iShares 20+ Year US Treasury Bond Index (XTLT.TO): Historical Returns

Simulation Settings

Category: Fixed Income

Period: August 1953 - June 2026 (~73 years)
Consolidated Returns as of 30 June 2026

Initial Amount: 1$

Currency: CAD

Inflation: Canada

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The iShares 20+ Year US Treasury Bond Index (XTLT.TO) ETF covers to the following investment themes:

Asset Class: Bond
Region: North America
Country: U.S.
Bond - Duration: Long-Term

As of June 2026, in the previous 30 Years, the iShares 20+ Year US Treasury Bond Index (XTLT.TO) ETF obtained a 4.76% compound annual return, with a 15.71% standard deviation. It suffered a maximum drawdown of -45.79% which has been ongoing for 74 months and is still in progress.

Disclaimer: The simulations on this website are provided in good faith but should NOT be taken as investment advice. We are not liable for any errors or actions based on this information. The authors of the website are not affiliated with the ETFs/Assets issuers. Content is for informational, educational, illustrative and entertainment purposes only.

The iShares 20+ Year US Treasury Bond Index (XTLT.TO) ETF is part of the following Lazy Portfolios:

Portfolio Name	Author	XTLT.TO Weight▾	Currency
US All Weather Portfolio To CAD	Ray Dalio	40.00%	CAD
US Permanent Portfolio To CAD	Harry Browne	25.00%	CAD
US Golden Butterfly To CAD	Tyler	20.00%	CAD

Investment Returns as of Jun 30, 2026

Returns are calculated in CAD, assuming:

no fees or capital gain taxes.
dividend reinvestment, when applicable.
the actual Canada Inflation rates.

ISHARES 20+ YEAR US TREASURY BOND INDEX (XTLT.TO) ETF

Capital Growth

Inflation Adj:

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	Chg (%)		Return (%)	Return (%) as of Jun 30, 2026
	1 Day	Time ET^(*)	---	YTD (6M)	1M	6M	1Y	5Y	10Y	30Y	MAX (~73Y)
Investment Return	---		---	4.36	4.20	4.36	5.94	-4.41	-1.18	4.76	5.97
Canada Inflation Adjusted Return				1.53	4.20	1.53	2.69	-7.83	-3.84	2.53	2.40
Returns over 1 year are annualized
(*) Eastern Time (ET - America/New York)
The live monthly return is calculated by assuming, for each asset, the weight defined by the base asset allocation.
Canada Inflation is updated to May 2026. Pending updates, the monthly inflation is set at 0% for the subsequent periods. Inflation (annualized) is 1Y: 3.16% , 5Y: 3.70% , 10Y: 2.77% , 30Y: 2.17%

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Investment Metrics as of Jun 30, 2026

Metrics are calculated based on monthly returns, assuming:

no fees or capital gain taxes.
dividend reinvestment, when applicable.
the actual Canada Inflation rates.

