Bill Bernstein Sheltered Sam 10/90 Portfolio: ETF allocation and returns

Data Source: from January 1985 to May 2023 (~38 years)
Consolidated Returns as of 31 May 2023
Live Update: Jun 02 2023

PORTFOLIO • LIVE PERFORMANCE (USD currency)

0.11%

1 Day

Jun 02 2023

0.13%

Current Month

June 2023

The Bill Bernstein Sheltered Sam 10/90 Portfolio is a Low Risk portfolio and can be implemented with 12 ETFs.

It's exposed for 9.7% on the Stock Market and for 0.3% on Commodities.

In the last 30 Years, the Bill Bernstein Sheltered Sam 10/90 Portfolio obtained a 4.56% compound annual return, with a 3.39% standard deviation.

Asset Allocation and ETFs

The Bill Bernstein Sheltered Sam 10/90 Portfolio has the following asset allocation:

        9.7% Stocks
      
        90% Fixed Income
      
        0.3% Commodities

The Bill Bernstein Sheltered Sam 10/90 Portfolio can be implemented with the following ETFs:

Weight (%)	Ticker	ETF Name	Investment Themes
2.50	VTV	Vanguard Value	Equity, U.S., Large Cap, Value
2.00	VV	Vanguard Large-Cap	Equity, U.S., Large Cap
1.50	IJS	iShares S&P Small-Cap 600 Value	Equity, U.S., Small Cap, Value
1.00	VNQ	Vanguard Real Estate	Real Estate, U.S.
0.70	EFV	iShares MSCI EAFE Value	Equity, EAFE, Large Cap, Value
0.50	IJR	iShares Core S&P Small-Cap	Equity, U.S., Small Cap
0.50	EEM	iShares MSCI Emerging Markets	Equity, Emerging Markets, Large Cap
0.50	VGK	Vanguard FTSE Europe	Equity, Developed Europe, Large Cap
0.50	VPL	Vanguard FTSE Pacific	Equity, Developed Asia Pacific, Large Cap
54.00	SHY	iShares 1-3 Year Treasury Bond	Bond, U.S., Short Term
36.00	TIP	iShares TIPS Bond	Bond, U.S., All-Term
0.30	GLTR	Aberdeen Standard Physical Precious Metals Basket Shares	Commodity, Broad Precious Metals

Most of Lazy Portfolios are made of common components (asset classes), very simple and well defined. For a more complete view, find out the most common ETFs you can use to build your portfolio.

Portfolio and ETF Returns as of May 31, 2023

The Bill Bernstein Sheltered Sam 10/90 Portfolio guaranteed the following returns.

Portfolio returns are calculated in USD, assuming:

No fees or capital gain taxes
a rebalancing of the components at the beginning of each year (at every January 1st). How do returns change with different rebalancing strategies?
the reinvestment of dividends

June 2023 return is calculated on the hypothesis of a newly built portfolio, with the starting asset allocation.

BILL BERNSTEIN SHELTERED SAM 10/90 PORTFOLIO

Consolidated returns as of 31 May 2023

Live Update: Jun 02 2023

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		Chg (%)		Return (%)	Return (%) as of May 31, 2023
		1 Day	*Time ET^()**	Jun 2023	1M	6M	1Y	5Y	10Y	30Y	MAX (~38Y)
Bill Bernstein Sheltered Sam 10/90 Portfolio		-0.11		0.13	-1.10	0.72	-2.48	1.99	1.78	4.56	6.01
US Inflation Adjusted return					-1.10	-1.16	-6.04	-1.76	-0.88	2.00	3.13
*Components*
VTV	Vanguard Value	1.97	Jun 02 2023	2.64	-4.12	-6.58	-3.93	8.08	9.73	9.03	9.87
VV	Vanguard Large-Cap	1.46	Jun 02 2023	2.50	0.73	3.57	2.95	10.80	11.85	9.84	8.93
IJS	iShares S&P Small-Cap 600 Value	4.49	Jun 02 2023	5.32	-3.66	-9.53	-8.86	3.20	8.10	10.13	12.72
VNQ	Vanguard Real Estate	2.44	Jun 02 2023	2.45	-3.96	-6.98	-15.87	4.07	5.34	8.35	6.94
EFV	iShares MSCI EAFE Value	1.61	Jun 02 2023	3.17	-5.22	3.57	0.31	1.52	3.09	5.45	9.87
IJR	iShares Core S&P Small-Cap	4.12	Jun 02 2023	5.01	-1.67	-8.53	-7.27	3.75	8.89	9.76	11.34
EEM	iShares MSCI Emerging Markets	1.72	Jun 02 2023	3.53	-2.40	-1.90	-8.29	-1.39	1.39	5.57	7.36
VGK	Vanguard FTSE Europe	1.18	Jun 02 2023	2.37	-5.12	7.20	4.26	4.15	5.05	7.11	8.65
VPL	Vanguard FTSE Pacific	1.82	Jun 02 2023	3.85	-1.16	3.07	-0.43	1.34	4.54	2.62	8.21
SHY	iShares 1-3 Year Treasury Bond	-0.28	Jun 02 2023	-0.13	-0.38	1.41	-0.24	0.88	0.65	3.03	4.43
TIP	iShares TIPS Bond	-0.49	Jun 02 2023	-0.33	-1.71	0.52	-5.71	2.20	1.42	5.21	6.80
GLTR	Aberdeen Standard Physical Precious Metals Basket Shares	-1.07	Jun 02 2023	0.14	-3.62	3.86	1.74	7.14	1.81	5.98	8.47

