
TIP
iShares TIPS Bond -0.49 Jun 02 2023 -0.33 -1.71 0.52 -5.71 2.20 1.42 5.21 6.80
GLTR
Aberdeen Standard Physical Precious Metals Basket Shares -1.07 Jun 02 2023 0.14 -3.62 3.86 1.74 7.14 1.81 5.98 8.47
Returns over 1 year are annualized | Available data source: since Jan 1985
(*) Eastern Time (ET - America/New York)
US Inflation is updated to Apr 2023. Waiting for updates, inflation of May 2023 is set to 0%. Current inflation (annualized) is 1Y: 3.79% , 5Y: 3.81% , 10Y: 2.68% , 30Y: 2.51%
Live update: World Markets and Indexes

In 2022, the Bill Bernstein Sheltered Sam 20/80 Portfolio granted a 2.88% dividend yield. If you are interested in getting periodic income, please refer to the Bill Bernstein Sheltered Sam 20/80 Portfolio: Dividend Yield page.

Portfolio Metrics as of May 31, 2023

Metrics of Bill Bernstein Sheltered Sam 20/80 Portfolio, updated as of 31 May 2023.

Portfolio metrics are calculated based on monthly returns, assuming:
BILL BERNSTEIN SHELTERED SAM 20/80 PORTFOLIO
Portfolio Metrics
Data Source: 1 January 1985 - 31 May 2023 (~38 years)
Swipe left to see all data
Metrics as of May 31, 2023
1M 3M 6M 1Y 3Y 5Y 10Y 20Y 30Y MAX
(~38Y)
Portfolio Return (%) -1.29 0.63 0.35 -2.60 1.58 2.50 2.54 3.90 5.15 6.64
US Inflation (%) 0.00 0.84 1.90 3.79 5.77 3.81 2.68 2.55 2.51 2.79
Infl. Adjusted Return (%) -1.29 -0.21 -1.52 -6.16 -3.96 -1.27 -0.14 1.32 2.57 3.74
Waiting for updates, inflation of May 2023 is temporarily set to 0%. Returns / Inflation rates over 1 year are annualized.
RISK INDICATORS
Standard Deviation (%) 7.94 5.60 5.07 4.05 4.15 4.12 4.48
Sharpe Ratio -0.73 0.10 0.23 0.44 0.66 0.72 0.59
Sortino Ratio -1.00 0.13 0.30 0.57 0.84 0.94 0.81
MAXIMUM DRAWDOWN
Drawdown Depth (%) -6.83 -11.24 -11.24 -11.24 -11.24 -11.24 -11.24
Start (yyyy mm) 2022 06 2022 01 2022 01 2022 01 2022 01 2022 01 2022 01
Bottom (yyyy mm) 2022 09 2022 09 2022 09 2022 09 2022 09 2022 09 2022 09
Start to Bottom (# months) 4 9 9 9 9 9 9
Start to Recovery (# months) in progress
> 12
> 17
> 17
> 17
> 17
> 17
> 17
ROLLING PERIOD RETURNS - Annualized
Best Return (%) 28.71 14.65 12.97 10.67 9.56 7.83
Worst Return (%) -10.83 0.78 1.84 2.27 3.90 5.15
% Positive Periods 91% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
MONTHS
Positive 0 2 3 6 22 40 78 166 249 321
Negative 1 1 3 6 14 20 42 74 111 140
% Positive 0% 67% 50% 50% 61% 67% 65% 69% 69% 70%
WITHDRAWAL RATES (WR)
Safe WR (%) 33.44 20.69 10.63 6.40 5.82 7.12
Perpetual WR (%) 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.31 2.51 3.60
Terms and Definitions
  • Annualized Portfolio Return: it's the annualized geometric mean return of the portfolio
  • Standard Deviation: it's a measure of the dispersion of returns around the mean
  • Sharpe Ratio: it's a measure of risk-adjusted performance of the portfolio. It's calculated by dividing the excess return of the portfolio over the risk-free rate by the portfolio standard deviation. The risk-free rate here considered is the 1-3 Mth T-Bill return.
  • Sortino Ratio: another measure of risk-adjusted performance of the portfolio. It's a modification of the Sharpe Ratio (same formula but the denominator is the portfolio downside standard deviation).
  • Maximum Drawdown: a drawdown refers to the decline in value from a relative peak value to a relative trough. A maximum drawdown is the maximum observed loss from a peak to a trough of a portfolio before a new peak is attained.
  • Rolling Returns: returns over a time frame (best, worst, % of positive returns).
  • Pos./Neg. Months: number of months with positive/negative return.
  • Safe Withdrawal Rate (SWR): it's the percentage of the original portfolio balance that can be withdrawn at the end of each year with inflation adjustment, without the portfolio running out of money (dollar amount withdrawal).
  • Perpetual Withdrawal Rate (PWR): it's the percentage of portfolio balance that can be withdrawn at the end of each year, while retaining the inflation adjusted portfolio balance (percentage withdrawal).