ISHARES 20+ YEAR US TREASURY BOND INDEX (XTLT.TO) ETF

Advanced Metrics

1 August 1953 - 30 June 2026 (~73 years)

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	Metrics as of Jun 30, 2026
	YTD (6M)	1M	3M	6M	1Y	3Y	5Y	10Y	20Y	30Y	MAX (~73Y)
Investment Return (%)	4.36	4.20	2.79	4.36	5.94	0.16	-4.41	-1.18	4.51	4.76	5.97
Growth of 1$	1.04	1.04	1.03	1.04	1.06	1.00	0.80	0.89	2.41	4.04	68.63
Infl. Adjusted Return (%)	1.53	4.20	1.45	1.53	2.69	-2.34	-7.83	-3.84	2.25	2.53	2.40
Canada Inflation (%)	2.79	0.00	1.31	2.79	3.16	2.56	3.70	2.77	2.21	2.17	3.49
Pending updates, the monthly inflation of Jun 2026 and beyond is set at 0%. Returns / Inflation rates over 1 year are annualized.
DRAWDOWN Inflation Adjusted: Inflation Adjusted:				Current	1Y	3Y	5Y	10Y	20Y	30Y	MAX
Deepest Drawdown Depth (%)				-37.55	-6.69	-12.78	-36.42	-45.79	-45.79	-45.79	-45.79
Start to Recovery (# months)				74*	8*	13	55*	74*	74*	74*	74*
Start (yyyy mm)					2025 11	2023 07	2021 12	2020 05	2020 05	2020 05	2020 05
Start to Bottom (# months)					6	4	23	42	42	42	42
Bottom (yyyy mm)					2026 04	2023 10	2023 10	2023 10	2023 10	2023 10	2023 10
Bottom to End (# months)					2	9	32	32	32	32	32
End (yyyy mm)					-	2024 07	-	-	-	-	-
Longest Drawdown Depth (%)					same	-10.70	same	same	same	same	same
Start to Recovery (# months)					same	16*	same	same	same	same	same
Start (yyyy mm)					2025 11	2025 03	2021 12	2020 05	2020 05	2020 05	2020 05
Start to Bottom (# months)					6	3	23	42	42	42	42
Bottom (yyyy mm)					2026 04	2025 05	2023 10	2023 10	2023 10	2023 10	2023 10
Bottom to End (# months)					2	13	32	32	32	32	32
End (yyyy mm)					-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Longest negative period (# months)					10	35	60*	120*	137*	137*	137*
Start (yyyy mm)					2025 07	2023 07	2021 07	2016 07	2015 02	2015 02	2015 02
End (yyyy mm)					2026 04	2026 05	2026 06	2026 06	2026 06	2026 06	2026 06
Annualized Return (%)					-0.30	-1.24	-4.41	-1.18	-0.56	-0.56	-0.56
Drawdowns / Negative periods marked with * are in progress
Adjusting for units held makes the drawdown reflect real performance, just like in the no-cash-flow case.
Deepest Drawdown Depth (%)				-50.03	-8.19	-13.55	-42.19	-53.62	-53.62	-53.62	-53.62
Start to Recovery (# months)				74*	8*	15	55*	74*	74*	74*	74*
Start (yyyy mm)					2025 11	2023 07	2021 12	2020 05	2020 05	2020 05	2020 05
Start to Bottom (# months)					6	4	23	42	42	42	42
Bottom (yyyy mm)					2026 04	2023 10	2023 10	2023 10	2023 10	2023 10	2023 10
Bottom to End (# months)					2	11	32	32	32	32	32
End (yyyy mm)					-	2024 09	-	-	-	-	-
Longest Drawdown Depth (%)					same	-11.74	same	same	same	same	-52.62
Start to Recovery (# months)					same	16*	same	same	same	same	247
Start (yyyy mm)					2025 11	2025 03	2021 12	2020 05	2020 05	2020 05	1965 04
Start to Bottom (# months)					6	14	23	42	42	42	198
Bottom (yyyy mm)					2026 04	2026 04	2023 10	2023 10	2023 10	2023 10	1981 09
Bottom to End (# months)					2	2	32	32	32	32	49
End (yyyy mm)					-	-	-	-	-	-	1985 10
Longest negative period (# months)					11	36*	60*	120*	210*	210*	380
Start (yyyy mm)					2025 07	2023 07	2021 07	2016 07	2009 01	2009 01	1953 08
End (yyyy mm)					2026 05	2026 06	2026 06	2026 06	2026 06	2026 06	1985 03
Annualized Return (%)					-1.58	-2.34	-7.83	-3.84	-0.41	-0.41	-0.03
Drawdowns / Negative periods marked with * are in progress
