Alpha Architect Robust Portfolio: Rolling Returns

Data Source: from January 1982 to June 2024 (~43 years)
Consolidated Returns as of 30 June 2024

Holding the Alpha Architect Robust Portfolio, how long should you stay invested to have high probability to obtain a positive return?

Considering all the available data source (~43 years), the longest period with a negative return lasted 62 months (from January 2004 to February 2009).

This means that every rolling period of 63 months or above has always granted a positive return.

To obtain comprehensive information, please consult the Alpha Architect Robust Portfolio: ETF allocation and returns page.

Previous vs subsequent Returns

Considering all 10-year rolling periods, is there a relationship between past and future returns, at a given date?

In the following chart, we show how past returns (x-axis) and subsequent returns (y-axis) are related.

Neighboring data is aggregated and occurrences are indicated. It is possible to zoom by clicking or drawing the desired area

ALPHA ARCHITECT ROBUST PORTFOLIO
Previous vs Next Returns - 10 Years annualized
Updated to June 2024

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The annualized return of the last 10 years has been 6.66% (updated at Jun 30, 2024).

Rolling Returns

A rolling return is a measure of investment performance that calculates the return of an investment over a set period of time, with the starting date rolling forward. This approach can provide a more accurate representation of the investment's historical performance and helps investors to evaluate the investment's consistency over time.

ALPHA ARCHITECT ROBUST PORTFOLIO
Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Returns - Inflation Adjusted
Data Source: 1 July 1994 - 30 June 2024 (30 Years)
Data Source: 1 January 1982 - 30 June 2024 (~43 years)
Inflation Adjusted:

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Annualized Rolling Returns - 1 Year (12 months)

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Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return +12.63% +48.51%
Jul 1982 - Jun 1983
-40.18%
Mar 2008 - Feb 2009
16.63%
83 out of 499
US Inflation Adjusted +9.79% +44.92%
Jul 1982 - Jun 1983
-40.19%
Mar 2008 - Feb 2009
23.05%
115 out of 499
1 Year Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month

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1 Year Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

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Annualized Rolling Returns - 2 Years (24 months)

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Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return +12.11% +32.49%
Sep 1985 - Aug 1987
-21.39%
Mar 2007 - Feb 2009
10.06%
49 out of 487
US Inflation Adjusted +8.74% +28.81%
Mar 2009 - Feb 2011
-22.97%
Mar 2007 - Feb 2009
14.37%
70 out of 487
2 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month

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2 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

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Annualized Rolling Returns - 3 Years (36 months)

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Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return +11.01% +31.02%
Aug 1984 - Jul 1987
-11.22%
Mar 2006 - Feb 2009
5.89%
28 out of 475
US Inflation Adjusted +8.06% +27.19%
Aug 1984 - Jul 1987
-13.11%
Mar 2006 - Feb 2009
12.21%
58 out of 475
3 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month

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3 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

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Annualized Rolling Returns - 4 Years (48 months)

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Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return +10.75% +25.96%
Jul 1982 - Jun 1986
-5.31%
Mar 2005 - Feb 2009
4.10%
19 out of 463
US Inflation Adjusted +7.63% +22.23%
Jul 1982 - Jun 1986
-7.65%
Mar 2005 - Feb 2009
9.72%
45 out of 463
4 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month

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4 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

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Annualized Rolling Returns - 5 Years (60 months)

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Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return +10.49% +26.57%
Aug 1982 - Jul 1987
-1.74%
Mar 2004 - Feb 2009
0.67%
3 out of 451
US Inflation Adjusted +7.79% +22.72%
Aug 1982 - Jul 1987
-4.27%
Mar 2004 - Feb 2009
5.32%
24 out of 451
5 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month

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5 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

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Annualized Rolling Returns - 6 Years (72 months)

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Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return +10.46% +20.93%
Jul 1982 - Jun 1988
+2.19%
Oct 2005 - Sep 2011
0.00%
0 out of 439
US Inflation Adjusted +7.55% +17.04%
Jul 1982 - Jun 1988
-0.02%
Oct 2005 - Sep 2011
0.23%
1 out of 439
6 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month

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6 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

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Annualized Rolling Returns - 7 Years (84 months)

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Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return +10.44% +21.62%
Aug 1982 - Jul 1989
+3.26%
Mar 2002 - Feb 2009
0.00%
0 out of 427
US Inflation Adjusted +7.73% +17.45%
Aug 1982 - Jul 1989
+0.66%
Mar 2002 - Feb 2009
0.00%
0 out of 427
7 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month

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7 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

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Annualized Rolling Returns - 8 Years (96 months)

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Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return +10.80% +19.37%
Aug 1982 - Jul 1990
+2.20%
Mar 2001 - Feb 2009
0.00%
0 out of 415
US Inflation Adjusted +7.99% +15.10%
Aug 1982 - Jul 1990
-0.19%
Mar 2001 - Feb 2009
0.24%
1 out of 415
8 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month

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8 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

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Annualized Rolling Returns - 9 Years (108 months)