Returns over 1 year are annualized | Available data source: since Jan 1985

(*) Eastern Time (ET - America/New York)

US Inflation is updated to Apr 2023. Waiting for updates, inflation of May 2023 is set to 0%. Current inflation (annualized) is 1Y: 3.79% , 5Y: 3.81% , 10Y: 2.68% , 30Y: 2.51%

Live update: World Markets and Indexes

In 2022, the Bill Bernstein Sheltered Sam 10/90 Portfolio granted a 2.99% dividend yield. If you are interested in getting periodic income, please refer to the Bill Bernstein Sheltered Sam 10/90 Portfolio: Dividend Yield page.

Portfolio Metrics as of May 31, 2023

Metrics of Bill Bernstein Sheltered Sam 10/90 Portfolio, updated as of 31 May 2023.

Portfolio metrics are calculated based on monthly returns, assuming:

No fees or capital gain taxes
a rebalancing of the components at the beginning of each year (at every January 1st). How do returns change with different rebalancing strategies?
the reinvestment of dividends

BILL BERNSTEIN SHELTERED SAM 10/90 PORTFOLIO

Portfolio Metrics

Data Source: 1 January 1985 - 31 May 2023 (~38 years)

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	Metrics as of May 31, 2023
	1M	3M	6M	1Y	3Y	5Y	10Y	20Y	30Y	MAX (~38Y)
Portfolio Return (%)	-1.10	1.00	0.72	-2.48	0.41	1.99	1.78	3.14	4.56	6.01
US Inflation (%)	0.00	0.84	1.90	3.79	5.77	3.81	2.68	2.55	2.51	2.79
Infl. Adjusted Return (%)	-1.10	0.16	-1.16	-6.04	-5.07	-1.76	-0.88	0.58	2.00	3.13
Waiting for updates, inflation of May 2023 is temporarily set to 0%. Returns / Inflation rates over 1 year are annualized.
RISK INDICATORS
Standard Deviation (%)				6.66	4.53	3.91	3.16	3.26	3.39	3.82
Sharpe Ratio				-0.85	-0.14	0.17	0.32	0.60	0.69	0.53
Sortino Ratio				-1.15	-0.17	0.22	0.41	0.78	0.93	0.75
MAXIMUM DRAWDOWN
Drawdown Depth (%)				-5.92	-9.93	-9.93	-9.93	-9.93	-9.93	-9.93
Start (yyyy mm)				2022 08	2022 01	2022 01	2022 01	2022 01	2022 01	2022 01
Bottom (yyyy mm)				2022 09	2022 09	2022 09	2022 09	2022 09	2022 09	2022 09
Start to Bottom (# months)				2	9	9	9	9	9	9
Start to Recovery (# months) in progress				> 10	> 17	> 17	> 17	> 17	> 17	> 17
ROLLING PERIOD RETURNS - Annualized
Best Return (%)				27.18	13.72	11.90	10.10	8.93	7.21
Worst Return (%)				-8.70	0.28	1.16	1.45	3.14	4.56
% Positive Periods				90%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%
MONTHS
Positive	0	2	3	6	21	40	75	167	258	333
Negative	1	1	3	6	15	20	45	73	102	128
% Positive	0%	67%	50%	50%	58%	67%	63%	70%	72%	72%
WITHDRAWAL RATES (WR)
Safe WR (%)					32.39	20.42	10.17	5.91	5.44	6.50
Perpetual WR (%)					0.00	0.00	0.00	0.57	1.96	3.04

Terms and Definitions

Annualized Portfolio Return: it's the annualized geometric mean return of the portfolio
Standard Deviation: it's a measure of the dispersion of returns around the mean
Sharpe Ratio: it's a measure of risk-adjusted performance of the portfolio. It's calculated by dividing the excess return of the portfolio over the risk-free rate by the portfolio standard deviation. The risk-free rate here considered is the 1-3 Mth T-Bill return.