Adjusting for units held makes the drawdown reflect real performance, just like in the no-cash-flow case.
RISK INDICATORS					1Y	3Y	5Y	10Y	20Y	30Y	MAX
Standard Deviation (%)					10.44	12.23	12.78	14.26	17.70	15.71	12.33
Sharpe Ratio					0.20	-0.36	-0.62	-0.24	0.17	0.16	0.15
Sortino Ratio					0.29	-0.52	-0.89	-0.37	0.27	0.25	0.23
Ulcer Index					3.33	5.77	25.69	26.76	21.74	18.87	12.97
Ratio: Return / Standard Deviation					0.57	0.01	-0.35	-0.08	0.25	0.30	0.48
Ratio: Return / Deepest Drawdown					0.89	0.01	-0.12	-0.03	0.10	0.10	0.13
Positive Months (%)					50.00	47.22	45.00	45.00	48.33	50.27	53.82
Positive Months					6	17	27	54	116	181	471
Negative Months					6	19	33	66	124	179	404
LONG TERM RETURNS Inflation Adjusted: Inflation Adjusted:					1Y	3Y	5Y	10Y	20Y	30Y	MAX
Best 10 Years Return (%) - Annualized								-1.18	13.01	13.01	16.93
Worst 10 Years Return (%) - Annualized								-1.18	-1.49	-1.49	-1.49
Best 10 Years Return (%) - Annualized								-3.84	11.14	11.14	12.12
Worst 10 Years Return (%) - Annualized								-3.84	-4.05	-4.05	-5.36
TIMEFRAMES Inflation Adjusted: Inflation Adjusted:		1M	3M	6M	1Y	3Y	5Y	10Y	20Y	30Y	MAX
··· As of Jun 2026 - Over the previous 30Y
Best Rolling Return (%) - Annualized					63.51	21.90	18.05	13.01	8.05	4.76
Worst Rolling Return (%) - Annualized					-32.39	-15.85	-9.87	-1.49	3.14	4.76
Positive Periods (%)					61.0	72.6	78.7	95.0	100.0	100.0
Best Rolling Return (%) - Annualized					61.63	20.04	16.32	11.14	6.08	2.53
Worst Rolling Return (%) - Annualized					-33.28	-19.86	-13.20	-4.05	0.94	2.53
Positive Periods (%)					55.3	63.3	67.7	87.9	100.0	100.0
95% VaR - Value at Risk (%) - Cumulative		6.97	11.46	15.34	18.44	24.27	22.17	0.87	0.00
95% CVaR - Conditional Value at Risk (%)		8.86	14.72	19.96	23.70	32.88	33.48	7.87	0.00
99% VaR - Value at Risk (%) - Cumulative		10.06	16.81	22.91	27.38	38.65	40.03	11.19	0.00
99% CVaR - Conditional Value at Risk (%)		12.03	20.22	27.73	30.76	40.38	40.33	13.94	0.00
Short term VaRs: analytical \| 1+ year VaRs: historical data
Safe Withdrawal Rate (%)					78.46	22.92	12.16	8.46	5.40	6.11
Perpetual Withdrawal Rate (%)					---	---	---	---	1.06	3.23
% based on initial capital, inflation-adj. monthly withdrawals afterwards \| Credits: BestRetirementPortfolio.com
··· All available data (Aug 1953 - Jun 2026)
Best Rolling Return (%) - Annualized					70.79	35.11	31.32	16.93	14.83	11.32
Worst Rolling Return (%) - Annualized					-32.39	-15.85	-9.87	-1.49	1.28	3.70
Positive Periods (%)					66.4	77.2	86.5	98.4	100.0	100.0
Best Rolling Return (%) - Annualized					63.68	29.93	24.41	12.12	11.08	8.05
Worst Rolling Return (%) - Annualized					-33.28	-19.86	-13.20	-5.36	-3.19	-1.22
Positive Periods (%)					54.3	60.0	58.5	72.2	77.2	95.7
95% VaR - Value at Risk (%) - Cumulative		5.31	8.50	11.06	11.49	12.76	11.44	0.00	0.00	0.00
95% CVaR - Conditional Value at Risk (%)		6.79	11.06	14.68	18.00	24.20	23.04	0.00	0.00	0.00
99% VaR - Value at Risk (%) - Cumulative		7.73	12.70	17.00	22.67	33.89	31.42	7.19	0.00	0.00
99% CVaR - Conditional Value at Risk (%)		9.28	15.38	20.78	27.29	37.05	38.01	9.83	0.00	0.00
Short term VaRs: analytical \| 1+ year VaRs: historical data
Safe Withdrawal Rate (%)					78.46	22.92	12.16	7.96	3.69	2.75
Perpetual Withdrawal Rate (%)					---	---	---	---	---	---
% based on initial capital, inflation-adj. monthly withdrawals afterwards \| Credits: BestRetirementPortfolio.com

