All Country World Stocks Portfolio: Rolling Returns

Simulation Settings
Period: January 1970 - June 2025 (~56 years)
Initial Amount: 1$
Currency: USD
Inflation: US
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When holding the All Country World Stocks Portfolio, how long should you stay invested to have high probability to achieve a positive return?

Over the selected period (~56 years), the longest duration with a negative return was 132 months (from March 1998 to February 2009).

This indicates that, within the same timeframe, any rolling period of 133 months or more has consistently resulted in a positive return.

Understanding this metric is crucial as it highlights the importance of a safe investment horizon. Knowing the minimum duration required to likely see positive returns helps investors set realistic expectations and reinforces the strategy of staying invested through market cycles. This approach can mitigate the emotional reactions to short-term market fluctuations and enhance the likelihood of achieving financial goals.

Previous vs subsequent Returns

Is there a correlation between past and future returns over all 10-year rolling periods?

The following chart illustrates the relationship between past returns (x-axis) and subsequent returns (y-axis).

Data points are aggregated to show occurrences, and you can zoom in by clicking or drawing over the desired area.

ALL COUNTRY WORLD STOCKS PORTFOLIO
Previous vs Next Returns - 10 Years annualized
Time Period: 1 July 1995 - 30 June 2025 (30 Years)
Time Period: 1 January 1970 - 30 June 2025 (~56 years)
30 Years
(1995/07 - 2025/06)
All Data
(1970/01 - 2025/06)

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As of Jun 30, 2025, the annualized return of the previous 10 years has been 10.01%.

Rolling Returns

A rolling return is a measure of investment performance that calculates the return of an investment over a set period of time, with the starting date rolling forward. This approach can provide a more accurate representation of the investment's historical performance and helps investors to evaluate the investment's consistency over time.

ALL COUNTRY WORLD STOCKS PORTFOLIO
Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Returns - Inflation Adjusted
Time Period: 1 July 1995 - 30 June 2025 (30 Years)
Time Period: 1 January 1970 - 30 June 2025 (~56 years)
30 Years
(1995/07 - 2025/06)
All Data
(1970/01 - 2025/06)
US Inflation Adjusted:

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Rolling Period Analysis

By selecting the 'Rolling Period', the chart and data will update. To study a different date range, change the simulation settings.

ALL COUNTRY WORLD STOCKS PORTFOLIO
Rolling Returns Chart
Rolling Returns Chart - Inflation Adjusted
Time Period: 1 January 1970 - 30 June 2025 (~56 years)
Over Time
Histogram
US Inflation Adjusted:

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Swipe left to see all data
Worst Median Best Negative Periods
-48.64%
Mar 2008 - Feb 2009
+13.05% +59.60%
Sep 1985 - Aug 1986
23.21%
152 out of 655
-48.65%
Mar 2008 - Feb 2009
+9.11% +57.12%
Sep 1985 - Aug 1986
31.60%
207 out of 655
-27.99%
Mar 2007 - Feb 2009
+12.15% +55.86%
Oct 1985 - Sep 1987
16.17%
104 out of 643
-29.44%
Mar 2007 - Feb 2009
+6.85% +51.31%
Oct 1985 - Sep 1987
24.42%
157 out of 643
-16.61%
Apr 2000 - Mar 2003
+10.03% +47.48%
Aug 1984 - Jul 1987
13.79%
87 out of 631
-18.61%
Apr 2000 - Mar 2003
+5.92% +43.17%
Aug 1984 - Jul 1987
23.45%
148 out of 631
-8.29%
Apr 1999 - Mar 2003
+9.78% +33.65%
Sep 1983 - Aug 1987
11.95%
74 out of 619
-10.77%
Apr 1999 - Mar 2003
+5.66% +29.29%
Sep 1983 - Aug 1987
25.36%
157 out of 619
-4.36%
Mar 2004 - Feb 2009
+9.90% +37.13%
Aug 1982 - Jul 1987
7.74%
47 out of 607
-7.79%
Feb 1973 - Jan 1978
+5.04% +32.95%
Aug 1982 - Jul 1987
21.42%
130 out of 607
+0.05%
Jul 2007 - Jun 2013
+8.90% +29.39%
Aug 1982 - Jul 1988
0.00%
0 out of 595
-5.10%
Mar 1972 - Feb 1978
+5.21% +25.25%
Aug 1982 - Jul 1988
17.14%
102 out of 595
-0.83%
Mar 2002 - Feb 2009
+9.04% +28.95%
Aug 1982 - Jul 1989
0.34%
2 out of 583
-4.37%
Apr 1973 - Mar 1980
+5.06% +24.52%
Aug 1982 - Jul 1989
9.09%
53 out of 583
-2.44%
Feb 2001 - Jan 2009
+9.06% +23.92%
Aug 1982 - Jul 1990
1.23%
7 out of 571
-4.71%
Feb 2001 - Jan 2009
+5.20% +19.49%
Aug 1982 - Jul 1990
9.98%
57 out of 571
-3.45%
Apr 2000 - Mar 2009
+9.05% +22.20%
Apr 1978 - Mar 1987
1.79%
10 out of 559
-5.75%
Mar 2000 - Feb 2009
+5.49% +16.54%
Aug 1982 - Jul 1991
8.41%
47 out of 559
-1.56%
Mar 1999 - Feb 2009
+9.12% +21.88%
Sep 1977 - Aug 1987
0.91%
5 out of 547
-4.04%
Mar 1999 - Feb 2009
+5.81% +14.63%
Aug 1982 - Jul 1992
8.78%
48 out of 547
-0.11%
Mar 1998 - Feb 2009
+9.15% +20.44%
Feb 1978 - Jan 1989
0.19%
1 out of 535
-2.55%
Mar 1998 - Feb 2009
+6.27% +14.11%
Aug 1982 - Jul 1993
7.10%
38 out of 535
+1.33%
Mar 1997 - Feb 2009
+9.33% +19.79%
Oct 1975 - Sep 1987
0.00%
0 out of 523
-1.11%
Jan 2000 - Dec 2011
+6.30% +13.81%
Aug 1982 - Jul 1994
4.21%
22 out of 523
+2.33%
Mar 1996 - Feb 2009
+9.33% +21.16%
Oct 1974 - Sep 1987
0.00%
0 out of 511
-0.13%
Mar 1996 - Feb 2009
+6.00% +13.80%
Aug 1982 - Jul 1995
0.39%
2 out of 511
+3.30%
Mar 1995 - Feb 2009
+9.30% +19.14%
Oct 1974 - Sep 1988
0.00%
0 out of 499
+0.80%
Mar 1995 - Feb 2009
+5.99% +13.05%
Jul 1982 - Jun 1996
0.00%
0 out of 499
+3.43%
Sep 2000 - Aug 2015
+9.52% +19.44%
Oct 1974 - Sep 1989
0.00%
0 out of 487
+1.13%
Mar 1994 - Feb 2009
+5.97% +14.10%
Aug 1982 - Jul 1997
0.00%
0 out of 487
+3.36%
Apr 2000 - Mar 2016
+8.88% +17.32%
Aug 1982 - Jul 1998
0.00%
0 out of 475
+1.24%
Apr 2000 - Mar 2016
+5.91% +13.60%
Aug 1982 - Jul 1998
0.00%
0 out of 475
+3.76%
Jan 2000 - Dec 2016
+8.48% +17.59%
Aug 1982 - Jul 1999
0.00%
0 out of 463
+1.57%
Jan 2000 - Dec 2016
+5.83% +13.93%
Aug 1982 - Jul 1999
0.00%
0 out of 463
+4.63%
Mar 1991 - Feb 2009
+8.93% +17.12%
Aug 1982 - Jul 2000
0.00%
0 out of 451
+2.02%
Mar 1991 - Feb 2009
+5.71% +13.46%
Aug 1982 - Jul 2000
0.00%
0 out of 451
+3.99%
Jan 2000 - Dec 2018
+9.40% +15.87%
May 1980 - Apr 1999
0.00%
0 out of 439
+1.60%
Mar 1990 - Feb 2009
+5.41% +11.89%
Sep 1981 - Aug 2000
0.00%
0 out of 439
+3.61%
Apr 2000 - Mar 2020
+9.00% +16.15%
Apr 1980 - Mar 2000
0.00%
0 out of 427
+1.50%
Apr 2000 - Mar 2020
+5.60% +11.83%
Apr 1980 - Mar 2000
0.00%
0 out of 427
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