Portfolio Components Correlation

Correlation measures to what degree the returns of the two assets move in relation to each other.

Correlation coefficient is a numerical value between -1 and +1.

If one variable goes up by a certain amount, the correlation coefficient indicates which way the other variable moves and by how much.

Asset correlations are calculated based on monthly returns.
COMPONENTS MONTHLY CORRELATIONS
Monthly correlations as of 31 May 2023
Swipe left to see all data
Asset
VTV
VV
IJS
VNQ
EFV
IJR
EEM
VGK
VPL
SHY
TIP
GLTR
VTV
-
0.89
0.89
0.82
0.87
0.88
0.58
0.89
0.78
0.50
0.77
0.29
VV
0.89
-
0.86
0.91
0.80
0.89
0.64
0.87
0.86
0.66
0.91
0.32
IJS
0.89
0.86
-
0.87
0.78
0.99
0.50
0.79
0.70
0.34
0.69
0.03
VNQ
0.82
0.91
0.87
-
0.86
0.88
0.76
0.89
0.90
0.66
0.88
0.36
EFV
0.87
0.80
0.78
0.86
-
0.76
0.81
0.98
0.92
0.64
0.76
0.53
IJR
0.88
0.89
0.99
0.88
0.76
-
0.50
0.79
0.72
0.36
0.73
0.03
EEM
0.58
0.64
0.50
0.76
0.81
0.50
-
0.79
0.93
0.74
0.67
0.67
VGK
0.89
0.87
0.79
0.89
0.98
0.79
0.79
-
0.93
0.70
0.84
0.55
VPL
0.78
0.86
0.70
0.90
0.92
0.72
0.93
0.93
-
0.79
0.85
0.64
SHY
0.50
0.66
0.34
0.66
0.64
0.36
0.74
0.70
0.79
-
0.83
0.81
TIP
0.77
0.91
0.69
0.88
0.76
0.73
0.67
0.84
0.85
0.83
-
0.46
GLTR
0.29
0.32
0.03
0.36
0.53
0.03
0.67
0.55
0.64
0.81
0.46
-
Asset
VTV
VV
IJS
VNQ
EFV
IJR
EEM
VGK
VPL
SHY
TIP
GLTR
VTV
-
0.92
0.90
0.81
0.89
0.91
0.70
0.89
0.83
-0.06
0.43
0.25
VV
0.92
-
0.85
0.84
0.80
0.89
0.71
0.88
0.85
0.08
0.60
0.31
IJS
0.90
0.85
-
0.76
0.85
0.99
0.72
0.82
0.81
-0.12
0.38
0.15
VNQ
0.81
0.84
0.76
-
0.72
0.79
0.64
0.79
0.73
0.08
0.64
0.30
EFV
0.89
0.80
0.85
0.72
-
0.83
0.81
0.96
0.90
0.01
0.39
0.30
IJR
0.91
0.89
0.99
0.79
0.83
-
0.73
0.84
0.83
-0.09
0.44
0.18
EEM
0.70
0.71
0.72
0.64
0.81
0.73
-
0.81
0.86
0.18
0.44
0.45
VGK
0.89
0.88
0.82
0.79
0.96
0.84
0.81
-
0.91
0.13
0.54
0.39
VPL
0.83
0.85
0.81
0.73
0.90
0.83
0.86
0.91
-
0.19
0.53
0.35
SHY
-0.06
0.08
-0.12
0.08
0.01
-0.09
0.18
0.13
0.19
-
0.61
0.30
TIP
0.43
0.60
0.38
0.64
0.39
0.44
0.44
0.54
0.53
0.61
-
0.44
GLTR
0.25
0.31
0.15
0.30
0.30
0.18
0.45
0.39
0.35
0.30
0.44
-
Asset
VTV
VV
IJS
VNQ
EFV
IJR
EEM
VGK
VPL
SHY
TIP
GLTR
VTV
-
0.93
0.88
0.68
0.85
0.88
0.66
0.84
0.78
-0.11
0.32
0.15
VV
0.93
-
0.82
0.72
0.79
0.86
0.69
0.85
0.81
