Rebalancing: at every Jan 1st
Currency: USD
When holding the Ben Stein Long Term Portfolio, how long should you stay invested to have high probability to achieve a positive return?
Over the selected period (~49 years), the longest duration with a negative return was 110 months (from January 2000 to February 2009).
This indicates that, within the same timeframe, any rolling period of 111 months or more has consistently resulted in a positive return.
Understanding this metric is crucial as it highlights the importance of a safe investment horizon. Knowing the minimum duration required to likely see positive returns helps investors set realistic expectations and reinforces the strategy of staying invested through market cycles. This approach can mitigate the emotional reactions to short-term market fluctuations and enhance the likelihood of achieving financial goals.
Ben Stein Long Term Portfolio: ETF allocation and returns
Previous vs subsequent Returns
Is there a correlation between past and future returns over all 10-year rolling periods?
The following chart illustrates the relationship between past returns (x-axis) and subsequent returns (y-axis).
Data points are aggregated to show occurrences, and you can zoom in by clicking or drawing over the desired area.
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As of Nov 30, 2024, the annualized return of the previous 10 years has been 7.29%.
Rolling Returns
A rolling return is a measure of investment performance that calculates the return of an investment over a set period of time, with the starting date rolling forward. This approach can provide a more accurate representation of the investment's historical performance and helps investors to evaluate the investment's consistency over time.
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Rolling Period Analysis
By selecting the 'Rolling Period', the chart and data will update. To study a different date range, change the simulation settings.
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Worst | Median | Best | Negative Periods |
---|---|---|---|
-38.83%
Mar 2008 - Feb 2009 |
+12.02% |
+50.38%
Mar 2009 - Feb 2010 |
20.66%
119 out of 576 |
-38.84%
Mar 2008 - Feb 2009 |
+7.78% |
+47.21%
Mar 2009 - Feb 2010 |
25.87%
149 out of 576 |
-22.40%
Mar 2007 - Feb 2009 |
+11.18% |
+34.21%
Mar 2009 - Feb 2011 |
10.46%
59 out of 564 |
-23.97%
Mar 2007 - Feb 2009 |
+6.86% |
+31.40%
Mar 2009 - Feb 2011 |
15.60%
88 out of 564 |
-11.61%
Mar 2006 - Feb 2009 |
+10.62% |
+29.21%
Aug 1984 - Jul 1987 |
7.61%
42 out of 552 |
-13.49%
Mar 2006 - Feb 2009 |
+6.52% |
+25.43%
Aug 1984 - Jul 1987 |
13.41%
74 out of 552 |
-5.58%
Mar 2005 - Feb 2009 |
+10.65% |
+26.51%
Aug 1982 - Jul 1986 |
3.52%
19 out of 540 |
-7.92%
Mar 2005 - Feb 2009 |
+6.57% |
+22.89%
Aug 1982 - Jul 1986 |
12.41%
67 out of 540 |
-2.26%
Mar 2004 - Feb 2009 |
+10.50% |
