When holding the iShares Edge MSCI USA Quality Factor (QDVB.DE) ETF, how long should you stay invested to have high probability to achieve a positive return?
Over the selected period (~49 years), the longest duration with a negative return was 154 months (from April 2000 to January 2013).
This indicates that, within the same timeframe, any rolling period of 155 months or more has consistently resulted in a positive return.
Understanding this metric is crucial as it highlights the importance of a safe investment horizon. Knowing the minimum duration required to likely see positive returns helps investors set realistic expectations and reinforces the strategy of staying invested through market cycles. This approach can mitigate the emotional reactions to short-term market fluctuations and enhance the likelihood of achieving financial goals.
iShares Edge MSCI USA Quality Factor (QDVB.DE) ETF: Historical Returns
Previous vs subsequent Returns
Is there a correlation between past and future returns over all 10-year rolling periods?
The following chart illustrates the relationship between past returns (x-axis) and subsequent returns (y-axis).
Data points are aggregated to show occurrences, and you can zoom in by clicking or drawing over the desired area.
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As of Sep 30, 2024, the annualized return of the previous 10 years has been 14.51%.
Rolling Returns
A rolling return is a measure of investment performance that calculates the return of an investment over a set period of time, with the starting date rolling forward. This approach can provide a more accurate representation of the investment's historical performance and helps investors to evaluate the investment's consistency over time.
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Rolling Period Analysis
By selecting the 'Rolling Period', the chart and data will update. To study a different date range, change the simulation settings.
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Worst | Median | Best | Negative Periods |
---|---|---|---|
-40.51%
Apr 2002 - Mar 2003 |
+12.74% |
+83.16%
Aug 1996 - Jul 1997 |
24.04%
138 out of 574 |
-41.89%
Apr 2002 - Mar 2003 |
+10.08% |
+80.48%
Aug 1996 - Jul 1997 |
27.87%
160 out of 574 |
-26.64%
Oct 2000 - Sep 2002 |
+12.98% |
+53.32%
Aug 1995 - Jul 1997 |
15.48%
87 out of 562 |
-28.19%
Oct 2000 - Sep 2002 |
+10.01% |
+50.50%
Aug 1995 - Jul 1997 |
20.11%
113 out of 562 |
-19.09%
Apr 2000 - Mar 2003 |
+13.88% |
+47.05%
Apr 1995 - Mar 1998 |
15.82%
87 out of 550 |
-20.96%
Apr 2000 - Mar 2003 |
+11.36% |
+44.58%
Apr 1995 - Mar 1998 |
18.55%
102 out of 550 |
-14.21%
Nov 2000 - Oct 2004 |
+13.68% |
+43.98%
Sep 1996 - Aug 2000 |
12.83%
69 out of 538 |
-16.08%
Nov 2000 - Oct 2004 |
+10.61% |
+41.85%
Sep 1996 - Aug 2000 |
18.40%
99 out of 538 |
-9.69%
May 2000 - Apr 2005 |
+13.35% |
+41.97%
Apr 1995 - Mar 2000 |
11.22%
59 out of 526 |
-11.69%
May 2000 - Apr 2005 |
+10.83% |
+39.73%
Apr 1995 - Mar 2000 |
15.97%
84 out of 526 |
-7.47%
Sep 2000 - Aug 2006 |
+13.59% |
+36.68%
Nov 1994 - Oct 2000 |