0.02
0.46
0.21
IJS
0.88
0.82
-
0.65
0.76
0.99
0.62
0.73
0.73
-0.15
0.27
0.07
VNQ
0.68
0.72
0.65
-
0.57
0.67
0.52
0.63
0.61
0.14
0.62
0.25
EFV
0.85
0.79
0.76
0.57
-
0.75
0.79
0.96
0.88
-0.03
0.33
0.22
IJR
0.88
0.86
0.99
0.67
0.75
-
0.62
0.74
0.74
-0.12
0.31
0.08
EEM
0.66
0.69
0.62
0.52
0.79
0.62
-
0.77
0.86
0.15
0.43
0.39
VGK
0.84
0.85
0.73
0.63
0.96
0.74
0.77
-
0.86
0.09
0.46
0.29
VPL
0.78
0.81
0.73
0.61
0.88
0.74
0.86
0.86
-
0.12
0.44
0.25
SHY
-0.11
0.02
-0.15
0.14
-0.03
-0.12
0.15
0.09
0.12
-
0.62
0.30
TIP
0.32
0.46
0.27
0.62
0.33
0.31
0.43
0.46
0.44
0.62
-
0.46
GLTR
0.15
0.21
0.07
0.25
0.22
0.08
0.39
0.29
0.25
0.30
0.46
-
Asset
VTV
VV
IJS
VNQ
EFV
IJR
EEM
VGK
VPL
SHY
TIP
GLTR
VTV
-
0.95
0.85
0.64
0.81
0.80
0.70
0.83
0.67
-0.15
0.16
0.37
VV
0.95
-
0.82
0.61
0.78
0.82
0.72
0.84
0.69
-0.12
0.21
0.38
IJS
0.85
0.82
-
0.68
0.75
0.96
0.67
0.74
0.61
-0.17
0.12
0.38
VNQ
0.64
0.61
0.68
-
0.61
0.64
0.51
0.59
0.49
-0.02
0.32
0.38
EFV
0.81
0.78
0.75
0.61
-
0.72
0.77
0.94
0.84
-0.13
0.17
0.47
IJR
0.80
0.82
0.96
0.64
0.72
-
0.69
0.74
0.64
-0.19
0.11
0.40
EEM
0.70
0.72
0.67
0.51
0.77
0.69
-
0.77
0.75
-0.09
0.20
0.61
VGK
0.83
0.84
0.74
0.59
0.94
0.74
0.77
-
0.73
-0.10
0.20
0.44
VPL
0.67
0.69
0.61
0.49
0.84
0.64
0.75
0.73
-
-0.10
0.21
0.49
SHY
-0.15
-0.12
-0.17
-0.02
-0.13
-0.19
-0.09
-0.10
-0.10
-
0.62
0.03
TIP
0.16
0.21
0.12
0.32
0.17
0.11
0.20
0.20
0.21
0.62
-
0.27
GLTR
0.37
0.38
0.38
0.38
0.47
0.40
0.61
0.44
0.49
0.03
0.27
-
Asset
VTV
VV
IJS
VNQ
EFV
IJR
EEM
VGK
VPL
SHY
TIP
GLTR
VTV
-
0.95
0.86
0.63
0.83
0.81
0.68
0.79
0.55
-0.03
0.21
0.32
VV
0.95
-
0.83
0.60
0.81
0.83
0.69
0.79
0.57
-0.02
0.24
0.32
IJS
0.86
0.83
-
0.69
0.76
0.96
0.64
0.70
0.50
-0.11
0.13
0.33
VNQ
0.63
0.60
0.69
-
0.60
0.65
0.48
0.57
0.41
0.01
0.29
0.33
EFV
0.83
0.81
0.76
0.60
-
0.74
0.71
0.89
0.71
-0.02
0.21
0.41
IJR
0.81
0.83
0.96
0.65
0.74
-
0.66
0.70
0.51
-0.12
0.12
0.34
EEM
0.68
0.69
0.64
0.48
0.71
0.66
-
0.68
0.59
0.02
0.21
0.44
VGK
0.79
0.79
0.70
0.57
0.89
0.70
0.68
-
0.68
0.01
0.23
0.41
VPL
0.55
0.57
0.50
0.41
0.71
0.51
0.59
0.68
-
0.01
0.20
0.42
SHY
-0.03
-0.02
-0.11
0.01
-0.02
-0.12
0.02
0.01
0.01
-
0.71
-0.03
TIP
0.21
0.24
0.13
0.29
0.21
0.12
0.21
0.23
0.20
0.71
-
0.14
GLTR
0.32
0.32
0.33
0.33
0.41
0.34
0.44
0.41
0.42
-0.03
0.14
-