+26.01%
Aug 1982 - Jul 1987 |
1.33%
7 out of 528 |
-4.78%
Mar 2004 - Feb 2009 |
+6.42% |
+22.17%
Aug 1982 - Jul 1987 |
6.63%
35 out of 528 |
+2.32%
Oct 2005 - Sep 2011 |
+10.26% |
+20.86%
Aug 1982 - Jul 1988 |
0.00%
0 out of 516 |
+0.08%
Dec 2006 - Nov 2012 |
+6.36% |
+16.99%
Aug 1982 - Jul 1988 |
0.00%
0 out of 516 |
+1.22%
Mar 2002 - Feb 2009 |
+9.03% |
+20.87%
Aug 1982 - Jul 1989 |
0.00%
0 out of 504 |
-1.33%
Mar 2002 - Feb 2009 |
+6.18% |
+16.72%
Aug 1982 - Jul 1989 |
0.40%
2 out of 504 |
+0.70%
Mar 2001 - Feb 2009 |
+9.10% |
+19.10%
Aug 1982 - Jul 1990 |
0.00%
0 out of 492 |
-1.66%
Mar 2001 - Feb 2009 |
+6.28% |
+14.84%
Aug 1982 - Jul 1990 |
0.61%
3 out of 492 |
+0.16%
Mar 2000 - Feb 2009 |
+9.05% |
+18.64%
Mar 1978 - Feb 1987 |
0.00%
0 out of 480 |
-2.30%
Mar 2000 - Feb 2009 |
+6.42% |
+13.40%
Aug 1982 - Jul 1991 |
1.25%
6 out of 480 |
+2.15%
Mar 1999 - Feb 2009 |
+9.05% |
+17.86%
Sep 1977 - Aug 1987 |
0.00%
0 out of 468 |
-0.43%
Mar 1999 - Feb 2009 |
+6.51% |
+13.10%
Aug 1982 - Jul 1992 |
0.43%
2 out of 468 |
+2.00%
Mar 1998 - Feb 2009 |
+9.31% |
+17.43%
Aug 1982 - Jul 1993 |
0.00%
0 out of 456 |
-0.49%
Mar 1998 - Feb 2009 |
+6.70% |
+13.30%
Aug 1982 - Jul 1993 |
0.44%
2 out of 456 |
+3.17%
Mar 1997 - Feb 2009 |
+9.23% |
+16.58%
Aug 1982 - Jul 1994 |
0.00%
0 out of 444 |
+0.74%
Mar 1997 - Feb 2009 |
+6.57% |
+12.57%
Aug 1982 - Jul 1994 |
0.00%
0 out of 444 |
+3.72%
Apr 2007 - Mar 2020 |
+9.36% |
+16.09%
Aug 1982 - Jul 1995 |
0.00%
0 out of 432 |
+1.52%
Mar 1996 - Feb 2009 |
+6.57% |
+12.16%
Aug 1982 - Jul 1995 |
0.00%
0 out of 432 |
+4.38%
Apr 2006 - Mar 2020 |
+8.93% |
+16.00%
Jan 1976 - Dec 1989 |
0.00%
0 out of 420 |
+2.46%
Oct 1997 - Sep 2011 |
+6.17% |
+11.83%
Jul 1982 - Jun 1996 |
0.00%
0 out of 420 |
+4.38%
Oct 2007 - Sep 2022 |
+9.12% |
+16.38%
Aug 1982 - Jul 1997 |
0.00%
0 out of 408 |
+1.96%
Oct 2007 - Sep 2022 |
+6.19% |
+12.58%
Aug 1982 - Jul 1997 |
0.00%
0 out of 408 |
+4.55%
Nov 2007 - Oct 2023 |
+8.60% |
+15.62%
Feb 1978 - Jan 1994 |
0.00%
0 out of 396 |
+2.06%
Nov 2007 - Oct 2023 |
+5.82% |
+11.86%
Aug 1982 - Jul 1998 |
0.00%
0 out of 396 |
+5.25%
Nov 2006 - Oct 2023 |
+8.50% |
+15.33%
Aug 1982 - Jul 1999 |
0.00%
0 out of 384 |
+2.68%
Nov 2006 - Oct 2023 |
+5.84% |
+11.74%
Aug 1982 - Jul 1999 |
0.00%
0 out of 384 |
+5.84%
Mar 1998 - Feb 2016 |
+8.57% |
+15.09%
Aug 1982 - Jul 2000 |
0.00%
0 out of 372 |
+3.40%
May 2006 - Apr 2024 |
+6.11% |
+11.50%
Aug 1982 - Jul 2000 |
0.00%
0 out of 372 |
+5.51%
Jan 2000 - Dec 2018 |
+8.59% |
+14.67%
Mar 1978 - Feb 1997 |
0.00%
0 out of 360 |
+3.29%
Jan 2000 - Dec 2018 |
+5.89% |
+10.32%
Aug 1982 - Jul 2001 |
0.00%
0 out of 360 |
+5.02%
Apr 2000 - Mar 2020 |
+8.23% |
+14.79%
Mar 1978 - Feb 1998 |
0.00%
0 out of 348 |
+2.88%
Apr 2000 - Mar 2020 |
+5.77% |
+10.19%
Apr 1980 - Mar 2000 |
0.00%
0 out of 348 |
Ben Stein Long Term Portfolio: ETF allocation and returns