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Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return +10.78% +18.62%
Aug 1982 - Jul 1991
+3.00%
Mar 2000 - Feb 2009
0.00%
0 out of 403
US Inflation Adjusted +7.82% +14.29%
Aug 1982 - Jul 1991
+0.47%
Mar 2000 - Feb 2009
0.00%
0 out of 403
9 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month

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9 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

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Annualized Rolling Returns - 10 Years (120 months)

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Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return +10.56% +17.98%
Aug 1982 - Jul 1992
+4.41%
Mar 1999 - Feb 2009
0.00%
0 out of 391
US Inflation Adjusted +7.92% +13.75%
Aug 1982 - Jul 1992
+1.77%
Mar 1999 - Feb 2009
0.00%
0 out of 391
10 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month

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10 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

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Annualized Rolling Returns - 11 Years (132 months)

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Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return +10.26% +17.52%
Aug 1982 - Jul 1993
+4.55%
Jan 2008 - Dec 2018
0.00%
0 out of 379
US Inflation Adjusted +7.73% +13.39%
Aug 1982 - Jul 1993
+2.00%
Mar 1998 - Feb 2009
0.00%
0 out of 379
11 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month

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11 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

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Annualized Rolling Returns - 12 Years (144 months)

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Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return +10.30% +16.55%
Mar 1982 - Feb 1994
+4.20%
Apr 2008 - Mar 2020
0.00%
0 out of 367
US Inflation Adjusted +7.85% +12.38%
Aug 1982 - Jul 1994
+2.56%
Apr 2008 - Mar 2020
0.00%
0 out of 367
12 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month

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12 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

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Annualized Rolling Returns - 13 Years (156 months)

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Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return +9.07% +16.58%
Aug 1984 - Jul 1997
+4.06%
Apr 2007 - Mar 2020
0.00%
0 out of 355
US Inflation Adjusted +6.71% +12.77%
Aug 1984 - Jul 1997
+2.24%
Apr 2007 - Mar 2020
0.00%
0 out of 355
13 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month

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13 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

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Annualized Rolling Returns - 14 Years (168 months)

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Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return +9.09% +16.36%
Jul 1982 - Jun 1996
+4.66%
Apr 2006 - Mar 2020
0.00%
0 out of 343
US Inflation Adjusted +6.63% +12.44%
Jul 1982 - Jun 1996
+2.76%
Apr 2006 - Mar 2020
0.00%
0 out of 343
14 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month

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14 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

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Annualized Rolling Returns - 15 Years (180 months)

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Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return +9.44% +17.05%
Aug 1982 - Jul 1997
+4.84%
Oct 2007 - Sep 2022
0.00%
0 out of 331
US Inflation Adjusted +6.97% +13.23%
Aug 1982 - Jul 1997
+2.41%
Oct 2007 - Sep 2022
0.00%
0 out of 331
15 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month

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15 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

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Annualized Rolling Returns - 16 Years (192 months)

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Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return +9.31% +16.69%
Jul 1982 - Jun 1998
+4.72%
Nov 2007 - Oct 2023
0.00%
0 out of 319
US Inflation Adjusted +6.76% +12.98%
Jul 1982 - Jun 1998
+2.23%
Nov 2007 - Oct 2023
0.00%
0 out of 319
16 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month

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16 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

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Annualized Rolling Returns - 17 Years (204 months)

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Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return +9.47% +16.60%
Jul 1982 - Jun 1999
+5.36%
Nov 2006 - Oct 2023
0.00%
0 out of 307
US Inflation Adjusted +6.91% +12.97%
Jul 1982 - Jun 1999
+2.78%
Nov 2006 - Oct 2023
0.00%
0 out of 307
17 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month

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17 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

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Annualized Rolling Returns - 18 Years (216 months)

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Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return +9.77% +16.38%
Jul 1982 - Jun 2000
+5.95%
Nov 2005 - Oct 2023
0.00%
0 out of 295
US Inflation Adjusted +7.16% +12.72%
Jul 1982 - Jun 2000
+3.42%
Nov 2005 - Oct 2023
0.00%
0 out of 295
18 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month

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18 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

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Annualized Rolling Returns - 19 Years (228 months)

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Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return +9.74% +15.64%
Feb 1982 - Jan 2001
+6.41%
Nov 2004 - Oct 2023
0.00%
0 out of 283
US Inflation Adjusted +7.08% +11.92%
Feb 1982 - Jan 2001
+3.77%
Nov 2004 - Oct 2023
0.00%
0 out of 283
19 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month

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19 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

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Annualized Rolling Returns - 20 Years (240 months)

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Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return +9.79% +14.68%
Apr 1982 - Mar 2002
+6.34%
Apr 2000 - Mar 2020
0.00%
0 out of 271
US Inflation Adjusted +7.13% +11.10%
Apr 1982 - Mar 2002
+4.17%
Apr 2000 - Mar 2020
0.00%
0 out of 271
20 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month

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20 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

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To obtain comprehensive information, please consult the Alpha Architect Robust Portfolio: ETF allocation and returns page.