If you want to learn more about historical correlations, you can find out here how the main asset class are correlated to each other.

Readings that may interest you

Capital Growth as of May 31, 2023

An investment of 1000$, since June 1993, now would be worth 4507.28$, with a total return of 350.73% (5.15% annualized).

The Inflation Adjusted Capital now would be 2142.48$, with a net total return of 114.25% (2.57% annualized).
An investment of 1000$, since January 1985, now would be worth 11799.80$, with a total return of 1079.98% (6.64% annualized).

The Inflation Adjusted Capital now would be 4095.82$, with a net total return of 309.58% (3.74% annualized).

Drawdowns

A drawdown refers to the decline in value from a relative peak value to a relative trough. A maximum drawdown is the maximum observed loss from a peak to a trough of a portfolio before a new peak is attained.

BILL BERNSTEIN SHELTERED SAM 20/80 PORTFOLIO
Drawdown periods
Updated to May 2023
Swipe left to see all data
Drawdown period
Recovery period
Total
Drawdown Start Bottom #Months End #Months #Months
-11.24% Jan 2022 Sep 2022 9 in progress 8 17
-11.12% Jun 2008 Feb 2009 9 Sep 2009 7 16
-5.52% Feb 1994 Jun 1994 5 Mar 1995 9 14
-3.84% Feb 2020 Mar 2020 2 Jun 2020 3 5
-3.04% Apr 2004 Apr 2004 1 Sep 2004 5 6
-2.85% May 2013 Jun 2013 2 Nov 2013 5 7
-2.74% Aug 2011 Sep 2011 2 Dec 2011 3 5
-2.69% May 2015 Sep 2015 5 Apr 2016 7 12
-2.63% Sep 2018 Dec 2018 4 Feb 2019 2 6
-2.01% Feb 1999 Feb 1999 1 Apr 1999 2 3
-1.97% Jul 1998 Aug 1998 2 Sep 1998 1 3
-1.86% May 2010 Jun 2010 2 Sep 2010 3 5
-1.67% Sep 2014 Sep 2014 1 Jan 2015 4 5
-1.47% Feb 1996 Apr 1996 3 Sep 1996 5 8
-1.41% Aug 1997 Aug 1997 1 Sep 1997 1 2
-1.36% Mar 1997 Mar 1997 1 Apr 1997 1 2
-1.34% Feb 2018 Feb 2018 1 Jul 2018 5 6
-1.20% Nov 1993 Nov 1993 1 Dec 1993 1 2
-1.20% Sep 2020 Oct 2020 2 Nov 2020 1 3
-1.13% Sep 2021 Sep 2021 1 Oct 2021 1 2
Swipe left to see all data
Drawdown period
Recovery period
Total
Drawdown Start Bottom #Months End #Months #Months
-11.24% Jan 2022 Sep 2022 9 in progress 8 17
-11.12% Jun 2008 Feb 2009 9 Sep 2009 7 16
-5.52% Feb 1994 Jun 1994 5 Mar 1995 9 14
-4.40% Sep 1987 Nov 1987 3 Jan 1988 2 5
-3.84% Feb 2020 Mar 2020 2 Jun 2020 3 5
-3.05% Aug 1990 Sep 1990 2 Nov 1990 2 4
-3.04% Apr 2004 Apr 2004 1 Sep 2004 5 6
-2.85% May 2013 Jun 2013 2 Nov 2013 5 7
-2.74% Aug 2011 Sep 2011 2 Dec 2011 3 5
-2.69% May 2015 Sep 2015 5 Apr 2016 7 12
-2.65% Jan 1990 Apr 1990 4 May 1990 1 5
-2.63% Sep 2018 Dec 2018 4 Feb 2019 2 6
-2.27% Sep 1986 Sep 1986 1 Nov 1986 2 3
-2.01% Feb 1999 Feb 1999 1 Apr 1999 2 3
-1.97% Jul 1998 Aug 1998 2 Sep 1998 1 3
-1.94% Apr 1987 May 1987 2 Jul 1987 2 4
-1.86% May 2010 Jun 2010 2 Sep 2010 3 5
-1.67% Sep 2014 Sep 2014 1 Jan 2015 4 5
-1.47% Feb 1996 Apr 1996 3 Sep 1996 5 8
-1.41% Aug 1997 Aug 1997 1 Sep 1997 1 2

