Short Term Treasury Portfolio: ETF allocation and returns

Data Source: from January 1871 to February 2024 (~153 years)
Consolidated Returns as of 29 February 2024
Live Update: Mar 27 2024
PORTFOLIO • LIVE PERFORMANCE (USD currency)
0.11%
1 Day
Mar 27 2024
0.40%
Current Month
March 2024

The Short Term Treasury Portfolio is a Low Risk portfolio and can be implemented with 1 ETF.

It's exposed for 0% on the Stock Market.

In the last 30 Years, the Short Term Treasury Portfolio obtained a 3.03% compound annual return, with a 1.80% standard deviation.

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Asset Allocation and ETFs

The Short Term Treasury Portfolio has the following asset allocation:

0% Stocks
100% Fixed Income
0% Commodities

The Short Term Treasury Portfolio can be implemented with the following ETFs:

Weight (%) Ticker Currency ETF Name Investment Themes
100.00
SHY
USD iShares 1-3 Year Treasury Bond Bond, U.S., Short Term

Most of Lazy Portfolios are made of common components (asset classes), very simple and well defined. For a more complete view, find out the most common ETFs you can use to build your portfolio.

Portfolio and ETF Returns as of Feb 29, 2024

The Short Term Treasury Portfolio guaranteed the following returns.

Returns are calculated in USD, assuming:
  • no fees or capital gain taxes.
  • the reinvestment of dividends.
  • the actual US Inflation rates.
SHORT TERM TREASURY PORTFOLIO
Consolidated returns as of 29 February 2024
Live Update: Mar 27 2024
Swipe left to see all data
  Chg (%) Return (%) Return (%) as of Feb 29, 2024
  1 Day Time ET(*) Mar 2024 1M 6M 1Y 5Y 10Y 30Y MAX
(~153Y)
Short Term Treasury Portfolio 0.11 0.40 -0.39 2.35 4.12 1.03 0.87 3.03 4.42
US Inflation Adjusted return -0.83 0.75 0.93 -3.04 -1.90 0.48 2.25
Returns over 1 year are annualized | Available data source: since Jan 1871
(*) Eastern Time (ET - America/New York)
US Inflation is updated to Feb 2024. Current inflation (annualized) is 1Y: 3.17% , 5Y: 4.19% , 10Y: 2.82% , 30Y: 2.54%

In 2023, the Short Term Treasury Portfolio granted a 3.06% dividend yield. If you are interested in getting periodic income, please refer to the Short Term Treasury Portfolio: Dividend Yield page.

Capital Growth as of Feb 29, 2024

An investment of 1$, since March 1994, now would be worth 2.45$, with a total return of 144.73% (3.03% annualized).

The Inflation Adjusted Capital now would be 1.15$, with a net total return of 15.42% (0.48% annualized).
An investment of 1$, since January 1871, now would be worth 756.79$, with a total return of 75579.13% (4.42% annualized).

The Inflation Adjusted Capital now would be 30.36$, with a net total return of 2936.01% (2.25% annualized).

Portfolio Metrics as of Feb 29, 2024

Metrics of Short Term Treasury Portfolio, updated as of 29 February 2024.

Metrics are calculated based on monthly returns, assuming:
  • no fees or capital gain taxes.
  • the reinvestment of dividends.
  • the actual US Inflation rates.
SHORT TERM TREASURY PORTFOLIO
Advanced Metrics
Data Source: 1 January 1871 - 29 February 2024 (~153 years)
Swipe left to see all data
Metrics as of Feb 29, 2024
1M 3M 6M 1Y 3Y 5Y 10Y 20Y 30Y MAX
(~153Y)
Investment Return (%) -0.39 1.03 2.35 4.12 -0.27 1.03 0.87 1.63 3.03 4.42
Infl. Adjusted Return (%) details -0.83 0.04 0.75 0.93 -5.63 -3.04 -1.90 -0.93 0.48 2.25
US Inflation (%) 0.44 0.98 1.59 3.17 5.68 4.19 2.82 2.59 2.54 2.12
Returns / Inflation rates over 1 year are annualized.
DRAWDOWN
Inflation Adjusted:
Inflation Adjusted:
1Y 3Y 5Y 10Y 20Y 30Y MAX
Deepest Drawdown Depth (%) -0.87 -5.36 -5.36 -5.36 -5.36 -5.36 -8.52
Start to Recovery (# months) details 6 33* 33* 33* 33* 33* 13
Start (yyyy mm) 2023 05 2021 06 2021 06 2021 06 2021 06 2021 06 1971 04
Start to Bottom (# months) 2 17 17 17 17 17 4
Bottom (yyyy mm) 2023 06 2022 10 2022 10 2022 10 2022 10 2022 10 1971 07
Bottom to End (# months) 4 16 16 16 16 16 9
End (yyyy mm) 2023 10 - - - - - 1972 04
Longest Drawdown Depth (%)
same as
deepest