Sortino Ratio: another measure of risk-adjusted performance of the portfolio. It's a modification of the Sharpe Ratio (same formula but the denominator is the portfolio downside standard deviation).
Maximum Drawdown: a drawdown refers to the decline in value from a relative peak value to a relative trough. A maximum drawdown is the maximum observed loss from a peak to a trough of a portfolio before a new peak is attained.
Rolling Returns: returns over a time frame (best, worst, % of positive returns).

Pos./Neg. Months: number of months with positive/negative return.
Safe Withdrawal Rate (SWR): it's the percentage of the original portfolio balance that can be withdrawn at the end of each year with inflation adjustment, without the portfolio running out of money (dollar amount withdrawal).
Perpetual Withdrawal Rate (PWR): it's the percentage of portfolio balance that can be withdrawn at the end of each year, while retaining the inflation adjusted portfolio balance (percentage withdrawal).

Portfolio Components Correlation

Correlation measures to what degree the returns of the two assets move in relation to each other.

Correlation coefficient is a numerical value between -1 and +1.

If one variable goes up by a certain amount, the correlation coefficient indicates which way the other variable moves and by how much.

Asset correlations are calculated based on monthly returns.

COMPONENTS MONTHLY CORRELATIONS

Monthly correlations as of 31 May 2023

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Asset	VTV	VV	IJS	VNQ	EFV	IJR	EEM	VGK	VPL	SHY	TIP	GLTR
VTV	-	0.89	0.89	0.82	0.87	0.88	0.58	0.89	0.78	0.50	0.77	0.29
VV	0.89	-	0.86	0.91	0.80	0.89	0.64	0.87	0.86	0.66	0.91	0.32
IJS	0.89	0.86	-	0.87	0.78	0.99	0.50	0.79	0.70	0.34	0.69	0.03
VNQ	0.82	0.91	0.87	-	0.86	0.88	0.76	0.89	0.90	0.66	0.88	0.36
EFV	0.87	0.80	0.78	0.86	-	0.76	0.81	0.98	0.92	0.64	0.76	0.53
IJR	0.88	0.89	0.99	0.88	0.76	-	0.50	0.79	0.72	0.36	0.73	0.03
EEM	0.58	0.64	0.50	0.76	0.81	0.50	-	0.79	0.93	0.74	0.67	0.67
VGK	0.89	0.87	0.79	0.89	0.98	0.79	0.79	-	0.93	0.70	0.84	0.55
VPL	0.78	0.86	0.70	0.90	0.92	0.72	0.93	0.93	-	0.79	0.85	0.64
SHY	0.50	0.66	0.34	0.66	0.64	0.36	0.74	0.70	0.79	-	0.83	0.81
TIP	0.77	0.91	0.69	0.88	0.76	0.73	0.67	0.84	0.85	0.83	-	0.46
GLTR	0.29	0.32	0.03	0.36	0.53	0.03	0.67	0.55	0.64	0.81	0.46	-

Asset	VTV	VV	IJS	VNQ	EFV	IJR	EEM	VGK	VPL	SHY	TIP	GLTR
VTV	-	0.92	0.90	0.81	0.89	0.91	0.70	0.89	0.83	-0.06	0.43	0.25
VV	0.92	-	0.85	0.84	0.80	0.89	0.71	0.88	0.85	0.08	0.60	0.31
IJS	0.90	0.85	-	0.76	0.85	0.99	0.72	0.82	0.81	-0.12	0.38	0.15
VNQ	0.81	0.84	0.76	-	0.72	0.79	0.64	0.79	0.73	0.08	0.64	0.30
EFV	0.89	0.80	0.85	0.72	-	0.83	0.81	0.96	0.90	0.01	0.39	0.30
IJR	0.91	0.89	0.99	0.79	0.83	-	0.73	0.84	0.83	-0.09	0.44	0.18
EEM	0.70	0.71	0.72	0.64	0.81	0.73	-	0.81	0.86	0.18	0.44	0.45
VGK	0.89	0.88	0.82	0.79	0.96	0.84	0.81	-	0.91	0.13	0.54	0.39
VPL	0.83	0.85	0.81	0.73	0.90	0.83	0.86	0.91	-	0.19	0.53	0.35
SHY	-0.06	0.08	-0.12	0.08	0.01	-0.09	0.18	0.13	0.19	-	0.61	0.30
TIP	0.43	0.60	0.38	0.64	0.39	0.44	0.44	0.54	0.53	0.61	-	0.44
GLTR	0.25	0.31	0.15	0.30	0.30	0.18	0.45	0.39	0.35	0.30	0.44	-