Rolling Returns ( more details)

A rolling return is a measure of investment performance that calculates the return of an investment over a set period of time, with the starting date rolling forward. This approach can provide a more accurate representation of the investment's historical performance and helps investors to evaluate the investment's consistency over time.

BILL BERNSTEIN SHELTERED SAM 20/80 PORTFOLIO
Annualized Rolling Returns
Data Source: from January 1985 to May 2023
Swipe left to see all data
Rolling
Period		 Annualized Return (%) Negative
Periods
Average Latest Best Worst
1 Year
 6.71 -2.60 28.71
Apr 1985 - Mar 1986 		-10.83
Mar 2008 - Feb 2009 		8.67%
2 Years
 6.59 -2.54 20.29
Mar 1985 - Feb 1987 		-2.54
Jun 2021 - May 2023 		2.74%
3 Years
 6.54 1.58 14.65
Oct 1990 - Sep 1993 		0.78
Oct 2019 - Sep 2022 		0.00%
5 Years
 6.50 2.50 12.97
Jan 1985 - Dec 1989 		1.84
Oct 2017 - Sep 2022 		0.00%
7 Years
 6.49 2.76 12.48
Jan 1985 - Dec 1991 		2.36
Apr 2013 - Mar 2020 		0.00%
10 Years
 6.45 2.54 10.67
Mar 1985 - Feb 1995 		2.27
Oct 2012 - Sep 2022 		0.00%
15 Years
 6.42 3.03 10.11
Jan 1985 - Dec 1999 		2.98
Oct 2007 - Sep 2022 		0.00%
20 Years
 6.44 3.90 9.56
Jan 1985 - Dec 2004 		3.90
Jun 2003 - May 2023 		0.00%
30 Years
 6.43 5.15 7.83
Jan 1985 - Dec 2014 		5.15
Jun 1993 - May 2023 		0.00%
Annualized rolling and average returns over full calendar month periods

If you need a deeper detail about rolling returns, please refer to the Bill Bernstein Sheltered Sam 20/80 Portfolio: Rolling Returns page.

Previous vs subsequent Returns

Considering all 10-year rolling periods, is there a relationship between past and future returns, at a given date?

In the following chart, we show how past returns (x-axis) and subsequent returns (y-axis) are related.

Neighboring data is aggregated and occurrences are indicated. It is possible to zoom by clicking or drawing the desired area

BILL BERNSTEIN SHELTERED SAM 20/80 PORTFOLIO
Previous vs Next Returns - 10 Years annualized
Updated to May 2023

The annualized return of the last 10 years has been 2.54% (updated at May 31, 2023).

Seasonality

In which months is it better to invest in Bill Bernstein Sheltered Sam 20/80 Portfolio?