same as
deepest

same as
deepest

same as
deepest

same as
deepest

same as
deepest
-5.36
Start to Recovery (# months) details 33*
Start (yyyy mm) 2023 05 2021 06 2021 06 2021 06 2021 06 2021 06 2021 06
Start to Bottom (# months) 2 17 17 17 17 17 17
Bottom (yyyy mm) 2023 06 2022 10 2022 10 2022 10 2022 10 2022 10 2022 10
Bottom to End (# months) 4 16 16 16 16 16 16
End (yyyy mm) 2023 10 - - - - - -
Longest negative period (# months) details 5 36* 47 47 47 47 47
Period Start (yyyy mm) 2023 05 2021 03 2019 09 2019 09 2019 09 2019 09 2019 09
Period End (yyyy mm) 2023 09 2024 02 2023 07 2023 07 2023 07 2023 07 2023 07
Annualized Return (%) -0.57 -0.27 -0.08 -0.08 -0.08 -0.08 -0.08
Drawdowns / Negative periods marked with * are in progress
Deepest Drawdown Depth (%) -1.80 -16.94 -19.32 -19.37 -23.21 -23.21 -45.12
Start to Recovery (# months) details 9 36* 45* 109* 182* 182* 153
Start (yyyy mm) 2023 04 2021 03 2020 06 2015 02 2009 01 2009 01 1915 04
Start to Bottom (# months) 6 31 40 104 177 177 63
Bottom (yyyy mm) 2023 09 2023 09 2023 09 2023 09 2023 09 2023 09 1920 06
Bottom to End (# months) 3 5 5 5 5 5 90
End (yyyy mm) 2023 12 - - - - - 1927 12
Longest Drawdown Depth (%)
same as
deepest