Asset	VTV	VV	IJS	VNQ	EFV	IJR	EEM	VGK	VPL	SHY	TIP	GLTR
VTV	-	0.93	0.88	0.68	0.85	0.88	0.66	0.84	0.78	-0.11	0.32	0.15
VV	0.93	-	0.82	0.72	0.79	0.86	0.69	0.85	0.81	0.02	0.46	0.21
IJS	0.88	0.82	-	0.65	0.76	0.99	0.62	0.73	0.73	-0.15	0.27	0.07
VNQ	0.68	0.72	0.65	-	0.57	0.67	0.52	0.63	0.61	0.14	0.62	0.25
EFV	0.85	0.79	0.76	0.57	-	0.75	0.79	0.96	0.88	-0.03	0.33	0.22
IJR	0.88	0.86	0.99	0.67	0.75	-	0.62	0.74	0.74	-0.12	0.31	0.08
EEM	0.66	0.69	0.62	0.52	0.79	0.62	-	0.77	0.86	0.15	0.43	0.39
VGK	0.84	0.85	0.73	0.63	0.96	0.74	0.77	-	0.86	0.09	0.46	0.29
VPL	0.78	0.81	0.73	0.61	0.88	0.74	0.86	0.86	-	0.12	0.44	0.25
SHY	-0.11	0.02	-0.15	0.14	-0.03	-0.12	0.15	0.09	0.12	-	0.62	0.30
TIP	0.32	0.46	0.27	0.62	0.33	0.31	0.43	0.46	0.44	0.62	-	0.46
GLTR	0.15	0.21	0.07	0.25	0.22	0.08	0.39	0.29	0.25	0.30	0.46	-

Asset	VTV	VV	IJS	VNQ	EFV	IJR	EEM	VGK	VPL	SHY	TIP	GLTR
VTV	-	0.95	0.85	0.64	0.81	0.80	0.70	0.83	0.67	-0.15	0.16	0.37
VV	0.95	-	0.82	0.61	0.78	0.82	0.72	0.84	0.69	-0.12	0.21	0.38
IJS	0.85	0.82	-	0.68	0.75	0.96	0.67	0.74	0.61	-0.17	0.12	0.38
VNQ	0.64	0.61	0.68	-	0.61	0.64	0.51	0.59	0.49	-0.02	0.32	0.38
EFV	0.81	0.78	0.75	0.61	-	0.72	0.77	0.94	0.84	-0.13	0.17	0.47
IJR	0.80	0.82	0.96	0.64	0.72	-	0.69	0.74	0.64	-0.19	0.11	0.40
EEM	0.70	0.72	0.67	0.51	0.77	0.69	-	0.77	0.75	-0.09	0.20	0.61
VGK	0.83	0.84	0.74	0.59	0.94	0.74	0.77	-	0.73	-0.10	0.20	0.44
VPL	0.67	0.69	0.61	0.49	0.84	0.64	0.75	0.73	-	-0.10	0.21	0.49
SHY	-0.15	-0.12	-0.17	-0.02	-0.13	-0.19	-0.09	-0.10	-0.10	-	0.62	0.03
TIP	0.16	0.21	0.12	0.32	0.17	0.11	0.20	0.20	0.21	0.62	-	0.27
GLTR	0.37	0.38	0.38	0.38	0.47	0.40	0.61	0.44	0.49	0.03	0.27	-

Asset	VTV	VV	IJS	VNQ	EFV	IJR	EEM	VGK	VPL	SHY	TIP	GLTR
VTV	-	0.95	0.86	0.63	0.83	0.81	0.68	0.79	0.55	-0.03	0.21	0.32
VV	0.95	-	0.83	0.60	0.81	0.83	0.69	0.79	0.57	-0.02	0.24	0.32
IJS	0.86	0.83	-	0.69	0.76	0.96	0.64	0.70	0.50	-0.11	0.13	0.33
VNQ	0.63	0.60	0.69	-	0.60	0.65	0.48	0.57	0.41	0.01	0.29	0.33
EFV	0.83	0.81	0.76	0.60	-	0.74	0.71	0.89	0.71	-0.02	0.21	0.41
IJR	0.81	0.83	0.96	0.65	0.74	-	0.66	0.70	0.51	-0.12	0.12	0.34
EEM	0.68	0.69	0.64	0.48	0.71	0.66	-	0.68	0.59	0.02	0.21	0.44
VGK	0.79	0.79	0.70	0.57	0.89	0.70	0.68	-	0.68	0.01	0.23	0.41
VPL	0.55	0.57	0.50	0.41	0.71	0.51	0.59	0.68	-	0.01	0.20	0.42
SHY	-0.03	-0.02	-0.11	0.01	-0.02	-0.12	0.02	0.01	0.01	-	0.71	-0.03
TIP	0.21	0.24	0.13	0.29	0.21	0.12	0.21	0.23	0.20	0.71	-	0.14
GLTR	0.32	0.32	0.33	0.33	0.41	0.34	0.44	0.41	0.42	-0.03	0.14	-

If you want to learn more about historical correlations, you can find out here how the main asset class are correlated to each other.