Both the Average Return and the Gain Frequency (Win %) are useful to get an idea of what happened in the past.

For further information about the seasonality, check the Asset Class Seasonality page.
Swipe left to see all data
Monthly Average Return (%) and Gain Frequency
Return (%) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Average
Gain Frequency
0.77
80%
-0.35
40%
-0.09
60%
0.58
80%
0.02
60%
0.00
80%
1.16
100%
0.10
80%
-1.31
20%
0.30
60%
1.17
80%
0.24
60%
 Capital Growth on monthly avg returns
100
100.77
100.42
100.33
100.91
100.93
100.94
102.11
102.21
100.88
101.17
102.36
102.60
Best 2.5
2023 		0.5
2019 		1.7
2023 		2.7
2020 		0.9
2021 		1.8
2019 		2.7
2022 		1.1
2020 		0.2
2019 		1.9
2022 		2.7
2020 		1.4
2020
Worst -1.7
2022 		-1.6
2023 		-3.0
2020 		-2.2
2022 		-1.3
2023 		-2.8
2022 		0.2
2019 		-2.3
2022 		-4.4
2022 		-1.8
2018 		-0.4
2021 		-1.1
2018
Monthly Seasonality over the period Jun 2018 - May 2023
Swipe left to see all data
Monthly Average Return (%) and Gain Frequency
Return (%) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Average
Gain Frequency
0.58
80%
-0.06
60%
0.19
60%
0.45
80%
0.15
60%
-0.05
60%
0.87
90%
-0.13
60%
-0.64
40%
0.46
70%
0.67
70%
0.09
50%
 Capital Growth on monthly avg returns
100
100.58
100.51
100.71
101.16
101.31
101.27
102.15
102.02
101.37
101.84
102.51
102.61
Best 2.5
2023 		1.1
2014 		2.1
2016 		2.7
2020 		1.0
2014 		1.8
2019 		2.7
2022 		1.1
2020 		1.6
2013 		1.9
2022 		2.7
2020 		1.4
2020
Worst -1.7
2022 		-1.6
2023 		-3.0
2020 		-2.2
2022 		-1.3
2023 		-2.8
2022 		-0.5
2014 		-2.3
2022 		-4.4
2022 		-1.8
2018 		-0.4
2021 		-1.1
2018
Monthly Seasonality over the period Jun 2013 - May 2023
Swipe left to see all data
Monthly Average Return (%) and Gain Frequency
Return (%) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Average
Gain Frequency
0.76
79%
0.33
72%
0.45
69%
0.59
77%
0.59
62%
0.51
66%
0.74
68%
0.40
68%
0.16
58%
0.48
71%
0.65
71%
0.88
74%
 Capital Growth on monthly avg returns
100
100.76
101.09
101.55
102.15
102.75
103.28
104.04
104.45
104.62
105.12
105.80
106.74
Best 3.2
1988 		4.2
1986 		4.1
1986 		2.7
2020 		4.8
1985 		3.1
1986 		3.2
1997 		3.4
1986 		2.6
1998 		2.8
2011 		2.9
1985 		4.8
1991
Worst -2.6
2009 		-3.0
2009 		-3.0
2020 		-3.0
2004 		-1.5
2010 		-2.8
2022 		-1.0
2003 		-2.5
1990 		-4.4
2022 		-5.6
2008 		-1.2
1993 		-1.1
2018
Monthly Seasonality over the period Jan 1985 - May 2023

Monthly/Yearly Returns

Bill Bernstein Sheltered Sam 20/80 Portfolio data source starts from January 1985: let's focus on monthly and yearly returns.