Terms and Definitions

Annualized Portfolio Return: the annualized geometric mean return of the portfolio. When cashflows are involved, it is calculated using the Money-Weighted Rate of Return (MWRR), based on the Modified Dietz formula.
Deepest/Longest Drawdown: a drawdown refers to the decline in value from a relative peak value to a relative trough. The deepest (or maximum) drawdown is the maximum observed loss from a peak to a trough of a portfolio before a new peak is attained. The longest drawdown is the period observed from a peak to the subsequent peak with the greatest duration. When cashflows are involved, portfolio values are normalized by the invested capital (i.e. owned quotes) at each time step: this isolates the effect of market performance from capital contributions, avoiding misleading drawdowns caused by large inflows that artificially lift portfolio value and, as a result, the drawdowns match the ones without cash flows.
Longest negative period: it's the maximum period for which an overall negative return has been observed.
Standard Deviation: it's a measure of the dispersion of returns around the mean.
Sharpe Ratio: it's a measure of risk-adjusted performance of the portfolio. It's calculated by dividing the excess return of the portfolio over the risk-free rate by the portfolio standard deviation. The risk-free rate here considered is the 1-3 Mth T-Bill return.
Sortino Ratio: another measure of risk-adjusted performance of the portfolio. It's a modification of the Sharpe Ratio (same formula but the denominator is the portfolio downside standard deviation).
Ulcer Index: it's a measure of downside risk that quantifies the depth and duration of drawdowns in an investment portfolio.
Best/Worst 10Y returns: the best and the worst 10-year return over a time frame.
Rolling Returns: N-year returns over a time frame, calculated over all the available data source (best, worst, % of positive returns). Each rolling period, longer than the longest negative period, yielded a non-negative minimum return.
Value at Risk (VaR): it's an evaluation of a cumulative worst-case loss (in absolute value), associated with a probability (95%-99%) and a time horizon. For short term, it's calculated based on the expected return and standard deviation, assuming a normal distribution of monthly returns. For long term is retrieved by the historical rolling return data.
Conditional Value at Risk (CVaR): it represents the average expected loss if that worst-case threshold (95%-99%) is ever crossed.
Safe Withdrawal Rate (SWR): it's the percentage of the initial portfolio balance that can be withdrawn at the beginning of each month with inflation adjustment, without the portfolio running out of money in any case (money amount withdrawal).
For instance: Your initial invested capital is 100.000$; withdrawal rate (annualized) is 4%. This means that, in the first month, you will withdraw 100.000 * 4% * 1/12 = 333.33$. The second month, you’ll withdraw 333.33$ plus the inflation monthly rate. You’ll continue adjusting your withdraw monthly for inflation.
Perpetual Withdrawal Rate (PWR): it's the percentage of the initial portfolio balance that can be withdrawn at the beginning of each month with inflation adjustment, preserving the original invested capital, adjusted for inflation too.

Correlations as of Jun 30, 2026

Correlation measures to what degree the returns of two assets move in relation to each other. It is a statistical measure that describes the extent to which the returns of one asset are related to the returns of another asset.

The following table shows the monthly correlations of iShares 20+ Year US Treasury Bond Index (XTLT.TO) ETF vs the main Asset Classes, over different timeframes. Columns are sortable (click on table header to sort).

ISHARES 20+ YEAR US TREASURY BOND INDEX (XTLT.TO) ETF

Monthly correlations as of 30 June 2026

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		Correlation vs XTLT.TO
	Asset Class	1 Year	5 Years	10 Years	30 Years
VUN.TO	US Total Stock Market	0.25	0.40	0.04	-0.09
VFV.TO	US Large Cap Blend	0.23	0.40	0.05	-0.05
XMC.TO	US Mid Cap Blend	0.46	0.42	-0.06	-0.13
XSMC.TO	US Small Cap Blend	0.25	0.42	-0.09	-0.17
QQC.TO	US Technology	0.17	0.43	0.19	-0.07
ZUP.TO	US Preferred Stocks	0.51	0.48	0.22	0.29
XIC.TO	Canada Large Cap	0.40	0.41	-0.04	-0.33
XEF.TO	EAFE Stocks	0.46	0.50	0.07	-0.12
XEC.TO	Emerging Markets	0.33	0.43	0.07	-0.23
ZUAG.TO	US Total Bond Market	0.89	0.81	0.85	0.87
ZUCM.TO	US Cash	0.65	-0.03	0.35	0.60
XSTP.TO	US TIPS	0.64	0.22	0.59	0.80
XCBU.TO	US Invest. Grade Bonds	0.85	0.85	0.81	0.83
ZJK.TO	US High Yields Bonds	0.74	0.45	0.21	0.32
ZAG.TO	Canada Total Bonds	0.69	0.75	0.64	0.57
ZFL.TO	Canada Long Term Bonds	0.80	0.80	0.78	0.70
ZGLD.TO	Gold	0.30	0.25	0.37	0.29
CCOM.TO	Commodities	-0.24	-0.29	-0.37	-0.17

Learn about historical correlations here: see how the main asset classes relate to each other.

