Roger Gibson Talmud Portfolio 2x Leveraged: Rolling Returns

Simulation Settings
Period: March 2010 - March 2026 (~16 years)
Initial Amount: 1$
Rebalancing: at every Jan 1st
Currency: USD
Inflation: US
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When holding the Roger Gibson Talmud Portfolio 2x Leveraged, how long should you stay invested to have high probability to achieve a positive return?

Over the selected period (~16 years), the longest duration with a negative return was 56 months (from August 2021 to March 2026). This negative serie is not closed yet.

Understanding this metric is crucial as it highlights the importance of a safe investment horizon. Knowing the minimum duration required to likely see positive returns helps investors set realistic expectations and reinforces the strategy of staying invested through market cycles. This approach can mitigate the emotional reactions to short-term market fluctuations and enhance the likelihood of achieving financial goals.

Rolling Returns

A rolling return is a measure of investment performance that calculates the return of an investment over a set period of time, with the starting date rolling forward. This approach can provide a more accurate representation of the investment's historical performance and helps investors to evaluate the investment's consistency over time.

ROGER GIBSON TALMUD PORTFOLIO 2X LEVERAGED
Annualized Rolling Returns
Annualized Rolling Returns - Inflation Adjusted
Time Period: 1 April 2016 - 31 March 2026 (10 Years)
Time Period: 1 March 2010 - 31 March 2026 (~16 years)
All Data
(2010/03 - 2026/03)
US Inflation Adjusted:

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Rolling Period Analysis

By selecting the 'Rolling Period', the chart and data will update. To study a different date range, change the simulation settings.

ROGER GIBSON TALMUD PORTFOLIO 2X LEVERAGED
Rolling Returns Chart
Rolling Returns Chart - Inflation Adjusted
Time Period: 1 March 2010 - 31 March 2026 (~16 years)
Over Time
Histogram
US Inflation Adjusted:

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Swipe left to see all data
Worst Median Best Negative Periods
-39.60%
Jan 2022 - Dec 2022
+13.63% +56.90%
Nov 2020 - Oct 2021
16.48%
30 out of 182
-43.24%
Jan 2022 - Dec 2022
+11.25% +47.72%
Nov 2020 - Oct 2021
18.68%
34 out of 182
-22.48%
Nov 2021 - Oct 2023
+14.42% +32.18%
Apr 2020 - Mar 2022
10.59%
18 out of 170
-26.50%
Nov 2021 - Oct 2023
+11.67% +26.03%
Jul 2010 - Jun 2012
13.53%
23 out of 170
-6.70%
Jan 2022 - Dec 2024
+12.55% +30.30%
Jan 2019 - Dec 2021
10.13%
16 out of 158
-10.46%
Jan 2022 - Dec 2024
+10.58% +25.81%
Jan 2019 - Dec 2021
20.89%
33 out of 158
-3.23%
Nov 2019 - Oct 2023
+12.16% +25.84%
Jul 2010 - Jun 2014
4.79%
7 out of 146
-7.47%
Nov 2019 - Oct 2023
+10.09% +23.09%
Jul 2010 - Jun 2014
19.86%
29 out of 146
+2.58%
Oct 2018 - Sep 2023
+12.14% +24.48%
Mar 2010 - Feb 2015
0.00%
0 out of 134
-1.40%
Oct 2018 - Sep 2023
+10.29% +22.51%
Mar 2010 - Feb 2015
3.73%
5 out of 134
+2.49%
Nov 2017 - Oct 2023
+11.62% +21.59%
Jul 2010 - Jun 2016
0.00%
0 out of 122
-1.21%
Nov 2017 - Oct 2023
+9.63% +19.56%
Jul 2010 - Jun 2016
1.64%
2 out of 122
+4.58%
Oct 2016 - Sep 2023
+12.34% +19.39%
Jul 2010 - Jun 2017
0.00%
0 out of 110
+1.03%
Oct 2016 - Sep 2023
+9.97% +17.41%
Jul 2010 - Jun 2017
0.00%
0 out of 110
+4.96%
Nov 2015 - Oct 2023
+12.09% +18.12%
Oct 2011 - Sep 2019
0.00%
0 out of 98
+1.64%
Nov 2015 - Oct 2023
+9.52% +16.31%
Oct 2011 - Sep 2019
0.00%
0 out of 98
+5.13%
Nov 2014 - Oct 2023
+10.84% +17.90%
Jul 2010 - Jun 2019
0.00%
0 out of 86
+2.15%
Nov 2014 - Oct 2023
+7.43% +15.80%
Jul 2010 - Jun 2019
0.00%
0 out of 86
+7.26%
Nov 2013 - Oct 2023
+10.12% +18.24%
Jan 2012 - Dec 2021
0.00%
0 out of 74
+4.36%
Nov 2013 - Oct 2023
+7.17% +15.76%
Jan 2012 - Dec 2021
0.00%
0 out of 74
+7.62%
Apr 2015 - Mar 2026
+10.52% +18.22%
Sep 2010 - Aug 2021
0.00%
0 out of 62
+4.38%
Apr 2015 - Mar 2026
+7.69% +15.86%
Jul 2010 - Jun 2021
0.00%
0 out of 62
+9.13%
May 2013 - Apr 2025
+11.00% +16.94%
Mar 2010 - Feb 2022
0.00%
0 out of 50
+6.21%
Apr 2014 - Mar 2026
+8.14% +14.34%
Mar 2010 - Feb 2022
0.00%
0 out of 50
+9.64%
Apr 2013 - Mar 2026
+11.23% +13.74%
Oct 2011 - Sep 2024
0.00%
0 out of 38
+6.71%
Apr 2013 - Mar 2026
+8.38% +10.90%
Oct 2011 - Sep 2024
0.00%
0 out of 38
+10.51%
Apr 2012 - Mar 2026
+11.87% +13.40%
Sep 2010 - Aug 2024
0.00%
0 out of 26
+7.65%
Apr 2012 - Mar 2026
+9.02% +10.48%
Sep 2010 - Aug 2024
0.00%
0 out of 26
+10.94%
Apr 2011 - Mar 2026
+12.27% +13.41%
Mar 2010 - Feb 2025
0.00%
0 out of 14
+8.07%
Apr 2011 - Mar 2026
+9.42% +10.53%
Mar 2010 - Feb 2025
0.00%
0 out of 14
+11.95%
Apr 2010 - Mar 2026
+11.95% +13.33%
Mar 2010 - Feb 2026
0.00%
0 out of 2
+9.06%
Apr 2010 - Mar 2026
+9.06% +10.46%
Mar 2010 - Feb 2026
0.00%
0 out of 2
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