We are providing two different views:
  • Histogram: it shows the distribution of the returns recorded so far
  • Plain Table: it shows the detailed monthly and yearly returns
MONTHLY RETURNS HISTOGRAM
Jan 1985 - May 2023
321 Positive Months (70%) - 140 Negative Months (30%)
MONTHLY RETURNS TABLE
Jan 1985 - May 2023
(Scroll down to see all data)
Swipe left to see all data
Yearly Return(%)
Monthly Return(%)
Year Total Infl.Adj Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
2023
 +1.49 -0.70 2.5 -1.6 1.7 0.3 -1.3
2022
 -8.57 -14.12 -1.7 -0.2 -0.9 -2.2 0.1 -2.8 2.7 -2.3 -4.4 1.9 2.2 -1.1
2021
 +6.12 -0.85 0.3 0.4 0.8 1.3 0.9 0.1 0.9 0.4 -1.1 1.2 -0.4 1.2
2020
 +6.51 +5.08 0.5 -0.9 -3.0 2.7 0.8 0.7 1.6 1.1 -0.7 -0.5 2.7 1.4
2019
 +9.31 +6.87 2.3 0.5 0.9 0.8 -0.5 1.8 0.2 0.7 0.2 0.6 0.5 0.8
2018
 -1.46 -3.31 0.3 -1.3 0.3 0.0 0.6 0.3 0.4 0.7 -0.5 -1.8 0.8 -1.1
2017
 +4.67 +2.51 0.6 0.7 0.1 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.7 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.5
2016
 +4.89 +2.75 -0.2 0.4 2.1 0.3 -0.2 1.3 1.0 -0.2 0.4 -0.7 0.0 0.6
2015
 -0.87 -1.59 1.0 0.3 -0.1 0.3 -0.2 -0.7 0.3 -1.5 -0.5 1.3 -0.2 -0.8
2014
 +3.15 +2.37 0.1 1.1 0.0 0.6 1.0 0.6 -0.5 0.9 -1.7 1.1 0.4 -0.5
2013
 +2.51 +0.99 0.8 0.2 0.7 0.8 -1.3 -1.6 1.5 -1.3 1.6 1.1 0.2 -0.1
2012
 +5.52 +3.72 2.0 0.4 0.2 0.4 -0.9 0.7 0.8 0.4 0.7 0.0 0.4 0.3
2011
 +4.55 +1.54 0.4 1.0 0.3 1.8 -0.1 -0.2 1.0 -0.9 -1.9 2.8 0.0 0.2
2010
 +6.66 +5.09 0.1 0.2 1.3 1.4 -1.5 -0.4 1.5 -0.1 2.0 1.7 -0.8 1.1
2009
 +8.71 +5.83 -2.6 -3.0 3.6 1.8 2.1 -0.1 2.0 1.5 1.8 -0.4 2.4 -0.3
2008
 -4.20 -4.29 0.9 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.2 -1.0 -0.2 0.6 -2.3 -5.6 -0.5 3.2
2007
 +7.87 +3.64 0.6 0.7 0.6 1.0 0.2 -0.3 0.3 1.0 1.5 1.1 1.0 -0.2
2006
 +6.52 +3.88 1.3 0.0 0.1 0.4 -0.7 0.4 0.9 1.4 0.5 1.1 1.2 -0.3
2005
 +3.75 +0.32 -0.6 0.4 -0.4 0.4 1.1 0.7 -0.1 1.1 0.3 -1.1 1.1 0.8
2004
 +6.77 +3.40 0.8 1.3 0.8 -3.0 1.0 0.6 -0.2 1.6 0.5 1.0 0.9 1.4
2003
 +11.07 +9.02 -0.4 0.9 -0.5 1.5 3.1 0.3 -1.0 1.2 1.5 1.4 0.6 2.0
2002
 +6.48 +4.01 0.2 0.8 0.6 1.4 0.8 -0.1 -0.7 1.8 -0.1 -0.3 0.6 1.4
2001
 +5.17 +3.56 2.0 -0.3 -0.3 1.5 0.8 -0.1 0.8 0.0 -0.8 1.6 -0.2 0.0
2000
 +10.33 +6.71 -0.8 1.0 2.3 -0.4 -0.2 1.8 0.7 1.9 0.0 0.6 0.6 2.5
1999
 +2.93 +0.24 0.6 -2.0 1.0 1.9 -0.9 0.7 -0.4 -0.4 0.5 0.7 0.3 0.9
1998
 +8.26 +6.54 1.0 1.1 1.1 0.6 0.0 0.7 -0.4 -1.6 2.6 1.1 1.1 0.7
1997
 +11.23 +9.37 0.6 0.3 -1.4 1.6 2.0 1.7 3.2 -1.4 2.4 -0.1 0.8 1.1
1996
 +6.44 +3.01 1.0 -1.2 -0.2 -0.1 0.3 0.8 -0.7 0.4 2.0 2.0 2.5 -0.5
1995
 +18.36 +15.43 1.4 2.0 1.1 1.5 3.2 0.8 0.8 1.0 1.3 0.4 1.9 1.7
1994
 -2.45 -4.99 2.0 -2.1 -2.7 -0.4 0.0 -0.4 1.9 0.8 -1.6 0.2 -1.1 1.0
1993
 +13.19 +10.17 2.0 2.2 1.1 0.7 0.3 1.8 0.9 2.4 0.3 0.6 -1.2 1.4
1992
 +7.98 +4.94 -1.0 0.8 -0.9 0.8 2.0 0.6 2.5 0.5 1.3 -1.4 0.6 1.9
1991
 +17.84 +14.33 1.7 2.0 0.9 1.0 1.3 -1.1 1.6 2.0 1.5 1.1 -0.3 4.8
1990
 +5.02 -1.03 -2.1 0.3 0.2 -1.1 3.3 1.1 1.0 -2.5 -0.5 1.2 2.4 1.7
1989
 +15.82 +10.68 2.0 -0.6 0.7 2.5 2.4 2.2 2.9 -0.7 0.5 1.1 1.2 0.8
1988
 +8.98 +4.37 3.2 1.8 -0.7 -0.1 -0.6 2.5 -0.4 -0.6 2.2 1.6 -1.0 0.5
1987
 +2.97 -1.41 2.9 1.3 0.3 -1.6 -0.3 1.7 1.0 0.4 -1.4 -2.4 -0.6 1.9
1986
 +16.07 +14.81 0.7 4.2 4.1 0.5 -0.9 3.1 -0.1 3.4 -2.3 1.4 1.3 -0.2
1985
 +21.99 +17.53 3.0 -1.0 1.6 1.7 4.8 1.2 -0.3 1.1 -0.1 2.2 2.9 3.1