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Capital Growth as of May 31, 2023

An investment of 1000$, since June 1993, now would be worth 3806.65$, with a total return of 280.66% (4.56% annualized).

The Inflation Adjusted Capital now would be 1809.44$, with a net total return of 80.94% (2.00% annualized).

An investment of 1000$, since January 1985, now would be worth 9425.70$, with a total return of 842.57% (6.01% annualized).

The Inflation Adjusted Capital now would be 3271.74$, with a net total return of 227.17% (3.13% annualized).

Drawdowns

A drawdown refers to the decline in value from a relative peak value to a relative trough. A maximum drawdown is the maximum observed loss from a peak to a trough of a portfolio before a new peak is attained.

BILL BERNSTEIN SHELTERED SAM 10/90 PORTFOLIO

Drawdown periods

Updated to May 2023

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	Drawdown period			Recovery period		Total
Drawdown	Start	Bottom	#Months	End	#Months	#Months
-9.93%	Jan 2022	Sep 2022	9	in progress	8	17
-6.02%	Apr 2008	Feb 2009	11	Aug 2009	6	17
-5.37%	Feb 1994	Jun 1994	5	Mar 1995	9	14
-3.15%	May 2013	Aug 2013	4	May 2014	9	13
-2.82%	Apr 2004	Apr 2004	1	Sep 2004	5	6
-2.26%	Feb 1996	Apr 1996	3	Sep 1996	5	8
-1.97%	May 2015	Dec 2015	8	Mar 2016	3	11
-1.85%	Feb 1999	Feb 1999	1	Oct 1999	8	9
-1.63%	Sep 2018	Oct 2018	2	Jan 2019	3	5
-1.56%	Jul 2003	Jul 2003	1	Sep 2003	2	3
-1.45%	Mar 2020	Mar 2020	1	Apr 2020	1	2
-1.39%	Sep 2014	Sep 2014	1	Jan 2015	4	5
-1.31%	Dec 1996	Mar 1997	4	Apr 1997	1	5
-1.16%	Aug 2011	Sep 2011	2	Oct 2011	1	3
-1.11%	Nov 2001	Dec 2001	2	Feb 2002	2	4
-1.07%	Oct 2016	Nov 2016	2	Feb 2017	3	5
-1.06%	Aug 1997	Aug 1997	1	Sep 1997	1	2
-1.00%	Jan 2018	Feb 2018	2	Jun 2018	4	6
-0.94%	Nov 1993	Nov 1993	1	Jan 1994	2	3
-0.84%	Dec 2009	Dec 2009	1	Mar 2010	3	4

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	Drawdown period			Recovery period		Total
Drawdown	Start	Bottom	#Months	End	#Months	#Months
-9.93%	Jan 2022	Sep 2022	9	in progress	8	17
-6.02%	Apr 2008	Feb 2009	11	Aug 2009	6	17
-5.37%	Feb 1994	Jun 1994	5	Mar 1995	9	14
-3.15%	May 2013	Aug 2013	4	May 2014	9	13
-2.82%	Apr 2004	Apr 2004	1	Sep 2004	5	6
-2.30%	Mar 1987	May 1987	3	Dec 1987	7	10
-2.26%	Feb 1996	Apr 1996	3	Sep 1996	5	8
-1.97%	May 2015	Dec 2015	8	Mar 2016	3	11
-1.94%	Jan 1990	Apr 1990	4	May 1990	1	5
-1.90%	Sep 1986	Sep 1986	1	Nov 1986	2	3
-1.85%	Feb 1999	Feb 1999	1	Oct 1999	8	9
-1.66%	Mar 1988	May 1988	3	Jun 1988	1	4
-1.64%	Aug 1990	Aug 1990	1	Nov 1990	3	4
-1.63%	Sep 2018	Oct 2018	2	Jan 2019	3	5
-1.56%	Jul 2003	Jul 2003	1	Sep 2003	2	3
-1.51%	Oct 1992	Oct 1992	1	Dec 1992	2	3
-1.45%	Mar 2020	Mar 2020	1	Apr 2020	1	2
-1.44%	May 1986	May 1986	1	Jun 1986	1	2
-1.39%	Sep 2014	Sep 2014	1	Jan 2015	4	5
-1.37%	Jan 1992	Mar 1992	3	May 1992	2	5

Rolling Returns ( more details)

A rolling return is a measure of investment performance that calculates the return of an investment over a set period of time, with the starting date rolling forward. This approach can provide a more accurate representation of the investment's historical performance and helps investors to evaluate the investment's consistency over time.

