iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond (TLT): Rolling Returns

Data Source: from January 1871 to March 2024 (~153 years)
Consolidated Returns as of 31 March 2024

Holding the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond (TLT) ETF, how long should you stay invested to have high probability to obtain a positive return?

Considering all the available data source (~153 years), the longest period with a negative return lasted 170 months (from December 1945 to January 1960).

This means that every rolling period of 171 months or above has always granted a positive return.

To obtain comprehensive information, please consult the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond (TLT) ETF: Historical Returns page.

Previous vs subsequent Returns

Considering all 10-year rolling periods, is there a relationship between past and future returns, at a given date?

In the following chart, we show how past returns (x-axis) and subsequent returns (y-axis) are related.

Neighboring data is aggregated and occurrences are indicated. It is possible to zoom by clicking or drawing the desired area

ISHARES 20+ YEAR TREASURY BOND (TLT) ETF
Previous vs Next Returns - 10 Years annualized
Updated to March 2024

The annualized return of the last 10 years has been 0.98% (updated at Mar 31, 2024).

Rolling Returns

A rolling return is a measure of investment performance that calculates the return of an investment over a set period of time, with the starting date rolling forward. This approach can provide a more accurate representation of the investment's historical performance and helps investors to evaluate the investment's consistency over time.

ISHARES 20+ YEAR TREASURY BOND (TLT) ETF
Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Returns - Inflation Adjusted
Data Source: 1 April 1994 - 31 March 2024 (30 Years)
Data Source: 1 January 1871 - 31 March 2024 (~153 years)
Inflation Adjusted:

Annualized Rolling Returns - 1 Year (12 months)

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Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return +4.22% +67.15%
Apr 1985 - Mar 1986 		-33.64%
Nov 2021 - Oct 2022 		20.84%
381 out of 1828
US Inflation Adjusted +2.77% +63.62%
Apr 1985 - Mar 1986 		-38.41%
Nov 2021 - Oct 2022 		38.84%
710 out of 1828
1 Year Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month
1 Year Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

Annualized Rolling Returns - 2 Years (24 months)

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Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return +4.17% +49.11%
Jul 1984 - Jun 1986 		-22.92%
Nov 2021 - Oct 2023 		11.95%
217 out of 1816
US Inflation Adjusted +2.89% +45.17%
Jul 1984 - Jun 1986 		-26.92%
Nov 2021 - Oct 2023 		30.89%
561 out of 1816
2 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month
2 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

Annualized Rolling Returns - 3 Years (36 months)

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Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return +4.27% +30.06%
Sep 1983 - Aug 1986 		-17.32%
Nov 2020 - Oct 2023 		8.09%
146 out of 1804
US Inflation Adjusted +3.08% +26.19%
Sep 1983 - Aug 1986 		-21.79%
Nov 2020 - Oct 2023 		29.66%
535 out of 1804
3 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month
3 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

Annualized Rolling Returns - 4 Years (48 months)

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Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return +4.44% +30.03%
Jul 1982 - Jun 1986 		-11.04%
Apr 2020 - Mar 2024 		6.03%
108 out of 1792
US Inflation Adjusted +2.91% +26.18%
Jul 1982 - Jun 1986 		-15.17%
Apr 2020 - Mar 2024 		29.41%
527 out of 1792
4 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month
4 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

Annualized Rolling Returns - 5 Years (60 months)

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Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return +4.42% +28.14%
Sep 1981 - Aug 1986 		-3.94%
Nov 2018 - Oct 2023 		4.16%
74 out of 1780
US Inflation Adjusted +2.83% +23.78%
Sep 1981 - Aug 1986 		-12.22%
Jul 1915 - Jun 1920 		32.19%
573 out of 1780
5 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month
5 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

Annualized Rolling Returns - 6 Years (72 months)

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Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return +4.32% +22.00%
Mar 1981 - Feb 1987 		-4.35%
Nov 2017 - Oct 2023 		3.56%
63 out of 1768
US Inflation Adjusted +2.90% +17.23%
Mar 1981 - Feb 1987 		-9.78%
Jul 1914 - Jun 1920 		31.67%
560 out of 1768
6 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month
6 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

Annualized Rolling Returns - 7 Years (84 months)

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Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return +4.26% +20.15%
Oct 1981 - Sep 1988 		-4.12%
Nov 2016 - Oct 2023 		3.08%
54 out of 1756
US Inflation Adjusted +3.10% +15.94%
Oct 1981 - Sep 1988 		-8.20%
Jun 1913 - May 1920 		31.61%
555 out of 1756
7 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month
7 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

Annualized Rolling Returns - 8 Years (96 months)

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Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return +4.35% +19.46%
Oct 1981 - Sep 1989 		-2.52%
Nov 2015 - Oct 2023 		2.24%
39 out of 1744
US Inflation Adjusted +3.12% +15.16%
Oct 1981 - Sep 1989 		-7.90%
Oct 1973 - Sep 1981 		32.68%
570 out of 1744
8 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month
8 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

Annualized Rolling Returns - 9 Years (108 months)

