Consolidated Returns as of 31 March 2024
Holding the Larry Swedroe Eliminate Fat Tails Portfolio, how long should you stay invested to have high probability to obtain a positive return?
Considering all the available data source (~39 years), the longest period with a negative return lasted 38 months (from January 2006 to February 2009).
This means that every rolling period of 39 months or above has always granted a positive return.
To obtain comprehensive information, please consult the Larry Swedroe Eliminate Fat Tails Portfolio: ETF allocation and returns page.
Previous vs subsequent Returns
Considering all 10-year rolling periods, is there a relationship between past and future returns, at a given date?
In the following chart, we show how past returns (x-axis) and subsequent returns (y-axis) are related.
Neighboring data is aggregated and occurrences are indicated. It is possible to zoom by clicking or drawing the desired area
The annualized return of the last 10 years has been 2.98% (updated at Mar 31, 2024).
Rolling Returns
A rolling return is a measure of investment performance that calculates the return of an investment over a set period of time, with the starting date rolling forward. This approach can provide a more accurate representation of the investment's historical performance and helps investors to evaluate the investment's consistency over time.
Annualized Rolling Returns - 1 Year (12 months)
Median | Best | Worst | Negative Periods | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Annualized Rolling Return | +6.97% |
+32.01%
Jan 1991 - Dec 1991 |
-16.84%
Mar 2008 - Feb 2009 |
14.57%
67 out of 460 |
US Inflation Adjusted | +4.22% |
+28.19%
Jan 1991 - Dec 1991 |
-17.98%
Oct 2021 - Sep 2022 |
23.91%
110 out of 460 |
Annualized Rolling Returns - 2 Years (24 months)
Median | Best | Worst | Negative Periods | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Annualized Rolling Return | +6.81% |
+20.95%
Oct 1990 - Sep 1992 |
-4.90%
Nov 2021 - Oct 2023 |
8.04%
36 out of 448 |
US Inflation Adjusted | +3.97% |
+17.20%
Oct 1990 - Sep 1992 |
-9.84%
Nov 2021 - Oct 2023 |
14.73%
66 out of 448 |
Annualized Rolling Returns - 3 Years (36 months)
Median | Best | Worst | Negative Periods | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Annualized Rolling Return | +6.34% |
+20.50%
Nov 1990 - Oct 1993 |
-0.99%
Mar 2006 - Feb 2009 |
1.38%
6 out of 436 |
US Inflation Adjusted | +3.67% |
+17.04%
Nov 1990 - Oct 1993 |
-5.65%
Feb 2021 - Jan 2024 |
8.94%
39 out of 436 |
Annualized Rolling Returns - 4 Years (48 months)
Median | Best | Worst | Negative Periods | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Annualized Rolling Return | +6.49% |
+18.02%
Jan 1988 - Dec 1991 |
+0.73%
Mar 2012 - Feb 2016 |
0.00%
0 out of 424 |
US Inflation Adjusted | +3.82% |
+13.02%
Feb 1990 - Jan 1994 |
-3.15%
Nov 2019 - Oct 2023 |
6.37%
27 out of 424 |
Annualized Rolling Returns - 5 Years (60 months)
Median | Best | Worst | Negative Periods | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Annualized Rolling Return | +6.61% |
+17.49%
Jan 1989 - Dec 1993 |
+1.55%
Oct 2017 - Sep 2022 |
0.00%
0 out of 412 |
US Inflation Adjusted | +4.12% |
+13.06%
Jan 1989 - Dec 1993 |
-2.15%
Oct 2018 - Sep 2023 |
5.58%
23 out of 412 |
Annualized Rolling Returns - 6 Years (72 months)
Median | Best | Worst | Negative Periods | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Annualized Rolling Return | +6.84% |
+16.83%
Jan 1988 - Dec 1993 |
+1.67%
Nov 2017 - Oct 2023 |
0.00%
0 out of 400 |
US Inflation Adjusted | +4.25% |
+12.34%
Jan 1988 - Dec 1993 |
-2.00%
Nov 2017 - Oct 2023 |
5.00%
20 out of 400 |
Annualized Rolling Returns - 7 Years (84 months)
Median | Best | Worst | Negative Periods | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Annualized Rolling Return | +6.89% |
+13.98%
Nov 1987 - Oct 1994 |
+1.81%
Apr 2013 - Mar 2020 |
0.00%
0 out of 388 |
US Inflation Adjusted | +4.32% |
+10.08%
Oct 1990 - Sep 1997 |
-0.88%
Nov 2016 - Oct 2023 |
3.87%
15 out of 388 |
Annualized Rolling Returns - 8 Years (96 months)
Median | Best | Worst | Negative Periods | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Annualized Rolling Return | +7.01% |
+13.71%
Jan 1988 - Dec 1995 |
+2.15%
Apr 2012 - Mar 2020 |
0.00%
0 out of 376 |
US Inflation Adjusted | +4.45% |
+9.72%
Jan 1988 - Dec 1995 |
-0.52%
Jun 2015 - May 2023 |
3.99%
15 out of 376 |
Annualized Rolling Returns - 9 Years (108 months)
Median | Best | Worst | Negative Periods | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Annualized Rolling Return | +7.25% |
