Consolidated Returns as of 31 March 2024
Holding the Craig Israelsen 7Twelve Portfolio, how long should you stay invested to have high probability to obtain a positive return?
Considering all the available data source (~48 years), the longest period with a negative return lasted 73 months (from March 2014 to March 2020).
This means that every rolling period of 74 months or above has always granted a positive return.
To obtain comprehensive information, please consult the Craig Israelsen 7Twelve Portfolio: ETF allocation and returns page.
Previous vs subsequent Returns
Considering all 10-year rolling periods, is there a relationship between past and future returns, at a given date?
In the following chart, we show how past returns (x-axis) and subsequent returns (y-axis) are related.
Neighboring data is aggregated and occurrences are indicated. It is possible to zoom by clicking or drawing the desired area
The annualized return of the last 10 years has been 4.15% (updated at Mar 31, 2024).
Rolling Returns
A rolling return is a measure of investment performance that calculates the return of an investment over a set period of time, with the starting date rolling forward. This approach can provide a more accurate representation of the investment's historical performance and helps investors to evaluate the investment's consistency over time.
Annualized Rolling Returns - 1 Year (12 months)
Median | Best | Worst | Negative Periods | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Annualized Rolling Return | +10.22% |
+38.69%
Jul 1982 - Jun 1983 |
-33.99%
Mar 2008 - Feb 2009 |
16.37%
93 out of 568 |
US Inflation Adjusted | +5.92% |
+35.34%
Jul 1982 - Jun 1983 |
-33.99%
Mar 2008 - Feb 2009 |
26.94%
153 out of 568 |
Annualized Rolling Returns - 2 Years (24 months)
Median | Best | Worst | Negative Periods | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Annualized Rolling Return | +10.23% |
+27.21%
Mar 2009 - Feb 2011 |
-15.17%
Mar 2007 - Feb 2009 |
9.53%
53 out of 556 |
US Inflation Adjusted | +5.85% |
+24.54%
Mar 2009 - Feb 2011 |
-16.88%
Mar 2007 - Feb 2009 |
18.53%
103 out of 556 |
Annualized Rolling Returns - 3 Years (36 months)
Median | Best | Worst | Negative Periods | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Annualized Rolling Return | +9.52% |
+22.81%
Aug 1984 - Jul 1987 |
-7.23%
Mar 2006 - Feb 2009 |
5.15%
28 out of 544 |
US Inflation Adjusted | +5.46% |
+19.21%
Aug 1984 - Jul 1987 |
-9.21%
Mar 2006 - Feb 2009 |
13.60%
74 out of 544 |
Annualized Rolling Returns - 4 Years (48 months)
Median | Best | Worst | Negative Periods | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Annualized Rolling Return | +9.83% |
+21.14%
Jul 1982 - Jun 1986 |
-2.72%
Mar 2005 - Feb 2009 |
0.94%
5 out of 532 |
US Inflation Adjusted | +5.84% |
+17.55%
Jul 1982 - Jun 1986 |
-5.13%
Mar 2005 - Feb 2009 |
6.39%
34 out of 532 |
Annualized Rolling Returns - 5 Years (60 months)
Median | Best | Worst | Negative Periods | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Annualized Rolling Return | +10.27% |
+20.49%
Aug 1982 - Jul 1987 |
-0.15%
Mar 2004 - Feb 2009 |
0.38%
2 out of 520 |
US Inflation Adjusted | +5.74% |
+16.83%
Aug 1982 - Jul 1987 |
-2.72%
Mar 2004 - Feb 2009 |
2.88%
15 out of 520 |
Annualized Rolling Returns - 6 Years (72 months)
Median | Best | Worst | Negative Periods | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Annualized Rolling Return | +9.98% |
+17.23%
Oct 1981 - Sep 1987 |
-0.28%
Apr 2014 - Mar 2020 |
0.20%
1 out of 508 |
US Inflation Adjusted | +5.54% |
+13.26%
Jul 1982 - Jun 1988 |
-1.76%
Apr 2014 - Mar 2020 |
0.98%
5 out of 508 |
Annualized Rolling Returns - 7 Years (84 months)
Median | Best | Worst | Negative Periods | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Annualized Rolling Return | +9.52% |
+17.56%
Aug 1982 - Jul 1989 |
+0.86%
Apr 2013 - Mar 2020 |
0.00%
0 out of 496 |
US Inflation Adjusted | +6.07% |
+13.53%
Aug 1982 - Jul 1989 |
-0.65%
Apr 2013 - Mar 2020 |
0.40%
2 out of 496 |
Annualized Rolling Returns - 8 Years (96 months)
Median | Best | Worst | Negative Periods | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Annualized Rolling Return | +9.51% |
+16.83%
Aug 1982 - Jul 1990 |
+1.32%
Mar 2008 - Feb 2016 |
0.00%
0 out of 484 |
US Inflation Adjusted | +6.37% |
+12.65%
Aug 1982 - Jul 1990 |
-0.06%
Mar 2008 - Feb 2016 |
0.41%
2 out of 484 |
Annualized Rolling Returns - 9 Years (108 months)
Median | Best | Worst | Negative Periods | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Annualized Rolling Return | +9.57% |
