iShares USD Treasury Bond 20+yr (IS04.DE): Rolling Returns

Data Source: from August 1953 to June 2024 (~71 years)
Consolidated Returns as of 30 June 2024

Holding the iShares USD Treasury Bond 20+yr (IS04.DE) ETF, how long should you stay invested to have high probability to obtain a positive return?

Considering all the available data source (~71 years), the longest period with a negative return lasted 158 months (from January 1967 to February 1980).

This means that every rolling period of 159 months or above has always granted a positive return.

To obtain comprehensive information, please consult the iShares USD Treasury Bond 20+yr (IS04.DE) ETF: Historical Returns page.

Previous vs subsequent Returns

Considering all 10-year rolling periods, is there a relationship between past and future returns, at a given date?

In the following chart, we show how past returns (x-axis) and subsequent returns (y-axis) are related.

Neighboring data is aggregated and occurrences are indicated. It is possible to zoom by clicking or drawing the desired area

ISHARES USD TREASURY BOND 20+YR (IS04.DE) ETF
Previous vs Next Returns - 10 Years annualized
Updated to June 2024

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The annualized return of the last 10 years has been 2.96% (updated at Jun 30, 2024).

Rolling Returns

A rolling return is a measure of investment performance that calculates the return of an investment over a set period of time, with the starting date rolling forward. This approach can provide a more accurate representation of the investment's historical performance and helps investors to evaluate the investment's consistency over time.

ISHARES USD TREASURY BOND 20+YR (IS04.DE) ETF
Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Returns - Inflation Adjusted
Data Source: 1 July 1994 - 30 June 2024 (30 Years)
Data Source: 1 August 1953 - 30 June 2024 (~71 years)
Inflation Adjusted:

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Annualized Rolling Returns - 1 Year (12 months)

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Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return +3.29% +74.02%
Nov 1981 - Oct 1982
-26.01%
Jan 2022 - Dec 2022
38.57%
324 out of 840
Euro Inflation Adjusted +0.61% +66.00%
Nov 1981 - Oct 1982
-32.25%
Jan 2022 - Dec 2022
48.69%
409 out of 840
1 Year Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month

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1 Year Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

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Annualized Rolling Returns - 2 Years (24 months)

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Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return +3.88% +46.86%
Nov 1980 - Oct 1982
-18.82%
Nov 2021 - Oct 2023
30.19%
250 out of 828
Euro Inflation Adjusted +1.09% +39.91%
May 1981 - Apr 1983
-23.91%
Nov 2021 - Oct 2023
43.36%
359 out of 828
2 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month

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2 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

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Annualized Rolling Returns - 3 Years (36 months)

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Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return +4.11% +38.80%
Feb 1982 - Jan 1985
-14.36%
Nov 2020 - Oct 2023
19.24%
157 out of 816
Euro Inflation Adjusted +1.83% +34.81%
Feb 1982 - Jan 1985
-19.06%
Nov 2020 - Oct 2023
38.36%
313 out of 816
3 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month

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3 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

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Annualized Rolling Returns - 4 Years (48 months)

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Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return +5.09% +34.33%
Feb 1981 - Jan 1985
-12.37%
May 2020 - Apr 2024
14.30%
115 out of 804
Euro Inflation Adjusted +2.59% +29.33%
Feb 1981 - Jan 1985
-16.20%
May 2020 - Apr 2024
37.94%
305 out of 804
4 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month

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4 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

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Annualized Rolling Returns - 5 Years (60 months)

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Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return +4.37% +32.15%
Mar 1980 - Feb 1985
-4.41%
Jun 2019 - May 2024
9.72%
77 out of 792
Euro Inflation Adjusted +1.91% +27.03%
Apr 1981 - Mar 1986
-7.84%
Jun 2019 - May 2024
33.84%
268 out of 792
5 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month

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5 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

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Annualized Rolling Returns - 6 Years (72 months)

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Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return +4.95% +29.44%
Apr 1980 - Mar 1986
-2.52%
Nov 2017 - Oct 2023
8.08%
63 out of 780
Euro Inflation Adjusted +2.38% +25.15%
Apr 1980 - Mar 1986
-5.75%
Aug 1968 - Jul 1974
33.85%
264 out of 780
6 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month

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6 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

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Annualized Rolling Returns - 7 Years (84 months)

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Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return +6.07% +23.66%
Mar 1980 - Feb 1987
-3.38%
Nov 2016 - Oct 2023
6.25%
48 out of 768
Euro Inflation Adjusted +3.46% +20.11%
Mar 1980 - Feb 1987
-6.25%
Nov 2016 - Oct 2023
30.86%
237 out of 768
7 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month

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7 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

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Annualized Rolling Returns - 8 Years (96 months)

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Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return +6.57% +19.30%
Mar 1980 - Feb 1988
-2.21%
Jul 2016 - Jun 2024
4.37%
33 out of 756
Euro Inflation Adjusted +4.42% +16.48%
Oct 1981 - Sep 1989
-5.42%
Mar 1972 - Feb 1980
30.69%
232 out of 756
8 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month

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8 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

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Annualized Rolling Returns - 9 Years (108 months)