same as
deepest

same as
deepest

same as
deepest

same as
deepest

same as
deepest
-42.49
Start to Recovery (# months) details 553
Start (yyyy mm) 2023 04 2021 03 2020 06 2015 02 2009 01 2009 01 1939 06
Start to Bottom (# months) 6 31 40 104 177 177 169
Bottom (yyyy mm) 2023 09 2023 09 2023 09 2023 09 2023 09 2023 09 1953 06
Bottom to End (# months) 3 5 5 5 5 5 384
End (yyyy mm) 2023 12 - - - - - 1985 06
Longest negative period (# months) details 11* 36* 60* 120* 240* 308* 625
Period Start (yyyy mm) 2023 04 2021 03 2019 03 2014 03 2004 03 1998 07 1933 02
Period End (yyyy mm) 2024 02 2024 02 2024 02 2024 02 2024 02 2024 02 1985 02
Annualized Return (%) -0.69 -5.63 -3.04 -1.90 -0.93 0.00 0.00
Drawdowns / Negative periods marked with * are in progress
RISK INDICATORS
1Y 3Y 5Y 10Y 20Y 30Y MAX
Standard Deviation (%) 2.17 2.18 1.92 1.48 1.47 1.80 3.46
Sharpe Ratio -0.49 -1.21 -0.41 -0.21 0.20 0.42 0.12
Sortino Ratio -0.77 -1.77 -0.59 -0.31 0.29 0.65 0.19
Ulcer Index 0.33 2.90 2.26 1.62 1.17 0.98 1.20
Ratio: Return / Standard Deviation 1.90 -0.13 0.54 0.58 1.10 1.68 1.28
Ratio: Return / Deepest Drawdown 4.74 -0.05 0.19 0.16 0.30 0.56 0.52
% Positive Months details 66% 44% 53% 55% 64% 69% 70%
Positive Months 8 16 32 67 154 250 1293
Negative Months 4 20 28 53 86 110 545
LONG TERM RETURNS
Inflation Adjusted:
Inflation Adjusted:
1Y 3Y 5Y 10Y 20Y 30Y MAX
Best 10 Years Return (%) - Annualized 0.87 2.50 6.01 11.72
Worst 10 Years Return (%) - Annualized 0.45 0.45 0.45
Best 10 Years Return (%) - Annualized -1.90 0.62 3.49 9.41
Worst 10 Years Return (%) - Annualized -2.08 -2.08 -4.88
ROLLING PERIODS
Inflation Adjusted:
Inflation Adjusted:
1Y 3Y 5Y 10Y 20Y 30Y MAX
Over the latest 30Y
Best Rolling Return (%) - Annualized 12.11 8.27 6.92 6.01 4.20 3.03
Worst Rolling Return (%) - Annualized -5.11 -1.26 0.32 0.45 1.55
% Positive Periods 89% 94% 100% 100% 100% 100%
SWR - Safe Withdrawal Rate (%) - 100% Success - Annualized 93.90 29.48 18.94 9.43 4.89 4.30
PWR - Perpetual Withdrawal Rate (%) - 100% Success - Annualized - - - - - 0.57
WR calculated based on initial capital | Monthly withdrawals adjusted for inflation | Credits: BestRetirementPortfolio.com
Best Rolling Return (%) - Annualized 9.46 5.61 4.50 3.49 1.81 0.48
Worst Rolling Return (%) - Annualized -12.30 -6.64 -3.31 -2.08 -0.99
% Positive Periods 53% 51% 57% 67% 76% 100%
SWR - Safe Withdrawal Rate (%) - 100% Success - Annualized 93.90 29.48 18.94 9.43 4.89 4.30
PWR - Perpetual Withdrawal Rate (%) - 100% Success - Annualized - - - - - 0.57
WR calculated based on initial capital | Monthly withdrawals adjusted for inflation | Credits: BestRetirementPortfolio.com
Over all the available data source (Jan 1871 - Feb 2024)
Best Rolling Return (%) - Annualized 25.82 17.24 15.57 11.72 9.50 8.27
Worst Rolling Return (%) - Annualized -5.42 -1.26 0.32 0.45 1.09 1.88
% Positive Periods 92% 98% 100% 100% 100% 100%
SWR - Safe Withdrawal Rate (%) - 100% Success - Annualized 88.71 26.96 14.58 7.57 3.46 2.34
PWR - Perpetual Withdrawal Rate (%) - 100% Success - Annualized - - - - - -
WR calculated based on initial capital | Monthly withdrawals adjusted for inflation | Credits: BestRetirementPortfolio.com
Best Rolling Return (%) - Annualized 30.38 17.20 16.30 9.41 8.80 6.81
Worst Rolling Return (%) - Annualized -19.03 -12.29 -11.10 -4.88 -2.61 -1.04
% Positive Periods 62% 69% 71% 73% 82% 87%
SWR - Safe Withdrawal Rate (%) - 100% Success - Annualized 88.71 26.96 14.58 7.57 3.46 2.34
PWR - Perpetual Withdrawal Rate (%) - 100% Success - Annualized - - - - - -
WR calculated based on initial capital | Monthly withdrawals adjusted for inflation | Credits: BestRetirementPortfolio.com
Terms and Definitions
  • Annualized Portfolio Return: it's the annualized geometric mean return of the portfolio.
  • Deepest/Longest Drawdown: a drawdown refers to the decline in value from a relative peak value to a relative trough. The deepest (or maximum) drawdown is the maximum observed loss from a peak to a trough of a portfolio before a new peak is attained. The longest drawdown is the period observed from a peak to the subsequent peak with the greatest duration.
  • Longest negative period: it's the maximum period for which an overall negative return has been observed.
  • Standard Deviation: it's a measure of the dispersion of returns around the mean.
  • Sharpe Ratio: it's a measure of risk-adjusted performance of the portfolio. It's calculated by dividing the excess return of the portfolio over the risk-free rate by the portfolio standard deviation. The risk-free rate here considered is the 1-3 Mth T-Bill return.
  • Sortino Ratio: another measure of risk-adjusted performance of the portfolio. It's a modification of the Sharpe Ratio (same formula but the denominator is the portfolio downside standard deviation).
  • Ulcer Index: it's a measure of downside risk that quantifies the depth and duration of drawdowns in an investment portfolio.
  • Best/Worst 10Y returns: the best and the worst 10-year return over a time frame.
  • Rolling Returns: N-year returns over a time frame, calculated over all the available data source (best, worst, % of positive returns). Each rolling period, longer than the longest negative period, yielded a non-negative minimum return.
  • Safe Withdrawal Rate (SWR): it's the percentage of the initial portfolio balance that can be withdrawn at the beginning of each month with inflation adjustment, without the portfolio running out of money in any case (money amount withdrawal).
    For instance: Your initial invested capital is 100.000$; withdrawal rate (annualized) is 4%. This means that, in the first month, you will withdraw 100.000 * 4% * 1/12 = 333.33$. The second month, you’ll withdraw 333.33$ plus the inflation monthly rate. You’ll continue adjusting your withdraw monthly for inflation.
  • Perpetual Withdrawal Rate (PWR): it's the percentage of the initial portfolio balance that can be withdrawn at the beginning of each month with inflation adjustment, preserving the original invested capital, adjusted for inflation too.