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Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return +4.41% +17.32%
Oct 1981 - Sep 1990 		-1.64%
Nov 2014 - Oct 2023 		1.73%
30 out of 1732
US Inflation Adjusted +3.14% +13.00%
Jul 1984 - Jun 1993 		-7.28%
Oct 1972 - Sep 1981 		33.26%
576 out of 1732
9 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month
9 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

Annualized Rolling Returns - 10 Years (120 months)

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Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return +4.38% +17.64%
Oct 1981 - Sep 1991 		-0.83%
Jan 1950 - Dec 1959 		0.87%
15 out of 1720
US Inflation Adjusted +3.06% +13.18%
Oct 1981 - Sep 1991 		-6.48%
Oct 1971 - Sep 1981 		35.12%
604 out of 1720
10 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month
10 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

Annualized Rolling Returns - 11 Years (132 months)

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Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return +4.42% +17.19%
Oct 1981 - Sep 1992 		-1.12%
Nov 2012 - Oct 2023 		0.41%
7 out of 1708
US Inflation Adjusted +3.13% +12.84%
Oct 1981 - Sep 1992 		-4.88%
Oct 1970 - Sep 1981 		34.37%
587 out of 1708
11 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month
11 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

Annualized Rolling Returns - 12 Years (144 months)

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Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return +4.33% +17.41%
Oct 1981 - Sep 1993 		-0.28%
Nov 2011 - Oct 2023 		0.29%
5 out of 1696
US Inflation Adjusted +3.13% +13.16%
Oct 1981 - Sep 1993 		-4.68%
Sep 1969 - Aug 1981 		32.61%
553 out of 1696
12 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month
12 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

Annualized Rolling Returns - 13 Years (156 months)

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Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return +4.32% +15.21%
Nov 1980 - Oct 1993 		-0.03%
Jan 1947 - Dec 1959 		0.12%
2 out of 1684
US Inflation Adjusted +3.05% +11.02%
Jul 1982 - Jun 1995 		-5.32%
Oct 1968 - Sep 1981 		31.71%
534 out of 1684
13 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month
13 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

Annualized Rolling Returns - 14 Years (168 months)

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Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return +4.29% +15.55%
Oct 1981 - Sep 1995 		-0.01%
Feb 1946 - Jan 1960 		0.06%
1 out of 1672
US Inflation Adjusted +2.89% +11.51%
Oct 1981 - Sep 1995 		-5.07%
Oct 1967 - Sep 1981 		32.18%
538 out of 1672
14 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month
14 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

Annualized Rolling Returns - 15 Years (180 months)

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Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return +4.27% +14.59%
Oct 1981 - Sep 1996 		+0.07%
Jan 1955 - Dec 1969 		0.00%
0 out of 1660
US Inflation Adjusted +2.64% +10.64%
Oct 1981 - Sep 1996 		-4.98%
Oct 1966 - Sep 1981 		32.59%
541 out of 1660
15 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month
15 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

Annualized Rolling Returns - 16 Years (192 months)

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Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return +4.26% +14.46%
Oct 1981 - Sep 1997 		+0.20%
Jun 1954 - May 1970 		0.00%
0 out of 1648
US Inflation Adjusted +2.61% +10.60%
Oct 1981 - Sep 1997 		-4.98%
Oct 1965 - Sep 1981 		31.13%
513 out of 1648
16 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month
16 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

Annualized Rolling Returns - 17 Years (204 months)

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Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return +4.28% +14.84%
Oct 1981 - Sep 1998 		+0.51%
Jan 1953 - Dec 1969 		0.00%
0 out of 1636
US Inflation Adjusted +2.50% +11.09%
Oct 1981 - Sep 1998 		-4.67%
Oct 1964 - Sep 1981 		30.38%
497 out of 1636
17 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month
17 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

Annualized Rolling Returns - 18 Years (216 months)

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Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return +4.27% +13.45%
Oct 1981 - Sep 1999 		+0.50%
Jun 1952 - May 1970 		0.00%
0 out of 1624
US Inflation Adjusted +2.51% +9.80%
Oct 1981 - Sep 1999 		-4.32%
Oct 1963 - Sep 1981 		31.22%
507 out of 1624
18 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month
18 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

Annualized Rolling Returns - 19 Years (228 months)

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Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return +4.27% +13.24%
Oct 1981 - Sep 2000 		+0.31%
Jan 1951 - Dec 1969 		0.00%
0 out of 1612
US Inflation Adjusted +2.45% +9.58%
Oct 1981 - Sep 2000 		-4.05%
Oct 1962 - Sep 1981 		31.08%
501 out of 1612
19 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month
19 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

Annualized Rolling Returns - 20 Years (240 months)

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Median Best Worst Negative Periods
Annualized Rolling Return +4.26% +13.28%
Oct 1981 - Sep 2001 		+0.24%
Jan 1950 - Dec 1969 		0.00%
0 out of 1600
US Inflation Adjusted +2.51% +9.66%
Oct 1981 - Sep 2001 		-3.73%
Oct 1961 - Sep 1981 		30.19%
483 out of 1600
20 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Timeframes ending in every month
20 Years Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Return Distribution

To obtain comprehensive information, please consult the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond (TLT) ETF: Historical Returns page.