+16.35%
Aug 1982 - Jul 1991 |
+1.54%
Apr 2011 - Mar 2020 |
0.00%
0 out of 472 |
US Inflation Adjusted | +6.52% |
+12.11%
Aug 1982 - Jul 1991 |
-0.10%
Apr 2011 - Mar 2020 |
0.21%
1 out of 472 |
Annualized Rolling Returns - 10 Years (120 months)
Median | Best | Worst | Negative Periods | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Annualized Rolling Return | +9.66% |
+16.25%
Aug 1982 - Jul 1992 |
+2.73%
Nov 2007 - Oct 2017 |
0.00%
0 out of 460 |
US Inflation Adjusted | +6.56% |
+12.08%
Aug 1982 - Jul 1992 |
+0.44%
Nov 2013 - Oct 2023 |
0.00%
0 out of 460 |
Annualized Rolling Returns - 11 Years (132 months)
Median | Best | Worst | Negative Periods | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Annualized Rolling Return | +9.62% |
+16.02%
Aug 1982 - Jul 1993 |
+2.27%
Jan 2008 - Dec 2018 |
0.00%
0 out of 448 |
US Inflation Adjusted | +6.73% |
+11.94%
Aug 1982 - Jul 1993 |
+0.62%
Jan 2008 - Dec 2018 |
0.00%
0 out of 448 |
Annualized Rolling Returns - 12 Years (144 months)
Median | Best | Worst | Negative Periods | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Annualized Rolling Return | +9.59% |
+15.16%
Mar 1982 - Feb 1994 |
+1.79%
May 2008 - Apr 2020 |
0.00%
0 out of 436 |
US Inflation Adjusted | +6.64% |
+11.17%
Aug 1982 - Jul 1994 |
+0.19%
Apr 2008 - Mar 2020 |
0.00%
0 out of 436 |
Annualized Rolling Returns - 13 Years (156 months)
Median | Best | Worst | Negative Periods | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Annualized Rolling Return | +9.81% |
+14.76%
Apr 1980 - Mar 1993 |
+2.24%
Apr 2007 - Mar 2020 |
0.00%
0 out of 424 |
US Inflation Adjusted | +6.90% |
+10.75%
Aug 1984 - Jul 1997 |
+0.45%
Apr 2007 - Mar 2020 |
0.00%
0 out of 424 |
Annualized Rolling Returns - 14 Years (168 months)
Median | Best | Worst | Negative Periods | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Annualized Rolling Return | +9.95% |
+14.68%
Jul 1982 - Jun 1996 |
+2.82%
Apr 2006 - Mar 2020 |
0.00%
0 out of 412 |
US Inflation Adjusted | +6.82% |
+10.82%
Jul 1982 - Jun 1996 |
+0.95%
Apr 2006 - Mar 2020 |
0.00%
0 out of 412 |
Annualized Rolling Returns - 15 Years (180 months)
Median | Best | Worst | Negative Periods | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Annualized Rolling Return | +10.07% |
+14.84%
Aug 1982 - Jul 1997 |
+3.07%
Jun 2008 - May 2023 |
0.00%
0 out of 400 |
US Inflation Adjusted | +6.78% |
+11.09%
Aug 1982 - Jul 1997 |
+0.74%
Jun 2008 - May 2023 |
0.00%
0 out of 400 |
Annualized Rolling Returns - 16 Years (192 months)
Median | Best | Worst | Negative Periods | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Annualized Rolling Return | +9.86% |
+14.44%
Feb 1978 - Jan 1994 |
+3.11%
Nov 2007 - Oct 2023 |
0.00%
0 out of 388 |
US Inflation Adjusted | +6.61% |
+10.29%
Oct 1981 - Sep 1997 |
+0.66%
Nov 2007 - Oct 2023 |
0.00%
0 out of 388 |
Annualized Rolling Returns - 17 Years (204 months)
Median | Best | Worst | Negative Periods | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Annualized Rolling Return | +9.88% |
+14.01%
Nov 1976 - Oct 1993 |
+3.86%
Nov 2006 - Oct 2023 |
0.00%
0 out of 376 |
US Inflation Adjusted | +6.55% |
+9.84%
Jul 1982 - Jun 1999 |
+1.32%
Nov 2006 - Oct 2023 |
0.00%
0 out of 376 |
Annualized Rolling Returns - 18 Years (216 months)
Median | Best | Worst | Negative Periods | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Annualized Rolling Return | +8.72% |
+13.72%
Jan 1976 - Dec 1993 |
+4.36%
Oct 2005 - Sep 2023 |
0.00%
0 out of 364 |
US Inflation Adjusted | +6.10% |
+10.07%
Jul 1982 - Jun 2000 |
+1.86%
Oct 2005 - Sep 2023 |
0.00%
0 out of 364 |
Annualized Rolling Returns - 19 Years (228 months)
Median | Best | Worst | Negative Periods | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Annualized Rolling Return | +8.87% |
+13.66%
Feb 1978 - Jan 1997 |
+4.76%
Nov 2004 - Oct 2023 |
0.00%
0 out of 352 |
US Inflation Adjusted | +6.15% |
+9.48%
Oct 1981 - Sep 2000 |
+2.16%
Nov 2004 - Oct 2023 |
0.00%
0 out of 352 |
Annualized Rolling Returns - 20 Years (240 months)
Median | Best | Worst | Negative Periods | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Annualized Rolling Return | +8.99% |
+13.62%
Oct 1977 - Sep 1997 |
+4.91%
Apr 2000 - Mar 2020 |
0.00%
0 out of 340 |
US Inflation Adjusted | +6.19% |
+8.90%
Jul 1982 - Jun 2002 |
+2.59%
Mar 2004 - Feb 2024 |
0.00%
0 out of 340 |
To obtain comprehensive information, please consult the Craig Israelsen 7Twelve Portfolio: ETF allocation and returns page.