Drawdowns

A drawdown refers to the decline in value from a relative peak value to a relative trough. A maximum drawdown is the maximum observed loss from a peak to a trough of a portfolio before a new peak is attained.

SHORT TERM TREASURY PORTFOLIO
Drawdown periods
Drawdown periods - Inflation Adjusted
Data Source: 1 March 1994 - 29 February 2024 (30 Years)
Data Source: 1 January 1871 - 29 February 2024 (~153 years)
Inflation Adjusted:
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Rolling Returns

( more details)

A rolling return is a measure of investment performance that calculates the return of an investment over a set period of time, with the starting date rolling forward. This approach can provide a more accurate representation of the investment's historical performance and helps investors to evaluate the investment's consistency over time.

SHORT TERM TREASURY PORTFOLIO
Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Returns - Inflation Adjusted
Data Source: 1 March 1994 - 29 February 2024 (30 Years)
Data Source: 1 January 1871 - 29 February 2024 (~153 years)
Inflation Adjusted:
Swipe left to see all data
Rolling
Period
Worst Period
15th Percentile
50th Percentile
85th Percentile
Best Period
Latest Negative
Periods
Ann.
Return
From
To
Growth
of 1$
Ann.
Return
Growth
of 1$
Ann.
Return
Growth
of 1$
Ann.
Return
Growth
of 1$
Ann.
Return
From
To
Growth
of 1$
1Y -5.11 10/2021
09/2022
0.94$ 0.21 1.00$ 2.40 1.02$ 6.99 1.06$ 12.11 01/1995
12/1995
1.12$ 4.12 10.32%
2Y -2.67 11/2020
10/2022
0.94$ 0.42 1.00$ 2.29 1.04$ 6.54 1.13$ 9.17 10/2000
09/2002
1.19$ 0.49 8.31%
3Y -1.26 07/2020
06/2023
0.96$ 0.50 1.01$ 2.53 1.07$ 6.16 1.19$ 8.27 02/2000
01/2003
1.26$ -0.27 5.85%
5Y 0.32 05/2013
04/2018
1.01$ 0.68 1.03$ 3.16 1.16$ 5.84 1.32$ 6.92 10/1997
09/2002
1.39$ 1.03 0.00%
7Y 0.39 10/2011
09/2018
1.02$ 0.72 1.05$ 3.19 1.24$ 5.48 1.45$ 7.05 11/1994
10/2001
1.61$ 1.01 0.00%
10Y 0.45 11/2012
10/2022
1.04$ 0.98 1.10$ 2.49 1.27$ 4.88 1.61$ 6.01 04/1994
03/2004
1.79$ 0.87 0.00%
15Y 0.87 12/2008
11/2023
1.13$ 1.80 1.30$ 2.54 1.45$ 4.60 1.96$ 5.32 12/1994
11/2009
2.17$ 0.94 0.00%
20Y 1.55 03/2003
02/2023
1.35$ 1.67 1.39$ 2.90 1.77$ 3.76 2.09$ 4.20 06/1994
05/2014
2.27$ 1.63 0.00%
30Y 3.03 03/1994
02/2024
2.44$ 3.03 2.44$ 3.03 2.44$ 3.03 2.44$ 3.03 03/1994
02/2024
2.44$ 3.03 0.00%
Annualized rolling and percentiles/median returns over full calendar month periods
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Rolling
Period
Worst Period
15th Percentile
50th Percentile
85th Percentile
Best Period
Latest Negative
Periods
Ann.
Return
From
To
Growth
of 1$
Ann.
Return
Growth
of 1$
Ann.
Return
Growth
of 1$
Ann.
Return
Growth
of 1$
Ann.
Return
From
To
Growth
of 1$
1Y -12.30 10/2021
09/2022
0.87$ -2.29 0.97$ 0.50 1.00$ 4.91 1.04$ 9.46 11/2000
10/2001
1.09$ 0.93 46.42%
2Y -9.03 11/2020
10/2022
0.82$ -1.81 0.96$ 0.16 1.00$ 3.86 1.07$ 6.98 10/2000
09/2002
1.14$ -3.88 47.48%
3Y -6.64 07/2020
06/2023
0.81$ -1.47 0.95$ 0.34 1.01$ 3.71 1.11$ 5.61 06/2000
05/2003
1.17$ -5.63 48.31%
5Y -3.31 11/2017
10/2022
0.84$ -1.05 0.94$ 0.39 1.01$ 3.28 1.17$ 4.50 10/1997
09/2002
1.24$ -3.04 42.86%
7Y -2.92 03/2016
02/2023
0.81$ -1.06 0.92$ 0.76 1.05$ 3.03 1.23$ 4.45 12/1994