Drawdowns

A drawdown refers to the decline in value from a relative peak value to a relative trough. A maximum drawdown is the maximum observed loss from a peak to a trough of a portfolio before a new peak is attained.

ISHARES 20+ YEAR US TREASURY BOND INDEX (XTLT.TO) ETF

Drawdown periods

Inflation Adj:

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Rolling Return Analysis

A rolling return is a measure of investment performance that calculates the return of an investment over a set period of time, with the starting date rolling forward. This approach can provide a more accurate representation of the investment's historical performance and helps investors to evaluate the investment's consistency over time.

ISHARES 20+ YEAR US TREASURY BOND INDEX (XTLT.TO) ETF

Annualized Rolling Returns — Over Time & Distribution

The values shown for the rolling periods represent key statistical points: the minimum, maximum, median, and two user-defined percentiles. The lower and upper percentiles (default: 15th and 85th) can be adjusted using the inputs above. They give insight into the distribution of the data, while the median represents the middle value.

Holding Periods and Returns

Holding periods are based on rolling periods: each rolling window represents the return an investor would have achieved by holding the investment for a fixed period (e.g., 10, 20, or 30 years) starting from different dates.

ISHARES 20+ YEAR US TREASURY BOND INDEX (XTLT.TO) ETF

Annualized Rolling Returns

Inflation Adj:

Percentiles: – Changes pending. Click 'Update' to refresh

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Time to Target

What it shows: Months to reach your target capital from each historical entry point, accounting for your initial investment and periodic contributions.

ISHARES 20+ YEAR US TREASURY BOND INDEX (XTLT.TO) ETF

Time to reach your Target Capital

Monthly Returns and Seasonality

This section provides a visual/tabular representation of the performance variability in the iShares 20+ Year US Treasury Bond Index (XTLT.TO) ETF over time. It illustrates the distribution of monthly returns, showcasing the range and frequency of positive and negative returns.

ISHARES 20+ YEAR US TREASURY BOND INDEX (XTLT.TO) ETF

Monthly Returns Distribution

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Monthly Seasonality Analysis

72 full years are available for analysis


Avg Return (%)
Win Count
Loss Count
Win %
Worst Return (%)
Best Return (%)

For further information about the seasonality, check the Asset Class Seasonality page.

Methodology

Returns, up to February 2023, have been derived using the historical series of equivalent ETFs / Assets.

You can find additional information on extended Data Sources here.

Drawdown Analysis			Occurrencies (End of Month)			Cumulative
Phase	Frequency	Range	#Num	Every (Avg)	Frequency	Range	Frequency

Drawdown Analysis			Occurrencies (End of Month)			Cumulative
Phase	Frequency	Range	#Num	Every (Avg)	Frequency	Range	Frequency

Drawdown Analysis			Occurrencies (End of Month)			Cumulative
Phase	Frequency	Range	#Num	Every (Avg)	Frequency	Range	Frequency

Drawdown Analysis			Occurrencies (End of Month)			Cumulative
Phase	Frequency	Range	#Num	Every (Avg)	Frequency	Range	Frequency

Rolling Period	Worst Period			Latest	Negative Periods
Rolling Period	Ann. Return	From To	Ann. Return	Latest	Negative Periods	Ann. Return	Ann. Return	Ann. Return	From To

Annualized rolling and percentiles/median returns over full calendar month periods.

	Intra Year Stats		Monthly Return (%)
Year	Return	Drawdown	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec

Table of contents

Investment Returns as of Jun 30, 2026

Investment Metrics as of Jun 30, 2026

Correlations as of Jun 30, 2026

Drawdowns

Rolling Return Analysis

Holding Periods and Returns

Time to Target

Monthly Returns and Seasonality