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Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return +6.12% +19.23%
Nov 1980 - Oct 1989
-1.20%
Apr 2015 - Mar 2024
2.55%
19 out of 744
Euro Inflation Adjusted +4.05% +16.24%
Nov 1980 - Oct 1989
-5.52%
Mar 1971 - Feb 1980
29.70%
221 out of 744
9 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month

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9 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

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Annualized Rolling Returns - 10 Years (120 months)

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Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return +6.43% +17.17%
Mar 1980 - Feb 1990
-0.65%
Aug 1963 - Jul 1973
0.68%
5 out of 732
Euro Inflation Adjusted +4.22% +14.11%
Mar 1980 - Feb 1990
-4.62%
Mar 1970 - Feb 1980
27.19%
199 out of 732
10 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month

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10 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

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Annualized Rolling Returns - 11 Years (132 months)

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Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return +7.10% +16.21%
Nov 1980 - Oct 1991
-0.26%
Aug 1962 - Jul 1973
0.14%
1 out of 720
Euro Inflation Adjusted +4.51% +12.97%
Nov 1980 - Oct 1991
-4.27%
Mar 1969 - Feb 1980
27.36%
197 out of 720
11 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month

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11 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

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Annualized Rolling Returns - 12 Years (144 months)

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Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return +7.13% +16.47%
Oct 1981 - Sep 1993
-0.06%
Aug 1961 - Jul 1973
0.28%
2 out of 708
Euro Inflation Adjusted +4.88% +13.52%
Oct 1981 - Sep 1993
-4.37%
Mar 1968 - Feb 1980
27.26%
193 out of 708
12 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month

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12 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

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Annualized Rolling Returns - 13 Years (156 months)

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Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return +7.07% +16.97%
Nov 1980 - Oct 1993
-0.08%
Mar 1967 - Feb 1980
0.14%
1 out of 696
Euro Inflation Adjusted +4.79% +13.63%
Nov 1980 - Oct 1993
-4.22%
Mar 1967 - Feb 1980
27.30%
190 out of 696
13 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month

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13 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

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Annualized Rolling Returns - 14 Years (168 months)

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Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return +7.11% +16.25%
Mar 1980 - Feb 1994
+0.30%
Mar 1966 - Feb 1980
0.00%
0 out of 684
Euro Inflation Adjusted +4.80% +12.90%
Mar 1980 - Feb 1994
-3.73%
Mar 1966 - Feb 1980
25.58%
175 out of 684
14 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month

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14 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

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Annualized Rolling Returns - 15 Years (180 months)

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Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return +7.25% +14.46%
Feb 1981 - Jan 1996
+0.12%
Mar 1965 - Feb 1980
0.00%
0 out of 672
Euro Inflation Adjusted +5.00% +11.38%
Feb 1981 - Jan 1996
-3.91%
Mar 1965 - Feb 1980
24.11%
162 out of 672
15 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month

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15 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

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Annualized Rolling Returns - 16 Years (192 months)

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Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return +7.35% +14.48%
Mar 1980 - Feb 1996
+0.35%
Mar 1964 - Feb 1980
0.00%
0 out of 660
Euro Inflation Adjusted +4.87% +11.37%
Feb 1982 - Jan 1998
-3.55%
Mar 1964 - Feb 1980
23.79%
157 out of 660
16 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month

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16 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

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Annualized Rolling Returns - 17 Years (204 months)

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Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return +7.42% +14.47%
Feb 1981 - Jan 1998
+0.38%
Mar 1963 - Feb 1980
0.00%
0 out of 648
Euro Inflation Adjusted +4.90% +11.54%
Feb 1981 - Jan 1998
-3.41%
Mar 1963 - Feb 1980
22.38%
145 out of 648
17 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month

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17 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

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Annualized Rolling Returns - 18 Years (216 months)

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Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return +7.36% +14.81%
Mar 1980 - Feb 1998
+0.61%
Mar 1962 - Feb 1980
0.00%
0 out of 636
Euro Inflation Adjusted +4.74% +11.73%
Mar 1980 - Feb 1998
-3.17%
Mar 1962 - Feb 1980
21.07%
134 out of 636
18 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month

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18 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

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Annualized Rolling Returns - 19 Years (228 months)

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Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return +7.57% +14.40%
Nov 1981 - Oct 2000
+0.49%
Aug 1954 - Jul 1973
0.00%
0 out of 624
Euro Inflation Adjusted +4.75% +11.80%
Nov 1981 - Oct 2000
-3.25%
Mar 1961 - Feb 1980
19.55%
122 out of 624
19 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month

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19 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

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Annualized Rolling Returns - 20 Years (240 months)

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Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return +7.48% +14.86%
Nov 1980 - Oct 2000
+0.90%
Aug 1954 - Jul 1974
0.00%
0 out of 612
Euro Inflation Adjusted +4.68% +11.98%
Nov 1980 - Oct 2000
-2.61%
Mar 1960 - Feb 1980
17.81%
109 out of 612
20 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month

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20 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

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To obtain comprehensive information, please consult the iShares USD Treasury Bond 20+yr (IS04.DE) ETF: Historical Returns page.