11/2001
1.35$ -2.43 37.18%
10Y -2.08 10/2013
09/2023
0.81$ -0.86 0.91$ 0.38 1.03$ 2.26 1.25$ 3.49 04/1994
03/2004
1.40$ -1.90 32.78%
15Y -1.61 01/2009
12/2023
0.78$ -0.36 0.94$ 0.48 1.07$ 2.12 1.36$ 2.74 12/1994
11/2009
1.50$ -1.59 31.49%
20Y -0.99 07/2003
06/2023
0.82$ -0.86 0.84$ 0.73 1.15$ 1.49 1.34$ 1.81 01/1995
12/2014
1.43$ -0.93 23.97%
30Y 0.48 03/1994
02/2024
1.15$ 0.48 1.15$ 0.48 1.15$ 0.48 1.15$ 0.48 03/1994
02/2024
1.15$ 0.48 0.00%
Annualized rolling and percentiles/median returns over full calendar month periods
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Rolling
Period
Worst Period
15th Percentile
50th Percentile
85th Percentile
Best Period
Latest Negative
Periods
Ann.
Return
From
To
Growth
of 1$
Ann.
Return
Growth
of 1$
Ann.
Return
Growth
of 1$
Ann.
Return
Growth
of 1$
Ann.
Return
From
To
Growth
of 1$
1Y -5.42 08/1895
07/1896
0.94$ 0.72 1.00$ 4.06 1.04$ 8.04 1.08$ 25.82 10/1981
09/1982
1.25$ 4.12 7.39%
2Y -2.67 11/2020
10/2022
0.94$ 1.27 1.02$ 4.12 1.08$ 7.36 1.15$ 19.29 05/1981
04/1983
1.42$ 0.49 2.04%
3Y -1.26 07/2020
06/2023
0.96$ 1.45 1.04$ 4.34 1.13$ 6.86 1.22$ 17.24 03/1980
02/1983
1.61$ -0.27 1.28%
5Y 0.32 05/2013
04/2018
1.01$ 1.52 1.07$ 4.33 1.23$ 6.58 1.37$ 15.57 09/1981
08/1986
2.06$ 1.03 0.00%
7Y 0.39 10/2011
09/2018
1.02$ 1.50 1.10$ 4.36 1.34$ 6.58 1.56$ 13.80 03/1980
02/1987
2.47$ 1.01 0.00%
10Y 0.45 11/2012
10/2022
1.04$ 1.64 1.17$ 4.42 1.54$ 6.44 1.86$ 11.72 03/1980
02/1990
3.02$ 0.87 0.00%
15Y 0.87 12/2008
11/2023
1.13$ 2.09 1.36$ 4.40 1.90$ 6.96 2.74$ 10.33 11/1978
10/1993
4.37$ 0.94 0.00%
20Y 1.09 07/1933
06/1953
1.24$ 2.34 1.58$ 4.30 2.32$ 7.27 4.06$ 9.50 08/1973
07/1993
6.14$ 1.63 0.00%
30Y 1.88 11/1933
10/1963
1.74$ 2.59 2.15$ 4.34 3.57$ 7.46 8.66$ 8.27 08/1973
07/2003
10.84$ 3.03 0.00%
Annualized rolling and percentiles/median returns over full calendar month periods
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Rolling
Period
Worst Period
15th Percentile
50th Percentile
85th Percentile
Best Period
Latest Negative
Periods
Ann.
Return
From
To
Growth
of 1$
Ann.
Return
Growth
of 1$
Ann.
Return
Growth
of 1$
Ann.
Return
Growth
of 1$
Ann.
Return
From
To
Growth
of 1$
1Y -19.03 07/1919
06/1920
0.80$ -3.90 0.96$ 1.75 1.01$ 9.41 1.09$ 30.38 06/1877
05/1878
1.30$ 0.93 37.33%
2Y -14.68 07/1918
06/1920
0.72$ -2.47 0.95$ 2.03 1.04$ 7.47 1.15$ 22.89 07/1920
06/1922
1.51$ -3.88 33.33%
3Y -12.29 02/1917
01/1920
0.67$ -2.02 0.94$ 2.15 1.06$ 7.45 1.24$ 17.20 08/1873
07/1876
1.60$ -5.63 30.23%
5Y -11.10 07/1915
06/1920
0.55$ -1.30 0.93$ 1.94 1.10$ 7.12 1.41$ 16.30 06/1873
05/1878
2.12$ -3.04 28.72%
7Y -7.07 06/1913
05/1920
0.59$ -1.47 0.90$ 1.90 1.14$ 6.63 1.56$ 14.38 05/1872
04/1879
2.56$ -2.43 25.93%
10Y -4.88 06/1941
05/1951
0.60$ -1.22 0.88$ 1.99 1.21$ 6.33 1.84$ 9.41 04/1871
03/1881
2.45$ -1.90 26.00%
15Y -3.26 07/1938
06/1953
0.60$ -0.51 0.92$ 1.90 1.32$ 5.06 2.09$ 9.32 04/1871
03/1886
3.80$ -1.59 19.89%
20Y -2.61 07/1933
06/1953
0.58$ -0.24 0.95$ 1.91 1.45$ 4.54 2.43$ 8.80 05/1872
04/1892
5.40$ -0.93 17.07%
30Y -1.04 07/1933
06/1963
0.73$ 0.28 1.08$ 1.92 1.77$ 3.49 2.79$ 6.81 04/1871
03/1901
7.21$ 0.48 12.51%
Annualized rolling and percentiles/median returns over full calendar month periods