11.09%
57 out of 514 |
-9.48%
Sep 2000 - Aug 2006 |
+11.34% |
+34.30%
Nov 1994 - Oct 2000 |
14.59%
75 out of 514 |
-8.36%
Mar 2002 - Feb 2009 |
+13.95% |
+30.30%
May 1993 - Apr 2000 |
8.57%
43 out of 502 |
-10.24%
Mar 2002 - Feb 2009 |
+11.17% |
+27.85%
May 1993 - Apr 2000 |
10.56%
53 out of 502 |
-7.61%
Mar 2001 - Feb 2009 |
+14.31% |
+30.34%
Sep 1992 - Aug 2000 |
7.35%
36 out of 490 |
-9.55%
Mar 2001 - Feb 2009 |
+11.86% |
+27.67%
Sep 1992 - Aug 2000 |
10.00%
49 out of 490 |
-7.71%
Apr 2000 - Mar 2009 |
+14.09% |
+27.85%
Jan 1991 - Dec 1999 |
8.16%
39 out of 478 |
-9.64%
Apr 2000 - Mar 2009 |
+11.68% |
+24.80%
Jan 1991 - Dec 1999 |
9.21%
44 out of 478 |
-4.77%
Sep 2000 - Aug 2010 |
+13.96% |
+28.19%
Nov 1990 - Oct 2000 |
8.15%
38 out of 466 |
-6.66%
Sep 2000 - Aug 2010 |
+11.36% |
+25.20%
Nov 1990 - Oct 2000 |
10.52%
49 out of 466 |
-3.66%
Sep 2000 - Aug 2011 |
+13.75% |
+24.48%
Jan 1989 - Dec 1999 |
7.49%
34 out of 454 |
-5.62%
Sep 2000 - Aug 2011 |
+11.15% |
+21.28%
Jan 1989 - Dec 1999 |
11.23%
51 out of 454 |
-1.12%
Nov 2000 - Oct 2012 |
+12.89% |
+24.87%
Jan 1988 - Dec 1999 |
3.62%
16 out of 442 |
-3.21%
Nov 2000 - Oct 2012 |
+10.61% |
+21.73%
Jan 1988 - Dec 1999 |
8.14%
36 out of 442 |
+0.03%
Sep 2000 - Aug 2013 |
+13.42% |
+23.77%
Dec 1987 - Nov 2000 |
0.00%
0 out of 430 |
-1.98%
Sep 2000 - Aug 2013 |
+10.73% |
+20.69%
Dec 1987 - Nov 2000 |
5.12%
22 out of 430 |
+1.33%
May 2000 - Apr 2014 |
+12.64% |
+20.96%
Oct 1986 - Sep 2000 |
0.00%
0 out of 418 |
-0.68%
May 2000 - Apr 2014 |
+10.01% |
+18.14%
Oct 1986 - Sep 2000 |
1.91%
8 out of 418 |
+2.77%
Sep 2000 - Aug 2015 |
+12.13% |
+20.29%
Nov 1985 - Oct 2000 |
0.00%
0 out of 406 |
+0.94%
Sep 2000 - Aug 2015 |
+9.74% |
+17.70%
Nov 1985 - Oct 2000 |
0.00%
0 out of 406 |
+3.38%
Sep 2000 - Aug 2016 |
+11.56% |
+20.43%
Apr 1984 - Mar 2000 |
0.00%
0 out of 394 |
+1.64%
Sep 2000 - Aug 2016 |
+9.39% |
+17.90%
Apr 1984 - Mar 2000 |
0.00%
0 out of 394 |
+3.45%
Sep 2000 - Aug 2017 |
+11.44% |
+21.35%
Jul 1982 - Jun 1999 |
0.00%
0 out of 382 |
+1.72%
Sep 2000 - Aug 2017 |
+9.12% |
+18.73%
Jul 1982 - Jun 1999 |
0.00%
0 out of 382 |
+4.19%
Apr 2000 - Mar 2018 |
+10.94% |
+21.69%
May 1982 - Apr 2000 |
0.00%
0 out of 370 |
+2.42%
May 2000 - Apr 2018 |
+8.78% |
+18.98%
May 1982 - Apr 2000 |
0.00%
0 out of 370 |
+4.42%
Jan 2000 - Dec 2018 |
+10.87% |
+21.67%
Jul 1980 - Jun 1999 |
0.00%
0 out of 358 |
+2.64%
Jan 2000 - Dec 2018 |
+8.63% |
+18.60%
Jul 1980 - Jun 1999 |
0.00%
0 out of 358 |
+4.59%
Apr 2000 - Mar 2020 |
+10.85% |
+22.28%
Apr 1980 - Mar 2000 |
0.00%
0 out of 346 |
+2.88%
Apr 2000 - Mar 2020 |
+8.64% |
+19.17%
Apr 1980 - Mar 2000 |
0.00%
0 out of 346 |
+7.85%
May 1999 - Apr 2024 |
+11.10% |
+17.50%
Jan 1976 - Dec 2000 |
0.00%
0 out of 286 |
+5.60%
May 1999 - Apr 2024 |
+9.09% |
+14.25%
Jan 1976 - Dec 2000 |
0.00%
0 out of 286 |
+10.53%
Sep 1987 - Aug 2017 |
+11.62% |
+13.71%
Nov 1977 - Oct 2007 |
0.00%
0 out of 226 |
+8.31%
Sep 1987 - Aug 2017 |
+9.34% |
+10.78%
Nov 1977 - Oct 2007 |
0.00%
0 out of 226 |
iShares Edge MSCI USA Quality Factor (QDVB.DE) ETF: Historical Returns