Portofolio Returns, up to December 2010, are simulated. They have been calculated using the historical series of equivalent ETFs / Assets, instead of the actual ETFs of the portfolio.

In particular, it has been used:

  • VTV - Vanguard Value: simulated historical serie, up to December 2004
  • VV - Vanguard Large-Cap: simulated historical serie, up to December 2004
  • IJS - iShares S&P Small-Cap 600 Value: simulated historical serie, up to December 2000
  • VNQ - Vanguard Real Estate: simulated historical serie, up to December 2004
  • EFV - iShares MSCI EAFE Value: simulated historical serie, up to December 2005
  • IJR - iShares Core S&P Small-Cap: simulated historical serie, up to December 2000
  • EEM - iShares MSCI Emerging Markets: simulated historical serie, up to December 2003
  • VGK - Vanguard FTSE Europe: simulated historical serie, up to December 2005
  • VPL - Vanguard FTSE Pacific: simulated historical serie, up to December 2005
  • SHY - iShares 1-3 Year Treasury Bond: simulated historical serie, up to December 2002
  • TIP - iShares TIPS Bond: simulated historical serie, up to December 2003
  • GLTR - Aberdeen Standard Physical Precious Metals Basket Shares: simulated historical serie, up to December 2010

Portfolio efficiency

Compared to the Bill Bernstein Sheltered Sam 20/80 Portfolio, no other portfolio in our database granted a higher return over 30 Years and a less severe drawdown at the same time.

Here's a list containing the Best Classic Portfolios, with the highest returns over 30 Years and Low Risk categorization.

Swipe left to see all data
30 Years Stats (%)
% Allocation
Portfolio Author Return▾ Dev.Std Drawdown Stocks Bonds Comm
High Yield Bonds Income +6.57 8.71 -23.97 0 100 0
Stocks/Bonds 20/80 Momentum +6.10 4.82 -17.91 20 80 0
All Country World 20/80 +5.75 5.54 -17.97 20 80 0
Stocks/Bonds 20/80 +5.62 4.76 -16.57 20 80 0
Dimensional Retirement Income Fund DFA +5.48 4.78 -12.91 20.4 79.6 0