If you need a deeper detail about rolling returns, please refer to the Short Term Treasury Portfolio: Rolling Returns page.

Seasonality

In which months is it better to invest in Short Term Treasury Portfolio?

Both the Average Return and the Gain Frequency (Win %) are useful to get an idea of what happened in the past.
For further information about the seasonality, check the Asset Class Seasonality page.
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Monthly Returns

This section provides a visual/tabular representation of the performance variability in the Short Term Treasury Portfolio over time. It illustrates the distribution of monthly returns, showcasing the range and frequency of positive and negative returns.

SHORT TERM TREASURY PORTFOLIO
Monthly Returns Distribution
Data Source: 1 March 1994 - 29 February 2024 (30 Years)
Data Source: 1 January 1871 - 29 February 2024 (~153 years)
250 Positive Months (69%) - 110 Negative Months (31%)
1293 Positive Months (70%) - 545 Negative Months (30%)
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Investment Returns, up to December 2002, have been derived using the historical series of equivalent ETFs / Assets, instead of the actual ETFs of the portfolio.
You can find additional information on extended Data Sources here.

In particular, the series derived from equivalent datasets are:
  • SHY - iShares 1-3 Year Treasury Bond (SHY), up to December 2002

Portfolio efficiency

No other portfolio in our database granted a higher return over 30 Years and a less severe drawdown at the same time.

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In the following table, you can compare the current portfolio with a list of famous portfolios. Metrics are calculated over the last 30 Years.

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