BILL BERNSTEIN SHELTERED SAM 10/90 PORTFOLIO

Annualized Rolling Returns

Data Source: from January 1985 to May 2023

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Rolling Period	Annualized Return (%)				Negative Periods
Rolling Period	Average	Latest	Best	Worst	Negative Periods
1 Year	6.07	-2.48	27.18 Apr 1985 - Mar 1986	-8.70 Oct 2021 - Sep 2022	10.00%
2 Years	5.97	-2.46	18.61 Mar 1985 - Feb 1987	-2.46 Jun 2021 - May 2023	2.28%
3 Years	5.96	0.41	13.72 Mar 1985 - Feb 1988	0.28 Oct 2019 - Sep 2022	0.00%
5 Years	5.93	1.99	11.90 Sep 1988 - Aug 1993	1.16 May 2013 - Apr 2018	0.00%
7 Years	5.92	2.00	11.75 Jan 1985 - Dec 1991	1.62 Nov 2011 - Oct 2018	0.00%
10 Years	5.88	1.78	10.10 Mar 1985 - Feb 1995	1.45 Oct 2012 - Sep 2022	0.00%
15 Years	5.91	2.41	9.28 Apr 1985 - Mar 2000	2.31 Mar 2008 - Feb 2023	0.00%
20 Years	5.91	3.14	8.93 Jan 1985 - Dec 2004	3.14 Jun 2003 - May 2023	0.00%
30 Years	5.86	4.56	7.21 Mar 1985 - Feb 2015	4.56 Jun 1993 - May 2023	0.00%

Annualized rolling and average returns over full calendar month periods

If you need a deeper detail about rolling returns, please refer to the Bill Bernstein Sheltered Sam 10/90 Portfolio: Rolling Returns page.

Previous vs subsequent Returns

Considering all 10-year rolling periods, is there a relationship between past and future returns, at a given date?

In the following chart, we show how past returns (x-axis) and subsequent returns (y-axis) are related.

Neighboring data is aggregated and occurrences are indicated. It is possible to zoom by clicking or drawing the desired area

BILL BERNSTEIN SHELTERED SAM 10/90 PORTFOLIO

Previous vs Next Returns - 10 Years annualized

Updated to May 2023

The annualized return of the last 10 years has been 1.78% (updated at May 31, 2023).

Seasonality

In which months is it better to invest in Bill Bernstein Sheltered Sam 10/90 Portfolio?

Both the Average Return and the Gain Frequency (Win %) are useful to get an idea of what happened in the past.

For further information about the seasonality, check the Asset Class Seasonality page.

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	Monthly Average Return (%) and Gain Frequency
Return (%)	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec
Average Gain Frequency	0.60 80%	-0.26 40%	0.12 60%	0.40 80%	0.09 80%	-0.01 80%	0.97 100%	0.07 80%	-1.14 0%	0.15 60%	0.83 80%	0.22 60%
Capital Growth on monthly avg returns
100	100.60	100.33	100.45	100.86	100.95	100.94	101.92	102.00	100.83	100.99	101.82	102.05
Best	1.9 2023	0.3 2019	1.9 2023	2.0 2020	0.7 2021	1.2 2019	2.3 2022	1.0 2019	-0.2 2019	1.2 2022	1.7 2022	0.9 2020
Worst	-1.5 2022	-1.4 2023	-1.5 2020	-1.7 2022	-1.1 2023	-2.2 2022	0.1 2018	-2.1 2022	-3.9 2022	-1.2 2018	0.0 2021	-0.8 2022

Monthly Seasonality over the period Jun 2018 - May 2023

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	Monthly Average Return (%) and Gain Frequency
Return (%)	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec
Average Gain Frequency	0.57 80%	-0.09 50%	0.23 60%	0.34 80%	0.14 70%	-0.08 60%	0.69 90%	-0.08 60%	-0.58 20%	0.26 70%	0.37 60%	0.03 50%
Capital Growth on monthly avg returns
100	100.57	100.48	100.71	101.05	101.20	101.12	101.82	101.74	101.15	101.41	101.79	101.82
Best	1.9 2023	0.6 2014	1.9 2023	2.0 2020	1.0 2014	1.3 2016	2.3 2022	1.0 2019	1.2 2013	1.2 2022	1.7 2022	0.9 2020
Worst	-1.5 2022	-1.4 2023	-1.5 2020	-1.7 2022	-1.1 2023	-2.2 2022	-0.3 2014	-2.1 2022	-3.9 2022	-1.2 2018	-0.6 2016	-0.8 2022