+13.91%
Jan 1985 - Dec 1993 |
+2.22%
Nov 2014 - Oct 2023 |
0.00%
0 out of 364 |
US Inflation Adjusted | +4.65% |
+9.85%
Jan 1985 - Dec 1993 |
-0.67%
Nov 2014 - Oct 2023 |
4.67%
17 out of 364 |
Annualized Rolling Returns - 10 Years (120 months)
Median | Best | Worst | Negative Periods | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Annualized Rolling Return | +7.23% |
+12.51%
Dec 1987 - Nov 1997 |
+2.25%
Nov 2013 - Oct 2023 |
0.00%
0 out of 352 |
US Inflation Adjusted | +4.65% |
+8.78%
Dec 1987 - Nov 1997 |
-0.52%
Nov 2013 - Oct 2023 |
1.99%
7 out of 352 |
Annualized Rolling Returns - 11 Years (132 months)
Median | Best | Worst | Negative Periods | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Annualized Rolling Return | +7.19% |
+12.21%
Jan 1985 - Dec 1995 |
+2.44%
Nov 2012 - Oct 2023 |
0.00%
0 out of 340 |
US Inflation Adjusted | +4.64% |
+8.42%
Jan 1985 - Dec 1995 |
-0.16%
Nov 2012 - Oct 2023 |
0.59%
2 out of 340 |
Annualized Rolling Returns - 12 Years (144 months)
Median | Best | Worst | Negative Periods | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Annualized Rolling Return | +6.99% |
+11.80%
Jan 1985 - Dec 1996 |
+2.67%
Nov 2011 - Oct 2023 |
0.00%
0 out of 328 |
US Inflation Adjusted | +4.51% |
+8.07%
Jan 1988 - Dec 1999 |
+0.10%
Nov 2011 - Oct 2023 |
0.00%
0 out of 328 |
Annualized Rolling Returns - 13 Years (156 months)
Median | Best | Worst | Negative Periods | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Annualized Rolling Return | +6.98% |
+11.46%
Jan 1985 - Dec 1997 |
+2.74%
Nov 2010 - Oct 2023 |
0.00%
0 out of 316 |
US Inflation Adjusted | +4.40% |
+7.87%
Apr 1985 - Mar 1998 |
+0.10%
Nov 2010 - Oct 2023 |
0.00%
0 out of 316 |
Annualized Rolling Returns - 14 Years (168 months)
Median | Best | Worst | Negative Periods | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Annualized Rolling Return | +6.89% |
+10.74%
Jan 1985 - Dec 1998 |
+3.35%
Nov 2009 - Oct 2023 |
0.00%
0 out of 304 |
US Inflation Adjusted | +4.36% |
+7.29%
May 1985 - Apr 1999 |
+0.79%
Nov 2009 - Oct 2023 |
0.00%
0 out of 304 |
Annualized Rolling Returns - 15 Years (180 months)
Median | Best | Worst | Negative Periods | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Annualized Rolling Return | +6.85% |
+10.87%
Jan 1985 - Dec 1999 |
+2.94%
Nov 2007 - Oct 2022 |
0.00%
0 out of 292 |
US Inflation Adjusted | +4.28% |
+7.45%
Jan 1985 - Dec 1999 |
+0.54%
Nov 2007 - Oct 2022 |
0.00%
0 out of 292 |
Annualized Rolling Returns - 16 Years (192 months)
Median | Best | Worst | Negative Periods | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Annualized Rolling Return | +6.78% |
+10.41%
Jan 1985 - Dec 2000 |
+2.83%
Nov 2007 - Oct 2023 |
0.00%
0 out of 280 |
US Inflation Adjusted | +4.25% |
+7.18%
Jan 1988 - Dec 2003 |
+0.38%
Nov 2007 - Oct 2023 |
0.00%
0 out of 280 |
Annualized Rolling Returns - 17 Years (204 months)
Median | Best | Worst | Negative Periods | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Annualized Rolling Return | +6.80% |
+10.40%
Dec 1987 - Nov 2004 |
+3.49%
Nov 2006 - Oct 2023 |
0.00%
0 out of 268 |
US Inflation Adjusted | +4.29% |
+7.16%
Jan 1988 - Dec 2004 |
+0.96%
Nov 2006 - Oct 2023 |
0.00%
0 out of 268 |
Annualized Rolling Returns - 18 Years (216 months)
Median | Best | Worst | Negative Periods | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Annualized Rolling Return | +6.71% |
+10.29%
Dec 1987 - Nov 2005 |
+3.78%
Feb 2006 - Jan 2024 |
0.00%
0 out of 256 |
US Inflation Adjusted | +4.22% |
+7.03%
Dec 1987 - Nov 2005 |
+1.27%
Feb 2006 - Jan 2024 |
0.00%
0 out of 256 |
Annualized Rolling Returns - 19 Years (228 months)
Median | Best | Worst | Negative Periods | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Annualized Rolling Return | +6.73% |
+10.27%
Dec 1987 - Nov 2006 |
+4.12%
Nov 2004 - Oct 2023 |
0.00%
0 out of 244 |
US Inflation Adjusted | +4.24% |
+7.06%
Dec 1987 - Nov 2006 |
+1.53%
Nov 2004 - Oct 2023 |
0.00%
0 out of 244 |
Annualized Rolling Returns - 20 Years (240 months)
Median | Best | Worst | Negative Periods | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Annualized Rolling Return | +6.69% |
+10.32%
Dec 1987 - Nov 2007 |
+4.34%
Nov 2003 - Oct 2023 |
0.00%
0 out of 232 |
US Inflation Adjusted | +4.24% |
+7.06%
Nov 1987 - Oct 2007 |
+1.72%
Nov 2003 - Oct 2023 |
0.00%
0 out of 232 |
To obtain comprehensive information, please consult the Larry Swedroe Eliminate Fat Tails Portfolio: ETF allocation and returns page.