Monthly Seasonality over the period Jun 2013 - May 2023

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	Monthly Average Return (%) and Gain Frequency
Return (%)	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec
Average Gain Frequency	0.71 79%	0.28 69%	0.34 62%	0.43 74%	0.54 64%	0.55 76%	0.67 76%	0.46 71%	0.23 66%	0.49 82%	0.53 74%	0.69 74%
Capital Growth on monthly avg returns
100	100.71	100.99	101.33	101.77	102.32	102.89	103.58	104.06	104.30	104.81	105.36	106.09
Best	3.0 1988	3.9 1986	3.8 1986	2.2 1989	4.7 1985	3.1 1986	2.9 1997	2.9 1986	2.3 1998	2.1 1996	2.5 1985	4.1 1991
Worst	-1.6 1990	-2.0 1994	-2.5 1994	-2.8 2004	-1.5 2013	-2.2 2022	-1.6 2003	-2.1 2022	-3.9 2022	-4.0 2008	-1.0 1988	-0.8 2009

Monthly Seasonality over the period Jan 1985 - May 2023

Monthly/Yearly Returns

Bill Bernstein Sheltered Sam 10/90 Portfolio data source starts from January 1985: let's focus on monthly and yearly returns.

We are providing two different views:

Histogram: it shows the distribution of the returns recorded so far
Plain Table: it shows the detailed monthly and yearly returns

MONTHLY RETURNS HISTOGRAM

Jan 1985 - May 2023

333 Positive Months (72%) - 128 Negative Months (28%)

MONTHLY RETURNS TABLE

Jan 1985 - May 2023

(Scroll down to see all data)

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	Yearly Return(%)		Monthly Return(%)
Year	Total	Infl.Adj	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec
2023	+1.51	-0.69	1.9	-1.4	1.9	0.2	-1.1
2022	-8.07	-13.64	-1.5	-0.1	-1.2	-1.7	0.1	-2.2	2.3	-2.1	-3.9	1.2	1.7	-0.8
2021	+3.98	-2.85	0.2	-0.2	0.3	0.9	0.7	0.2	1.0	0.1	-0.8	0.8	0.0	0.7
2020	+6.33	+4.90	0.8	0.0	-1.5	2.0	0.5	0.5	1.3	0.7	-0.4	-0.4	1.6	0.9
2019	+7.34	+4.94	1.5	0.3	1.1	0.5	0.3	1.2	0.1	1.0	-0.2	0.4	0.3	0.5
2018	-0.58	-2.44	-0.1	-0.9	0.4	-0.1	0.5	0.3	0.1	0.6	-0.5	-1.2	0.6	-0.2
2017	+3.00	+0.87	0.5	0.4	0.1	0.3	0.1	-0.2	0.5	0.4	0.0	0.2	0.2	0.4
2016	+3.63	+1.52	0.4	0.5	1.4	0.2	-0.3	1.3	0.6	-0.2	0.4	-0.5	-0.6	0.3
2015	-0.66	-1.38	1.3	-0.2	-0.1	0.3	-0.3	-0.6	0.3	-1.0	-0.3	0.7	-0.2	-0.6
2014	+2.43	+1.66	0.5	0.6	-0.1	0.6	1.0	0.3	-0.3	0.6	-1.4	0.8	0.2	-0.5
2013	-0.38	-1.85	0.3	0.2	0.4	0.6	-1.5	-1.6	1.0	-1.0	1.2	0.6	-0.1	-0.4
2012	+4.12	+2.34	1.5	0.0	-0.1	0.6	0.0	0.2	0.8	0.2	0.5	0.1	0.3	0.0
2011	+5.36	+2.33	0.2	0.6	0.4	1.5	0.1	0.1	1.4	-0.2	-1.0	1.8	0.1	0.2
2010	+5.24	+3.69	0.6	-0.1	0.6	1.3	-0.6	0.2	0.8	0.4	1.2	1.4	-0.8	0.2
2009	+6.25	+3.43	-1.4	-2.0	3.1	0.5	1.5	-0.1	1.0	1.0	1.4	0.1	2.0	-0.8
2008	-0.11	-0.20	1.7	0.9	0.1	-0.5	0.0	-0.1	-0.1	0.6	-1.7	-4.0	0.3	3.0
2007	+8.52	+4.27	0.4	1.0	0.5	0.7	-0.2	0.0	0.9	1.0	1.2	0.9	1.9	0.0
2006	+4.48	+1.90	0.7	0.0	-0.3	0.2	-0.2	0.4	1.0	1.2	0.4	0.7	1.0	-0.6
2005	+2.83	-0.56	-0.3	0.0	-0.2	0.7	0.8	0.5	-0.7	1.2	0.0	-0.8	0.7	0.7
2004	+5.24	+1.92	0.7	1.2	0.8	-2.8	0.9	0.3	0.2	1.5	0.2	0.8	0.2	1.1
2003	+7.80	+5.81	-0.1	1.3	-0.5	0.7	2.6	0.0	-1.6	0.9	1.7	0.7	0.3	1.5
2002	+8.97	+6.44	0.4	0.9	-0.1	1.7	0.9	0.5	0.5	1.9	0.8	-0.8	0.1	1.8
2001	+6.44	+4.82	1.8	0.5	0.3	0.9	0.7	0.1	1.2	0.3	0.2	1.6	-0.8	-0.3
2000	+11.34	+7.70	-0.4	1.2	1.9	-0.2	-0.1	1.8	0.7	1.6	0.2	0.8	1.2	2.1
1999	+1.13	-1.52	0.6	-1.8	0.7	1.1	-0.8	0.2	-0.3	-0.2	0.7	0.5	0.1	0.2
1998	+8.19	+6.47	1.1	0.4	0.7	0.6	0.4	0.8	-0.1	0.1	2.3	0.5	0.6	0.4
1997	+10.11	+8.27	0.3	0.2	-1.2	1.5	1.5	1.4	2.9	-1.1	1.9	0.6	0.7	1.0
1996	+4.80	+1.43	0.8	-1.5	-0.4	-0.3	0.1	1.0	-0.2	0.0	1.8	2.1	2.1	-0.7
1995	+17.42	+14.51	1.7	1.9	0.9	1.3	3.2	0.8	0.4	1.1	1.1	0.8	1.6	1.5
1994	-2.62	-5.15	1.7	-2.0	-2.5	-0.6	-0.1	-0.3	1.8	0.5	-1.5	0.1	-0.6	0.9
1993	+11.64	+8.65	1.9	2.1	0.7	0.8	0.0	1.9	0.8	2.3	0.3	0.4	-0.9	0.9
1992	+7.76	+4.72	-1.3	0.7	-0.8	0.6	2.0	1.0	2.5	0.8	1.4	-1.5	0.4	1.9
1991	+16.09	+12.64	1.3	1.3	0.7	0.9	1.0	-0.6	1.3	2.0	1.7	1.0	0.3	4.1
1990	+7.12	+0.96	-1.6	0.3	0.2	-0.9	2.9	1.3	1.2	-1.6	0.2	1.3	2.2	1.6
1989	+14.51	+9.43	1.5	-0.6	0.6	2.2	2.3	2.5	2.5	-1.1	0.5	1.7	1.1	0.5
1988	+7.50	+2.95	3.0	1.4	-0.8	-0.3	-0.6	2.2	-0.4	-0.3	2.1	1.6	-1.0	0.4
1987	+2.87	-1.50	1.9	0.9	-0.1	-1.9	-0.3	1.5	0.4	0.0	-1.4	0.6	-0.1	1.5
1986	+14.82	+13.57	0.6	3.9	3.8	0.6	-1.4	3.1	0.3	2.9	-1.9	1.2	1.2	-0.1
1985	+20.36	+15.95	2.4	-1.4	1.6	1.8	4.7	1.1	-0.4	1.3	0.3	1.9	2.5	2.9

Portofolio Returns, up to December 2010, are simulated. They have been calculated using the historical series of equivalent ETFs / Assets, instead of the actual ETFs of the portfolio.

In particular, it has been used:

VTV - Vanguard Value: simulated historical serie, up to December 2004
VV - Vanguard Large-Cap: simulated historical serie, up to December 2004

IJS - iShares S&P Small-Cap 600 Value: simulated historical serie, up to December 2000
VNQ - Vanguard Real Estate: simulated historical serie, up to December 2004
EFV - iShares MSCI EAFE Value: simulated historical serie, up to December 2005

IJR - iShares Core S&P Small-Cap: simulated historical serie, up to December 2000
EEM - iShares MSCI Emerging Markets: simulated historical serie, up to December 2003
VGK - Vanguard FTSE Europe: simulated historical serie, up to December 2005

VPL - Vanguard FTSE Pacific: simulated historical serie, up to December 2005
SHY - iShares 1-3 Year Treasury Bond: simulated historical serie, up to December 2002
TIP - iShares TIPS Bond: simulated historical serie, up to December 2003

GLTR - Aberdeen Standard Physical Precious Metals Basket Shares: simulated historical serie, up to December 2010

Portfolio efficiency

Compared to the Bill Bernstein Sheltered Sam 10/90 Portfolio, no other portfolio in our database granted a higher return over 30 Years and a less severe drawdown at the same time.

Here's a list containing the Best Classic Portfolios, with the highest returns over 30 Years and Low Risk categorization.

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		30 Years Stats (%)			% Allocation
Portfolio	Author	Return▾	Dev.Std	Drawdown	Stocks	Bonds	Comm
High Yield Bonds Income		+6.57	8.71	-23.97	0	100	0
Stocks/Bonds 20/80 Momentum		+6.10	4.82	-17.91	20	80	0
All Country World 20/80		+5.75	5.54	-17.97	20	80	0
Stocks/Bonds 20/80		+5.62	4.76	-16.57	20	80	0
Dimensional Retirement Income Fund	DFA	+5.48	4.78	-12.91	20.4	79.6	0